Inbox and Thoughts

I'm going to start today with this week's Inbox and move along to some other thoughts afterwards.

How good can outfielder Elijah Dukes be if he plays up to his potential?
-- Jake T., Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.
Dukes can be a perennial All-Star if he plays up to his potential. He can hit 30 HR and steal 20 bases while reaching base consistently and playing decent defense. But I do believe the likelihood of Dukes playing up to his potential is waning each year; he still hasn't proven he can hit consistently well on a major league level.

If they stay relatively healthy, are the Nationals possible playoff contenders or will they finish below .500?
-- Jeff H, Washington
Possible? Sure. Probable? No. The Nats need both health and luck to finish .500 or above.

I notice that you get a lot of heat for getting on Adam Dunn's defense. How do feel about the criticism you get for it?
-- Ken J., Washington
Ladson doesn't have anything to apologize about. Dunn's defense is below average at 1B and worse in the outfield. He has to work extremely hard to get his glove in line this year, or else the Nats could be in big trouble with Zimmerman and Desmond throwing to him at 1B.

How many at-bats do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get this season? I really think he wants to make a run at 3,000 hits, and I'm sure the Nats are aware of this.
-- Dave, New York
Wait...Ladson says “Jesus Flores will be out for quite some time after right shoulder surgery.” ACK! He'll still be out for quite some time once the season starts? If that's the case, the Nats need more than Wil Nieves and Jamie Burke to fill Flores' void.
I do agree with Ladson that the Nats need to ease Flores into things when he's healthy enough to play. No need in rushing him back; I'd rather see him play the whole span of a season, even if he ends up playing in fewer games total. Think long-term with Jesus.

Now on to the actual question: 400. I don't think he'll be in position to hit 3,000 hits until 2012, if he's still around.

I wanted to know what your thoughts were about possibly bringing in Gary Sheffield as a big bat off the bench for the Nationals?
-- David H., Laytonsville, Md.
Ick. I don't know what is with people asking about washed up veterans in the mailbag, but it's starting to get old (just like Gary Sheffield). His bat is declining fast and he's even more of a DH than Adam Dunn.

Now on to some bullet-point thoughts:

• I would like to thank DC Sports Report for their yearly review of Nationals blogs (check out last year's list here). I'm proud that their authors bumped me up from a 3 star blog last year to 4 this year. All of the blogs I link to regularly got at least 4 stars as well, so congrats to NFA, NationalsFanboyLooser, FJB and Nats News Network and everyone else!
• MLBTR has the current list of borderline roster players across the league that are out of options. The Nats have one of the longest lists, with at least 9 players: Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Chico, Clippard, Morse, Slaten, Walker and Willingham. My guess is that 7 of the 9 stick, with Chico and Slaten getting outrighted (and I'd guess that they'd accept being sent to AAA because they have as good of a chance at getting back to the bigs with the Nats as with anyone else).
• Nationals Journal has their guess at the Opening Day 25 man roster posted. Here's mine (so far):

PITCHERS (12): Batista, Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Capps, Clippard, Lannan (Opening Day starter), Marquis (#2), Olsen (#3), Speier, Stammen (#4) and Walker.

I think Mock will be the #5 starter but he won't be needed until April 19, so I think they'll carry an extra reliever in Batista/Speier until then. When they're ready to call Mock up, they'll DFA whichever of the two is doing worse.

CATCHERS (2): Nieves and Rodriguez (OD Starter at C).

Like Chico, I'm not willing to bet that Flores will be around for Opening Day. I certainly hope he will, but I'm not expecting it.

INFIELDERS (6): Desmond, Dunn (OD Starter at 1B), Guzman (OD Starter at SS), Kennedy (OD Starter at 2B), Morse, Zimmerman (OD Starter at 3B).

