Inbox Spectacular

In what looks to be the last inbox before Opening Day, Bill Ladson discussed the team's speed, Jermaine Dye and the #5 starter situation. Here's what I have to say:

Do you like the speed the Nats are displaying on the bases this spring? I really hope to see a lot of it during the regular season.
-- Garin S., Austin, Texas

The speed isn't what is exciting for me. What I like the most is that the Nats have a bunch of guys that know how to use it. Generally speaking, you need to have a 75% rate or better for it to be worth stealing bases. Willie Harris has a 77% SB success rate with the Nats. Ian Desmond was 22/27 across all levels last year (81%). Nyjer Morgan was 24/31 with the Nats last year (77%). Willy Taveras is 194/236 (82%) over his career. Roger Bernadina has a 78% rate in his minor league career.

While guys like Taveras, Harris and Bernadina may be better off as bench/utility players, I have to give them credit; they ARE good base-stealers.

(EDIT-the Nats have stolen bases at a 79% rate in Spring Training. Nice.)

With the 25-man roster almost set, will the Nationals have a winning record this year?
--Billy P., Washington D.C.

Don't bet on it. If the Nats want a legitimate shot at a winning record, they would need to start the year with Storen and Strasburg on the big league squad in addition to signing/trading for a legitimate RF. Even if that were the case, their chances would still be slim-this team isn't quite ready to make that jump yet in my opinion. I expect them to win 72-78 wins with what they have in the system now.

After watching Matt Capps' below-average performance this spring, do you think he's the best choice for the closer role?
-- Daniel O, Centreville, Va.

Capps wasn't great, but neither were Bruney or Clippard. All three had disappointingly high walk rates and for anyone to surpass Capps on the depth chart in Spring Training, they would have needed to be lights-out. Since Bruney and Clippard couldn't do that, Capps wins by default. I won't be worried about Capps until the second or third week of April if his stats are still lackluster.

In your opinion, who should be the fifth starter and why?

-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm glad the Nats didn't go with Olsen. Spending time in Syracuse will allow him to work on his arm strength in a lower pressure environment where he (hopefully) won't rush his progress. I agree with Farid Rushdi, however, that J.D. Martin would have been a better option than Mock. I've always had a soft spot for Mock, but from a statistical standpoint I can't see why he is a better option at this point, especially since both have options left. My only guess is that the Nats see their rotation as a bunch of pitch to contact types in Lannan, Marquis, Hernandez and Stammen and they would rather have one guy who can rack up some K's than another guy who relies on his defense for outs.

When are the Nationals going to sign Jermaine Dye?
-- Jerry J., Atlanta

Not soon enough. Even though Dye is an awful defensive outfielder, he's at the very least a better platoon candidate than Willy Taveras. And I'm sure that even if he hits at an average rate (say, .250/.340/.453 like he hit in 2009), the Nats will be able to find a taker for him at the Trade Dealine.

. What do you make of Jason Marquis' struggles this spring? How worried are you?
-- Austin D., West Hartford, Conn.

I'm not worried. It's just Spring Training.

Inbox interjection, snark edition

Inbox time, boy oh boy!

I recently read about the September callups for the Nationals. I was shocked not to see Matt Chico's name on the list. I really liked him in 2007 when he was the team's most consistent starting pitcher.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

Here's a list of the Nationals' most consistent starting pitchers, year by year:

2005-Livan Hernandez/John Patterson/Esteban Loaiza-Patterson and Loaiza are out of baseball and Livan will be soon

2006-Mike O'Connor-O'Connor was last seen pitching for the Royals' AAA affiliate, his 3rd team of 2009 after the Nats and Padres. He'll likely be out of baseball soon.

2007-Matt Chico

2008-John Lannan/Odalis Perez-Perez is out of baseball

2009-John Lannan

Out of the 7 names, 3 are out of baseball and 2 likely will be soon. Not exactly great company if you ask me. Chico wasn't really very good in the first place. I don't expect to see him back.

Why didn't the Nationals call up right-hander Shairon Martis when the roster expanded? Of all the Nationals pitchers this season, he had one of the better records and should be given more serious consideration to play in the Majors.
-- Joe W., Waldorf, Md.

Innings limit...and if you use still use records to judge pitchers, please stay away from keyboards.

I understand that Mike Morse is a shortstop, but has there been any consideration about trying him out at short or second?
-- Matt D., Alexandria, Va.

Huh? I understand that Matt D. is from Alexandria, but is there any consideration about him moving to Alexandria?

Nats need to rethink Morse if they want him to play just 1B/OF.

