Quick links

I've got too many links to post on Twitter, so here goes:

Riggleman thinks a decision on the Nats' managing job is coming soon. [Ladson's Blog]

MASN's Phil Wood thinks the Nats should (and could) make a run at Rich Harden. [MASN]

The Hardball Times takes a look at Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria in "Clone Wars" [THT]

FanGraphs gives a short 2009 minor league review of the Nats: Zimmermann, Nieto, Perez, Norris and Smiley. [FanGraphs]

Ronnie Belliard, Felipe Lopez, Joe Beimel and Nick Johnson are all type B free agents. Those sandwich picks would have been nice... [The Biz of Baseball]

2010 Roster Building-First Basemen

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is First Base. Follow along with the series here.

FIRST BASEMEN

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Adam Dunn and Mike Morse

Other possibilities in the organization: Josh Willingham, Daryle Ward, Brad Eldred

The ideal situation in my opinion is for Josh Willingham to be named the starting 1B from day 1 (in Spring Training, that is). I do believe, athletically, he is better suited as the better long-term option for the Nats at 1B. If he can't cut it, it won't hurt to shift Dunn back, but I do wholeheartedly think Willingham can be an above-average defender at 1B. I picked Morse because of his ability to play multiple positions (although none of them very well) and hit at the ML level (despite little success in 10 plate appearances to date this year, he's still a .297/.360/.394 career hitter in the majors). I expect him to be our Ronnie Belliard in 2010. I doubt Ward and Eldred will be back, but there is always a possibility...

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): A slight, slight, ever so slight possibility could be Chris Marrero. I do not advocate rushing him to the bigs, as he only has 50 plate appearances against AA pitching. If he has a strong showing in Spring Training and throughout the first few months in Harrisburg and Syracuse, I could see him showing up in DC around the all-star break, especially if the team plans on moving Dunn at the deadline.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Nick Johnson. No, not all of these sleeper picks are going to be Nats re-treads, but in a thin 1B free agent class, he (and maybe Ross Gload) are the only ones I can really see making sense. Most of the free agents out there are either starters (Delgado, Thome, LaRoche) or guys who are past their prime (Giambi, Sweeney). Branyan or Stairs might be decent fits, but I would expect them to want to sign with contenders rather than the Nats.

2009 production by Nats first basemen to date: .289/.415/.459, 19 HR, 76 R, 72 RBI

2010 projection: Significantly better offensively and significantly worse defensively. Johnson is not the ace with the glove he used to be, but he's still light years ahead of the likely 2010 Nats starter Adam Dunn.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Inbox, other stuff

Before I start with the inbox, check out the Facebook group "I <3>." Coveroo has agreed to give one lucky winner who guesses Strasburg's SB closest without going over a free Nats Coveroo.

Now, for the Inbox:

Johnson was a great player and a face of the franchise, but does Aaron Thompson have a chance to make as much of an impact as Johnson?
-- David W., Potomac, Md.

It depends on what you define "as much of an impact" as. I'm pretty sure Thompson will be worth more to the Nats over the next year years than two months of NJ would have been, but at this point he's really just another pitching prospect to stockpile. My guess is he'll end up as a #4/5 starter but the same was definitely said about John Lannan a few years back!

Craig Stammen continues to struggle. They should put Tyler Clippard in the rotation and move Stammen to the bullpen. What are your thoughts?
-- Joshua, Puerto Rico

I think at this point there's no point to switch them. Clippard (admittedly in a small sample size) has only been effective against batters the first time through the lineup. And besides that, after converting him to a reliever, I don't see them reversing it anytime soon. And while Stammen has gotten hit fairly hard in his last 2 outings, I'm not willing to give up on him yet.

What options do the Nats currently have at first base now that Johnson is gone?
-- Mike B., Washington, D.C.

Over the longrun, I think it will be Willingham. He's got the athletic ability to play there. It won't be pretty at first, but after a month or so I'm sure he'll look better than Dunn/Belliard. Once September rolls around, you might see Kory Casto, Mike Morse, Joel Guzman or Jorge Padilla there, depending on how the 40-man roster looks.

How does a player fail a physical for the Nationals and become an All-Star for the Dodgers? I'm talking about Hudson.
-- Peter R., Vancouver, BC Canada

He. Was. Not. Healthy. Enough. To. Give. A. Contract. To. Not sure how this is so hard for people to understand. It is never a good idea to sign someone who fails a physical. Get over yourself and hope they can sign him this offseason.

It has been stated a few times that the Nats will be looking for a shortstop in the offseason, and that Cristian Guzman's defense has become suspect. Were the Nats shopping Guzman before the Trade Deadline?
-- Frank H., Washington, D.C.

I hope so.

Some other links:

Jon Heyman had a few Nats-related snippets today. Don't mistake me for Heyman fan, because I'm surely not...just passing info along.

1-Dunn is likely to clear waivers, Villone might, Willingham won't.

2-Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and Dodgers GM Ned Colletti both have expiring contracts and could be targets for the Nats' GM job in the offseason. Other potential targets could include former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn, Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings and Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. Heyman notes that Hunsicker and Hahn aren't locks to accept a job if it is offered.

Daniel Cabrera signed with the Diamondbacks and Corey Patterson signed with the Brewers. Pity their fans.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

Some things to think about

First of all, I don't think the combination of Elijah Dukes/Jesus Flores hitting the DL is the reason for Dunn's sudden sputtering. It's not like he could keep up his 1.100 OPS pace all year. This is baseball, and you can't blame every slump on something. Even the best of the best fail between 6 and 7 times out of 10.

Concerning Nick Johnson-I agree with FJB wholeheartedly. Don't. Overpay. For. Relief. Pitching. Yeah, our bullpen sucks. But in both our 2009 plan (the plan in which our infield doesn't get 4000 throwing errors due to Dunn at 1B) and our long-term plan (Delcarmen is arbitration-eligible after this season and will hit FA after 2012), the deal wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Trading him for a reliever is the last thing we should do-get some high risk, potentially high reward prospects for him (or fleece somebody out of some low risk, high reward prospects) and do with that. It's really not worth it for us to try and make a "patch" when there is no feasible way for us to compete in 2009.

