2010 Roster Building-Starting Pitchers (Internal Options)

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats are Starting Pitchers. Follow along with the series here.

STARTING PITCHERS:

Internal options:

John Lannan (LHP, under team control for 2010)

Lannan is the one sure thing the Nats have. He's the only pitcher on the current 25-man roster that would be worthy of a rotation spot for a playoff team. For a rotation lacking stability, he's really the strong point.

Stephen Strasburg (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I do not believe Strasburg is Major League ready yet (subject to change after the Arizona Fall League/Spring Training). I do believe the Nats will push him into the Majors either for the start of the season or at least by the All Star Break. His other-worldly talent is well-known...let's just hope he can translate it to major league success.

Ross Detwiler (LHP, under team control for 2010)

I usually group the Nats' young starting pitchers together, but I believe Detwiler should be considered separately. Detwiler is more talented than Stammen, Martis, Balester, Mock and Martis. And while he didn't necessarily look good in his 10-start stint with the Nats this summer, he was the only one out of the six with an FIP that would look particularly desirable in a major league rotation (3.89). I have high expectations for Detwiler to put up better actual numbers next year, and for his rate stats to improve as well. If I had to name a breakout candidate for the Nats in 2010, I would go with Detwiler.

Livan Hernandez (RHP, needs to be resigned)

Call me crazy, but I believe Livan when he says he'll be better in 2010. Maybe not a whole lot better, but I could see him posting double digit wins and an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range. His FIP hasn't been lower since his memorable 2005 campaign and his K rates are back into an acceptable range. He won't break out next year, but I do think Livan can certainly be a passable #5 starter.

Garrett Mock (RHP, under team control)

Here we go, from Livan to one of the guys the Nats got for Livan back 2006. After his 2008 season, I felt like Mock was best suited as a reliever for the rest of his career, but I think he took a step forward in 2009. I don't expect him to light the world on fire next year, but I could see him continuing his progression to around a 4.50 ERA or so...not great, but acceptable.

J.D. Martin (RHP, under team control)

I'm a big J.D. Martin fan, but I don't think the Nats should count on him for the rotation next year. His FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he's been lucky this year (and not just a little lucky, either). Unless he can greatly reduce his HRs allowed and increase his K's to at least 5-6 per inning, I don't think Martin will be able to cement himself into a starting role. Long relief, sure, but not a starting role.

Craig Stammen (RHP, under team control)

Looking at Stammen's AAA and ML rate stats, his K rate has dropped at an alarming pace in 2009, from 7-8 K/9 in each level in 2008 down to 3.15 in AAA and 4.08 in the Majors. I'm guessing it has to do with his elbow issues. If that's the case, Stammen could be another breakout candidate in 2010, as he is the anti-Martin in terms of luck-his FIP, BABIP and LOB% all suggest he was unlucky in 2009.

Shairon Martis (RHP, under team control for 2010)

I'm going to get this out of the way: I'm not a Shairon Martis believer. He walked more batters than he struck out this year and somehow earned his 5.25 ERA with a large amount of luck in terms of LOB% and BABIP. Martis is my #1 disappointment candidate for 2010. He'll still only be 23, though, so he has time to get those K rates back up. Then I'll be a believer again.

Collin Balester (RHP, under team control for 2010)

Like Martis, Balester deserved worse than his 2009 numbers. Hard to do when you have a 6.82 ERA, but he did it. Balester is a bounceback candidate for me because he has the physical tools to succeed again.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Brad Meyers

Wait, the Nats have a young pitcher who didn't regress in 2009? Believe it or not, Meyers had an awesome 2009, dominating both high-A ball and AA in about half a season in each. At both levels, he averaged at least 3 K/BB and kept the ball in the yard at an awesome rate, giving up only 3 HR all season. His semi-low innings count this year (136 and 1/3) says that he'll either be up pretty fast or not at all. He won't be a September call-up, because he'll be beyond his limit.

For the record, I do not think Matt Chico or Scott Olsen will be seen in Nats uniforms in 2010. I expect both to be non-tendered this offseason.

