More Inbox Excitement

Don't ask me about Monday's game. I don't want to talk about it. Here's your inbox:

At some point this season, the Nationals are going to get reinforcements in the names of Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg to bolster their starting pitching. Who are the likely candidates to be moved out of the rotation?
-- Evan S., Chevy Chase, Md.

Ladson notes that Olsen needs to be put into the equation as well, and I agree with that. If his arm regains its strength, he will be hard to keep out of the rotation. I see Mock as the first cut, Stammen as the second and Livo as the third for when (and if) these starters come up. Major League appearances from Wang and Olsen are far from guaranteed and Detwiler has not locked down a rotation spot in my opinion either (even though I am one of his biggest supporters).

Do you love Drew Storen's stuff as much as me? How quickly will the Nationals call him up?
-- Josh M., Indiana

I doubt the Nats will rush Storen to the bigs as fast as Ladson seems to think, but I would be surprised if Strasburg got the call before Storen. He could step in and immediately be one of the most trustworthy members of the Nats bullpen.

What happened to Kevin Mench?
-- Andrew C., Ottawa, Ontario

Good question. I had false hope that Mench was going to get a true shot at making the team when he stuck around until the end. I guess he'll have to hope that Maxwell stays cold and Taveras continues to be a terrible overall player. Then he might get a shot. I'm pulling for you, Shrek!

How worried should we be about outfielder Justin Maxwell? What does it say about the Nationals' commitment to him?
-- Scott K., Rockville, Md.

I don't think Maxwell's demotion says much about the Nats' commitment to him. Generally speaking, if you have a job pretty much locked down going in to Spring Training, it will be yours on Opening Day as long as you don't completely and utterly suck. Unfortunately for everybody involved but Willy Taveras, Maxwell struggled immensely in Viera. I still think he'll be up with the big club by the end of the month once he figures his swing out. Hopefully he can turn out to be a Mike Cameron-esque player, although that may be setting the bar too high.

For five years, I've heard about how good Jason Bergmann is supposed be, but all I see is disappointment. What gives?
-- Jordan A., Washington, D.C.

I've never seen anyone refer to Bergmann as a rising star or a bullpen ace, so I'm not sure where your argument is coming from. He's a below average middle/long reliever with a controllable contract on a team with clear bullpen issues. Until minor leaguers start to step it up, guys like Bergmann will continue to get work for the Nats despite poor track records. The pipeline may be running better than when the team arrived in DC, but it's still far from producing great relief pitchers.

Did you agree with general manager Mike Rizzo for keeping Mock on the 25-man roster and sending Olsen to Syracuse?
-- Kirk K., Syracuse, N.Y.

IN RIZZO WE TRUST!

Monday Inbox and update

A quick update: I am currently all the way through Chase Lambin on my (hopefully) exhaustive list of Nats additions since the trade deadline last year. I have 23 names finished and 28 names left.

Here are 2 examples of what I'm doing:

RHP Miguel Batista (signed to MLC w/ NRI. 2009 org: SEA. 1 WS Ring)
The 39 year old righty (and writer) has bounced around the majors for parts of 15 seasons. I said in February that "I think Batista will be a heavily-used member of the Nats' bullpen this year. Maybe not good, but heavily-used." I'll stick with that assessment for now. Don't expect to see the 4.04 ERA he put up last year but at the same time, don't expect the 6.26 ERA he put up in 2008, either. Somewhere in the high 4's or low 5's sounds about right for both Batista and a 39 year old non-roster invitee.
Baseball-Reference Page, FanGraphs Page, my original post

RHP Robinson Fabian (acquired from COL in July 2009 trade with RHP Ryan Mattheus for LHP Joe Beimel. 2009 orgs: COL and WAS)

Fabian is an intriguing prospect that is really frustrating to try and figure out. The 24 year old supposedly has a 97 mph fastball, but only struck out 5.4 batters per 9 innings in 2009 (as opposed to his career average of 6.8 K/9). For someone described as "a thrower and not a pitcher" (see the above link), he doesn't walk that many batters either, though: 2.10 BB/9 in 2009, 3.1 BB/9 for his career. But given the fact that Fabian has decent control (3.03 BB/9 or better from 2007-09), keeps the ball in the yard (0.77 HR/9 in low A and above) and has a 97 mph heater, he's worth something. We just don't know what to expect from him...still.

The Joe Beimel deal was a good one, even if Fabian and Ryan Mattheus don't turn out to do anything. Moving an upcoming free agent reliever at the deadline for two arms with upside is something a last place team should do 10 times out of 10.

B-R, FanGraphs

Hopefully I'll have the list completely done at some point this week, depending on how much time it takes for me to study for a test I have on Thursday. Anyways, here's the inbox:

Nyjer Morgan has really sparked everybody in the short time he has been on the team. How important is he, and can he be a difference-maker to pull the team closer to .500?
-- Robbie C., Washington, D.C.

I've tried to be easier on Ladson lately, but he expects Morgan to score 120 runs in 2010. Over his career, Morgan has scored 108 runs in his 172 stats while hitting .310/.368/.399, which would equate to about 102 runs over a 162 game season (which is assuming he starts all 162 games). So 120 is a little out of reach in my opinion.