And nobody wants Danny Almonte, just like in 2006 when nobody wanted Jeffrey Maier. I'd tend to think it would be worth the publicity stunt come the 40th round or so, but I could be wrong.

Thursday Inbox

Before I get to the inbox, I'd like to extend my condolences to the Adenhart family, as their 22 year old son Nick, a pitcher for the Angels, was killed by a drunk driver who ran a red light last night after the rookie's 4th career start. There's a lesson to be learned: don't drive drunk. 

Here's Ladson's latest:

Although I like the outfield strengths, I think Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns should be the starting outfielders. I know Lastings Milledge is starting in center, but the other three guys seem to be more of an offensive threat. What are your thoughts?
-- Don M., Charlottetown, Canada

Ladson: "I like Dunn, but I want to see Maxwell and Roger Bernadina as the other outfielders. I've often said this: I want to see the Nationals play the kids. Washington manager Manny Acta, acting general manager Mike Rizzo and team president Stan Kasten will disagree with me, but Maxwell and Bernadina are ready. They are better than some of the outfielders they have now."

What? Maxwell and Bernadina are older than Dukes and Milledge. I think the Nats need to step up soon, though and either trade somebody or send Milledge or Dukes down because it hurt their development to not play every day.

It's not a secret the Nationals are shopping Nick Johnson, but what are they looking for in return? And is Johnson concerned about this at all?
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

Ladson: "The Nationals are looking for young starting pitching in return. As far as Johnson goes, he is not worried about being traded. All this guy wants to do is win. The Yankees spoiled him, and I can tell you he wants to win a World Series ring badly."

Works for me. I'd like for Johnson to stick around, but somebody needs to go.

I don't understand why right-hander Jason Bergmann wasn't given a shot to make the starting rotation this year?
-- Darren M., Fairfax, Va.

Ladson: "Contrary to what he thinks, Bergmann did not have a good year in 2008, and he should be considered a reliever. Just look at the numbers. I've often felt Bergmann has been in denial about the season he had. It doesn't help when a certain beat reporter tells him he should have won nine games if he had the offense and defense behind him. The record is right where it should be: 2-11 with a 5.09 ERA."

Contrary to what Ladson thinks, Bergmann is still probably the 3rd or 4th best ML-ready SP in our system. Nonetheless, he should have been given a spot on the ML roster as either a starter or reliever this year. FJB had a good take on this a few days ago.

With the Orioles letting him go, what is the Nationals' rationale in penciling Daniel Cabrera in the middle of their rotation, seemingly without any competition?
-- Jim S., Bethesda, Md.

Ladson: "It's about Cabrera's potential. This guy can throw gas and be unhittable. I think pitching coach Randy St. Claire can straighten him out. I want to see what Cabrera can do during the first half before I pass judgment."

I'm going to go out on a limb and say probably at least half of pitchers who have thrown in the majors can throw gas and be unhittable. That's very unscientific, but Cabrera has already had 5 years to prove his potential in the majors and has gotten worse as time has gone on. 

With the relative success of rejuvenating pitchers, is there any possible interest in the Nationals acquiring Tigers left-hander Dontrelle Willis? With his stock so low right now, it seems he could be obtained for little in return and would be a low-risk investment with high-reward potential.
-- Cliff S., Springfield, Va.

Ladson: "You and I are on the same page. I think St. Claire could turn Willis around. Right now, Willis is on the disabled list, so let's see what the Tigers do once he comes off of it."

Dontrelle is a 180 from Cabrera-he had great success in the majors before blowing up in 2008. I think he can be a good ML pitcher again with the right mentor (St. Claire), but he's also apparently not all there mentally anymore. He's not worth the money at this point. If the Tigers released him and he could be acquired for next to nothing, sure, but I don't want Willis taking up 10% or more of the Nats' payroll.

Dmitri Young is several floors -- not a few steps -- below Johnson defensively. I still believe Ryan Zimmerman's throwing problems are a result of playing a year with Young at first base. When you know you have to throw a strike to first base, it puts a lot of undue pressure on you as a fielder. Also, Young is not a couple of steps above anyone as a first baseman.
-- Richard A., Annapolis, Md.

Ladson: "As far as Young goes, I've seen worse first basemen. Give Young a break. I agree he is not a Gold Glover out there, and he won't be at first base as long as Johnson is healthy."

No, Young is TERRIBLE defensively. You haven't seen worse first basemen except for maybe Adam Dunn, but at least he hits 40 homers.

Wow, Ladson was really off today, even more so than usual.

Sunday Inbox

Ladson's at it again! Inbox time!

I've been a fan of Hill's since he made his debut with the Expos in 2004. I don't understand why the Nationals released a man with his great work ethic. The team has had patience with first baseman Nick Johnson. I think you will agree Hill had tremendous upside.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

To be honest, Hill's time was up with up. He might be a great pitcher somewhere else, but we just couldn't count on him anymore. The team was better off moving on, in my opinion.

How is Johnson looking this spring?
-- Lou L., Sacramento, Calif.

Numbers are decieving (and pretty much pointless in Spring Training), but from what I've heard so far, Nick the Stick is looking decent. Here's to hoping he can play 130 games this year.

Do you think that the Nationals are going to miss Perez? Last year, he ate up a lot of innings and had a decent ERA. I never understood why the Nats didn't reward him with a Major League contract.
-- Phil I., Rockville, Md.

No. He was league average, yes, but they have a lot more pitchers this year capable of doing so. And I don't think it's good to have 3 LHP in the rotation, either. Olsen is his replacement, and at least Olsen has upside.

You said recently to not get ahead of ourselves when talking about right-hander Steven Strasburg -- but how can we not? He is the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior, and we have the No. 1 pick. Are you saying the Nats aren't going to pick him?
-- Michael S. Richmond, Va.

Look at what you just said..."the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior." Remember what happened to Mark Prior? Don't get ahead of yourself, there is no such thing as a known quantity in college baseball (or really in any kind of baseball).

Right-hander Jason Bergmann has yet to give up an earned run. I think he is really making a case to make the team and showing how much he wants to stay in the Majors. What are his chances?
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll make the team as a middle reliever...a 75% chance.