Yes, I do think the Nats will break camp with Desmond on the 25-man roster. No, I do not think he will be an Opening Day starter. And no, I do not think having him on the bench is a good idea. I think that this would be a decent distribution of PT for what it's worth: Desmond-30% at 2B and 40% at SS, Guzman-60% at SS and Kennedy-70% at 2B. Obviously not scientific, but I think something like that would be feasible.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Dukes (OD Starter at RF), Duncan, Harris, Morgan (OD Starter at CF), Willingham (OD Starter at LF).

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Chris Duncan makes the squad on Opening Day. His lefthanded bat certainly helps his cause.

Inbox Infusion

I'm condensing the last 3 inboxes into one, so here they are!
1/18/10

Will the Nationals make Nyjer Morgan upgrade his sliding technique?
-- Dave C., Arlington, Va.

Ladson passes along the following quote from Tony Plush in November: "If I have to make the change, I'm definitely prepared to make the change. But I'm not going to stop my aggressiveness on the basepaths. I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing out there. If I have to change my slide for the team's sake, I will. We have something brewing and it will be special. I just want to be on board with everybody."

If Nyjer's willing to make the move, I'm all for it. But if he starts getting caught more often than not in Spring Training/April, don't be surprised to see him change back.

Would you rather have the Nationals sign Orlando Hudson, or play Ian Desmond and spend money on pitching instead?
-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm all for signing Hudson. I think if a Hudson deal happened, Guzman would get about 20% of the PT at 2B and 40% at SS. I don't see the Nats naming either Guzman or Desmond the full-time starting SS if Hudson signs; both have too many question marks IMO.

Adam Dunn has proven to be a real asset. Yet, you seem to want him gone because his defense isn't that great. How in the world are you going to replace 30-something home runs and a guy who lets Ryan Zimmerman see better pitches to hit? I like the direction the team is going and I hope that includes a slugger like Adam for years to come.
-- Tim H., Virginia Beach, Va.

Adam Dunn is an asset offensively, but he is not a long-term option. It might sound silly, but I think the Nats could (and should) take a run at somebody like Miguel Cabrera. His value is at its all-time lowest with his alcoholism problems, but his worth as a player is still incredibly high. He'll only be 27 in April and can handle 1B relatively well. For more on the topic, check out Matt Klassen's FanGraphs article from November about Cabrera's trade value.

By adding Jason Marquis, do you think the Nats will have a much stronger five-man rotation in 2010?
-- Thomas B., Boston

Umm...yes? Marquis instantly brings stability to the rotation. 200 IP of 4.50 ERA ball is better than most of what the Nats have gotten from their rotation since, oh, 2005.

Is there a place for Leo Mazzone in the Nats' organization? He has an excellent reputation as a pitching coach.
-- John H., Wyalusing, Pa.

I could see the Nats bringing Mazzone in as a roving instructor of some sort, but I think they're happy with Steve McCatty as the big league pitching coach for now.

What about platooning Willie Harris and Alberto Gonzalez at second base?
-- Bill P., Arlington, Va.

Like Ladson, I don't see it happening. Desmond and Guzman are the upper tier of Nats MI's right now and Harris and Gonzalez are the lower tier. If the Nats don't sign Hudson and Desmond or Guzman flop big-time, I might reconsider my position. But if we're talking about where we stand today, I can't see this happening.

1/27/10

I think Willie Harris is underrated. I would put him at second base and Ian Desmond at shortstop. Do you agree?
-- Ben M., Silver Spring, Md.

Harris is a solid backup at 2B, somebody you can count on in a pinch. But let's be serious: he is not a starting 2B. He hasn't even played 200 innings there in the last 4 seasons! He is significantly more valuable to the team as a super-sub or starting LF than a starting 2B.

Where does left-hander Ross Detwiler fit in with the Nationals? I saw you didn't include him in your possible rotation scenarios. Could he get a real chance in 2010, or are the Nationals grooming him for future years? Being a St. Louis native, I would love to see that talent in a Cardinals uniform.
-- Josh K., St. Louis

With the signing of Marquis, Detwiler won't be rushed/forced into a starting role. If the Nats think it's better for his development to send him to the minors, they will. I don't expect him to throw more than 100 IP in the majors this year, but at the same time, I expect him to pitch there at least a little bit. Unless he has a very solid Spring Training, I think he'll start in Syracuse or Harrisburg.

