Inbox and Thoughts

I'm going to start today with this week's Inbox and move along to some other thoughts afterwards.

How good can outfielder Elijah Dukes be if he plays up to his potential?
-- Jake T., Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.
Dukes can be a perennial All-Star if he plays up to his potential. He can hit 30 HR and steal 20 bases while reaching base consistently and playing decent defense. But I do believe the likelihood of Dukes playing up to his potential is waning each year; he still hasn't proven he can hit consistently well on a major league level.

If they stay relatively healthy, are the Nationals possible playoff contenders or will they finish below .500?
-- Jeff H, Washington
Possible? Sure. Probable? No. The Nats need both health and luck to finish .500 or above.

I notice that you get a lot of heat for getting on Adam Dunn's defense. How do feel about the criticism you get for it?
-- Ken J., Washington
Ladson doesn't have anything to apologize about. Dunn's defense is below average at 1B and worse in the outfield. He has to work extremely hard to get his glove in line this year, or else the Nats could be in big trouble with Zimmerman and Desmond throwing to him at 1B.

How many at-bats do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get this season? I really think he wants to make a run at 3,000 hits, and I'm sure the Nats are aware of this.
-- Dave, New York
Wait...Ladson says “Jesus Flores will be out for quite some time after right shoulder surgery.” ACK! He'll still be out for quite some time once the season starts? If that's the case, the Nats need more than Wil Nieves and Jamie Burke to fill Flores' void.
I do agree with Ladson that the Nats need to ease Flores into things when he's healthy enough to play. No need in rushing him back; I'd rather see him play the whole span of a season, even if he ends up playing in fewer games total. Think long-term with Jesus.

Now on to the actual question: 400. I don't think he'll be in position to hit 3,000 hits until 2012, if he's still around.

I wanted to know what your thoughts were about possibly bringing in Gary Sheffield as a big bat off the bench for the Nationals?
-- David H., Laytonsville, Md.
Ick. I don't know what is with people asking about washed up veterans in the mailbag, but it's starting to get old (just like Gary Sheffield). His bat is declining fast and he's even more of a DH than Adam Dunn.

Now on to some bullet-point thoughts:

• I would like to thank DC Sports Report for their yearly review of Nationals blogs (check out last year's list here). I'm proud that their authors bumped me up from a 3 star blog last year to 4 this year. All of the blogs I link to regularly got at least 4 stars as well, so congrats to NFA, NationalsFanboyLooser, FJB and Nats News Network and everyone else!
• MLBTR has the current list of borderline roster players across the league that are out of options. The Nats have one of the longest lists, with at least 9 players: Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Chico, Clippard, Morse, Slaten, Walker and Willingham. My guess is that 7 of the 9 stick, with Chico and Slaten getting outrighted (and I'd guess that they'd accept being sent to AAA because they have as good of a chance at getting back to the bigs with the Nats as with anyone else).
• Nationals Journal has their guess at the Opening Day 25 man roster posted. Here's mine (so far):

PITCHERS (12): Batista, Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Capps, Clippard, Lannan (Opening Day starter), Marquis (#2), Olsen (#3), Speier, Stammen (#4) and Walker.

I think Mock will be the #5 starter but he won't be needed until April 19, so I think they'll carry an extra reliever in Batista/Speier until then. When they're ready to call Mock up, they'll DFA whichever of the two is doing worse.

CATCHERS (2): Nieves and Rodriguez (OD Starter at C).

Like Chico, I'm not willing to bet that Flores will be around for Opening Day. I certainly hope he will, but I'm not expecting it.

INFIELDERS (6): Desmond, Dunn (OD Starter at 1B), Guzman (OD Starter at SS), Kennedy (OD Starter at 2B), Morse, Zimmerman (OD Starter at 3B).

Yes, I do think the Nats will break camp with Desmond on the 25-man roster. No, I do not think he will be an Opening Day starter. And no, I do not think having him on the bench is a good idea. I think that this would be a decent distribution of PT for what it's worth: Desmond-30% at 2B and 40% at SS, Guzman-60% at SS and Kennedy-70% at 2B. Obviously not scientific, but I think something like that would be feasible.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Dukes (OD Starter at RF), Duncan, Harris, Morgan (OD Starter at CF), Willingham (OD Starter at LF).

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Chris Duncan makes the squad on Opening Day. His lefthanded bat certainly helps his cause.

Two days, two inboxes

This post will be better than the Redskins' game, I promise. On a side note-the parking lot staff at Fed Ex are morons. They led my friends and I about a half mile in the completely wrong direction to get to a Metro Station. That's all I have to say on that subject.

