Inbox Spectacular

In what looks to be the last inbox before Opening Day, Bill Ladson discussed the team's speed, Jermaine Dye and the #5 starter situation. Here's what I have to say:

Do you like the speed the Nats are displaying on the bases this spring? I really hope to see a lot of it during the regular season.
-- Garin S., Austin, Texas

The speed isn't what is exciting for me. What I like the most is that the Nats have a bunch of guys that know how to use it. Generally speaking, you need to have a 75% rate or better for it to be worth stealing bases. Willie Harris has a 77% SB success rate with the Nats. Ian Desmond was 22/27 across all levels last year (81%). Nyjer Morgan was 24/31 with the Nats last year (77%). Willy Taveras is 194/236 (82%) over his career. Roger Bernadina has a 78% rate in his minor league career.

While guys like Taveras, Harris and Bernadina may be better off as bench/utility players, I have to give them credit; they ARE good base-stealers.

(EDIT-the Nats have stolen bases at a 79% rate in Spring Training. Nice.)

With the 25-man roster almost set, will the Nationals have a winning record this year?
--Billy P., Washington D.C.

Don't bet on it. If the Nats want a legitimate shot at a winning record, they would need to start the year with Storen and Strasburg on the big league squad in addition to signing/trading for a legitimate RF. Even if that were the case, their chances would still be slim-this team isn't quite ready to make that jump yet in my opinion. I expect them to win 72-78 wins with what they have in the system now.

After watching Matt Capps' below-average performance this spring, do you think he's the best choice for the closer role?
-- Daniel O, Centreville, Va.

Capps wasn't great, but neither were Bruney or Clippard. All three had disappointingly high walk rates and for anyone to surpass Capps on the depth chart in Spring Training, they would have needed to be lights-out. Since Bruney and Clippard couldn't do that, Capps wins by default. I won't be worried about Capps until the second or third week of April if his stats are still lackluster.

In your opinion, who should be the fifth starter and why?

-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm glad the Nats didn't go with Olsen. Spending time in Syracuse will allow him to work on his arm strength in a lower pressure environment where he (hopefully) won't rush his progress. I agree with Farid Rushdi, however, that J.D. Martin would have been a better option than Mock. I've always had a soft spot for Mock, but from a statistical standpoint I can't see why he is a better option at this point, especially since both have options left. My only guess is that the Nats see their rotation as a bunch of pitch to contact types in Lannan, Marquis, Hernandez and Stammen and they would rather have one guy who can rack up some K's than another guy who relies on his defense for outs.

When are the Nationals going to sign Jermaine Dye?
-- Jerry J., Atlanta

Not soon enough. Even though Dye is an awful defensive outfielder, he's at the very least a better platoon candidate than Willy Taveras. And I'm sure that even if he hits at an average rate (say, .250/.340/.453 like he hit in 2009), the Nats will be able to find a taker for him at the Trade Dealine.

. What do you make of Jason Marquis' struggles this spring? How worried are you?
-- Austin D., West Hartford, Conn.

I'm not worried. It's just Spring Training.

Inbox interjection, snark edition

Inbox time, boy oh boy!

I recently read about the September callups for the Nationals. I was shocked not to see Matt Chico's name on the list. I really liked him in 2007 when he was the team's most consistent starting pitcher.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

Here's a list of the Nationals' most consistent starting pitchers, year by year:

2005-Livan Hernandez/John Patterson/Esteban Loaiza-Patterson and Loaiza are out of baseball and Livan will be soon

2006-Mike O'Connor-O'Connor was last seen pitching for the Royals' AAA affiliate, his 3rd team of 2009 after the Nats and Padres. He'll likely be out of baseball soon.

2007-Matt Chico

2008-John Lannan/Odalis Perez-Perez is out of baseball

2009-John Lannan

Out of the 7 names, 3 are out of baseball and 2 likely will be soon. Not exactly great company if you ask me. Chico wasn't really very good in the first place. I don't expect to see him back.