Is Jesus Colome still alive in the competition to make the bullpen? You don't have his name listed on the depth chart.
-- Joseph M., Westwood, NJ

Also a 75% chance. For both of them, we'll see them anyways so it's not a huge deal if they don't make the initial Opening Day roster.

I would like to see the Nationals hire Frank Howard as a hitting coach. Is this possible?
-- Alan N., Washington D.C.

As a hitting coach, no. He should be hired somewhere in the system, but  not as the hitting coach. Think "special instructor" type roles. Team Ambassador? Something like that?

Sunday Inbox

2 in 4 days, hooray! It's Ladson time.

Should the Nationals hold on to right-hander Shawn Hill? Will outfielder Elijah Dukes have a big year? Those are two of the many questions Nats fans want to know during Spring Training. Here are answers to some of those questions.

With Hill constantly getting hurt as a starter, wouldn't it be ideal for him to be moved to the bullpen? I hear he has great stuff, but his lack of endurance scares me. 
-- Rafael B., Miami

Yes. Yes, yes, yes, yes, YES. Or does moving Hill to the pen just make too much sense?

I'll keep saying it again and again. When are the Nationals going to wake up and smell the coffee concerning Hill? He is injured far too often. I think there are a couple of young pitchers in the organization that would do much better than him. 
-- Jorge T., Springfield, Va.

I'll meet you halfway. Hill is worth keeping around. It's worth taking a chance that he'll one day get healthy because when healthy, he's not just good, he's really good. But what the team needs to do is stop expecting him to be healthy, because he's not. Consider him Nick Johnson-enjoy his 1/4 of the season while it lasts.

If first basemen Chris Marrero and Nick Johnson continue to have good springs, would that affect how the Nats think about Johnson's future with the club? 
-- Brett L., Washington, D.C.

With his injury last year, Marrero is really nowhere near ML-ready. I can see Johnson being dealt, but instead of rushing Marrero to the bigs, Dunn or Willingham would shift to 1B.

Do you think the Nats will eat the salaries of Dmitri Young and Austin Kearns in an effort to keep the best players on the roster? I think the bench looks much better with Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard, Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina and Wil Nieves. 
-- Chris O., Ashland, Va.

Dmitri's not going to be on the bench, so to be honest that doesn't have any effect here. I wish people would actually give Kearns a chance instead of considering his 2008 season extreme and uncharacteristic suckitude  rather than caused by injury suckitude.

Don't you think they should keep Young and put him on the bench? I think he would be a great pinch-hitter. 
-- Michael B., Epsom, N.H.

They are keeping Young, but he isn't close to being healthy enough right now to be worth a roster shot.

As a season-ticket holder, I watched Dukes improve his hitting during the latter half of the season. He developed a keen eye for the strike zone and seldom swung at bad pitches. I believe he will draw a lot of walks and be one of the best hitters on the team this year. What is your take? 
-- Charles K., Va.

I like you, Charles K. Glad to see some good insight here as opposed to "I LIKE ______________ LET'S START HIM!!!" or "KEARNS SUCKS!!!!!1!!!"

Can we expect to see President Barack Obama throwing out the first pitch at the home opener? 
-- Michael L., Williamsburg, Va.

Don't expect it, but be pleasantly surprised if he does. He's a sports fan so I think he will throw out a home opener, but could you blame him for throwing it out for the White Sox, his favorite team?

Are the Nats interested in free agent Will Ohman? They need bullpen help, and he is a young lefty. 
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

"I see the Nationals making a trade to improve their bullpen."-Ladson

That's dangerous in my opinion. Ohman could be had for ~$1 mil. We would have to give up a prospect to get a lefty, so why not spring an extra $500k or so to get a player without having to give one up.

Ladson's Inbox

I guess big Bill has been saving questions up, so here's the second "Inbox" of the week!

 

With the glut of outfielders on the roster, who do you think has the best chance of getting traded? -- Derek C., Ottawa, Canada

Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns because they're an

yone else's for the taking. If either has a strong ST, I could see them being dealt (as in someone actually wanting them). Willie Harris, Lastings Milledge and Josh Willingham are all possibilities, too.

Was Dunn a Type A free agent, and did the Nationals have to give up a Draft choice for signing him? -- Phil L., Hershey, Pa.

(Ladson's answer): Dunn was not a Type A free agent because the D-backs didn't offer him arbitration. That means the Nationals will not lose a 2009 Draft pick.

(my addition): Imagine if they HAD offered him arbitration. We could have gotten him for like $3 mil a year.

With the addition of Dunn, do you think Ryan Zimmerman will have a breakout year in 2009? -- James C., Washington

(Ladson's answer): Here's what I think Zimmerman will do this season: .290 with 30 home runs and 110 RBIs.

Seriously? I love Zim, but he's not a 30 HR hitter. Put me down for .290, 25 HR, 45 doubles and 100 RBI. And I will not attribute this to Dunn for the most part, but rather to Zim's continued development.

What is the status of Dmitri Young? I can't find any information on him anywhere. -- Steve D., Hayden, Ind.

Via Facebook: 

Why aren't the Nationals trying to sign a pitcher like Pedro Martinez? He's at the end of his career, yes, but he could help the younger pitchers improve. 

-- David P., Boucherville, Quebec, Canada

I think signing Pedro would be a great addition-theres's no reason to believe he's got nothing left in the tank. More of an issue on injuries.

 

Everything I have been reading has Mike Hinckley set to be the main left-hander out of the bullpen. What does this mean for Mike O'Connor? 
-- Paul M., Vienna, Va.

O'Connor has been terrible in the majors. Do you really want him back?

You have mentioned that the organization is content with Harris as a reserve. If that's the case, who do you see as the leadoff hitter? 
-- Eddie T., New York

How the lineup should go:

Guzman-6
Johnson-3
Zimmerman-5
Dunn-7
Dukes-9
Milledge-8
Flores-2
Belliard/Hernandez/Harris-4

If Harris is starting, put him leadoff and move Guzman down to 8th.

If Johnson starts this season and is healthy and plays at the expectations people thinks he can, will he be back in 2010? 
-- Juan F., Alexandria, Va.