The Nats decided to non-tender Mike MacDougal, who had 20 saves with a 3.60 ERA and sign Matt Capps who had 27 saves with a 5.80 ERA. Why is this so smart?
-- Glynn P., Falls Church, Va.

Because MacDougal sucks. You're about 10 years behind in your logic; rather than signing guys based on what they have done, sign them based on what they can and will do. Invest in the future, not in the past.

Why didn't the Nationals go after Jon Garland? He could have provided another veteran arm and guided the young pitchers who aren't quite ready.
-- Dylan P., Shiloh, Ohio

I don't know why, but I'm not a big Garland fan. Ladson noted that the Nats did make an initial push for him, though, and you can't sign somebody that doesn't want to sign with you.

Why not add Pedro Martinez to the rotation? He looked good with the Phillies last year. I think he has enough gas left in the tank. It would be a great fit.
-- Phil F., Quebec City, Canada

Here's what I said at the end of June: "

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now."

Here's what I said at the end of October: "

I doubt (the Nats will make a run at Pedro this offseason). They didn't go hard after him this season and he's only going to be more expensive and a year older next year."

One thing to consider: sample size. Pedro's "good" 2009 (3.63 ERA, 4.28 FIP) occurred in only 9 starts and 44 and 2/3 innings while his "bad" 2008 (5.61 ERA, 5.18 FIP) took place in more than twice the starts and innings (20 starts and 109 innings, respectively). And he averaged less than 5 innings per start in 2009. At this point, I think I'll pass.

Who is battling for a bullpen spot this Spring Training? Might we see Mock or Balester in the bullpen if they don't make the team as starters?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Here's my abbreviated bullpen outlook:

Locks (75-100% chance of making the roster): Capps (100%)

Semi-Locks (50-75% chance): Batista (~50%), Bruney

(~75%)

, Burnett (~75%), Clippard

(~65%)

, Walker

(~65%)

Bubble (25-50% chance): Bergmann (~40%), Mock (~30%), Slaten (~25%), Speier (~40%)

Outside looking in (<20%>

Thoughts:

Why isn't Clippard a lock? Compare his 2009 to Steven Shell's 2008. An extremely lucky year in both cases leads to unrealistic expectations.

The Nats wouldn't trade for Bruney only to have him not make the roster, right? Wrong. Even if you're looking solely at sunk costs, the Nats didn't really give up anything for him, with a pretty weak Rule 5 crop this year. If Bruney doesn't impress during Spring Training, they won't be afraid to show him the door. At the same time, though, I expect that he will do what he needs to do to break the Opening Day roster.

I think Batista will be a heavily-used member of the Nats' bullpen this year. Maybe not good, but heavily-used.

Feel free to ask/challenge any of my guesses in the comments.

2/1/10

What do you think about Justin Maxwell playing right field on a regular basis for the Nationals?
-- Michael W., Silver Spring, Md.

I think that's a terrible idea. There's this guy who plays there now (you might have heard of him) named Elijah Dukes who is both more talented and more projectable. And anyways, Maxwell still has to do better than a >30% K rate and a <.250 batting average in the minors before he even sniffs regular ML time (not considering injury of course).

Is there any possibility the Nats bring in Johnny Damon to solidify the third outfield position?
-- Andrew G., Fairfax, Va.

Ladson says there is no chance, but if the Nats trade Willingham, it wouldn't surprise me. While Damon was brutal in LF for the Yanks in 2009, he wasn't far off from Willingham. I would much rather have a solid young pitcher and Johnny Damon than just Josh Willingham.

Will Willingham get traded?
-- Jennifer W., Gaithersburg, Va.

Yes. Rizzo isn't satisfied with the current state of pitching, and it's a whole lot easier to acquire a bat for the future than an arm. Willingham's value is at its highest, and Rizzo would be foolish to hold onto him long enough to risk that changing.