Why didn't the Nationals call up right-hander Shairon Martis when the roster expanded? Of all the Nationals pitchers this season, he had one of the better records and should be given more serious consideration to play in the Majors.
-- Joe W., Waldorf, Md.

Innings limit...and if you use still use records to judge pitchers, please stay away from keyboards.

I understand that Mike Morse is a shortstop, but has there been any consideration about trying him out at short or second?
-- Matt D., Alexandria, Va.

Huh? I understand that Matt D. is from Alexandria, but is there any consideration about him moving to Alexandria?

Nats need to rethink Morse if they want him to play just 1B/OF.

Mets catcher Brian Schneider is a free agent after this season. Do you see him back with the Nationals as a backup catcher? He's a great defensive backstop and could help both Jesus Flores and the pitching staff as a mentor. What do you think?
-- Geoff B., Las Vegas

Please bring Schneider back. I like Bard a lot, but he's poor defensively (I'd rather have my backup catcher excel defensively and hit like Livan Hernandez than hit and field like Josh Bard). Nieves is below average. Schneider would bring stability to the pitching staff, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to have a lefthanded hitting catcher.

During the offseason, the Nationals should get better pitching for the rotation and the bullpen, but the offense is in great shape. What do you think?
-- Jonathan G., New York

Ladson: "I don't think the offense is in great shape. With Nyjer Morgan out of the lineup, this team is too slow on the basepaths. It needs more speed. It shouldn't rely on just the home run."

Well, now we know Joe Morgan's pseudonym is Bill Ladson.

I think Garrett Mock has monster stuff and deserves to be in the rotation. The same can be said about J.D. Martin, but for some reason, his stuff doesn't impress me.
-- Ryan R., Fairfax, Va.

For some reason, J.D. Martin's stuff doesn't impress me either.

Will the Nats keep Pete Orr around at least as a utilityman? I am so impressed with him. He's such a pro, and I can't help but root for him.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Are these people kidding? If today's mailbag question ran the Nats, they would be lucky not to lose 150 games.

The lineup would consist of this:

CF Nyjer Morgan

LF Willie Harris

3B Ryan Zimmerman

RF Elijah Dukes (Willingham is too slow)

SS Cristian Guzman (I feel like this is the pro-Guzman crowd)

1B Mike Morse (Dunn is too slow)

C Brian Schneider

2B Pete Orr

Nice.

2010 Roster Building-Starting Pitchers (Internal Options)

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats are Starting Pitchers. Follow along with the series here.

STARTING PITCHERS:

Internal options:

John Lannan (LHP, under team control for 2010)

Lannan is the one sure thing the Nats have. He's the only pitcher on the current 25-man roster that would be worthy of a rotation spot for a playoff team. For a rotation lacking stability, he's really the strong point.

Stephen Strasburg (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I do not believe Strasburg is Major League ready yet (subject to change after the Arizona Fall League/Spring Training). I do believe the Nats will push him into the Majors either for the start of the season or at least by the All Star Break. His other-worldly talent is well-known...let's just hope he can translate it to major league success.

Ross Detwiler (LHP, under team control for 2010)

I usually group the Nats' young starting pitchers together, but I believe Detwiler should be considered separately. Detwiler is more talented than Stammen, Martis, Balester, Mock and Martis. And while he didn't necessarily look good in his 10-start stint with the Nats this summer, he was the only one out of the six with an FIP that would look particularly desirable in a major league rotation (3.89). I have high expectations for Detwiler to put up better actual numbers next year, and for his rate stats to improve as well. If I had to name a breakout candidate for the Nats in 2010, I would go with Detwiler.

Livan Hernandez (RHP, needs to be resigned)

Call me crazy, but I believe Livan when he says he'll be better in 2010. Maybe not a whole lot better, but I could see him posting double digit wins and an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range. His FIP hasn't been lower since his memorable 2005 campaign and his K rates are back into an acceptable range. He won't break out next year, but I do think Livan can certainly be a passable #5 starter.