Mets catcher Brian Schneider is a free agent after this season. Do you see him back with the Nationals as a backup catcher? He's a great defensive backstop and could help both Jesus Flores and the pitching staff as a mentor. What do you think?
-- Geoff B., Las Vegas

Please bring Schneider back. I like Bard a lot, but he's poor defensively (I'd rather have my backup catcher excel defensively and hit like Livan Hernandez than hit and field like Josh Bard). Nieves is below average. Schneider would bring stability to the pitching staff, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to have a lefthanded hitting catcher.

During the offseason, the Nationals should get better pitching for the rotation and the bullpen, but the offense is in great shape. What do you think?
-- Jonathan G., New York

Ladson: "I don't think the offense is in great shape. With Nyjer Morgan out of the lineup, this team is too slow on the basepaths. It needs more speed. It shouldn't rely on just the home run."

Well, now we know Joe Morgan's pseudonym is Bill Ladson.

I think Garrett Mock has monster stuff and deserves to be in the rotation. The same can be said about J.D. Martin, but for some reason, his stuff doesn't impress me.
-- Ryan R., Fairfax, Va.

For some reason, J.D. Martin's stuff doesn't impress me either.

Will the Nats keep Pete Orr around at least as a utilityman? I am so impressed with him. He's such a pro, and I can't help but root for him.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Are these people kidding? If today's mailbag question ran the Nats, they would be lucky not to lose 150 games.

The lineup would consist of this:

CF Nyjer Morgan

LF Willie Harris

3B Ryan Zimmerman

RF Elijah Dukes (Willingham is too slow)

SS Cristian Guzman (I feel like this is the pro-Guzman crowd)

1B Mike Morse (Dunn is too slow)

C Brian Schneider

2B Pete Orr

Nice.

2010 Roster Building-Starting Pitchers (Internal Options)

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats are Starting Pitchers. Follow along with the series here.

STARTING PITCHERS:

Internal options:

John Lannan (LHP, under team control for 2010)

Lannan is the one sure thing the Nats have. He's the only pitcher on the current 25-man roster that would be worthy of a rotation spot for a playoff team. For a rotation lacking stability, he's really the strong point.

Stephen Strasburg (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I do not believe Strasburg is Major League ready yet (subject to change after the Arizona Fall League/Spring Training). I do believe the Nats will push him into the Majors either for the start of the season or at least by the All Star Break. His other-worldly talent is well-known...let's just hope he can translate it to major league success.

Ross Detwiler (LHP, under team control for 2010)

I usually group the Nats' young starting pitchers together, but I believe Detwiler should be considered separately. Detwiler is more talented than Stammen, Martis, Balester, Mock and Martis. And while he didn't necessarily look good in his 10-start stint with the Nats this summer, he was the only one out of the six with an FIP that would look particularly desirable in a major league rotation (3.89). I have high expectations for Detwiler to put up better actual numbers next year, and for his rate stats to improve as well. If I had to name a breakout candidate for the Nats in 2010, I would go with Detwiler.

Livan Hernandez (RHP, needs to be resigned)

Call me crazy, but I believe Livan when he says he'll be better in 2010. Maybe not a whole lot better, but I could see him posting double digit wins and an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range. His FIP hasn't been lower since his memorable 2005 campaign and his K rates are back into an acceptable range. He won't break out next year, but I do think Livan can certainly be a passable #5 starter.

Garrett Mock (RHP, under team control)

Here we go, from Livan to one of the guys the Nats got for Livan back 2006. After his 2008 season, I felt like Mock was best suited as a reliever for the rest of his career, but I think he took a step forward in 2009. I don't expect him to light the world on fire next year, but I could see him continuing his progression to around a 4.50 ERA or so...not great, but acceptable.

J.D. Martin (RHP, under team control)

I'm a big J.D. Martin fan, but I don't think the Nats should count on him for the rotation next year. His FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he's been lucky this year (and not just a little lucky, either). Unless he can greatly reduce his HRs allowed and increase his K's to at least 5-6 per inning, I don't think Martin will be able to cement himself into a starting role. Long relief, sure, but not a starting role.

Craig Stammen (RHP, under team control)

Looking at Stammen's AAA and ML rate stats, his K rate has dropped at an alarming pace in 2009, from 7-8 K/9 in each level in 2008 down to 3.15 in AAA and 4.08 in the Majors. I'm guessing it has to do with his elbow issues. If that's the case, Stammen could be another breakout candidate in 2010, as he is the anti-Martin in terms of luck-his FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he was unlucky in 2009.