How does Matt Chico fit into the Nationals' plans in 2010? Do you see him competing and winning a rotation spot?
-- Benjamin C., Gaithersburg, Md.

I don't think he'll even compete for a rotation spot. His 2007 season was nothing special (below average, really) and he's been hurt since then. Do you really expect him to be better? Even his 2007 status would be a downgrade compared to most of the other guys competing for the starting job.

Do you think the Nationals will acquire a veteran starter before Spring Training?
-- Joy M., Washington

Yes. I don't know that it will be one that will be guaranteed a spot, but I am willing to bet that they'll acquire somebody in the Livan Hernandez tier at the very least.

How much better will the Nationals be if they acquire second baseman Orlando Hudson?
-- Kenny I., Baltimore

A ton, but not for the reasons that you might think. On the surface, Hudson would boost the offensive and defensive numbers from the past at 2B. If you look further, signing him would also give the Nats a contingency plan if Desmond needs more minor league seasoning or Guzman bottoms out. The one thing the Nats generally seem to lack is quality depth, and a Hudson signing would allow them to keep a ML-starting caliber middle infielder on the bench in either him, Guzman or Desmond in every single game.

Inbox

What is the status of right-hander Jordan Zimmermann? Will he be able to pitch in 2010?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Not looking like it, but it would be a pleasant surprise.

Would the Nationals consider bringing Felipe Lopez back?
-- Michael B, Washington.

People keep asking and Ladson keeps answering the same way: NO! But that makes me wonder, why doesn't he just stop answering?

I think J.D. Martin should be given the chance to earn a spot on the big-league staff. What do you think?
-- Ken N., Ridgecrest, Calif.

Given a chance at a spot? Sure. Guaranteed a spot? No. There is going to be a lot of competition when pitchers and catchers report next month (NEXT MONTH!!!). It's better than in previous years because more than one or two of these guys actually deserve to be on an ML roster.

Will the Nats try to extend Adam Dunn's contract or is he here for just one year?
-- Ed J., Gallup, N.M.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Dunn is gone at (or before) the deadline. If for some reason they won't/can't move him, I could easily see them signing him for a few more years. It appears that he likes it here and the other players like him, too.

I don't agree that the Nats should not be looking for offense. Surely, there is a lower-priced outfielder who can come in and challenge Elijah Dukes in right field. Am I wrong?
-- Bobby M., North Potomac, Md.

I agree completely. While I think Dukes is going to have a nice year, we can't afford to put all of our eggs in one basket on that kind of bet. I was hoping for a Ryan Church reunion as a 4th OF, but he's apparently signing with the Pirates. How about Jonny Gomes? Rocco Baldelli? Reed Johnson? Gabe Gross?

What kind of contract is Hudson is seeking?
-- Bill M., Fairfax, Va.

"Based on what I was told, Hudson wants $9 million for 2010, and the Nationals are not willing to give Hudson that kind of money."-Ladson

Yikes. I wouldn't go much further above $6-7 million (plus incentives) for Hudson. But if it's a one year deal, it shouldn't be too catastrophic.

Do you think the Nats will have their middle-infield needs resolved before pitchers and catchers report next month?
-- Ken G., Montreal

If they do, it will be right at the deadline. I envision Rizzo as the kind of guy who lets the market decide itself, getting him the best deals he can on potential bargains.

Inbox Time

This version of the mailbag is a week late, but your mail this week will probably be just as late, so we'll call it even.

Who do you think will be the Nationals' Opening Day shortstop?
-- Patrick S., Chantilly, Va.

Ian Desmond. I honestly don't think the Nats will make a run at an ML-worthy 2B or SS, leaving them with Desmond at SS and Guzman at 2B.

It seems odd that the Nationals would offer arbitration to right-hander Jason Bergmann. Likeable as he is, he's an average pitcher at best.
-- Mike H., Washington

Average at best, yes, but what else describes the Nats bullpen? I'm surprised they didn't non-tender him and try to bring him back at a cheaper salary, but to be honest, it's not a truly cost-prohibitive decision.

