Nationals "Optimal" Lineups

Based on MARCEL projections (no access to PECOTA, had to choose between that, ZiPS and Bill James).

Done through Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis.

Special thanks to Royals Review for the idea.

Here are the baseline numbers I put in:

The "optimal" lineup is always:

1) Werth

2) Zimmerman

3) Desmond

4) Laroche

5) Morse

6) Ankiel

7) Espinosa

8) Pitcher

9) Rodriguez

When Livan Hernandez starts: 4.317 runs/game

When John Lannan starts: 4.238 runs/game

When Jordan Zimmermann starts: 4.292 runs/game

When Jason Marquis starts: 4.410 runs/game

When Tom Gorzellany starts: 4.132 runs/game

Thoughts:

The Nats have fairly good hitting pitchers in Hernandez, Zimmermann and Marquis.

The Nats have fairly terrible hitting hitters, as FJB pointed out on Friday.

I came up with 693 as the Nats' run projection. They scored 655 last year. On paper this is good, but it fails to take into account injuries, failure to progress, on/off seasons, pinch hitters, DH games, etc. I'm not optimistic that the 2011 Nats will outscore last year's version.

Replacing Pudge with Ramos would improve the Nats by .161 runs/game.

Morse's projection looks awfully optimistic, but Werth's and Zimmerman's look at least a little pessimistic.

Feel free to run your own projections on the site linked at the top and talk about them in the comments section. If you want some things to read about the pros/cons of hitting the pitcher 8th, here are some articles.

We all need to step it up

Our offseason grade so far is F; we have lost two huge pieces to retirement. As you might remember, Brian from NFA retired from blogging back in September and yesterday Steven from FJB hung up his keys, retiring from the blogging world. I am as guilty (actually, more guilty) as anyone in a lack of posting, with only 43 posts this year and none since August. What I will pledge to do, though, is step up my game in the future.

I'm never going to be an every-day blogger. I don't really have the desire to do so. There are rah-rah blogs for every team out there, and the Nats don't need another (although they do need something to cheer for!). What we need to do is strive, across the board, for more in-depth posting. Some of you are already doing your part, and I'm not saying regular posters are slacking off, but rather that we need to pick up the slack from NFA and FJB. The Natmosphere has light years ahead of the Nats in performance, and we need to keep our standards high as the team improves.

I'm excited to write my first substantial post this week as soon as the minor league free agent list is published (Matt Eddy from Baseball America said it would be posted as soon as MLB provides it to them). My challenge to the rest of the Natmosphere, even if you have been inactive like me, is to come up with a strong and informative post by the end of the month.

We've heard the same thing a million time from all perspectives concerning Adam Dunn's pending free agency. Let Dunn walk-ers, explore scenarios where the Nats offense could improve even with losing Adam Dunn. Keep Dunn at all cost-ers, try to find comparisons to Dunn that have aged well or prove to us that there is no other option on the market anywhere near his value. People bored with the Dunn story, try to play matchmaker with guys rumored to be on the trading block or write a heartfelt letter begging Cliff Lee (or whoever you want the Nats to sign) to come to Washington. Just write something original. We've lost two awesome bloggers in just over 2 months, Nats bloggers. We need to step things up.

Harper signs, plus draft pick updates

Stan Kasten pie-ing Mike Rizzo in the face to celebrate the Harper signing. Tweeted by Nats Daily News.

The wait is over; Bryce Harper is officially a Washington National. It is no surprise that he waited until the last second to finalize his $9.9 million contract (total, not all signing bonus). Everyone knew Harper was going to sign, so we'll move right along to some information people might want access to: the professional performances of 2010 Nats draft picks. Part 1 happened last night, so we'll just pick up where we left off!

OF Connor Rowe - 21st round (Texas)

Hitting .234/.280/.416 in 24 games in Vermont. 18 hits in 77 at-bats with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 11 runs, 11 RBI, 4 walks and 27 strikeouts. Rowe has been thrown out in 2 of his 3 stolen base attempts. He has 2 assists from center field but 3 errors in only 44 total chances in the outfield.

Hitting isn't Rowe's best tool, but a 4:27 BB:K ratio just doesn't cut it for a non-pitcher, especially one hitting .234. I have no issue attributing Rowe's errors to a small sample size. He'll be a good defensive CF, it's just his bat we need to worry about.

RHP Cameron Selik - 22nd round (Kansas)

1-0, 3.04 ERA in 13 games in Vermont (23 and 2/3 innings). 21 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), 23 strikeouts, 13 walks, 1 homer allowed, .228 BA against.

Selik is doing what he needs to do right now, but he needs to walk less batters while maintaining his strikeout rate if he wants to climb levels. A nice start, though!

RHP Colin Bates - 23rd round (North Carolina)

3-3, 5.26 ERA in 11 games in Vermont (37 and 2/3 innings). 44 hits, 24 runs (22 earned), 35 strikeouts, 6 walks, 3 homers allowed, .291 BA against.

Bates has the BB and K rates we're looking for, but has been a little too hittable so far. For a guy whose best tool as described by Andy Seiler, "is a rubber arm that can be used on a regular basis out of the bullpen," I'll take the 1.4 BB/9 rate and run with it.

DH Russell Moldenhauer - 24th round (Texas)

Hitting .234/.366/.506 in 23 games in Vermont. 18 hits in 77 at-bats with 3 doubles, 6 homers, 17 runs, 19 RBI, 16 walks and 16 strikeouts. Moldenhauer is 1/1 in his stolen base attempts. He hasn't played the field at all.

The plate discipline and power are nice, don't get me wrong, but we have to find this guy a position to play (even if it's inside linebacker for the Redskins). The fact that he's DHing in A ball does not speak volumes about his future in a National League organization.

LHP Christian Meza - 25th round (Santa Ana College)

1-2, 1.83 ERA in 8 games in the GCL (19 and 2/3 innings). 12 hits, 7 runs (4 earned), 20 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 homer allowed, .174 BA against.

Meza has pitched extremely well. His 5.5 H/9 rate is completely unsustainable, but his 9.2 K/9 looks nice. Hopefully he can keep it that way while lowering his BB rate from 3.7 to 3 or lower.

LHP Chris Manno - 26th round (Duke)

0-0, 1.46 ERA in 8 games in the GCL (12 and 1/3 innings). 6 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), 20 strikeouts, 6 walks, .143 BA against.

Like I said about 11th rounder Neil Holland yesterday, Manno's deceptive delivery means he needs to be getting hitters out at all levels, especially low ones. He's killing the GCL right now, which is a good sign. Manno is one to watch-I wouldn't be surprised if he shot up through the organization this year and next.

OF Rick Hughes - 29th round (Marin CC)

Hitting .266/.365/.406 in 19 games split between Vermont and the GCL (16 of 19 in the GCL). 17 hits in 64 at-bats with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 13 runs, 9 RBI, 9 walks and 21 strikeouts. Hughes is 2/3 in his stolen base attempts. He has 1 OF assist and no errors in the field yet.

Hughes hasn't really shown us anything yet. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but his stat line is very average, especially for a 20 year old playing mostly in the GCL.

C Jeremy Mayo - 31st round (Texas Tech)

Hitting .267/.382/.477 in 28 games in the GCL. 23 hits in 86 at-bats with 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 18 runs, 13 RBI, 15 walks and 26 strikeouts. Mayo was caught in his only stolen base attempt.

While Mayo's offensive numbers look nice, his defensive numbers are disappointing, with 3 errors, 8 passed balls and only 5 basestealers thrown out in 25 attempts. He'll need to improve them if he wants to keep moving up in the system.