Shairon Martis (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I'm going to get this out of the way: I'm not a Shairon Martis believer. He walked more batters than he struck out this year and somehow earned his 5.25 ERA with a large amount of luck in terms of LOB% and BABIP. Martis is my #1 disappointment candidate for 2010. He'll still only be 23, though, so he has time to get those K rates back up. Then I'll be a believer again.

Collin Balester (RHP, under team control for 2010)

Like Martis, Balester deserved worse than his 2009 numbers. Hard to do when you have a 6.82 ERA, but he did it. Balester is a bounceback candidate for me because he has the physical tools to succeed again.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Brad Meyers

Wait, the Nats have a young pitcher who didn't regress in 2009? Believe it or not, Meyers had an awesome 2009, dominating both high-A ball and AA in about half a season in each. At both levels, he averaged at least 3 K/BB and kept the ball in the yard at an awesome rate, giving up only 3 HR all season. His semi-low innings count this year (136 and 1/3) says that he'll either be up pretty fast or not at all. He won't be a September call-up, because he'll be beyond his limit.

For the record, I do not think Matt Chico or Scott Olsen will be seen in Nats uniforms in 2010. I expect both to be non-tendered this offseason.

2009 production by Nats Starting Pitchers to date: 30-55, 5.07 ERA, 6 CG, 1 shutout, 779 and 2/3 IP, 5.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.485 WHIP

2010 projection: Better peripherals, more innings pitched, similar ERA.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Catching up, Inbox

It's been a busy week since my last post, but I can't resist a chance at poking fun at Bill Ladson! Strangely, I agree with him today....weird.

With Jim Riggleman at the helm, I was wondering if you could familiarize Nats fans with Riggleman's style of managing.
-- Dean C., Washington, D.C.

From Ladson: "Riggleman is the type of guy who will not tolerate lackadaisical effort. When Riggleman was managing the Padres, I saw him take Phil Plantier out of the game at Shea Stadium for not hustling on the bases. When he was with the Cubs, Riggleman was not afraid to get in a player's face for doing something wrong on the field.

I think we'll see Riggleman try to manufacture runs and not wait for the three-run home run. It needs to be more than just Nyjer Morgan stealing bases and bunting for base hits. The way the team is going, I believe he'll need to be innovative if he's to scratch out a few extra victories."

What are your feelings about Manny Acta being relieved of his duties as manager of the Nationals? Do you really think Riggleman can win more than 26 games with this roster during the second half?
-- Gil B., Rochester, N.Y.

The point of the move isn't to win more games this year-that doesn't matter as much. The point is so that players will continue to develop. Like Ladson said, the players weren't responding to Manny anymore. A change was needed to get these guys going towards their peak.

Do you see the Nationals signing first-round Draft pick Stephen Strasburg by the Aug. 17 deadline?
-- Craig D., Delmar, Md.

100% yes.

If the Nats cannot trade Austin Kearns by the July 31 Trade Deadline, do you think he will be released?

-- Rich R., Washington, D.C.

Doubt it. Not enough other options in the system for them to dump him-they'll keep him for his defense and dump him after the year. Makes no sense in my opinion to call up a guy like Maxwell or Bernadina (assuming health for the example) to have them sit on the bench. Don't stunt anyone's growth by stuffing them on the bench and wait to call someone up in September.

What happened to Anderson Hernandez's playing time at second base?
-- Ray U., Shrewsbury, Mass.

Gonzalez was playing well enough to warrant starting time.

Here are some of my other random thoughts:
I've been a huge JD Martin fan from the get-go when I named him #4 on my list of guys the Nats should go after out of the minor league free agent market. The Nats in the last week have done a good job rewarding guys with great recent success in AAA-Martin, Mock and Kensing. Hopefully they can get some quality innings out of them. Kudos to the Nats for finally calling up JD and to JD for sticking around so long in the minors to finally get a shot!!

Calling up Kensing is the right decision. He has never translated his minor league success to the majors to this point, but his K/BB ratio in AAA is excellent (24:5 in 25 and 1/3 innings). Considering that was a big problem in his ML stint, he's worth giving another chance to.

Felipe Lopez has been traded to the Brewers. He looks like he's been trying this year, so maybe it will work out for them.

And last but not least, a nice point by FJB on Olsen-don't mess with lats.

Sunday Inbox, because watching this game makes me want to kill myself

One quick thought: Brian Moehler??? REALLY???

Here's your inbox:

Besides John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Zimmerman, who fits in the Nationals' long-term plans?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Flores, Detwiler and Morgan jump out at me. I'm still not 100% sold on Stammen or Gonzalez, but they could easily be added to that list.