What do you think the rotation and bullpen will look like on Opening Day next year? I expect Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen not to be on the roster until later in 2010.
-- Keith C., Greenbelt, Md.

Rotation: Lannan, Detwiler, Olsen, Garland, Marquis

Bullpen: Bergmann, Balester, Burnett, Clippard, Mock and Bruney as the Closer.

Strasburg and Storen will not be in the Majors until at least a month in, I bet.

If the Nationals are unable to land a "Big Time" starter this offseason, do you see any potential trade packages that could land Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay?
-- Michael L., Williamsburg Va.

Well, I obviously missed the boat on this one, but such a deal would cost some sort of a combination of Norris, Storen, Desmond and Marrero (plus maybe some pitchers like Detwiler and Mock), and I don't think the Nats could (or would even want to) match the Phillies' offer.

Will Clippard get a shot in the rotation? He's deadly against left-handed hitters. Just ask Bobby Cox, who would like to have him.
-- Brandon D., Muncie, Ind.

Deadly against lefties, yes, but he still had a .207 BABIP last year. Expect plenty of regression, and further bullpen relegation.

Not too long, it was reported that the Nationals were shopping Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn because they are defensive liabilities. Why? There bats are crucial parts of the lineup, and with Nyjer Morgan, Willie Harris, Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell in the mix, the defense is solid.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

The problem with the defensive whizzes is that only Morgan and Zimmerman are actually starters. The team, in my opinion, has 2 plus fielders in Morgan and Zimmerman, 2 minus fielders in Willingham and Dunn, 2 average fielders in Rodriguez/Flores and Dukes and 2 average fielders with a bigger potential to fall into the lower category than the higher in Desmond and Guzman.

I still like the potential of left-hander Matt Chico. Based on his progress in rehab, what do you think his chances are of being with the team in 2010?
-- Todd B., Smithsburg, Md.

I'm admittedly not a big fan about Chico. He had a below average, yet still lucky, year in 2007. I don't think he'll be back for good, unless he comes back with control and durability.

Slump-busting Inbox

Finally, I've got a break from 3000 word papers and can take the time to answer this week's inbox questions!

Is Mike Morse being considered for any Major League role in 2010? He was as impressive as any player on the team.
-- Joel G, Lynchburg, Va.

Morse should be in the mix, but he shouldn't be guaranteed a spot. He is much better defensively at 1B than Dunn and showed signs of brilliance with the bat, but 2009 Mike Morse is not what we should expect next year if he gets significant playing time. I'd put him down for an improvement in batting average, more walks, less strikeouts but a drop-off in power.

I don't think Adam Dunn's fielding was that bad at first base. How many errors did he make at the position?
-- Craig B., Gaithersburg, Md.

He only made 8 errors, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He has the worst UZR/150 out of all 1B over the last 3 years with at least 600 innings played in the field, twice as bad as Dmitri Young. It's a small-ish sample size, but Dunn simply does not reach the balls in play that a Major League 1B should be able to do.

What do you think right-hander Shairon Martis must do to be successful in the Major Leagues?
-- Daniel G., The Netherlands

He absolutely needs to start striking out more batters and walking less. Having more BB than K is simply not something you can do as a Major League SP. I'm not going to lie: I'm not a big believer in Martis.

Who will be the Nats' closer next season?
-- Jose C., Silver Spring, Md.

Hopefully somebody not in the organization. Ladson noted Mike Gonzalez as a possibility, and I wouldn't mind that. There are a handful of decent closers on the market: Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde and Billy Wagner. I would not be surprised if the Nats made a run at one of them. I really, really, REALLY hope MacDougal is not the closer next year. He will not repeat his 2009 "success."

Jermaine Dye is a free agent. Could we see general manager Mike Rizzo make a move for him?
-- Nick S., Erma, N.J.

No. Dye is still a great hitter, but he has the outfield range of an elephant these days. He's still a useful player by AL standards for a team looking for a DH, but he's not a fit for the Nats.