2009 production by Nats Starting Pitchers to date: 30-55, 5.07 ERA, 6 CG, 1 shutout, 779 and 2/3 IP, 5.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.485 WHIP

2010 projection: Better peripherals, more innings pitched, similar ERA.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Inbox, other stuff

Before I start with the inbox, check out the Facebook group "I <3>." Coveroo has agreed to give one lucky winner who guesses Strasburg's SB closest without going over a free Nats Coveroo.

Now, for the Inbox:

Johnson was a great player and a face of the franchise, but does Aaron Thompson have a chance to make as much of an impact as Johnson?
-- David W., Potomac, Md.

It depends on what you define "as much of an impact" as. I'm pretty sure Thompson will be worth more to the Nats over the next year years than two months of NJ would have been, but at this point he's really just another pitching prospect to stockpile. My guess is he'll end up as a #4/5 starter but the same was definitely said about John Lannan a few years back!

Craig Stammen continues to struggle. They should put Tyler Clippard in the rotation and move Stammen to the bullpen. What are your thoughts?
-- Joshua, Puerto Rico

I think at this point there's no point to switch them. Clippard (admittedly in a small sample size) has only been effective against batters the first time through the lineup. And besides that, after converting him to a reliever, I don't see them reversing it anytime soon. And while Stammen has gotten hit fairly hard in his last 2 outings, I'm not willing to give up on him yet.

What options do the Nats currently have at first base now that Johnson is gone?
-- Mike B., Washington, D.C.

Over the longrun, I think it will be Willingham. He's got the athletic ability to play there. It won't be pretty at first, but after a month or so I'm sure he'll look better than Dunn/Belliard. Once September rolls around, you might see Kory Casto, Mike Morse, Joel Guzman or Jorge Padilla there, depending on how the 40-man roster looks.

How does a player fail a physical for the Nationals and become an All-Star for the Dodgers? I'm talking about Hudson.
-- Peter R., Vancouver, BC Canada

He. Was. Not. Healthy. Enough. To. Give. A. Contract. To. Not sure how this is so hard for people to understand. It is never a good idea to sign someone who fails a physical. Get over yourself and hope they can sign him this offseason.

It has been stated a few times that the Nats will be looking for a shortstop in the offseason, and that Cristian Guzman's defense has become suspect. Were the Nats shopping Guzman before the Trade Deadline?
-- Frank H., Washington, D.C.

I hope so.

Some other links:

Jon Heyman had a few Nats-related snippets today. Don't mistake me for Heyman fan, because I'm surely not...just passing info along.

1-Dunn is likely to clear waivers, Villone might, Willingham won't.

2-Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and Dodgers GM Ned Colletti both have expiring contracts and could be targets for the Nats' GM job in the offseason. Other potential targets could include former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn, Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings and Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. Heyman notes that Hunsicker and Hahn aren't locks to accept a job if it is offered.

Daniel Cabrera signed with the Diamondbacks and Corey Patterson signed with the Brewers. Pity their fans.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K...

MLBTradeRumors.com reported two odd Nats rumors/speculations today. And by odd, I mean they would be stupid and I applaud Rizzo for not making moves like these.

First up, they just relayed a MASN blog post by Pete McElroy saying the Nats should give up on Joel Hanrahan. Ummmmm, no. I stand by what I said on Monday-Hanrahan is an incredibly unlucky pitcher this year. Put a real defense behind him to give him some confidence back and he'll be fine. You don't give up a young-ish reliever who throws in the high 90s for nothing when you're in last place. I'm sorry he gives up a lot of runs sometimes, but

They also noted that Fanhouse.com reporter Ed Price said (via his Twitter) that the Nats shot down a potential Lastings Milledge-for-Nyjer Morgan deal because the Pirates also asked for Craig Stammen. Kudos for Rizzo for not accepting the deal...while Morgan is a great defender, he is crap with the bat and is not much of an overall improvement over Roger Bernadina...why sell low on Milledge for a guy you won't even need in a month or two (or how ever long it takes the rehabbing Roger to be back)?

Another one bites the dust

Cintron's out. Thank goodness!

In other transactional news, Dukes to the DL while Bergmann and Maxwell are up from AAA. All I'm waiting for now is a Cabrera DFA and a Stammen callup and we're all set!

I'm in Bloomington, MN for the night (right by the Mall of America) before heading out to Chicago tomorrow. Please check out my Twitter page for more frequent updates!