Garrett Mock (RHP, under team control)

Here we go, from Livan to one of the guys the Nats got for Livan back 2006. After his 2008 season, I felt like Mock was best suited as a reliever for the rest of his career, but I think he took a step forward in 2009. I don't expect him to light the world on fire next year, but I could see him continuing his progression to around a 4.50 ERA or so...not great, but acceptable.

J.D. Martin (RHP, under team control)

I'm a big J.D. Martin fan, but I don't think the Nats should count on him for the rotation next year. His FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he's been lucky this year (and not just a little lucky, either). Unless he can greatly reduce his HRs allowed and increase his K's to at least 5-6 per inning, I don't think Martin will be able to cement himself into a starting role. Long relief, sure, but not a starting role.

Craig Stammen (RHP, under team control)

Looking at Stammen's AAA and ML rate stats, his K rate has dropped at an alarming pace in 2009, from 7-8 K/9 in each level in 2008 down to 3.15 in AAA and 4.08 in the Majors. I'm guessing it has to do with his elbow issues. If that's the case, Stammen could be another breakout candidate in 2010, as he is the anti-Martin in terms of luck-his FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he was unlucky in 2009.

Shairon Martis (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I'm going to get this out of the way: I'm not a Shairon Martis believer. He walked more batters than he struck out this year and somehow earned his 5.25 ERA with a large amount of luck in terms of LOB% and BABIP. Martis is my #1 disappointment candidate for 2010. He'll still only be 23, though, so he has time to get those K rates back up. Then I'll be a believer again.

Collin Balester (RHP, under team control for 2010)

Like Martis, Balester deserved worse than his 2009 numbers. Hard to do when you have a 6.82 ERA, but he did it. Balester is a bounceback candidate for me because he has the physical tools to succeed again.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Brad Meyers

Wait, the Nats have a young pitcher who didn't regress in 2009? Believe it or not, Meyers had an awesome 2009, dominating both high-A ball and AA in about half a season in each. At both levels, he averaged at least 3 K/BB and kept the ball in the yard at an awesome rate, giving up only 3 HR all season. His semi-low innings count this year (136 and 1/3) says that he'll either be up pretty fast or not at all. He won't be a September call-up, because he'll be beyond his limit.

For the record, I do not think Matt Chico or Scott Olsen will be seen in Nats uniforms in 2010. I expect both to be non-tendered this offseason.

2009 production by Nats Starting Pitchers to date: 30-55, 5.07 ERA, 6 CG, 1 shutout, 779 and 2/3 IP, 5.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.485 WHIP

2010 projection: Better peripherals, more innings pitched, similar ERA.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Things we've learned

1) The Caps are awesome.

2) The Nats are not.

That's all I have to say on that subject.

In other news, Philly Killer John Lannan took out Cole Hamels with a bunt last night to add to his list of casualties. Lannan's blinding speed caused Hamels to rush and sprain his ankle. 

The Zim Streak continues and Fangraphs takes a look at it (1 sentence review: CHONE says he can keep it up!!).

Guzman is back from the DL, sending Alberto Gonzalez down to AAA in the process. Fine with me.

Closer-by-committee? Works for me. But how are Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells your closers and not Jason Bergmann? And am I the only one who thinks they gave up on Mock wayyyyyy too early with only 1 bad outing in 4 games (well, 1 bad outing and 1 meh outing).

Shell's gone and Ledezma stays. I really wish that was reversed. Shell is no Mariano Rivera, but he's at least league-average in my book and Ledezma's lack of control makes me want to hurl.

That's all I've got. Better get your umbrellas out so you don't get drooled on by ESPN's Crosby/Ovechkinfest. The single reason why I rooted for NJ to beat Carolina in the first round-so we wouldn't have to put up with this crap.

Edit-link to CBS Sports talking to Nats players about the possibility of Strasburg making a kagillion dollars. Common quote: " 'Good for him,' Josh Willingham said. 'I'm not mad at anyone for getting paid.' "

Correct Opening Day roster set...2 weeks too late

Chico's got the moves:

Added to the roster: Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Kip Wells and Jordan Zimmermann

Removed from the roster: Saul Rivera and Josh Bard (optioned to Syracuse) and Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell (DFA'ed).

