Monday Inbox

It's that time again! Here is the inbox:

I'm concerned about promoting Stephen Strasburg to the Major Leagues so quickly. I'd like to see him learn how to pitch for a season or two in the Minors first. I remember David Clyde coming up too soon for the Rangers in the early 1970s and would hate to see that repeated.
-- Richard G., Washington, D.C.

I get your point, but the Clyde/Strasburg comparison is apples-to-oranges. Clyde made his ML debut as an 18 year old right out of high school and the same year he was drafted. Even if Strasburg pitched on Opening Day, he would be 3 years older, with 3 years of college at San Diego State and some time spent against legitimate prospects in the Arizona Fall League and some legitimate ML/AAAA/AAAers in Spring Training. That's a ton more experience than Clyde ever had before making his first start.

But I digress to the actual point: Strasburg should only start the year in a Nats uniform if he has an ERA under 1.00 during Spring Training. Unless his other-worldly talent brings other-worldly success, he needs to spend at least a few months in the minors to tune up and learn the game, both on and off of the field.

With Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang out for a few months, do you think Chuck James might get a chance to become part of the starting rotation?
-- Don M., Stratford, PE, Canada

I would put his chances at 1% or less. James didn't pitch at all in 2009 and was awful in the Majors in 2008 (albeit pretty good in AAA). He was never as good as his numbers indicated, either. He's not a bad guy to have around in case of a large number of catastrophic injuries, but I wouldn't list him amongst the top 10 or so options to break camp in the starting rotation.

Bringing back reliever Ron Villone made me wonder why the Nats didn't re-sign Mike MacDougal. MacDougal was one of the few bright spots last year.
-- Luke H., Prince Frederick, Md.

Well, considering Meiklejohn only got a minor league deal from the Marlins, apparently every other team felt the same way about him. He had more walks than strikeouts for goodness sake! Again, he's not a bad fall back option for the league minimum, but just because he led the worst team in baseball in saves doesn't make him a good closer.

Since Wang will not be available until later in the season, would the Nationals have any interest in pursuing John Smoltz as an early-season starter and then moving him to the bullpen where he could provide leadership and help shore up middle relief?
-- Glenn B., Arlington, Va.

If they could sign him to a deal worth $2 mil or less plus incentives, I'd be fine with it. His stats from last year are deceiving; he had a 3-8 record and a 6.35 ERA but a 3.87 FIP. He'll definitely bounce back at least some from a poor season last year, but I wouldn't be willing to pay him anywhere near the $5.5 mil he was guaranteed last year.

One other note on Smoltz-he only threw 80 innings last year and 28 in 2008. Don't expect him to be able to toss 150 innings.

I find it interesting that you focus so much on the defensive weaknesses of Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Cristian Guzman. Yet, you seem to have a selective memory when it comes to the defense of Elijah Dukes, who was average at best and had many misplays and errors.
-- Robert M., Daytona Beach, Fla.

The difference between Dukes and Willingham/Dunn is that Dukes actually gets to the ball and THEN makes an error. Dukes has a career UZR/150 of 2.8 in RF and I'd be more than happy with that.

I noticed that outfielder Chris Duncan is a non-roster invitee. He was a fan favorite in St. Louis. What are his chances of making the roster out of Spring Training?
-- Tim S. Richmond, Va.

I think he has a great chance to be honest. The Nats don't have any lefthanded hitters with any pop to come off the bench. If he puts up decent numbers in Spring Training, I think he'll stick. With a career line of .270/.366/.485 against righties, I think he'd be an awesome guy to have around to serve as a late game pinch hitter or Elijah Dukes platoon partner IF he rebounds from an awful stretch in 2007-08. But like Ladson said, pairing him back up with Rick Eckstein could help him a bunch.

Dunn seems fine at first base, and everyone is raving about Chris Marrero's bat, but what about Mike Morse? When he came up late last year, he looked solid as a rock to me.
-- Woody S., Arlington, Va.

Morse is a pretty decent bench bat, but I'm not counting on him to do a lot more than that. His bat is essentially Cristian Guzman's but with more power. He rarely walks but strikes out a lot, which could hurt his chances as the season rolls on.

Two days, two inboxes

This post will be better than the Redskins' game, I promise. On a side note-the parking lot staff at Fed Ex are morons. They led my friends and I about a half mile in the completely wrong direction to get to a Metro Station. That's all I have to say on that subject.