OF Randolph Oduber - 32nd round (Western Oklahoma State JC)

Hitting .375/.445/.616 in 29 games in the GCL. 42 hits in 112 at-bats with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 4 homers, 26 runs, 29 RBI, 11 walks and 27 strikeouts. Oduber is 15/16 in his stolen base attempts. He has 2 outfield assists and has made no errors this year.

If an MVP of Nats draft picks had to be picked right now, Oduber would be the winner, no doubt. His stat lines look like those of the 2006 version of Alfonso Soriano when compared to the rest of his teammates. Lots of power, lots of speed...he's an exciting prospect to watch.

LHP Ryan Sherriff - 33rd round (West Los Angeles JC)

Still hasn't pitched this year. Not sure what the deal is. Brian from NFA posted back in June that Sherriff was the one discrepancy in a re-released list of picks to sign, so maybe he didn't sign after all.

1B Tyler Oliver - 35th round (Wabash Valley JC)

Hitting .219/.318/.288 in 25 games in the GCL. 16 hits in 73 at-bats with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 8 runs, 11 RBI, 11 walks and 19 strikeouts. Oliver stole a base on his only chance. He has made only 1 error in 125 chances at 1B so far.

Oliver must have used up all of his homers this spring when he hit 30. 73 at-bats is way too small of a sample size to declare his power gone, but it would be nice to see some improvement before the season ends.

OF Wander Nunez - 36th round (Western Oklahoma State JC)

Hitting .234/.318/.330 in 30 games in the GCL. 22 hits in 94 at-bats with 1 double, 4 triples, 11 runs, 10 RBI, 7 walks and 19 strikeouts. Wander has no homers and is 4/5 in his SB attempts. He has 2 OF assists and has made no errors in 41 total chances.

Nunez is a toolsy type, so it's no surprise he has a bunch of triples, steals and nice fielding numbers. He needs to start hitting to move up, though.

LHP Nick Serino - 37th round (University of Massachusetts)

2-2, 2.70 ERA in 11 games in the GCL (16 and 2/3 innings). 13 hits, 6 runs (5 earned), 18 strikeouts, 2 walks, .206 BA against.

2 walks in 16 and 2/3 innings? Sweeeeeeeeeet. Serino can keep moving up pretty quickly with control like this.

RHP Kevin Cahill - 41st round (Purdue)

0-1, 4.15 ERA in 10 games in Vermont (17 and 1/3 innings). 17 hits, 8 runs (8 earned), 24 strikeouts, 9 walks, .254 BA against.

Cahill is pitching well in Vermont. His walk numbers are a little high, but his strikeout numbers are very impressive.

OF Rashad Hatcher - 49th round (Patrick Henry CC)

Hitting .138/.194/.138 in 22 games in the GCL. 4 hits in 29 at-bats with 3 runs, 3 RBI, 2 walks and 11 strikeouts. Yet to get an extra base hit or steal a base, although he was caught once. Hatcher has successfully played all 15 chances in the field he's gotten.

Hatcher has been pretty bad, but it's still only 29 at-bats. Not sure why he's gotten so little playing time, but he could fall off the radar soon if he doesn't start hitting.

Now onto some undrafted free agents:
RHP Mike Gallo (Milligan College)

0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in 10 games (15 innings) in the GCL. 22 hits, 23 runs (18 earned), 5 homers allowed, 11 strikeouts, 8 walks, .314 BA against.

Mike is a friend of the program, so he gets to go first. His first stint in the GCL has been pretty discouraging, but his BB and K rate stats aren't awful. If Mike starts to keep the ball in the yard like he did in college, he'll be back on the right track.

IF Mills Rogers (Carson-Newman College)
Hitting .254/.370/.331 in 37 games in the GCL. 33 hits in 130 at-bats with 20 doubles, 1 triple, 22 runs, 22 RBI, 23 walks and 25 strikeouts. Rogers has stolen 3 out of the 4 bases he's tried at. He has 4 errors in the field between 46 total chances at SS and 3B, but has been errorless in 216 total chances at 1B.

RHP Tim Dupuis (Assumption College)

1-1 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 games (15 and 2/3 innings) in the GCL. 18 hits, 8 runs (8 earned), 12 strikeouts, 2 walks, .295 BA against.

Me likey the no-walkie.

RHP Zach Gerler (Austin Peay University)

0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in 9 games (12 innings) in the GCL. 11 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), 8 strikeouts, 5 walks, .250 BA against. Gerler has also hit 5 batters.

Not a bad start for Gerler, but not a great one either. I may sound like a broken record, but he needs to strike out more and walk less. Easier said than done, though.

RHP Ben Graham (Emporia State)

3-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 14 games (27 and 1/3 innings) in Vermont and Hagerstown. 22 hits, 9 runs (8 earned), 24 strikeouts, 5 walks, 3 homers allowed, .210 BA against.

Graham is off to an impressive start, moving all the way up to Hagerstown already (where he has pitched 21 of his 27 and 1/3 total innings). Batters are having a tough time with him, but they hit the ball hard when they get a hold of his pitches. Nice work by Graham to start yis pro career, though!

RHP Shane Zellers (Undrafted FA-Alvernia University)

1-0 with a 5.19 ERA in 14 games (17 and 1/3 innings) in Vermont. 20 hits, 10 runs (10 earned), 13 strikeouts, 8 walks, 3 homers allowed, .282 BA against.

Zellers is doing about what you would expect from an undrafted free agent. Not bad, but certainly room for improvement. Zellers has thrown 7 straight shutout innings, though, so that's a good sign.

RHP Brandon Meister (Miami (OH))

0-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 7 games (6 and 2/3 innings) in the GCL. 5 hits, 2 runs (2 earned), 8 strikeouts, 0 walks, .208 BA against.

Meister doesn't have a whole lot of appearances, but I'm digging the 8 K and 0 BB thing. Let's keep that going, Mister Meister.

RHP Billy Ott (Cal State Northridge)

2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 9 games (31 innings) in the GCL and Hagerstown. 24 hits, 10 runs (9 earned), 24 strikeouts, 5 walks, .218 BA against.

Ott has also made it up to Hagerstown, where he has struggled a bit. He dominated the GCL, though, with a 1.17 ERA and a 19:3 K:BB ratio.

LHP Ryan Demmin (Minnesota State/Wisconsin-Oshkosh)

1-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 10 games (18 and 1/3 innings) with Vermont. 16 hits, 3 runs (3 earned), 20 strikeouts, 6 walks, .239 BA against.

Demmin is off to a great start in Vermont. He has especially done well against lefties, holding them to a .207 batting average.

32 signed, 1 to go

The Nats have signed 32 of their 2010 draft picks, including 24 of their top 26. That number will reach 25 when Bryce Harper signs, as forecast expert Ollie Williams predicts. The Nats went over slot over the weekend to sign 2nd, 4th and 12th round pitchers Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray. All other Nats picks who have signed have played in the minors except 33rd round LHP Ryan Sherriff. Here is a recap on how the other draft picks have fared in their professional baseball debuts (recaps for rounds 21 on as well as undrafted FA signings will be posted tomorrow).

SS Rick Hague - 3rd round (Rice)

Hitting .289/.362/.388 in 30 games between the GCL and Hagerstown. 35 hits in 121 at-bats with 6 doubles, 3 triples, 22 runs, 16 RBI, 15 walks and 24 strikeouts. Hague is 3/4 on stolen base opportunities and still has not hit a home run. He has 13 errors on 92 total chances at SS.

Hague's calling card is the ability to do everything pretty well, but nothing great. I'd like to see a little more power, but he has plenty of time to develop that. His fielding stats are scary-bad right now, but I'm not worried yet. He is looking decent so far.