Do you think that there would be any benefit to the Nats making an offer to B.J. Ryan? He's certainly struggled this year, but he can't be any worse than what they already have?
-- Richard H., Toronto

Why not? Could he be worse than Julian Tavarez?

J.D. Martin has a pretty good record with Triple-A Syracuse. Why not bring him up to work out of the bullpen.
-- Jeff. H, Washington, D.C.

You're preaching to the choir. He'll start some games in September I bet.

Do you see the Nationals calling up Kory Casto this year? If so, at what position? I remember him playing left field, third base and some first base last year.
-- Patrick S., Fairfax, Va.

I doubt they would, and if they did it would probably be as a super-utility guy. It would be nice to have a legitimate 3B to backup Zimmerman, but I don't think Casto is that player.

I completely agree with sending outfielder Elijah Dukes down to Syracuse to work on his swing. At the same time, Dukes has 10 outfield assists, which leads all Nationals outfielders. So, on that note, do you believe that he's the long-term solution at right field, assuming he gets his swing going again?
-- Harris F., Silver Spring, Md.

I think he's in the team's long-term plans until they trade him. Up to that point, they'll play him once he heats back up.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

Thoughts on a couple of things

Now that I've got a minute (quite literally A minute...I SHOULD be studying for finals), I'll go over a few transactions the Nats have made lately:

Released RHP Jesus Colome

Can't say I'm heartbroken over this move. Yea, his ERA+ was 102, indicating he was an average pitcher. I don't disagree with that. Over the span of the year, he was average...but he was also one of the most inconsistent pitchers I've ever seen. Generally speaking, a starting pitcher's inconsistancies tend to balance themselves out over the span of 200 innings in a year. I'm not so sure that the same case can be made for relief pitchers. Colome gave up 2 or more earned runs in 15% of his appearances (9 out of 61). There are a lot better ways to spend $1 mil than on Jesus Colome. I would, however, bring him back with a minor league deal.

Signed UTIL Wee Willie Harris to a 2 year, $3 mil extension

Great move. If this works out like it should, just hope this doesn't convince Bowden that he should get back to doing this on a regular basis. Resigning Da Meat Hook, Belliard, etc. after reclamation projects was bad enough. But, back to Wee Willie-$1.5 mil for the 6th best LF in baseball (and fan favorite) is a darn good deal. I have a feeling he'll go from being the 6th best LF to being a top 10 2B, though. Great move nonetheless.

Non-tendering RHP Tim Redding

I have mixed emotions on this one.

Pros of getting rid of him: Clearing space for young guys, saving $, not much upside.

Cons of getting rid of him: OMG NO STARTING PITCHING DEPTH!!!!!!

I'm leaning toward liking this move, or at least agreeing with it. You know what you're getting with Redding: roughly 180 innings of 5-ish ERA ball. I think we can get something similar out of guys from our system, though, and not just the obvious names...I'm talking minor league FA's. This move really opens a door for J.D. Martin (and to a lesser extent, Preston Larrison) to challenge for a spot in Spring Training and I have a sneaking suspicion he'll end up on the Opening Day roster. There's my fearless prediction.

Signing a million guys to minor league deals

Here's the list:

Freddie Bynum

Brad Eldred^

Joel Guzman

Pete Orr*^

Matt Whitney^

Ryan Langerhans*^

Jorge Padilla*

Mike Vento

Bobby Brownlie*

Preston Larrison

J.D. Martin^

Ryan Wagner*^

Justin Jones*

*=With the Nats organization last year

^=moves we already knew about

Beyond the Box Score gave "one line descriptions" of all of these guys: 

"Bynum is a speed burner capable of playing decent defense in the corners. Eldred spent 2008 in the Chicago White Sox organization. Guzman went from top prospect to AAA filler within three years. Orr, Langerhans, Vento, Jones and Padilla are re-signings. Langerhans will almost certainly have zero shot at breaking into the Nationals outfield. Whitney is a former Rule 5 pick of the  Nats from Cleveland's system and martin as well as Larrison are former Indians as well."

NFA classified the Guzman signing as "A nice gamble for a team that can afford to give it a shot."

FJB hates the Guzman signing, and I can't help but disagree. The guy is being signed to play in AAA for the shot to back up Ryan Zimmerman. His OBP numbers used to be a lot better. Maybe there's something in his swing Eckstein will point out that will allow him to make better adjustments, or maybe someone in our organization can help him learn better bat control and pitch selection. While this is unlikely, he's not blocking anyone and his contract is just a minor league deal. I seriously don't see downside in this signing.