On to the inbox:

How much playing time do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get? I think it would be a waste if he gets only the amount of playing time Wil Nieves had last year. Pudge can still provide some serious offense besides his defensive skills.
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll get more than that just because Flores is so injury-prone. I have a feeling that Flores' injury might be worse than we think...if that's the case, Nieves might even get as much time this year as he did last year.

How much interest are the Nationals showing in Aroldis Chapman? It looks like his upside could be as high as Stephen Strasburg's and, if signed, would give the club an outstanding top of the rotation for years to come.
--- Jeff O., Victoria, Texas

I'm not expecting them to make a big run for them, and I can't really blame them. Chapman has a lot of talent, but he is nowhere near the polished prospect Strasburg is. A team that doesn't spend a lot of money throwing $15 mil at a guy who isn't a sure thing doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Would Felipe Lopez be a good fit at second base for the Nats?
-- Sean B., Washington

Absolutely not. What a friggin' bum. Whoever signs him is going to be disappointed-his BABIP in 2009 was almost 30 points higher than it had ever been before. He'll come back down to earth and make somebody else's fans miserable in 2010.

What happened to all the John Smoltz buzz? It seems like ages ago that we've heard anything about the Nats trying to acquire a starting pitcher. If you were in Rizzo's shoes, which free-agent pitchers would you sign?
-- Scott W., Onley, Va.

I agree with Ladson that Smoltz and the Nats have mutual interest, but more in terms of a each side having a backup date to prom. I think the Nats might chase Jon Garland but end up with Doug Davis. I'm always wary of both for some reason (I guess I just expect the bottom to fall out sometime soon), but if we could get either on a one-year deal in the $5-7 mil range, I wouldn't be opposed to it.

What are the Nationals' options if Cristian Guzman can`t play second base?
-- Ryan L., Dunn, N.C.

Gonzalez and Harris are the likeliest options, but a dark horse could be Mike Morse. He played 19 games at 2B for Tacoma in 2009. Reasonable FA options include Orlando Hudson, Mark Derosa, Kelly Johnson and even Ronnie Belliard.

What are the chances of bringing Vladimir Guerrero back into the organization?
-- Kelvin A., Rockville, Md.

None unless they trade Willingham or Dunn. Guerrero is not a good fit for an NL team anyways-he only played 16 innings in the field in 2009.

What's the status of Chris Marrero? Can we expect him in the big leagues anytime soon?
-- Colin W., Germantown, Md.

To be honest, I have no clue. Marrero is at the age where he can either catapult through the system and end up in DC in September (fairly likely) or bottom out completely and be done with baseball (highly unlikely). He didn't look very good in 84 PA's at Harrisburg, but that's a very small sample size. We'll know for sure when the ASG rolls around whether or not he can hack it in AA.

Slump-busting Inbox

Finally, I've got a break from 3000 word papers and can take the time to answer this week's inbox questions!

Is Mike Morse being considered for any Major League role in 2010? He was as impressive as any player on the team.
-- Joel G, Lynchburg, Va.

Morse should be in the mix, but he shouldn't be guaranteed a spot. He is much better defensively at 1B than Dunn and showed signs of brilliance with the bat, but 2009 Mike Morse is not what we should expect next year if he gets significant playing time. I'd put him down for an improvement in batting average, more walks, less strikeouts but a drop-off in power.

I don't think Adam Dunn's fielding was that bad at first base. How many errors did he make at the position?
-- Craig B., Gaithersburg, Md.

He only made 8 errors, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He has the worst UZR/150 out of all 1B over the last 3 years with at least 600 innings played in the field, twice as bad as Dmitri Young. It's a small-ish sample size, but Dunn simply does not reach the balls in play that a Major League 1B should be able to do.

What do you think right-hander Shairon Martis must do to be successful in the Major Leagues?
-- Daniel G., The Netherlands

He absolutely needs to start striking out more batters and walking less. Having more BB than K is simply not something you can do as a Major League SP. I'm not going to lie: I'm not a big believer in Martis.

Who will be the Nats' closer next season?
-- Jose C., Silver Spring, Md.