SS Jason Martinson - 5th round (Texas State)

Hitting .241/.344/.321 in 51 games in Vermont. 45 hits in 187 at-bats with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 28 runs, 20 RBI, 28 walks and 52 strikeouts. Martinson is 3/5 on stolen base opportunities and still has not hit a home run. He has 13 errors on 208 total chances at SS.

Martinson's bat was considered his weakest piece, so it's a little disappointing to see his poor contact rates and lack of power at this point (although his power was never supposed to be that great). His season is far from a train-wreck, with an OBP over .100 above his batting average, but Martinson has a ways to grow in the minors. His .938 fielding percentage isn't anything to be afraid of yet, but he does need to cut down on the errors.

C Cole Leonida - 6th round (Georgia Tech)

Hitting .138/.225/.175 in 23 games in Vermont. 11 hits in 80 at-bats with 3 doubles, 11 runs, 3 RBI, 8 walks and 25 strikeouts. Leonida has no triples, home runs or stolen base attempts. He has 2 errors in 172 total chances behind the plate with 3 passed balls. He has only stopped 6 out of 25 base stealers.

It looks like Leonida missed the first 10 days of August due to injury (and was in a 2/23 slump going in), and I think it's fair to assume at least part of his poor performance is a reason. His defense is supposed to be more advanced than his bat, so we'll have to keep an eye on his stolen base and passed ball numbers after the season.

OF Kevin Keyes - 7th round (University of Texas)

Hitting .203/.347/.284 in 24 games in Vermont. 15 hits in 74 at-bats with 3 doubles, 1 homer, 7 runs, 13 RBI, 15 walks and 22 strikeouts. Keyes has been thrown out in 2 of his 3 stolen base attempts. He has made 1 error in 32 total chances in the outfield (mostly LF) with 2 assists.

Where's the power? 24 games is a small sample size to judge, but 4 extra base hits is disappointing for a guy whose power was his only above average tool.

LHP Matthew Grace - 8th round (UCLA)

0-1, 7.90 ERA in 7 GCL games (13 and 2/3 innings). 20 hits, 16 runs (12 earned), 7 strikeouts, 2 walks, .345 BA against. Grace had one terrible game where he allowed 8 runs without recording an out. In all of his other games, he has allowed 13 hits and 8 runs (4 earned), good for a 2.63 ERA. He's not walking anyone, but his strikeout numbers aren't that impressive, either.

Grace is tagged as only a future LOOGY by both John Sickels and Andy Seiler, so it's important to look at his vs L numbers as well: 2 and 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 5 runs (3 earned), 0 walks, 1 strikeout with a .273 BA against. Not super encouraging, but not a total disaster. Remember, it's only 13 and 2/3 innings pitched.

RHP Aaron Barrett - 9th round (Ole Miss)

0-2, 9.26 ERA in 7 games in Vermont (11 and 2/3 innings). 13 hits, 14 runs (12 earned), 16 strikeouts, 12 walks, 2 homers allowed, .271 BA against.

Barrett's consistency was often questioned by draft experts, and I can see why. He can show up in any game with his A stuff or his D stuff...looks like he's been showing a lot more of the latter this year. He was a senior, so I had hoped he would have been more advanced, but again it's too early to call his poor performance much more than disappointing.

IF Blake Kelso - 10th round (Houston)

Hitting .316/.362/.380 in 42 games in Vermont. 50 hits in 158 at-bats with 8 doubles, 1 triple, 18 runs, 18 RBI, 12 walks and 13 strikeouts. Kelso has stolen 5 out of the 6 bases he's attempted this year. He has made 7 errors in 149 total chances across the infield, with 2B being his best position (.971 fielding percentage).

Finally, someone I can be really optimistic about! Kelso has Jamey Carroll written all over him, and has really impressed me so far. His ability to hit at higher levels is still a question mark, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

RHP Neil Holland - 11th round (Louisville)

2-0, 1.85 ERA in 14 games in Vermont (24 and 1/3 innings). 21 hits, 7 runs (5 earned), 30 strikeouts, 6 walks, 1 homer allowed, .233 BA against.

The sidewinding righty is doing exactly what he needs to be doing right now. His deceptive delivery needs to fool A-ball hitters if he wants it to fool ML batters, so he's starting on the right track. And for the record, I'm a big fan of the 5:1 K:BB ratio.

RHP Chris McKenzie - 13th round (San Jacinto College North)

1-2, 8.54 ERA in 8 games in Vermont (26 and 1/3 innings). 40 hits, 29 runs (25 earned), 22 strikeouts, 12 walks, 2 homers allowed, .357 BA against.

McKenzie supposedly has good stuff, but it's been far too hittable in Vermont so far. Lowering the BB rate and raising the K rate could help him out to start, but when you're allowing 13.7 H/9, you need more than just that.

C David Freitas - 15th round (Hawaii)

Hitting .327/.408/.497 in 46 games in Vermont. 54 hits in 165 at-bats with 16 doubles, 4 homers, 28 runs, 34 RBI, 20 walks and 32 strikeouts. He's even 2/2 in stolen bases! Freitas has thrown out 12 of the 32 runners who have tried stealing on him this year (38%) and has 1 error and 1 passed ball.

Freitas is apparently taking advantage of Leonida's struggles, with an impressive combination of contact, power and discipline. He was seen by many as an overdraft, so it's nice to see him prove the doubters wrong...to start, at least.

RHP Mark Herrera - 16th round (San Jacinto College North)

2-1, 3.04 ERA in 12 games in Vermont (23 and 2/3 innings). 19 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), 30 strikeouts, 8 walks, .221 BA against.

Herrera has fared a lot better in his pro debut than his JuCo teammate McKenzie despite not having the raw talent. How is he getting people out? Don't know, don't care, as long as he keeps doing it.

RHP Tyler Hanks - 17th round (College of Southern Nevada)

4-0, 2.54 ERA in 8 games in the GCL (28 and 1/3 innings). 28 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), 21 strikeouts, 5 walks, 2 homers allowed, .264 BA against.

Hanks was a nice pick in the 17th round and looks to be doing pretty well against rookie ball opponents. I'd like to see him challenged a little bit, since he is one of the more talented pitchers taken by the Nats in this draft.

2B Justin Miller - 18th round (Middle Tennessee St.)

Hitting .261/.354/.423 in 37 games in Vermont. 29 hits in 111 at-bats with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 homers, 24 runs, 18 RBI, 8 walks and 26 strikeouts. Miller is 2/3 in his stolen base attempts. He has committed 6 errors in only 42 chances; his infield work needs practice while his time in left field has been flawless.

He's doing well so far considering he projects to be a organizational or utility type of player. If he wants to separate himself, he needs to work to make one of his tools above-average, whether it be contact, speed, discipline or fielding.

OF Wade Moore - 19th round (Catawba College)

Hitting .278/.380/.391 in 51 games in Vermont. 47 hits in 169 at-bats with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers, 29 runs, 24 RBI, 27 walks and 38 strikeouts. Moore is 13/14 in his stolen base attempts and has only committed 3 errors in 104 total chances this season.

Moore is a guy on my list to watch. He has been hitting lefthanded pitchers for a higher average and OBP than righties despite being a lefty himself. It will be interesting to see whether or not that stays. I like a lefty bat who can get on base and steal second. Maybe Nyjer should take base-stealing tips from Moore.

OF Chad Mozingo - 20th round (Rice)

Hitting .238/.351/.306 in 41 games in Vermont. 38 hits in 160 at-bats with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 27 runs, 12 RBI, 29 walks and 30 strikeouts. Mozingo is 6/9 in his stolen base attempts and has been almost flawless in CF and LF, with 1 error (and 3 assists) in 82 total chances.

Mozingo can take a walk, play the field and could grow into being a decent base-stealer. But until he can learn to put the ball in play, his ML future is limited.