On to the inbox:

How much playing time do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get? I think it would be a waste if he gets only the amount of playing time Wil Nieves had last year. Pudge can still provide some serious offense besides his defensive skills.
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll get more than that just because Flores is so injury-prone. I have a feeling that Flores' injury might be worse than we think...if that's the case, Nieves might even get as much time this year as he did last year.

How much interest are the Nationals showing in Aroldis Chapman? It looks like his upside could be as high as Stephen Strasburg's and, if signed, would give the club an outstanding top of the rotation for years to come.
--- Jeff O., Victoria, Texas

I'm not expecting them to make a big run for them, and I can't really blame them. Chapman has a lot of talent, but he is nowhere near the polished prospect Strasburg is. A team that doesn't spend a lot of money throwing $15 mil at a guy who isn't a sure thing doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Would Felipe Lopez be a good fit at second base for the Nats?
-- Sean B., Washington

Absolutely not. What a friggin' bum. Whoever signs him is going to be disappointed-his BABIP in 2009 was almost 30 points higher than it had ever been before. He'll come back down to earth and make somebody else's fans miserable in 2010.

What happened to all the John Smoltz buzz? It seems like ages ago that we've heard anything about the Nats trying to acquire a starting pitcher. If you were in Rizzo's shoes, which free-agent pitchers would you sign?
-- Scott W., Onley, Va.

I agree with Ladson that Smoltz and the Nats have mutual interest, but more in terms of a each side having a backup date to prom. I think the Nats might chase Jon Garland but end up with Doug Davis. I'm always wary of both for some reason (I guess I just expect the bottom to fall out sometime soon), but if we could get either on a one-year deal in the $5-7 mil range, I wouldn't be opposed to it.

What are the Nationals' options if Cristian Guzman can`t play second base?
-- Ryan L., Dunn, N.C.

Gonzalez and Harris are the likeliest options, but a dark horse could be Mike Morse. He played 19 games at 2B for Tacoma in 2009. Reasonable FA options include Orlando Hudson, Mark Derosa, Kelly Johnson and even Ronnie Belliard.

What are the chances of bringing Vladimir Guerrero back into the organization?
-- Kelvin A., Rockville, Md.

None unless they trade Willingham or Dunn. Guerrero is not a good fit for an NL team anyways-he only played 16 innings in the field in 2009.

What's the status of Chris Marrero? Can we expect him in the big leagues anytime soon?
-- Colin W., Germantown, Md.

To be honest, I have no clue. Marrero is at the age where he can either catapult through the system and end up in DC in September (fairly likely) or bottom out completely and be done with baseball (highly unlikely). He didn't look very good in 84 PA's at Harrisburg, but that's a very small sample size. We'll know for sure when the ASG rolls around whether or not he can hack it in AA.

Bullet point updates

Please forgive my lack of posting since Thanksgiving. I've been writing my senior thesis (as a junior, for no good reason) and it's taking a huge chunk of my time. Here are my thoughts on a few things that have been going on in the Majors recently:

Pudge signing: Kinda iffy. I don't mind signing the future Hall of Famer, who is still a huge upgrade over our backups from last year (side note-I wanted the Nats to go after him during Spring Training). I don't mind the $3 mil/year average, since it's not my money. I don't think a 2 year deal was necessary, though. I would have even preferred a $4 mil or maybe even $4.5 mil deal for just one year. While it's not an albatross of a contract like Vernon Wells or Alfonso Soriano, it will still be impossible to move if Pudge totally sucks. Hopefully he won't, and I'm actually pretty excited to see him play.

Bruney trade: The more I look, the less I like. Bruney has only sustained a BB/9 rate of 5 or below for a full season once since 2004. Once. I'm not even upset at what we gave up for him-in all honesty, the Nats have been pretty crappy in the Rule 5 draft outside of Flores and there are not a whole lot of interesting names this year anyways. Maybe we went after him because Bruney is worth a positive value in even years while being awful in odd years. I don't know, but I don't want to see him trotting out of the bullpen in the 8th or 9th inning...ever.

Transactions around the league:

Randy Wolf (signs with MIL, 3 years, ~$30 mil): Money sounds about right, but I would have offered no more than 2 years. A better signing than Jeff Suppan was in 2007, that's for sure.

3 way AZ/DET/NYY deal (Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to AZ, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson to DET and Curtis Granderson to NYY):
Terrible for Arizona, good for Detroit, great for the Yankees.