Hopefully somebody not in the organization. Ladson noted Mike Gonzalez as a possibility, and I wouldn't mind that. There are a handful of decent closers on the market: Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde and Billy Wagner. I would not be surprised if the Nats made a run at one of them. I really, really, REALLY hope MacDougal is not the closer next year. He will not repeat his 2009 "success."

Jermaine Dye is a free agent. Could we see general manager Mike Rizzo make a move for him?
-- Nick S., Erma, N.J.

No. Dye is still a great hitter, but he has the outfield range of an elephant these days. He's still a useful player by AL standards for a team looking for a DH, but he's not a fit for the Nats.

What is your conclusion about Alberto Gonzalez? I think it's clear that he doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in the Majors.
-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm not ready to give up on him yet. He's been wildly inconsistent in the minors and majors throughout his career, so nobody really knows what to expect. He needs to be more patient, but his pre-2009 numbers suggest he will walk more than the 4.6% of the time he did in the majors this year. I think he has the ability to end up as a Guzman-type player, but then again, Guzman doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in the Majors either. I like him on the bench, though.

Are the Nats content with starting Wil Nieves next season at catcher until Jesus Flores is healthy?
-- Will S., Reston, Va.

Please, no. Nieves is barely passable as a backup let alone a starter. He's a great guy and everything, but he's not a great player.

What is happening with Tim Foli? I heard a lot of positive things about his work as the Syracuse manager, but now I read that Trent Jewett was just named to that position. Will Foli be a coach for the Nats? Is he in the running for the manager position? Thanks.
-- Scott S., Vienna, Va.

I don't have the answer, but Ladson does:

"Foli has done great things in the Nationals' Minor League system. One could say he is the best manager/coach they have ever had in the system. I would have to believe a promotion to the big leagues is in order. From what I understand, if Foli is not promoted to the big leagues, he will be an advisor in the Minor Leagues."

I'm glad to hear this, because the Nats should not let Foli get away from the organization.

Inbox interjection, snark edition

Inbox time, boy oh boy!

I recently read about the September callups for the Nationals. I was shocked not to see Matt Chico's name on the list. I really liked him in 2007 when he was the team's most consistent starting pitcher.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

Here's a list of the Nationals' most consistent starting pitchers, year by year:

2005-Livan Hernandez/John Patterson/Esteban Loaiza-Patterson and Loaiza are out of baseball and Livan will be soon

2006-Mike O'Connor-O'Connor was last seen pitching for the Royals' AAA affiliate, his 3rd team of 2009 after the Nats and Padres. He'll likely be out of baseball soon.

2007-Matt Chico

2008-John Lannan/Odalis Perez-Perez is out of baseball

2009-John Lannan

Out of the 7 names, 3 are out of baseball and 2 likely will be soon. Not exactly great company if you ask me. Chico wasn't really very good in the first place. I don't expect to see him back.

Why didn't the Nationals call up right-hander Shairon Martis when the roster expanded? Of all the Nationals pitchers this season, he had one of the better records and should be given more serious consideration to play in the Majors.
-- Joe W., Waldorf, Md.

Innings limit...and if you use still use records to judge pitchers, please stay away from keyboards.

I understand that Mike Morse is a shortstop, but has there been any consideration about trying him out at short or second?
-- Matt D., Alexandria, Va.

Huh? I understand that Matt D. is from Alexandria, but is there any consideration about him moving to Alexandria?

Nats need to rethink Morse if they want him to play just 1B/OF.

Mets catcher Brian Schneider is a free agent after this season. Do you see him back with the Nationals as a backup catcher? He's a great defensive backstop and could help both Jesus Flores and the pitching staff as a mentor. What do you think?
-- Geoff B., Las Vegas

Please bring Schneider back. I like Bard a lot, but he's poor defensively (I'd rather have my backup catcher excel defensively and hit like Livan Hernandez than hit and field like Josh Bard). Nieves is below average. Schneider would bring stability to the pitching staff, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to have a lefthanded hitting catcher.

During the offseason, the Nationals should get better pitching for the rotation and the bullpen, but the offense is in great shape. What do you think?
-- Jonathan G., New York

Ladson: "I don't think the offense is in great shape. With Nyjer Morgan out of the lineup, this team is too slow on the basepaths. It needs more speed. It shouldn't rely on just the home run."

Well, now we know Joe Morgan's pseudonym is Bill Ladson.