Nats to sign Solis and Cole

According to Baseball America's Jim Callis, the Nats have agreed to terms with 2nd round pick Sammy Solis ($1 mil) and 4th round pick A.J. Cole ($2 mil). I am ecstatic.

-Before today, I had zero confidence the Nats would get something done with Cole, simply because I had heard nothing at all on his negotiations.

-12th round pick Robbie Ray visited Nats Park over the weekend...will meeting Strasburg and getting his own personalized Nats jersey be enough to get him to sign? If so, the Nats will end up signing 25 of their top 26 picks (because there is no way Bryce Harper goes back to school). The only one missing would be 14th rounder Tim Smalling, who is returning to Virginia Tech due to an injured shoulder, which brought down the Nats' contract offer. Well done, Rizzo and crew.

Who is Wilson Ramos?

The newest member of the Washington Nationals, that's who! The Nats made their first splash on the trade market Thursday night, moving All-Star closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos and lefthanded pitcher Joe Testa. The 22 year old Venezuelan catcher hit .296/.321/.407 in 7 games for the Twins this year, but struggled in 71 games in AA, to the tune of .241/.280/.345. The 24 year old New Jerseyan reliever burned through low levels of the minors after being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2008, but has been hit hard in his first stay in AA this year, allowing 22 earned runs in 25 innings.

Ramos' rankings amongst all prospects:

#42: Keith Law of ESPN (1/28/2010)

#58: Baseball America (2/23/2010)

#65: Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (3/3/2010)

Ramos' rankings amongst Twins prospects

#2 overall prospect, best power hitter, best defensive catcher: Baseball America (1/12/2010)

#2 overall prospect, Marc Hulet, Fangraphs (12/14/2009)

#2 overall prospect, Josh Johnson, Josh's Thoughts (4/16/2010)

#4 overall prospect: John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall.com (10/19/2009)

Winter League Player of the Year: Baseball America (3/5/2010)

Notes on Ramos:

"Grade B-. Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate." John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall.com (10/19/2009)

"The Venezuela native isn’t far from being MLB-ready after hitting .317/.341/.454 in ’09 at double-A. Ramos has always hit for a solid average, but he’s also consistently produced healthy BABIPs, although many catchers suffer from chronically-low numbers in that area (due to a lack of foot speed). A catcher with raw power, he has nonetheless failed to post an ISO above .149 in his four-year career. Ramos also posted a walk rate of just 2.8% in ’09, so that obviously has to improve and he typically walks about 7.0%. His strikeout rate plummeted from 22.8% in ’08 to 11.2% in ’09, but injuries took a chunk out of his season and he had just 214 plate appearances. We’ll have to wait for 2010 to see if that was a true adjustment, or a small-sample-size blip. Behind the dish, Ramos has thrown out +40% in each of the past three seasons." Marc Hulet, Fangraphs (12/14/2009)

"While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running." David Golbiewski, Fangraphs (5/3/2010)

"A key factor for Ramos going forward will be learning when to use his aggressiveness, strength and bat speed, and when to lay off pitches. His plate discipline showed signs of improvement in winter ball. Overall, after drawing just six walks in 224 at-bats during the minor league regular season, Ramos drew 29 in 273 at-bats in Venezuela." John Manuel, Baseball America (3/5/2010)

"Ramos' offensive prowess is mostly what he is known for, but Ramos is also a stout defender behind the plate. Pitchers like the way he calls the game and his strong arm makes it hard for base runners to steal on him." Josh Johnson, Josh's Thoughts (4/16/2010)

"Even if this year's struggles can be chalked up to some bad luck, however, Ramos is far from a sure thing as a prospect. His walk rates, while along his career norm, are still very low. For his professional career, Ramos has walked just 82 times in 5 seasons, spanning over 1400 plate appearances and coinciding with 242 strikeouts. Without the power to compensate such free-swinging tendencies, Ramos will have to hit for a high average in the majors in order to avoid being an out-making machine. Whether or not he is able to adjust to major league pitching and curtail his tendency to hack away at the plate will ultimately determine his career path as a major leaguer, but his Mendoza Line-straddling batting average this year in Triple-A is no more a prediction than was his red-hot major league debut." MLB Prospect Watch (7/6/2010)

"On the other hand, Wilson Ramos has been totally overmatched by Triple-A pitching, posting a hideous 41-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio while hitting just .208/.244/.319 in 52 games. Ramos showed reasonable enough plate discipline in the low minors, but since advancing to Double-A last year he has 14 walks and 64 strikeouts in 106 games. He's making contact at a palatable rate, but the total lack of patience is disturbing along with a .427 career slugging percentage.

Ramos remains a very solid prospect largely due to projecting as a good defensive catcher, but it was always wishful thinking to assume he was even close to an MLB-ready impact bat and that notion now looks silly. With that said, he's still just 22 years old and has fewer than 450 plate appearances above Single-A, so there's no need to sour on Ramos too much." Aaron Gleeman (7/7/2010)

Here are Wilson Ramos' Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference links.

Not a whole lot on Testa.

He had a Q and A with SethSpeaks.net in 2009: "I throw a fastball, curve, slider, change up and a cutter. I’d say my out pitch would be my fastball and cutter. I’ve been working a lot more on my off speed pitches and my pick off move."

Bleacher Report (via Baseball News Share, as the original article has been taken down) had him as the 49th Twins prospect in 2010. Top insight: "He doesn’t have great velocity on any of his pitches, in fact he tops out around 90 mph, but he does fool hitters with outstanding movement."

Here are Joe Testa's Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference links.

Getting a top 50-75 prospect in return for a non-elite closer is a great deal in my opinion. Getting an interesting lefty as well is icing on the cake. Well done, Mike Rizzo. Best of luck in Minnesota, Matt Capps.

3 reasons why the Nationals should avoid Edwin Jackson like the plague

MLB Trade Rumors first reported a month ago yesterday that the Nats were interested in Edwin Jackson. I thought the interest was just going to blow over, as teams have "interest" in dozens of players at any given time. But on Saturday, Jackson's name was tied to the Nats again. And yesterday, Tim Dierkes reported on two different rumors, one where the Nats would get Jackson in a 3-way deal that would send Adam Dunn to the White Sox and another where the Nats would simply acquire Jackson for prospects. There are more than just 3 reasons I think making a move for Edwin Jackson would be a bad idea, but these are 3 reasons I think are specific to the Nats.

1. In a deal for Dunn, Jackson is worth less to the Nats than an elite prospect would be.

Daniel Hudson alone is worth more than Edwin Jackson to me. If the Nats can snag him alone for Dunn, they've made out okay at least. If, as rumored, they can come up with another nice prospect like Danks/Flowers/Morel, or even a guy a tier below that, they've blown a Jackson-for-Dunn deal out of the water. The prospects they can get back for Dunn can come close to Jackson's performance right off the bat, but will also be controllable (and cheaper) for many more seasons. This leads into my next point.

2. Jackson is expensive and only controllable through 2011.

Jackson signed a 2 year, $13.35 million extension with the Diamondbacks in February, with $8.35 of the payment planned for the 2011 season. He stood at 4 years and 70 days of ML service time going into the 2010 season and is more or less a lock to hit the 6 years of service time needed to reach unrestricted free agency at some point next year (thanks to Cot's for the info).

While Jackson is on the borderline between Type A and Type B status in Eddie Bajek's latest Elias Rankings Update on MLB Trade Rumors, his value there is trending downwards. It stands at 70.663 now while it stood at 73.050 on July 14 and 74.41 on May 23 (a score of 71.5 is currently the cut-off in the NL between types A and B). Jackson will need to repeat (or better) his 2009 performance in 2011 to be a type A, as the rankings only take into account the last 2 seasons. The Elias Rankings involve some combination of games, innings pitched, wins, ERA and K's, and Jackson's win total and ERA this year have seriously underwhelmed. He'll have to work himself back towards the 13-9 record and 3.62 ERA he put up last year to make it back.