That's a good question. I would tend to doubt it. I expect the Nats to put Dunn at 1B long-term (as in 2010).

 

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Tuesday Thoughts

First of all, I'm disappointed we didn't sign Ray Durham. I wouldn't waste a penny on a bet with 1000 to 1 odds saying Anderson Hernandez will be "good" this year. I might consider "league average" but even that would be a push. Belliard is nice, but Durham is better.

It's good to see guys getting to Viera early. Among the list of early arrivals (from Nats Journal): Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young (who apparently is lookin' good), Scott Olsen, Jason Bergmann, Ross Detwiler, Steven Shell, Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock. I'd like to see guys like Flores, Kearns and Pena get there early to get some extra work in, but it's extremely early for hitters to show up.

Last in the order of business-anyone want to start a Natmosphere fantasy baseball league? I'm in, and FJB and I better not be the only excited ones!

Monday Night Special

I was out all day, so here's your Monday Mailbag, available to you for breakfast on Tuesday Morning (or for a midnight snack to you night owls)

What is the point in wasting money on a pitcher like Daniel Cabrera, who has a career ERA over 5.00 and did not win more than 10 games in the past four seasons? What am I missing here?
-- Alex C., Montreal

You're missing the fact that he has so much "upside" and "potential."

Sarcasm aside, you can't be a successful pitcher in the ML if you give up an abnormal amount of hits AND walks. The amount of hits allowed are pretty hard to change, so he'll have to lower his walks to be worth it. Looks like JimBow made another stupid move...he's the pitching equivalent of Nook Logan. A change in scenery will supposedly benefit Cabrera...yeah, just like a change in scenery benefited Jose Vidro.

Why haven't the Nationals given third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, the team's most respected player, the contract he deserves?
-- Eileen S., Arlington, Va.

It's been a while since I've really paid attention to the subject, but last I saw Zimmerman wanted to be paid like so-and-so player and the Nats wanted to pay him like Troy Tulowitzski. Problem is, both players (forgive me for forgetting Zim's "comparable") were in completely different situations when they signed those contracts, either in the number of years of team control left or in actual performance. So without a precedent, these things will take time. Be patient, I have full faith that Zimmerman will be around past his final arb-eligible year.

A leadoff hitter has always been a problem since the Nationals arrived in Washington. Is free-agent second baseman Orlando Hudson on the radar?
-- Rogers C., New Carrollton, Md.

Oh goodness, I hope so. Imagine what this team could do if they signed Hudson, Dunn and a starter like Randy Johnson. Trade Milledge for a young pitcher and you have a team that might actually be able to compete.

What is Elijah Dukes' future with the Nationals?
-- Phyllis D., Tampa, Fla.

His future with the Nationals coincides with his future in professional sports. If he stays out of trouble, he's ours for a long time, and he will be a force. I am not afraid to go out on a limb and say Elijah Dukes will be in the Hall of Fame if he stays out of trouble.

I know Wily Mo Pena is back because he exercised his player option, but with so many outfielders, what do you think the team is going to do with him?
-- Dan H., Aspen Hill, Md.

He'll befriend Riggleman on the bench, I suppose.

I know the Nationals have a lot of young talent. Which Minor Leaguers do you see battling for a Major League job?
-- Austin D., West Hartford, Conn.

Zimmermann, Balester, Atilano, Martin, Mock, Montz and maybe Bernadina/Maxwell if an OF is dealt.

Don't forget that it wasn't Nick Johnson's fault that he fractured his leg in 2006. He crashed into his own player. He should be back at full strength in 2009. I wouldn't give up on him. He has heart. He's working out every day to be stronger and ready to resume his position. He'll recover from the torn sheath in his right wrist just as he did with the fractured leg. The Nationals should save themselves $160 million dollars and put it where it's needed: pitching.
-- Johnson J., Sacramento, Calif.

Ladson was right on one part and wrong on the other. Johnson gets hurt almost every year. It's usually a "freak injury", but his injuries simply never heal quickly. Simple injuries that take other players a few days or weeks to recover turn into weeks or months for Johnson. Which is where Ladson made his wrong point. I'll just point you to FJB for the explanation for the "Johnson and David Ortiz had the same injury" dealio.

Is there any chance that the Nats will go after Willy Taveras? He steals bases and can play the outfield.
-- Dalton C., Olympia, Wa.

God help us if they do. With Wil Nieves, Wily Mo Pena and Willie Harris, we have enough Wils as it is.

That's all for this week. Feel free to drop by my new blog, Decision-A-Day if you get a chance.

Rough decision

It came down to studying for my Civil War final tomorrow and doing the mailbag. Tough call. So without further ado, here's your mailbag!

Why would the Nationals non-tender a guy like right-hander Tim Redding, but offer a contract to an injured pitcher such as Shawn Hill?
-- Ross B., Highland, Md.

Hill is a better pitcher than Redding, hands down. Redding was going to cost twice as much as Hill. It depends on what you want-180 mediocre innings or a gamble between probably 50 and 150 excellent or mediocre innings. I like the gamble.

Should the Nats give up on first baseman Nick Johnson because he gets injured every year? I could definitely see the Athletics or Giants come calling in a hurry.
-- Brian F., Sacramento, Calif.

I love Nick. He's a tremendous player and has so much value to the team, putting up the two best individual seasons (according to FJB, at least) in Nationals history in 2005 and '06. But he's been the least valuable player for the last two years, with 38 games played. We just can't afford to count on him anymore, I'm sorry. If there is decent interest in him, trade him. If not, hold on to him, let him build up his value, and then play it by ear from there.

In one of the previous mailbags, you said that Wily Mo Pena is recovering from shoulder surgery and should be ready for Spring Training. But is there any real need for the Nationals to keep him? It seems like they have an abundance of outfielders and Pena wasn't very productive last year.
-- Kristen L., Rockville, Md.

"There isn't a need for Pena. But you have to remember one thing: the Nationals declined a $5 million club option on Pena, who subsequently exercised a $2 million player option for the 2009 season last October." Thank you, Bill.

Any chance the Nationals would sign Dunn to play first base?
-- Fritz S., Rockville, Md.

Well they sure wouldn't signing him to play shortstop...

With Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero gone, who will be the Nationals' closer in 2009?
-- Rodney B., Greer, S.C.

Hanrahan. Don't believe the Fuentes BS...Mr. Lerner must have naked pictures of Ladson to get him to print that.

I know the Nationals don't plan on spending much money on pitching this offseason, so what do you think about bringing Livan Hernandez back? He might not be the best pitcher in the league, but he is a free agent and, if nothing else, he's an innings-eater.
-- Will R., Rose Haven, Md.

If we don't keep Redding at ~$2 mil, we will not bring Livo back at anything more than a minor league deal with a ST invite.

That's all there is...kinda a dissapoingly lame mailbag. Step it up with your questions, blogosphere!

One other note-the live chat with Jim Bowden is tomorrow at 11 am. I will be at work then, but enjoy! I'd appreciate it if someone asked Jim how the complexion of the game would change if trading draft picks were allowed, so if anyone is around the computer and wants to ask, they get an A+ for the day!

Mailbag

Ladson was a little late posting it today so I didn't get to it before class. Here we go!

If they sign a first baseman like Mark Teixeira, what are the Nationals' plans for Nick Johnson? 
-- Don T., Milwaukee

Start him and bench Teixeira, durrrrrrr. But in reality, I think we'd ship him off to an AL team who can DH him (Oakland has reportedly been interested and I could see the Yankees in on him if they lose on Tex).

Knowing the Nationals had one of the worst ERAs in the National League last year, would you rather get a high-priced slugger or a pitcher? 
-- Matt S., Farmingdale, N.Y.

I'd rather have a good pitcher than a good slugger but at the same time I'd rather have a high-priced slugger than a high-priced pitcher, if that makes sense. I think with a slugger you're more likely to get production in the latter years of those big contracts.

Given the glut of outfielders on the Nats' roster, do you see one of them possibly moving to first base? 
-- Chris W., Woodbridge, Conn.

Willingham is the only one I can see moving to 1B. Kearns and Dukes are too valuable defensively in the outfield and I don't think Milledge or Pena could handle 1B.

Did Ryan Wagner re-sign with the Nationals after electing free agency? 
-- Kristen H., Alexandria, Va.

Yes. Info was cloudy on this at first, but Baseball America seemed to have confirmed it a while ago. Funny how a certain Nationals.com reporter never said anything about it...

I would like to see the Nats sign Pedro Martinez to a one-year deal. Although he has been hurt often, Martinez has shown he can be dominant at times. I also think he could be a good mentor for Collin Balester or Jordan Zimmermann. What are your thoughts? 
-- Eric R., Shullsburg, Wis.

I wholeheartedly agree with this idea. Sign 2 pitchers with injury risks-Pedro and Ben Sheets. Between the two of them, you might get 300 innings of Cy Young pitching. Or you might get 100. Money is the only risk, but these guys come at a discount. These are the types of moves that we need to be making-take chances on guys with immense talent and hope that they stay healthy. The difference would be that we would (probably for the first time ever) have decent plan B's if these guys go down with injuries. We have several capable starters already: Balester, Redding, Lannan, Bergmann, Zimmermann, Olsen, Hill Martis, etc. but It's safe to say Sheets and Pedro would be 1-2. That would leave us with probably Lannan, Olsen and Balester, with Redding as a long reliever, Bergmann put in the pen where I think he belongs, Hill on the DL and Zimmermann and martis with more time in AA/AAA. EDIT-I forgot about Randy Johnson. I wholeheartedly support signing him.

Why not put Ronnie Belliard at first base? In limited time, he has put up decent offensive numbers. 
-- Andy S., Fairfax, Va.

He's not tall enough, simply put.

Do you see the Nats trying to sign any veteran starting pitchers? 
-- Andy S., Fairfax, Va.

"Yes, I do. Who that is, I don't know." Answer of the year, Ladson. Ideally, as I said, the Nats would bring in Pedro and Sheets. I think a retread like Mike Hampton is more likely, however (although his lefthandedness might keep the Nats from doing so...any ideas on another guy? I had a list at some point that I'll dig for). EDIT-Hampton signed with the Astros, so we really will need to look elsewhere.

What's Wily Mo Pena been up to this offseason? 
-- Dan D., Washington

He's gotten as many hits this offseason as he did last season, that's for sure.

"A couple of weeks ago, general manager Jim Bowden told the local media that Pena is slowly recovering from shoulder surgery and it has prevented him from playing winter ball this offseason. Pena is expected to be ready for Spring Training, however."-Ladson

Do you think Ian Desmond has a chance to become the Nationals' regular shortstop in two years? 
-- Gary G., North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

No. He can't hit. I'm done being optimistic with this guy...until he can prove me wrong (a la Mike Hinckley), I'm sticking to my gut and saying no, Ian Desmond will never be a starting shortstop in the major leagues.

Mailbag time!

Our favorite time of the week-Mailbag time!

Don't you think it's time to move on at first base? Dating back to his days with the Yankees, Nick Johnson gets hurt every year. He's good when he does play, but you can't keep a player just for that reason.
-- Ed K., Harrisonburg, Va.

Johnson is an excellent hitter. Until he proves he can be healthy again, however, I'm not counting on him. Go get Adam Dunn and bring back Nicky J as a pinch-hitter.

Any chance of the Nationals acquiring Adam Dunn?
-- Pam R., Cincinnati

Power hitter? Check
High OBP? Check
First Baseman? Check
Former Red? Check
It can (and probably will) happen.

If you were the general manager of the Nationals, what moves would you make?
-- Brian W., Washington, D.C.

I would stop throwing $1-5 mil at crappy FA's (Lo Duca, Mackowiak, Estrada, etc.) and spend it all on Adam Dunn. I would sign a reliever (Juan Cruz) and a starter (Oliver Perez). The team would still be young, as all 3 of these guys are 30 or younger. Let the kids play, but give them a few bigger kids to help them out.

I know it's hard to translate Minor League stats to the Major League level, but do you feel the Nats have any potential superstars in the Minors? I've seen Michael Burgess, Chris Marrero, Justin Maxwell and Roger Bernadina play, and I'm not really sold on any of them. All have talents but none seem to be franchise type players. May I have your thoughts?
-- Brandon P., Bethesda, Md.