I think Colome should be up rather than Wells (and is bringing Kip Wells up really worth losing Steven Shell?) but other than that, the right moves were made.

And Ryan Zimmerman has agreed to terms. Maybe today isn't so bad after all!

EDIT-my first favorite Natinal, Brad Wilkerson, has retired. Best of luck, Brad!

Roster Strategery

From NJ: your Opening Day Nationals

Pitching Rotation 
LHP John Lannan 
LHP Scott Olsen 
RHP Daniel Cabrera 
RHP Shairon Martis

These 4 all deserved to be here. No surprises or disgust here. Z-NN will be up when we need a 5th man in a few weeks.

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard (1B/2B/3B)
Alberto Gonzalez (2B/SS)
Cristian Guzman (SS)
Willie Harris (2B/3B/OF)
Nick Johnson (1B)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

I think the Nats did the right thing here as well when they sent down Casto and Cintron. Both will get another chance at some point during the year.

Bullpen 
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan 
LHP Mike Hinckley 
LHP Wil Ledezma 
RHP Saul Rivera 
RHP Steven Shell 
RHP Julian Tavarez

YUCK! This is poor bullpen management at it's best. 3 LHP is just stupid on all levels, even if Beimel isn't a LOOGY. Tavarez shouldn't have made the pen over Mock or Bergmann (or Colome, even), and one of Hinckley/Ledezma really had to go. Rizzo and Kasten get a F for the bullpen.

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

The front office failed here as well. They brought the best 5 OF they have to the big league squad, that's not the issue. Instead, the issue is that they didn't move a single one of them! I really can't believe they didn't deal off Willingham.

As for the Kearns/Dukes situation, I favor Manny's decision to start Kearns off under 1 condition-it's not permanent. When Dukes' bat gets up to speed, he starts. He's not ready yet, but needs to start when he is.

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

Carrying 3 catchers is stupid in almost every case, but this is just going to be an extended audition between Bard and Nieves until Hernandez comes back. Also, Flores will need time to adjust to ML pitching, as he missed much of ST, so 3 catchers isn't a terrible idea here.

Nats roster almost finalized

According to Ladson, Alex Cintron has accepted an assignment to AAA Syracuse. He also notes that Josh Bard and Wil Nieves will probably both make the team and Kory Casto will be waived today or tomorrow. That leaves the bullpen as the only place not yet decided. 

Chico was right that Bard and Nieves would stay and Cintron and Castro would go and predicts Tavarez, Shell, Hinckley and Bergmann will be the remaining 4 relievers (with Colome, Mock and Ledezma losing out). I think it should be Bergmann, Mock, Colome and Shell, but I think it will be Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Hinckley.

Bergmann has to be a lock now with a 0.00 ERA in 11 and 1/3 innings (although he has allowed 4 unearned runs). I'd have to think Mock's chances are pretty good as well, with a 2.42 ERA in 26 IP as a reliever last year and 3.94 in 16 ST innings this year, so he hasn't done anything to lose his spot. Shell is in the same boat, with a 2.16 ERA last year and a 4.09 in Spring Training. I'd like to see Colome make the team, despite my dislike of his "Human Rain Delay" tactics. He has allowed 1 run in 10 innings in ST and has an impressive 9:0 K:BB ratio (yes, that's right, Colome has not walked anyone in 10 straight innings!). Tavarez has simply sucked in his 2 games and probably needs more seasoning before he plays in the majors this year, so I don't see why he would stick with the big club (and waste another 40-man spot). I don't see why Hinckley would win a spot over Ledezma (although I don't think either should make the team). But there's my rant.