While there is always a chance the Nats retain him into his free agent years, he's not worth as much to the team them. You trade for young pitchers in part to try and get as many years out of them as you can at less than market value. Once pitchers hit free agency, you start paying true value or more for them.

3. Jackson is potentially overworked.

This is my biggest beef with Jackson. Not every pitcher is made equal, and I certainly am not an expert on pitching, but if I had a penny for every red flag there is concerning Jackson's workload, I would be a rich man.

Jackson's 149 pitch no-hitter leads the league in pitches thrown by 17. He's atop the charts by an obscene amount in total Pitcher Abuse Points (151623 to second place Roy Halladay's 84331). You can check out this Baseball Prospectus sortable stats page if you want to sort through these things yourselves.

Some pitchers, Livan Hernandez for example, can handle a lot of Pitcher Abuse Points. But the Nats are paying Livan $900k. If I'm paying a guy $8 million+, I want to know for sure that he isn't damaged goods.

(Some links on Jackson's workload: 6/2009 (Baseball Daily Digest), 6/2010 (FJB), 6/2010 (Sabernomics), 7/2010 (AZ Central)

If the Nats could acquire him for a combination of fading prospects like Shairon Martis and middle relievers like Sean Burnett and Joel Peralta, sure. Jackson can an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter But if the Nats have to give up Adam Dunn or anyone that sniffs their top 15 prospects for him, I'll pass.

2 more draft pick signings to look at

(Kevin Keyes via John Sickels' Minor League Ball)

Since my last update, the Nats have signed 2 outfielders: 7th rounder Kevin Keyes and 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber. Keyes has been verified by the Nats official site. Oduber, on the other hand, has been reported on by Gastonia Gazette but not by the Nats yet. Once again, if you missed the earlier editions, here are parts one, two, three and four plus an extended look at undrafted FA signing Mike Gallo).

OF Kevin Keyes (7th round-University of Texas)

Keyes was widely seen as a top 100 player looking toward the 2010 draft, but weight and position issues tanked his value all the way to the 7th round. Keyes hit .311/.384/.550 with 15 homers in 63 games this year, with 27 BB and 46 K, even stealing 14 bases in 17 attempts. Thanks to NFA commenter David in Midlothian for pointing out his signing!

Sickels (6/13/10): "He has very strong power potential and a good throwing arm, but got fat last summer, lost athleticism and speed, and didn't get all of it back this spring, killing his defensive value and reputation with scouts."

Sickels (3/17/10): "Keyes doesn't run as well as he did when I saw him last year and he needs to be careful: if he picks up much more weight, he won't run well enough to play the outfield. That said, he did get a good jump and showed some legs with a successful steal attempt, so I don't think his speed is a lost cause as long as he keeps his conditioning up. I never did get a good read on his throwing arm and he wasn't significantly challenged on any of the defensive plays. His bat, however, looks special. He had the best power of anyone on the field, and he has a good hit tool too, showing he can pull the ball for power but also take the pitcher to the opposite field when necessary. He jumps on hittable fastballs, but will lay off curveballs and sliders he can't handle. Main weakness was against changeups: he will chase them, and toning that down will be necessary in pro ball. He makes an effort to work the count. I like him and see him as a possible supplemental round hitter."

Sickels (3/14/10): "He can pull the ball for power, or take it to the opposite field. He makes a good effort to control the strike zone and has plenty of bat speed. He's thickened up a bit and doesn't run quite as well as he did when I saw him last spring, but if he can avoid further weight gain I think he can remain in the outfield. I didn't get a read on his arm but will concentrate on that this afternoon."

Seiler (6/17/10): "Keyes was looking like a potential top fifty pick in this class a little over a year ago, but he became out of shape in the summer playing on the Cape last summer, and he never really recovered. As you can tell by his frame, he's a big, powerful guy whose only above-average tool is his plus power, but he does everything else well enough to possibly be a starting right fielder. He's going to have to stay on top of his conditioning, but I like this pick for value here. His season just ended over the weekend, so I expect him to sign fairly soon, as he'd be hard-pressed to improve upon this slot next year."

Seiler (4/29/10): "Keyes has been fairly well-known on the prospect scene for awhile, and he was a 26th round draft pick of the Rangers coming out of Connally High School in 2007. He didn't play much of a role during his freshman year, but he really turned some heads with an impressive sophomore year with the Longhorns. However, he imploded on the Cape, looking tired after a long season that included a trip to the College World Series. He ended up gaining weight, leading to a temporary assignment to first base in the fall. However, he's back in right field now, and he seems to have gained back some of the athleticism he lost over the last year-plus. He features above-average raw power and a fringe-average hit tool, and when he's at his best and in shape, he's an average runner. However, he's going to be a corner outfielder at any level, but he has a big enough arm to handle right field, while having average range. He's not having the best season, but he's still an attractive prospect, especially in a thin college class"

I asked Andy in his 6/19/10 All Questions Answered thread, "Do you think Kevin Keyes will ultimately be an ML starter, or do you think his lack of secondary tools will keep him from getting there?" to which he answered, "I don’t think he makes it, but he has the tools. His power is a true plus, but with his frame, it’s going to be hard to keep him in right field unless he stays on top of his conditioning. There are still questions about whether he can hit with wood, too."

Brian Oliver (6/10/10): "Guy looks like a linebacker. Big swinger = big homers and big strikeouts. Nats listed him as a RF but he has also played 1B. He should be fun to watch in a HR derby kind of way. Middle of the order guy for Vermont."

OF Randolph Oduber (32nd round-Western Oklahoma State)

The Groovin' Aruban hit .472/.526/.995 with 32 HR, 98 RBI and 49 total extra base hits in 218 at bats. His 25/27 SB success rate is encouraging as well. He struck out 46 times with just 21 walks, so there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Seiler (6/17/10): "Oduber was a late-round pick by the Giants a year ago, and I thought he'd be drafted in the teens this year. However, after a late commitment to Oklahoma State, who raided the junior college level this year, dropped his stock. He has above-average raw power and can run, so he could go much higher next year if he figures it out. I don't think he'll sign."

Seiler (7/18/09): "I liked Oduber more than his teammate Cotton who was picked twenty rounds higher by the Giants. Oduber’s got solid pro tools, and I thought the only thing that held him back from being picked in the top 15 rounds was the fact that he was a JUCO freshman. He is 20 already, but he won’t sign since he went so far down."

I'd like to see some international free agents sign with the Nats, but getting some guys like Hanks, Oduber and Nunez that we might not have expected to sign is nice, too.

Nats sign 4 more picks

Three Nats draft picks have signed on the dotted line in the last few days: Connor Rowe, Rick Hughes and Russell Moldenhauer. I figure three is enough for another draft pick update; if you missed the first batch, here are parts one and two, plus an extended look at undrafted FA signing Mike Gallo.

OF Connor Rowe (21st round-University of Texas)

Andy Seiler (6/17/10): "Even though his ceiling is as a fifth outfielder, his range in center field is good, and I like his chances of reaching the Majors with good makeup and a great work ethic"

Seiler (4/30/10): "Rowe does have some pro tools that he must leverage to have a good pro career as a fifth outfielder. At the plate, Rowe doesn't really profile to be a starter at the next level, as he fails to work the count and strikes out too much, and he doesn't have any power projection to speak of. However, he's a plus runner, and that's the style of hitting he takes on, slapping the ball gap to gap. Where Rowe shines is on defense. A true center fielder, he has plus range and an average arm, and he profiles to be able to play anywhere in the outfield with ease. Scouts know what Rowe's strengths and weaknesses are, and while they aren't high on his offensive ability, they see good value in his defensive assets, and he should be a fairly early pick because of it."