There are probably 10 true franchise hitters in the minors, none of which are in the Nats organization. That's not to say these guys aren't necessarily future stars-only time will tell if Burgess can fix the hole in his swing, Maxwell can stay healthy, Bernadina can hit ML pitching and Marrero can continue to improve.

You've been covering the Nats/Expos for quite some time, so I figured I would show you my all-time Montreal lineup, since Washington hasn't been around long enough to have an all-franchise lineup. The Expos' all-time franchise lineup, to me, is: LF Tim Raines, 2B Jose Vidro, RF Vladimir Guerrero, CF Andre Dawson, C Gary Carter, SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Tim Wallach and 1B Bob Bailey. What do you think?
-- Joseph M., Westwood, N.J.

Without research, I agree with Ladson-add the Big Cat and we're fine.

What will the starting rotation look like next year?
-- Haley P., Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

John Lannan
Collin Balester
Oliver Perez
Tim Redding
Shawn Hill/Jason Bergmann/Shairon Martis/minor league FA

I read all of your mailbag questions, and none of your answers convince me that the Nationals will be any better next year. I like the coaching changes, however, the team is either full of young guys with potential or players who would be lucky to sit on the bench on any other club.
-- Alex L., New York

Is the offseason over? Has the offseason even started? Geez, there's still 5 months between now and Opening Day...the chances of the roster not changing between now and then are smaller than 0.

Have the Nats lost interest in left-hander Matt Chico? Where does he fit for 2009?
-- Bill N. Silver Spring, Md.

He fits in with John Patterson and Chad Cordero.



Unrelated note-in his predictions for where the top 50 FA end up this year, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicts the Nats land Adam Dunn and resign Odalis Perez. I can see both happening. Here's the whole list. They're more based on best fit/who is most likely to shell out money (will the Nats really do so for Dunn?) but are pretty solid predictions at first glance.

Another random update-in the article "Nationals targeting slugger to clean up" Ladson refers to Alberto Gonzalez as "Alex Gonzalez." I hadn't heard that one before...I guess he'd rather be confused with other crappy middle infielders by the same name than the former Attorney General who shares his "old" name.

Guess what time it is?

Mailbag time!

You seem sold on John Lannan as a big part of the Nats' future. I feel that he is another Jamie Moyer. What is special about Lannan?
-- Steve L., New York

Lannan is special because, like Moyer, he does a lot with not a lot of stuff. He's remarkably consistent, with ERA's under 4.37 per every month in his career and had 21 QS in 2008. Unless he proves otherwise, he is a huge part of the future.

General manager Jim Bowden has relied heavily on former Reds players. Do you think he will acquire more Cincinnati talent this offseason?
-- Steve I., Bethesda, Md.

I'm going to refer back to what I said about 3 weeks ago when I posted up "some interesting scenarios":
Signing 1 former Red: Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Corey Patterson (goodness I hope not), Paul Bako, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion, Brett Tomko (99.9% chance of happening).

I can definitely see a Sean Casey, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion or Brett Tomko signing. Not that I support them, I can see them.

EDIT: Wanted to point out 2 things:
1: Steve I. (who asks the question) calls the Cincy-turned-Nats players "talent." FAIL
2: Hendo pointed out in the comments that I didn't comment on the following statement by Ladson: "There aren't that many former Reds who played regularly on the field. As far as the position players go, you have Jose Guillen, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Dmitri Young. Pitching-wise, you have Hector Carrasco and Ryan Wagner. That's not the entire Reds roster during Bowden's time in Cincinnati." I was going to save that for later (in class right now), but I guess someone didn't put on their patient pants today!

For every former Reds player Ladson names, there are a million more that were tried at some measure in the organizaiton. You've got Brandon Larson, Brandon Claussen, Tony Blanco, Jeffrey Hammonds, Phil Hiatt, Luis Pineda, Ed Yarnall, Michael Tucker, Felix Rodriguez, Jim Crowell, Chris Booker, Josh Hall, Chris Michalak, Ray King, C.J. Nitkowski, Michael Coleman, Carlos Barega...do I need to go on? That's 23 guys in just a little bit of research time. I'm pretty sure I could come up with two more to complete the roster.

EDIT 2: Of course, Steven over at FJB is on the ball, naming a bunch of former Reds I inexplicably forgot: Wily Mo Pena and Aaron Boone round out the 25-man roster, plus you have ex-Reds Barry Larkin, Jose Rijo and Bob Boone stinking up the management.

What is the possibility of Mark Teixeira ending up with the Nationals? What kind of options do you think they have?
-- Kristen L., Rockville, Md.

I'll refer back to the same post:

Signing 1 of the following: C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Brian Fuentes (.00000000000001% chance of happening)

If any of those 6 are signed, it will be Texiera, if that is enough of a silver lining.

To be honest, when Nicky J is healthy, he is almost as productive (134 OPS+ to Johnson's 125...at probably 25% of the price). Stick with Nick and a free agent (Sean Casey and his OBP might actually be a decent pick here) and you'll get a fine 1B combo.

What are the plans for Wily Mo Pena? Is he going to play every day in 2009, or will he be traded?
-- David M., Woodbridge, Conn.

Unless he is (miraculously) traded or breaks out in Spring Training, let's hope Wily Mo gets the 2005 Tony Blanco treatment. Except for the "keep Blanco and lose a SP" part.

Everyone is talking about Anderson Hernandez and Emilio Bonifacio at second, but neither of them has the experience that Ronnie Belliard has.
-- Dustin C., Halifax, Nova Scotia

I'll stick with my prediction from last week: Bonifacio does not start the 2009 season in the majors. I bet Belliard and Hernandez start in a platoon, with Hernandez facing most lefties and Belliard facing most righties. It would be nice to get a LH bat here (although Bonifacio is seemingly decent against righties).

With the Nationals needing some power from the left side, what about signing Jason Giambi?
-- Chris H., Fountain Hill, Pa.

Not a bad idea. He couldn't be worse defensively than Dmitri. He's a bum, but we could use the offense. Big question-would he accept a PH/backup role for a non-contender?