BAL/TEX deal (Kevin Millwood and $3 mil to BAL, Chris Ray to TEX):

Great move for TEX, allowing them to free up money to sign Rich Harden and still come out ahead financially. Bad move for Baltimore. They will be paying Millwood $9 million when they could have gotten a better pitcher much cheaper.

HOU/FLA deal (Matt Lindstrom to HOU, Robert Bono, Luis Bryan and HOU's Rule 5 pick to FLA):

The prospects heading to Florida aren't really impressive, but are definitely sleepers...and finding a keeper for Lindstrom is a win for them. Not sure why the Astros would want to give up even 2 C prospects plus their rule 5 pick when they could have gotten Bruney for cheaper, though.

Players on my short list for the Nats:

2B Orlando Hudson at 2 years/$14 mil-his value has fluctuated between $9.1 mil and $13.7 mil over the last 4 years. I would go as high as $8.5-9 mil for one year. He doesn't cost a draft pick, so nothing to lose but somebody else's money.

OF Rick Ankiel at 1 year/$2 mil-interesting buy-low candidate. Tons of power and good arm, and another lefty bat in the organization can't hurt.

One of the following SP's at 1 year/$5-$7 mil: Erik Bedard, Justin Duchsherer, Ben Sheets, Jon Garland

One of the following SP's at 1 year/$750k-$3 mil: Livan Hernandez, John Smoltz, Brett Myers,

One of the following SP's at 1 year/$500k-$1 mil: Rich Hill, Shawn Hill, Mark Prior, Noah Lowry

One of the following RP's at 1 year/$4-6 mil: Mike Gonzalez or Kevin Gregg
One of the following RP's at 1 year/$1-2 mil: J.J. Putz, Joe Beimel, Bob Howry, Octavio Dotel

One of the following RP's at 1 year/$500k-$1 mil: Chad Cordero, Eric Gagne

Thoughts?

Inbox

Because blogging > studying! Here's your Inbox:

Free agent Pedro Martinez would win some games and draw fans in Washington. The Nationals could use a tested starter. Any thoughts?
-- Kyle S. Arlington, Va.

Martinez is the type of veteran the Nats SHOULD sign. He's an ex-star (unlike Paul Lo Duca, who was just an ex-decent player). His velocity is apparently back, his pitches are moving well...he would be a great fit and could teach our guys something.

I saw Ivan Rodriguez in the World Baseball Classic, and he looks impressive. He has not signed with a Major League team yet. Would the Nationals be interested in him as a mentor to Jesus Flores and a backup catcher?
-- Raul T., Arlington, Va.

Along with Pedro, I think Pudge would be a good signing, but for defensive reasons. Like Ladson said, however, it depends on whether or not he'd be willing to accept a backup/split role. I don't believe Flores is going to be able to catch a full season successfully at this point...no basis, just a feeling. Plus, we could use a catcher who is famous for catching would-be base stealers to make them think twice when running on Daniel Cabrera.

It is exciting to think that in the not too distance future, the Nationals are going to have John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg leading this starting pitching staff for years to come.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

It is exciting, but there are no guarantees. Lannan relies a lot on pinpoint control and changing speeds, something that is near impossible to be compeltely consistent on through a career. Zimmermann and Strasburg have never thrown above AA before, so they aren't sure things either. All three (and Balester and Martis, too) have a wealth of talent. It's up to our coaching staff to try and corral this talent and mold some awesome pitchers. Pray for no injuries as well.

What will the Nats do with their crowded outfield? Obviously, Austin Kearns or Elijah Dukes will not accept a backup role.
-- Michael R., St. John's, Newfoundland

I think Willingham will be dealt. I also think Kearns will accept a backup role if asked (or at least a "start 2 of every 4 days" sort of deal). With Johnson being Johnson and Dukes being Dukes (and Willingham being Willingham), I think injuries might sort things out.

I would like to see the Nationals acknowledge earlier Washington teams rather than the Montreal Expos. Surely, Washington fans prefer to think of a team history that includes Walter Johnson, Bucky Harris and Frank Howard, rather than one featuring Andre Dawson, who never played a game in Washington.
-- Larry F., Gaithersburg, Md.

Unfortunately, the Twins and Rangers "own" the franchise records, per se. Anything involving The Big Train and Hondo would have to be filed under "Washington DC baseball records" instead of "Nationals Franchise Records." Technicality, yes, but it's tacky to take a team from a city and then pretend like they never existed.

Bonus: newcomer Julian Tavarez compares the Nats to Jennifer Lopez and Josh Towers and Justin Maxwell will not make it past the next roster cut tomorrow.