John Sickels (3/17/10): "He caught my eye with a good measure of speed and athleticism. Needs to improve his strike zone judgment, but he has some pop in his bat. It will be interesting to see if he can boost his hitting numbers which are unimpressive right now. 10^th round target at this point but perhaps the hitting will improve."

Burnt Orange Nation FanShot written by 40AS (6/20/10): "The Nats have scored 1 run in 20 innings this weekend against the White Sox, so Rowe will fit right in."

Rowe is an interesting pick. Like Seiler and Sickels point out, his 2010 stats indicate that he's not much of a hitter (.237/.274/.361) (although his 2009 stats could argue otherwise, at .277/.330/.456). Guys like Rowe remind us that baseball is not just about hitting and pitching. Rowe's fielding ability and speed can get him to the big leagues, even if his bat does not improve much. Even if his ceiling is just as a 5th outfielder, the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is not bad. One other note-Seiler did not expect him to sign, so this is a win for Rizzo and the boys.

DH (?) Russell Moldenhauer (24th round-University of Texas)

Seiler (6/17/10): "Moldenhauer was a third round pick back in 2006 to the Angels, and he didn't sign. That was clearly a horrible decision in hindsight, as he's now finished his senior year without much success, and he doesn't have any tools that say he can be even a bench bat in the Majors. He'll be signing shortly, as Texas' season just ended over the weekend"

Burnt Orange Nation comment written by 40AS (6/15/10): "Moldy gave up 4th round money as a senior in high school to come to Texas. He destroyed his knee his sophomore year and it took a full year to work back up to full strength. He tied the NCAA record for homers in a CWS. He came back and (along with Tant) was one of two hitters to be feared consistently all season. I’m glad the Nationals took him too (24th round), and I can’t think of many more players I’ll be rooting harder for to succeed at the next level."

First of all, I'm already a huge fan of "Moldy" just for his nickname. As 40AS pointed out, his knee surgery slowed him down, which could be one of the reasons he's a fungi without a position. I generally trust Seiler's judgment, but I'm a bit curious as to why he thinks Moldy isn't even a future ML bench bat. He's got great plate discipline (85 BB and 93 K in his college career) and decent power (9 HR in 2010). He was a 3rd rounder in '06, so obviously he had tools that scouts liked then, and it appears his bat didn't disappear. Maybe it's just the fact that he's a DH without a high batting ceiling, but a few years of health and Moldy could work himself back into a fielding role.

OF Rick Hughes (29th round-College of Marin)

Seiler (6/17/10): "Hughes is another big-bodied player, but he has enough athleticism to stick in a corner outfield spot. I had him as a possible late-round pick, so this isn't a bad pick, and he's currently considering committing to a four year school, which should happen fairly soon. "

There's not a whole lot I could find about Hughes, including from his own college's web site. Even when I found stuff on him from high school, it was about pitching a no-hitter rather than anything hitting or fielding-related, which he's being drafted for. All I can find on him from Marin is that he hit .355/.452/.540 with 3 HR in 34 games, with 25 BB and 23 K.

It appears that Hughes played in the same area as other Nats signed draft pick Christian Meza, so one San Francisco Bay-area scout seems to have the ear of Mike Rizzo.

OF Wander Nunez (36th round-Western Oklahoma State)

Seiler (6/17/10): "Nunez was teammates with (Nats' 32nd round pick Randolph) Oduber, and he was also a late-round pick a year ago. He can run and throw, and he's Dominican by heritage, but with a year of eligibility left at Western Oklahoma, I expect him to return to school, where he could blossom into a top fifteen rounds pick next year."

Philly.com (6/10/10): "Frankford coach Juan Namnun said for his 5-11, 174-pound protege, it simply was a matter of time. 'He was a gifted a player as you'd ever see,' Namnun said. 'He's always had a major league arm and a major league bat.'"

Nunez was drafted in the 49th round last year out of Frankford HS in Philadelphia). Sounds like we got a nice surprise with Nunez signing. He's a raw talent, but he could be a steal out of the 36th round.

The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a story about him on the front page last August, but has hidden it behind the paid archive wall (lame!). Fortunately for me, I waded my way through a few databases that VT subscribes to and found the full-text version (which I have made available for you here).

Some excerpts: "Nuñez, who turned 19 on June 27 (2009, so now he's actually 20), immigrated to the United States when he was 12, settling with his father, Cristino, in Orlando, Fla. Less than a year later, Wander (pronounced JUAN-day) Nuñez moved to Philadelphia to live with his half-brother, Nelson Cagral, who had bought space for his Almonte Mini Market in Feltonville, a neighborhood that is home to many Latinos. The two-story building has the small convenience store - packed with American and Latino goods along narrow aisles - on the first floor and their two-bedroom apartment on the second."

"For more than four years, his life consisted of working behind the counter and stocking shelves at the corner store and training at a dusty baseball field in Hunting Park. Going to school - which he admitted didn't come easy - wasn't in the picture. And those around him allowed him to stay out of the classroom."

"By all accounts, the 5-foot-11, 180-pound outfielder is an impressive hitter, using a wooden bat - not the batter-friendly aluminum ones used by just about everyone else at the amateur level."

"Eric Valent, the (Phillies') Northeast scout and a former big-league outfielder, said Nuñez has the 'tools. He's got power and has been using a wooden bat, which is always good. And he's got good speed.' On days when he doesn't have a game, Nuñez said, he plays baseball from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m., then heads to the gym until 5 p.m. 'This is a full-time job, like any other one,' he said. 'And to achieve what you want, you need to put the time in.'"

The one red flag from last year's article is that Nunez would have signed with the Phillies for peanuts, but they didn't even offer him that. Maybe he's improved a bunch over the last year, but for the Phillies to draft him and not even want to throw a contract his way scares me off a little bit. But from all accounts I've read, Nunez has a lot of potential but will have to work pretty hard to reach his ceiling.

RHP Shane Zellers (Undrafted FA-Alvernia University)

Not a whole lot on Zellers, but he went 8-2 with a 2.23 ERA this year for Alvernia University. In 72 and 2/3 innings, he allowed only 11 extra base hits (2 of them HR) with the following rate stats: 6.8 H/9, 3.09 BB/9, 11.27 K/9. Dominating in the Eastern College Athletic Conference and dominating in the Major Leagues are two different things, but you can never have enough pitchers, no matter where you find them.

Meeting Mike Gallo

I figured running through the Nats signed draft picks would be pretty fun because I like wading through information and compiling lists. What I did not know was that one of the undrafted free agents, likely overlooked by many reading the Nats' press release, would end up happily answering a bunch of my questions for the blog. Mike Gallo pitched for the last two seasons at Milligan College, a very small Christian school in Johnson City, Tennessee. One of my older sisters went to Milligan, so I took a big interest in Mike's story. Here's what he had to say!

1) What pitches do you throw? (feel free to include speeds, describe the movement, etc.)

I throw a 2-seam fastball, cut fastball, 4-seam fastball, curveball, and change up. My fastball is consistently in the low 90's and runs up to 94 mph.

2) What baseball achievement or accolade are you most proud of at this point in your career?

The biggest achievement of my career has been signing with the Washington Nationals.

3) What are your favorite professional sports teams or athletes?

My favorite sports teams are The Boston Red Sox, Boston Bruins, and Boston Celtics. When the Nationals play the Red Sox I will pull for the Nationals now!