What are Nationals going to do at catcher? I'm sure Jesus Flores will be healthy for next season, but we saw some talent in Luke Montz. With a shot at more playing time, could Montz be the No. 1 catcher?
-- Justin R., Lafayette, La.

No offense, Justin, but didn't we learn in 2008 that not starting Jesus Flores is a mistake? Montz may be a #1 catcher eventually, but he didn't prove anything in AAA or the majors. This is Montz's make-or-break year in AAA.

Stop freaking out!

I read through the comments on blog posts at Nationals Journal every day, as well as the weekly chats hosted by Chico Harlan, the Washington Post beat writer assigned to the Nats. These comments used to be all rah-rah but all of a sudden people are starting to freak out.

This semi-optimistic post came first. It sums up a lot of my feelings on the subject:

I love the game, and I love the city, and I'm willing to wait for brilliance. I'm young. If they're not the guys for the job, I'm willing to wait past Kasten and JimBow and Ted. I'll be rooting for the Nats after those men are gone, no matter what kind of team they field...If you don't find this entertaining, Tom, you're watching it wrong. I don't understand the fans who aren't happy with a pathetic disaster of a team. You know what makes me happy? Baseball. Winning is gravy...Winning's a lot more fun when you're in last place. Yes, I'd like to be at the top of the division someday. I'd like it as soon as possible. But I refuse to stop enjoying my favorite game in the world because the Nats just got swept.

Posted by: girl at work | June 19, 2008 4:30 PM


That post was lauded by plenty of the Nats Journal's readers but then called out by a handful of others:

Seriously, what is going on here? It seems to me that a lot of us around here aren't happy with this pathetic disaster of a team. And why should we be? And why are so many of you saluting a post that says we should be happy with a bunch of (unlovable) losers? These guys don't even try hard for the most part, which is what I find most offensive and which makes it impossible for me to be happy.

Posted by: Coverage is lacking | June 19, 2008 5:21 PM


Why should you be happy with this team? I can see why people are discouraged with the team, but what were your expectations? The Nats were a 71-91 team last year and were expected to be less consistent than last year (mainly because they're younger). And how do you expect a team to be anything but a "pathetic disaster of a team" when they lose their Opening Day starting pitcher, closer, first baseman, third baseman and right fielder for a significant time? The team is in a lot better shape than people thing. When our 3 best hitters (yes, Kearns IS one of our 3 best hitters. One bad month doesn't displace an otherwise good career.) return, we'll start hitting better. It's as easy as that.

Besides the commenters, there were many pessimistic (and a few outright stupid) people on the chat. Among the losers:


Silver Spring, MD: Isn't it time to just release Nick Johnson. This is for simple fairness, and will not save any money. For the last two years, Mr. Johnson has received $5M a year, essentially to heal, to be on sick leave. He was hired to play baseball games. Whoever hired Mr. Johnson for this kind of money made a huge mistake. On a game-played basis, Mr. Johnson is probably up there with ARod.

Maybe it is time to part ways.

Manassas, VA: Chico, historically Nick Johnson has not played a full season. Ever. The closest he ever came was 2006, then got hurt and missed a whole season. If he's a slow healer that means he's always healing, which means he's rarely playing.

It doesn't matter how good his batting eye is, if he doesn't get to use it.

Second the call to part ways with Nicky J.


Chico (kinda) came to the rescue, saying this: Disagree. Washington has no intention to release Johnson. None whatsoever. Johnson's only problem is that he's historically been very slow to recover from injuries. This is just the latest example. But no doubt he'll be playing again during the last months of the season. And the Nats need him. Even when his average is down, he helps the team by drawing walks and taking pitches. No way does Livan cruise through an entire game on turbo-speed if he has to face Johnson three or four times.


That doesn't take it far enough. There is absolutely no reason to give up on him for being injury-prone. He has ALWAYS produced when healthy. His average may be just average (no pun intended) but he puts up great OBP/iso SLG numbers and good fielding to boot. But this guy said it best:

Dumping Johnson: Suggesting the dumping of Johnson just because he's injured is the perfect example of why you will rarely find anyone from a MLB front office in a chatroom. Just. Plain. Idoitic.

That's all I've got. I guess we've officially found our "stupid fans," which every team has a few of. Some teams (coughBOSTONcough) just have a few more stupid fans than others.

April and May Awards

I'm going to retroactively name Nationals' team awards for the months of April and May and then name them for every month for the rest of the year.

APRIL AWARDS
Cy Young Award
With a 2.64 ERA in his 5 starts, John Lannan takes the cake here. Lannan went 2-2 over those 5 starts and allowed a .239 batting average against. He had quality starts in 4 of his 5 games. The runner up is Tim Redding, who went 3-2 over the month with a 3.55 ERA in 6 starts.

Rolaids Relief Award
Sadly, I have to give this to Luis Ayala, as he is one of the two relievers (who threw more than like 4 innings) to have an ERA under 4. When your best reliever has an ERA of 3, it obviously was a rough month. Ayala's peripherals were actually pretty awful (8 K/7 BB over 15 IP, .268 batting average against), so it wasn't too difficult to imagine his implosion of late. The Tums Relief Award (aka the runner up) goes to Jon Rauch. While Colome and Hanrahan had better ERA's (3.68 and 4.30, respecitvely, to Rauch's 4.38), Rauch had a better WHIP (1.38 to both Colome and Hanrahan's 1.64) and a better K/BB ratio (11 K/2 BB to Colome's 17/12 and Hanrahan's 19/11).

Hank Aaron Award
It's gotta be Cristian Guzman. It's sad that over a month's time, the best hitter on your team hit .294/.322/.450. Guz led the team in hits with 32 (6 more than the next best, Zimmerman) and triples (2), was second to Lastings Milledge in doubles (8 to 7) and was tied for second on the team in HR (2), behind Nick Johnson's sadly pace setting 4. He led the team in runs (13) and was 4th in RBI (8). Nick Johnson gets the runner up, because he had a higher OPS. Too bad Johnson only had a .218 batting average.

Rookie of the Year
Lannan takes the cake again. No others to consider.