I think Garrett Mock has monster stuff and deserves to be in the rotation. The same can be said about J.D. Martin, but for some reason, his stuff doesn't impress me.
-- Ryan R., Fairfax, Va.

For some reason, J.D. Martin's stuff doesn't impress me either.

Will the Nats keep Pete Orr around at least as a utilityman? I am so impressed with him. He's such a pro, and I can't help but root for him.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Are these people kidding? If today's mailbag question ran the Nats, they would be lucky not to lose 150 games.

The lineup would consist of this:

CF Nyjer Morgan

LF Willie Harris

3B Ryan Zimmerman

RF Elijah Dukes (Willingham is too slow)

SS Cristian Guzman (I feel like this is the pro-Guzman crowd)

1B Mike Morse (Dunn is too slow)

C Brian Schneider

2B Pete Orr

Nice.

2010 Roster Building-Third Basemen

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Third Base. Follow along with the series here.

THIRD BASEMEN

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Morse and Willie Harris

Other possibilities in the organization: Leonard Davis and Kory Casto

Third base is the one sure thing in the system. Ryan Zimmerman, when healthy, is (and will be) the starting third baseman, period. The competition here is for the backup position. I believe the Nats will carry 2 "backups" in Morse and Harris. Morse has the ability to play the corners in the infield and outfield so I bet he'll stick around and Harris has traditionally been the go-to-guy when Zimmerman gets a day off. Like I said yesterday, Davis hasn't hit well enough at AAA to make me think he can make the jump to the Majors and Casto lost his power and plate discipline in AAA this year.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Cristian Guzman

If Zimmerman gets injured for an extended period of time, I could see the Nats shifting Guzman to 3rd, starting Desmond at SS and playing Gonzalez and Harris at 2B in the meantime. Besides that, I don't see anybody new making a push to the backup 3B spot. Joel Guzman is a slight possibility, but I bet he'll depart as a minor league FA after the year.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Chone Figgins and Jamey Carroll.

There really aren't many backup-types in the free agent market, so I could only really see the Nats going out of the organization to pick up a backup if it were a utility player like Figgins or Carroll.

2009 production by Nats third basemen to date: .297/.368/.517, 27 HR, 97 R, 90 RBI

2010 projection: I still think we haven't seen the best to come from Zimmerman, but for now, let's be conservative and say the 2010 3B production is 10% worse than this year's. That's still 24 HR, 87 R and 80 RBI through September 2...pretty darn good.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

2010 Roster Building-First Basemen

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is First Base. Follow along with the series here.

FIRST BASEMEN

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Adam Dunn and Mike Morse

Other possibilities in the organization: Josh Willingham, Daryle Ward, Brad Eldred

The ideal situation in my opinion is for Josh Willingham to be named the starting 1B from day 1 (in Spring Training, that is). I do believe, athletically, he is better suited as the better long-term option for the Nats at 1B. If he can't cut it, it won't hurt to shift Dunn back, but I do wholeheartedly think Willingham can be an above-average defender at 1B. I picked Morse because of his ability to play multiple positions (although none of them very well) and hit at the ML level (despite little success in 10 plate appearances to date this year, he's still a .297/.360/.394 career hitter in the majors). I expect him to be our Ronnie Belliard in 2010. I doubt Ward and Eldred will be back, but there is always a possibility...

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): A slight, slight, ever so slight possibility could be Chris Marrero. I do not advocate rushing him to the bigs, as he only has 50 plate appearances against AA pitching. If he has a strong showing in Spring Training and throughout the first few months in Harrisburg and Syracuse, I could see him showing up in DC around the all-star break, especially if the team plans on moving Dunn at the deadline.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Nick Johnson. No, not all of these sleeper picks are going to be Nats re-treads, but in a thin 1B free agent class, he (and maybe Ross Gload) are the only ones I can really see making sense. Most of the free agents out there are either starters (Delgado, Thome, LaRoche) or guys who are past their prime (Giambi, Sweeney). Branyan or Stairs might be decent fits, but I would expect them to want to sign with contenders rather than the Nats.

2009 production by Nats first basemen to date: .289/.415/.459, 19 HR, 76 R, 72 RBI

2010 projection: Significantly better offensively and significantly worse defensively. Johnson is not the ace with the glove he used to be, but he's still light years ahead of the likely 2010 Nats starter Adam Dunn.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.