4) Do you have any routines before starts (such as eating the same food before every game or painting your nails like Dmitri Young)?

Before games I like to listen to the song "Fire it Up" by Thousand Foot Crutch.

5) If you could face any one batter in their prime (past or present), who would it be?

I have always admired Ted Williams. I would have loved to face him.

6) Fill in the blank: Without _______, I would not be a baseball player.

My family, my former coaches and my work ethic.

7) If you weren’t a professional athlete, what would you likely be doing right now?

If I was not a professional athlete, I would be detailing boats and starting my own business in the boating industry.

8) What was the first thing you did after you signed with the Nats?

After signing with the Nats I called my family immediately to share the news.

9) I know you haven’t spent too much time in the Nats system yet, but have you made any good buddies yet?

My friend Nick Serino was drafted by the Nats this year and we will be starting our pro careers together. I have played with and against Nick my whole life. (My note-Nick, a LHP, was drafted in the 37th round out of UMass this year and signed along with the 21 other draftees and 4 other undrafted free agents announced yesterday).

10) Which Nationals coaches (at any level) have you talked to so far?

All of the coaches at the rookie ball level.

11) The Nats are obviously following the 1990s Braves methodology by building their system up through pitching. Do you think this is a good thing for you (because of increased organizational attention) or a bad thing (more competition)?

I always enjoy competition. I pride myself on my work ethic and I think it's a good thing that we have so many pitchers.

12) There is another Mike Gallo that bounced around the Majors for a few years with the Astros. Any relation?

No relation to the other Mike Gallo.

13) Milligan is not a powerhouse for developing pro athletes. Did you expect when you came in that you would progress to the point where you'd sign with a Major League organization?

Being at Milligan made me work even harder to become a professional, but I am happy to be representing them as my alma mater.


One last note: I'm sure that if anyone has questions for Mike, he would be more than happy to answer them. Just leave them in the comments and I'll pass them along to him!

Taking a look at the rest of the Nats' 22 signed draft picks

37th round pick Nick Serino via MassLive

On Monday, I looked at the first half of the 2010 draftees the Nats have signed so far. Today it's time for the second half. Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot of info on most of these guys, especially in the form of scouting reports. But I'll do my best to dig up any info I can!

Also, I have completed an interview with Mike Gallo, a RHP who just signed an undrafted free agent deal with the Nats. I'm going over final touches with him, so it should be up soon.

RF Chad Mozingo (20th round-Rice University)

Nothing from Seiler, Sickels or Oliver.

Rice Official Site: "Combines bat speed with speed on the bases. Equally capable of hitting in the top or middle of the lineup. (Coach) Wayne Graham said 'Chad's potential is almost unlimited. He plays great defense and he can hit. We are hoping for a banner year, an all-star type year for him.'"

From the looks of it, Mozingo does things pretty well across the board but without an extraordinary tool. He makes decent contact, walks an average amount, doesn't strike out way too much, has some power and some speed. Besides his coach's opinion, I've seen nothing about his defense, so I guess we'll assume for now that it's good. He's not afraid to play hurt, but at the same time appears to be semi-injury prone (broken wrist, damaged ligaments in ankle, ant bite, etc.).

RHP Cameron Selik (22nd round-University of Kansas)

A little more on Selik than most of these other guys.

Sickels (5/25/2010): "He's a big guy at 6-3, 240 pounds, a "strong legs" type. His numbers are so-so this year, 4.66 ERA with a 68/30 K/BB in 85 innings, 86 hits. But he has a decent fastball at 88-92 MPH, and got some nasty break on his slider at times, in addition to mixing in a few changeups. He would profile as a bullpen back-ender at the higher levels, but someone in the later rounds could pick him up. Guys with worse arms have been successful pitchers.

The Kansan noted that Selik hit 95 mph in a start against Baylor in March. It looks like he's finally starting to come around from his Tommy John surgery in 2007 (a good article from KU's official site about his recovery can be found here. Another by the Kansan can be found here). Another interesting note about his selection: Selik was Stephen Strasburg's catcher growing up.

It appears that Selik has two internet-savvy cousins who found NFA on draft-day, so maybe they'll find this post and tell us a little more about him!

RHP Colin Bates (23rd round-Unviersity of North Carolina)

Instantly my new favorite Nats prospect because of this gem from his UNC bio: "Pitches with a piece of his removed rib in his back pocket." Nice.

NFA commenter Cdoug passed along this scouting report on 6/8/2010: "Bates’ fastball touches 93 and his slider has decent tilt and bite. At 6-1, he is probably limited to being a reliever. Oddly, he carries in his pocket a piece of one of his ribs. After his freshman year, Bates developed a clot on his lung caused by the rib jabbing into it when he threw. He had the rib removed and has since kept it in his pocket as a reminder of how fast things can be taken away."

UNC's official site had a nice Q&A session with Bates during his redshirt freshman season in 2008. I like to see this, too: "An outstanding student, Colin is a three-time member of the ACC Academic Honor Roll and two-time member of the All-ACC Academic Baseball Team. The Naperville, Ill., native graduated May 9, 2010 with a bachelor's degree from the Kenan-Flager Business School."

5 Tool Talk had this to say about Bates in April of 2009: "Colin Bates is a very interesting draft-eligible sophomore. He has a slighter build, but has a high waist, long legs and a strong lower half overall. His fastball can get straight, but he commands it well, and it works even better for him when he’s getting his curve/slurve over for strikes."

Baseball America said last year, "A redshirt sophomore who had a rib removed during thoracic outlet surgery in November 2006, Bates has low-90s velocity and bulldog tenacity out of the bullpen but doesn't hold his velocity on back-to-back days."

Bates was taken in the 37th round by Oakland last year but didn't sign. He's an intriguing pickup to me.

LHP Christian Meza (25th round-Santa Ana College)

I wasn't able to dig anything up about Meza's stuff, but it looks like he was headed to Cal State Fullerton to pitch next year after spending two years at Santa Ana College (a junior college). He went 10-1 with a 3.30 ERA this year, allowing 90 hits and 40 walks in 92 and 2/3 innings while striking out 96. He won the Orange Empire Conference pitcher of the year award in both 2009 and 10 and was named theSouthern California co-pitcher of the year this year as well.

LHP Chris Manno (26th round-Duke University)

There is a lot more on Manno out there than most of these other guys because he's a Nats redraft (taken in the 38th round last year) with pretty good college numbers.

Here's what NFA re-posted from Baseball America last year: "Junior lefthander Christopher Manno is the Blue Devils’ best prospect and could go anywhere from the fifth to 10th round. Like Wolcott, he works primarily off his fastball. He’s long and lean with deception and some projection left in his body. Manno at times sits at 83-87 mph, though he often throws harder and was 89-91 mph at times in the Cape last summer, when he went 3-0, 1.93 with 45 strikeouts in 42 innings. His changeup can be plus at times, while his slider is below-average. Manno is young for his draft class and doesn’t turn 21 until November."

Seiler (7/7/2009): Manno should have gone much earlier, and he was in consideration for the top ten rounds quite easily as a lefty with good size and great deception. His fastball is below-average, but he couples it with a contrasting changeup that gets a lot of funny swings.

Seiler answered a question on Manno in an "All Questions Answered" thread on 6/11/2010: Q: Thoughts on Duke’s LHP Chris Manno (26th, DC) – did he stuff back up a bit this year? A: Stuff was still down. Below-average velocity and stuff in general.

A nice interview with Manno from before the 2010 season can be found here. Some excerpts:

"It's hard not to root for Duke's senior lefty Chris Manno. He's humble, gives credit to coaches and teammates before himself and plays the game smart. He's both the kind of guy you want on the mound in a crucial game as well as someone you'd trust to date your sister."