In Ladson's article, he also mentions a possible competition between Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns as the starting RF. While I love Elijah Dukes, I do think that Kearns has earned a job at least every other day somewhere-he's an outstanding fielder and will improve greatly with the bat (he was playing hurt last year, that's why his numbers were so terrible). While Dukes' numbers haven't been terrible in Spring Training (and not that it would matter anyways, because ST stats mean very little), his K rate is alarming-43% of his at-bats! He's being overmatched by pitchers (and Spring Training pitchers at that)...does that not scare anyone else? 

Ideally, I'd like to see Willingham traded and have the ratios go like this:

1B: Johnson-80% of starts, Dunn-20% of starts

LF: Dunn-70% of starts, Kearns-25% of starts, Harris-5% of starts

CF: Milledge-70% of starts, Dukes-15% of starts, Harris-15% of starts

RF: Dukes-60% of starts, Kearns-40% of starts

Giving Johnson starts in 4/5 games, Dunn starts in 9/10 games, Harris in 1/5 (plus some 2B/3B time), Kearns in a little more than 3/5, Milledge in 7/10 and Dukes in a little more than 7/10. We've got 5 good outfielders, we just need a time and place to use them.

Tuesday Thoughts

First of all, I'm disappointed we didn't sign Ray Durham. I wouldn't waste a penny on a bet with 1000 to 1 odds saying Anderson Hernandez will be "good" this year. I might consider "league average" but even that would be a push. Belliard is nice, but Durham is better.

It's good to see guys getting to Viera early. Among the list of early arrivals (from Nats Journal): Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young (who apparently is lookin' good), Scott Olsen, Jason Bergmann, Ross Detwiler, Steven Shell, Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock. I'd like to see guys like Flores, Kearns and Pena get there early to get some extra work in, but it's extremely early for hitters to show up.

Last in the order of business-anyone want to start a Natmosphere fantasy baseball league? I'm in, and FJB and I better not be the only excited ones!

Weekends are wonderful

There's just something about waking up on a Sunday morning, eating a waffle with strawberries and whipped cream and watching football all day. And while I don't have any rooting interest for the two games on TV for me right now (Miami vs. New York Jets and St. Louis vs Philly), they're still fun to watch. The storylines are great: Favre's first game with the Jets, Philly fans being jerks, etc.

Yesterday was a great day for me as well, as the Hokies finally got their first win (does a win against Furman count, though?). And then ECU wrecked West Virginia. Now losing to the Pirates doesn't look so bad...and it's always great to see WVU lose. One of the more random events of my life occured yesterday when Subway's Jared Fogle was introduced on the 20-yard-line during the 1st quarter of the Tech game. As some of you may know, I worked at Subway during high school...so Jared is pretty much the bane of my existance. Still, it's cool to see a random "celebrity" supporting the Hokies.

I know most of my readers are used to seeing me blog about the Nats, but I can't watch games at school, so it's pretty much impossible to say much that hasn't already been said by other blogs. I'll still try to keep up with the Nats, though. After watching last night's highlights, I wasn't sure I was watching the same team. 5 homers? Boy, Dukes and Zim have been hitting the tar out of the ball. Harris' career year continues. They better keep him around for next year. It's nice to see Langerhans get some redemption against his former team, too.

I'm not too surprised Bergmann has been bounced from the rotation. I love Bergy and I hate him at the same time. He's either going to shut down the other team completely or get destroyed (and lately, it's been the latter). I have a feeling he'll be in the rotation next year nonetheless (just a feeling, but I doubt Martis will be in the rotation next year to start the year, Zimmermann maybe), but I like Bergmann out of the pen. Also good to see in the same article that Mock has a 2.35 ERA as a reliever. He and Hanrahan both have great stuff and with the two of them, we might have a decent back of the bullpen in a year or two. If Mock can develop into a nice setup man (sorry, Saul, but you're better in the 7th), I like our pen.

One last bit-On Mondays, I'll be posting stuff about my Fantasy Football teams. I know many of you won't care so much, but I'm just looking for things I'll be able to update throughout the winter when things are slow on the baseball front. I've got 5 teams, so there is going to be a lot of opportunities for material there.