Gold Glove
Nick Johnson gets the win. Month-by-month fielding stats are impossible to find, but April is the month he played in most and he has a 1.000 fld% on the year. He saved a ton (thank you BRN for permanently removing the word "numerous" from my vocabulary) of errant throws from Flop, Zimmerman and Guz as well. No runner up, because it's impossible to find April fielding stats.

Most Valuable Player
I'll give it to Nick Johnson becuase he got the runner up for the Hank Aaron and won the Gold Glove. The runner up goes to Cristian Guzman.

Least Valuable Player
It's a tossup between Jason Bergmann (11.68 ERA in 12 and 1/3 innings pitched) and Austin Kearns (.161/.278/.247 in 93 AB's). We'll give it to Kearns because he had a more sustained period of suckiness.

MAY AWARDS
Cy Young Award
Jon Rauch and Jason Bergmann compete for this award for May, as Rauch was spectacular (0.63 ERA in 14 and 1/3 innings, 7/7 saves), and Bergmann rebounded from his runner up in May's LVP award with a 1.30 ERA in 4 starts. Since Rauch's success was over a longer period of time (Bergmann was in the minors for part of the month), We'll give Rauch the win and Bergmann the runner up.

Rolaids Relief Award
Rauch runs away with it, with Joel Hanrahan getting the runner up, with a 2.66 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 and 2/3 innings pitched.

Hank Aaron Award
It's down to Ryan Zimmerman and Cristian Guzman. I'll give it to Guzman again because his numbers have less holes in them. Zim did hit .289/.319/.511, while Guzman hit .316/.339/.487. Zim's K/BB ratio was pretty bad (15 K to 3 BB) whereas Guzman's was even (4 K to 4 BB).

Rookie of the Year
Goes to John Lannan again by default, although Kory Casto gets the runner up.
Gold Glove
It has to go to Elijah Dukes. He has only 1 error for the year, and he's been very impressive in RF over the last month or so. Jesus Flores gets the runner up.

Most Valuable Player
Has to be Guzman. He hit well and fielded well enough. Runner up goes to Zimmerman again. Jesus Flores would be in the running if he had more at bats.

Least Valuable Player
Give it to Luis Ayala (6.19 ERA in 16 innings), Jesus Colome (10.13 ERA in 8 innings) AND Felipe Lopez (.234/.297/.318)! YUCK!

Another 4-6 weeks of this?

Zimmerman's out at least 4-6 more weeks. He'll get a checkup, and if he's not better, he'll have season-ending surgery on his labrum.

Per Chico Harlan at Nats Journal (link is above):

"We're not 100 percent sure that the exercises will resolve this. This is a specific exercise program that is the best in the United States proven to help avoid this surgery and get him healthy. But we're not going to know until that time."

Chico also ran down some other injury updates in the weekly chat he has:

Cordero -- just went down to Florida to start throwing more regularly. He's still about two weeks away from a rehab assignment. I'm guessing he won't be back with Washington until July.

Nick Johnson -- has a setback recently. He was supposed to get his cast removed last week, and the doctors decided he should wear it for two more weeks. Initially the team estimated 4-6 weeks. Now it's more like 6-8.

Lo Duca -- might be close. He just started a rehab assignment. The real question here is, where does he play?

Kearns -- still doing arm strengthening exercises. Once he resumes "baseball activities," the team will have a better idea. Still a few weeks away.

So we're looking at general timeframes of mid-to-late June for Lo Duca, late June-to-early July for Kearns (also fits with Ladson's "2-4 weeks" prediction), July for Cordero, the all-star break for Zimmerman and for Johnson, who knows? Throw in guys like baseball player Chico (MRI on his elbow showed loose bodies, 6 weeks of rest and rehab according to writer Chico) Wagner (throwing simulated games) for some mystery and I start to smell a sitcom.

So I'm starting to have a better feeling about the Nats' "worst lineup ever" now that we'll actually have some of our starters back (not that they were all that special in the first place).

This lineup doesn't sound all that bad to me:
Guzman-6
Milledge-8
Zimmerman-5
Johnson-3
Flores-2
Kearns-9 (he'll be at .250 by the end of the season, I guarantee it)
Dukes-7
Belliard-4
Pitcher-1

We'll hopefully have this lineup from the ASG on. I really really hope so.

But until then, what do we do? We don't really have a choice but to keep trotting out Casto, Pena, etc. But with Belliard back, we've got decent starters at 7 of 8 positions (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CF, RF). There is really no excuse for how bad this team is hitting. They'll turn it around. They better.

BERGMANNIA!!

I told you so (or hinted that Jason Bergmann deserved a second chance, one that Michael O'Connor might not get, although he probably deserves one for fighting it out in 2006 and coming back strong in the minors this year). There has been some discussion regarding whether or not Bergmann is going to be able to be a guy who can put up 6 or 7 strong innings each game. If you look at this year's numbers from his first stint in the majors this year, you'll see that he regularly imploded after the 4th inning (scroll down to "By Inning"). The problem with this, however, is that the sample size is only two starts (and three games). Looking at last year's numbers, Bergmann got somewhat stronger as the game went on. Its silly to look at his 7-9 inning stats because there were only 23 plate appearances in that timeframe, but look at Bergmann's line the third time around the lineup: .223/.286/.398 .684 OPS against. I'll take that line from any pitcher at any point in the game! So while he may have had problems going deep in his first 2 starts, I don't see this being a problem anymore. He's just not that kind of pitcher.

Other (non-BERGMANNIA!!) note: Nicky J is out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury. Up goes infielders' (mainly Zimmerman's) throwing errors, Dmitri and Boone's playing time...down goes Nicky J's trade value, team OBP, runs. This is where I really miss having Josh Whitesell on the team, as he's tearing up the PCL (and can field!!). Just like when Bowden waived Darrell Rasner to clear a spot for Matt Lecroy and shipped Jamey Carroll off to make room for Damian Jackson (or was it Royce Clayton? Either way, it makes me want to vomit), Bowden waived Whitesell to clear 40-man room for Ray King. Talk about getting value for your players (Disclaimer: Yes, I know Bowden has gotten value for his players before. I'm just saying this is not the case with Whitesell, Carroll and Rasner).