"Q: The terms “funky” and “herky jerky” have been used to describe your pitching form. Yet, it's hard to say anything disparaging with the results. Has anyone attempted to tinker with your delivery or endorsed a change in your approach? A: Being herky jerky isn't necessarily a bad thing. You can watch a bunch of major league pitchers who are jerky jerky and funky, but their mechanics are actually good. My mechanics have developed throughout years and they're very sound if you watch them on tape. The way I deliver the ball and the way it comes out are just different. I do everything my coaches tell me to do and they've really, really helped me over the years. I just throw a little different – which is kind of good from what I heard.

Q: You were a late round draft choice of the Washington Nationals in the amateur drafts last spring. Was there much consideration in turning down the Nat's offers to go pro? You could been paid to play and continued your education later. A: Absolutely. That was definitely a consideration. I was honored to be drafted by them. You have to understand that I still have a lot of space for improving at the school I'm at right now. I haven't outgrown my coaches and I still have a lot to learn from them...In regards to me possibly signing it was absolutely an option, it's always been my dream to sign, but it just wasn't the right time. To be very honest I made it quite clear to scouts that it was going to take a significant commitment for me to leave an institution like Duke."

I really like Manno, especially as a 26th rounder. With a quirky delivery, he has a chance of being an effective ML pitcher. In the 26th round, there isn't any risk if he doesn't become one. He's portrayed as a high character guy. And the Nats obviously like him a lot, since they took him two years in a row. An all-around great pick to me.

C Jeremy Mayo (31st round-Texas Tech University)

Nothing from the big boys on Mayo. Hit .299/.395/.508, which is decent but not all that special. For someone that was voted by the baseball coaches of the Big 12 as the co-best defensive catcher, he made a ridiculous number of errors this year (12).

His coach, Dan Spencer, had some nice things to say about him: "He’s a kid that takes good care of his body and is proud of his work in the weight room,” Spencer said. “But he is also blessed with that good arm and has really polished his catching skills. He does drills at full tilt, asks questions about baseball as far as helping him prepare and wants to know things like a coach would, which is the next step in becoming a great catcher."

Mayo has the potential to be a solid backstop, but has to cut down on errors and work on his hitting to keep moving.

LHP Ryan Sherriff (33rd round-West Los Angeles College)

Almost nothing on this guy. The only thing I dug up were his 2010 stats (and even they were almost impossible to find): 7 starts, 4.58 ERA, 42 hits allowed, 35 K and 8 BB in 35 and 1/3 IP. Not too inspiring, but there is probably more to this guy that I simply can't find...Googling Ryan Sherriff West Los Angeles College will just lead you to the Los Angeles Sheriff's office page.

1B Tyler Oliver (35th round-Wabash Valley College)

Oliver hit .456 with 30 homers and 103 RBI this year. He comes with unusual circumstances; Oliver had so many problems with his right arm that he taught himself how to throw lefthanded and stuck with it. He has bounced around from commitment to commitment, likely due to his injury history. He was committed to the University of Kentucky for next year, but signed with the Nats instead. He's a beast with the bat and that's all that matters to me. His commitment to his baseball career despite some injuries that would have ended many other players' careers impresses me.

LHP Nick Serino (37th round-University of Massachusetts)

Serino is a childhood friend of Mike Gallo, the Nats undrafted free agent who I interviewed as well as a college teammate of Mitchell Clegg, a 2009 Nats draft pick who has been tearing the minors apart.

Serino had a rough season, going 2-6 with a 6.72 ERA, but struck out almost 11 batters per inning. UMass coach, Mike Stone, said thisabout Serino: "He's got a good arm. It's just a matter of throwing more strikes and economizing his pitches," Stone said. "He was awful close to having a better record than he did."

Despite Serino's poor overall numbers from 2010, his ability to strike batters out is valuable, especially when we're talking 37th round lefthanders. He'll be one to keep an eye on for the rest of the year.

RHP Kevin Cahill (41st round-Purdue University)

Cahill's numbers were pretty ugly in his first three seasons at Purdue, but improved greatly in his senior year. He struck out 8.9 batters per 9 innings while walking 6.0-not great by any standards, but better than before. Cahill looks like an organizational arm, but like Serino, the improving K rate is intriguing.

OF Rashad (Dimetrius) Hatcher (49th round-Patrick Henry Community College)

The Nats' one local signee came out of Patrick Henry Community College in Martinsville, VA. Hatcher hit .386/.459/.579 in 2010 with 14 steals in 17 attempts. His 18:30 BB:K ratio is decent and his 6.5 second 60 yard dash time is impressive; Hatcher could turn out to be a nice prospect.

PHCC Coach Chris Parker said this about Hatcher: "It’s great for Rashad. That was the best-case scenario for him. He will sign, and hopefully he’ll make a run for it. He’s got a lot of tools and raw ability. He’s a great kid that hopefully will have a chance to do great things with the game of baseball."

Perfect Game USA posted this scouting report on Hatcher in 2007: "Lean athletic body, good solid swing, finishes well, some power, drives ball to gaps, good arm speed, has carry on throws, strong arm, 85 from OF."

Here's what I've found on the undrafted free agents:

SS Mills Rogers (Carson-Newman College)

Rogers hit .378/.448/.637 with 30 extra base hits, an 18:33 BB:K ratio and an 8/11 SB success rate. His 23 errors and .915 fielding percentage are discouraging, but you take whatever you can get out of an undrafted free agent infielder who can hit.

RHP Tim Dupuis (Assumption College)

The Assumption College release is all I can really find on him: "He finished this past season 3-2 with an individual team-record 11 saves and a 3.77 earned run average and is the career closer for the Greyhounds with 28 saves (21 in the last two seasons). He posted an 11-7 overall record with a 2.50 earned run average with 106 strikeouts in 122.1 innings in his team-record 94 appearances. He allowed no home runs in his closer role for Coach George Reidy." The only other thing I can really point out is his BB:K ratio in 2010: 8:31 in 28 and 2/3 innings. I'm cool with that.

RHP Mike Gallo (Milligan College)

I won't go too far into depth with Mike because I'll be posting an interview with him soon. He went 2-1 with Milligan in 2010 with a 2.70 ERA in 40 innings, striking out 33 while walking 18. Gallo's best trait is his ability to limit the opposition to singles, with 0 homers allowed and only 6 extra base hits allowed at all this year.

RHP Zach Gerler (Austin Peay University)

Gerler was drafted in the 31st round in 2006 by the Orioles. He played two years of community college ball in the infield as well as his junior year at Austin Peay. He switched to pitching for his senior year and had semi-disappointing results, putting up an 8.41 ERA and 10 saves in 35 and 1/3 innings where he allowed 33 hits, 23 walks and hit 14 batters while striking out 35. The fact that Gerler had the stuff to be a closer in what looks like his first time pitching in 4 years makes me think he is miles away from his 2010 stat line, but he'll have to put in a lot of work with the pitching coaches to move up in the system. Here's an interesting article on Gerler and the mental side of college baseball.

RHP Ben Graham (Emporia State)

Graham recently said exactly what I like to hear out of young pitchers: "I’m finding out what kind of pitcher I am, kind of my identity. Just learning that that I don’t have stuff to blow by people, but if I get ahead in the count, then I have the ability to get a lot of ground balls."

He went 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 84 and 1/3 innings this year, throwing 5 complete games and 2 shutouts. 13 walks in 84 and 1/3 innings is pretty sweet. 20 extra base hits? Not so much. Graham seems to understand what he needs to do to keep moving through the system, and I certainly hope he continues to do so!

One last note-I love to interview prospects, draft picks and their coaches. If you're a family member or friend of one of these guys, feel free to pass the link along and have them contact me!