What is your conclusion about Alberto Gonzalez? I think it's clear that he doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in the Majors.
-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm not ready to give up on him yet. He's been wildly inconsistent in the minors and majors throughout his career, so nobody really knows what to expect. He needs to be more patient, but his pre-2009 numbers suggest he will walk more than the 4.6% of the time he did in the majors this year. I think he has the ability to end up as a Guzman-type player, but then again, Guzman doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in the Majors either. I like him on the bench, though.

Are the Nats content with starting Wil Nieves next season at catcher until Jesus Flores is healthy?
-- Will S., Reston, Va.

Please, no. Nieves is barely passable as a backup let alone a starter. He's a great guy and everything, but he's not a great player.

What is happening with Tim Foli? I heard a lot of positive things about his work as the Syracuse manager, but now I read that Trent Jewett was just named to that position. Will Foli be a coach for the Nats? Is he in the running for the manager position? Thanks.
-- Scott S., Vienna, Va.

I don't have the answer, but Ladson does:

"Foli has done great things in the Nationals' Minor League system. One could say he is the best manager/coach they have ever had in the system. I would have to believe a promotion to the big leagues is in order. From what I understand, if Foli is not promoted to the big leagues, he will be an advisor in the Minor Leagues."

I'm glad to hear this, because the Nats should not let Foli get away from the organization.

Inbox spectacular

Here's your inbox:

Right-hander Drew Storen has been touted as a closer. If he makes the big league team, how about starting him off as a setup man, and then working him into the closer role by midseason?
-- Shane B., Vancouver, Canada

Sounds good to me. Who else is going to close? If the team keeps MacDougal around, they're insane...wayyy too expensive for a guy who is probably going to implode at some point. I think it's funny that Hanrahan is five times better than MacDougal and got run out of town while MacDougal should be a guaranteed non-tender and everyone wants to hold on to his lucky 2009 ERA.

I don't think it's necessary to trade Adam Dunn. Look at first basemen such as Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Delgado. They don't have the defensive skills at first base, but each had brought their teams into the playoffs.
-- Yu-Hung S., Chiayi, Taiwan

They didn't singlehandedly bring their teams to the playoffs...it takes a whole team of talent to matter. I hope the Nats do the right thing and move either Dunn or Willingham for a great young starting pitcher before the season.

What is the status of left-hander Jack McGeary? Is he a Major League talent? Will he get a look at next year's Spring Training?
-- Larry L., Spring Springs, Md.

I like what Spin Williams said in this article: “Some of Jack’s numbers aren’t what you would like to see but he has competed. We really feel good about his progress. He’s really still a first-year player.’’ He wasn't so impressive this year, but what can you really expect from a guy going from 63 and 2/3 innings to 112 innings? The fact that he made it through the season is impressive. The walk rates are frightening, but he has plenty of time to straighten them out...he's only 20 for goodness sake.

Do you see the Nats going after right-hander Pedro Martinez if he becomes a free agent?
-- Isaac R., Baltimore

I doubt it. They didn't go hard after him this season and he's only going to be more expensive and a year older next year.

I would love to see the Nationals add someone like Mark De Rosa to their lineup. He could be a huge upgrade.

-- Travis A., Cornelius, N.C.

I like DeRosa, but he only had a .319 OBP this year...while it will probably stabilize to the .340s or .350s, he'll be 35 next year coming off of a poor year. If he comes cheap, I'll take him, but not at more than $1.5 million.

The Nationals played better when Ian Desmond and Justin Maxwell were in the lineup. Why is it that the fans always seem to "wait" with our prospects when it's clear they have the ability to play at this level? The atmosphere at the ballpark was completely different when these kids took the field. Your thoughts?

-- Mick F., Springfield, Md.

There is no question that Maxwell and Desmond are incredibly talented, but Desmond hadn't broken a .800 OPS in the minors since 2004 and Maxwell was pretty awful in AAA even this year. Don't overlook sample size with early ML results.