But, back to Robbie's question: Nyjer is very important and he can be a difference-maker. But he's not something we can count on 100%. At 29 (almost 30), he's at or around his peak. He's never played more than 120 games in an ML season. He still can't hit lefthanded pitching. So we're looking at a defensive whiz with potential durability issues who can lead off against righties.

Do you agree with manager Jim Riggleman with the fact that left-hander Scott Olsen is a lock for the rotation if he's healthy? With all those other pitchers battling for a rotation spot, don't you think Olsen needs a good Spring Training to make it?
-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm usually in the Olsen camp, but I don't see a reason why Riggleman guaranteed Olsen a rotation spot if he's healthy. His track record hasn't been that good as of late and I'm not convinced he's a better candidate than guys like Stammen or Martin (although he has a higher upside, as seen in his 2006 season). I think that if Ross Detwiler didn't get hurt, Riggleman might not have made the same guarantee.

What role do you see Willie Harris playing for the Nationals this season?
-- Craig E., Leesburg, Va.

I don't see it being any different than it has been for the last 2 years unless somebody goes down, just like Ladson. That being said, I could also see him getting a chance to start a few more games at 2B if Kennedy falters (which wouldn't be a huge surprise), but most of those innings would instead go to Desmond or Guzman I'm sure.

If the Nationals give Adam Dunn a contract extension, what does that mean for Chris Marrero?
-- Evan S., Chevy Chase, Md.

Marrero is far from a guarantee, and a lot of people think his ceiling is as a Major League regular. He's still a few years away, with less than 100 plate appearances at AA under his belt, so there's no rush to make a decision. Check out more on Marrero in my"Do or Die Time" post from January.

Does it worry you that no one on the Nationals collected more than 100 strikeouts? The closest one was right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, and he was out for most of the second half of the season.
-- Ray U., Washington, D.C.

Yes. In 2009, there were 16 teams with a .500 win percentage or better. Only 6 of those teams had below the league average in K's. On the other hand, the top 7 teams in K's all had 83 or more wins. It's not a perfect science, and teams that don't strike out a lot of batters can succeed (the 2009 Angels, Cardinals and Rangers can all serve as examples), but there is less margin for error for the defense. The Nats' defense, while improved, is still not that great. They committed 143 errors last year, 19 more than any other team. For every Zimmerman and Morgan they have, they have a Dunn, Guzman or Willingham to cancel them out. A few fireballers like Strasburg and Zimmermann could help the team steal some more games simply by keeping the ball out of the field of play.

Where does outfielder Justin Maxwell fit into the scheme of things?
-- Pam K., Frederick, Md.

I think Maxwell has a decent shot of making the team as a 4th outfielder, mostly depending on whether or not Nyjer Morgan can learn how to hit lefties in Spring Training. If Morgan can't, I think we'll see Maxwell up as a platoon starter who gets a few spot starts in LF and RF as well.

Why didn't the Nationals pick up Ryan Church after he was non-tendered?
-- Kimon G., Bethesda, Md.

I wanted the Nats to make a run after Church for nostalgic purposes, but he's not a make-or-break player that was needed. And he's not worth the $1.5 million plus incentives the Pirates are paying him. And I'm not sure he would really want to come back; Church's relationship with the Front Office was never sparkles and sunshine. Even though Leatherpants is gone, there are still plenty of remnants in the system from his time as commander-in-chief.

Do or Die Time: Justin Maxwell

A reminder: I have formed a partnership with The Miz of Fight for Old DC to feature some of my posts on the site. Please go to FFODC.com, join the forums and comment away!

Next in line of my "Do or Die Time" prospects to take a closer look at is outfielder Justin Maxwell. Check out my previous posts on Adrian Alaniz, Michael Burgess and Chris Marrero if you have a chance.

Justin Maxwell, 26 years old, OF

Drafted 4th round, 114th overall in 2005.

2009 stats:

Syracuse-AAA: .242/.344/.396, 10 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 68 R, 35/43 SB (448 PA)

Washington-ML: .247/.343/.449, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 13 R, 6/7 SB (102 PA)

Career stats:

Minors: .257/.351/.442, 54 2B, 15 3B, 52 HR, 193 RBI, 233 R, 104/129 SB (1506 PA)

Majors: .252/.333/.461, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 6/7 SB (129 PA)

I like Justin Maxwell a lot. That may be a surprise to some that read my blog, but I'm a big fan. He's very athletic and a good defensive outfielder. He hits plenty of homers but also steals some bases. So why have I traditionally been against giving Maxwell a consistent ML roster spot? He scares me.

How could such a nice young man scare me? Unrealistic expectations. Maxwell has never hit for a high average in the minors and strikes out a ton (we're talking 30% of the time). He has plenty of ML-ready tools, including power, speed, defense, and the ability to take a walk. But I can't see Maxwell hitting much more than .230 in the majors at this point in his development.

I do see a light at the end of the tunnel, though. In August, I noted that Maxwell and Mike Cameron's minor league numbers are eerily similar.

Maxwell: .257/.351/.442
Cameron: .258/.344/.424

Additionally, after the 1994 season, Cameron's career looked to have pretty much stalled out. He followed up an awful 1993 season in A-ball with a .248/.343/.391 triple slash playing for the Prince William Cannons in '94. Cameron improved a little bit in 1995 before breaking out with a 1.002 OPS in '96, which essentially vaulted him into the majors. Maxwell's '08 season was stalled by injuries and he hit .242/.344/.396 in AAA last year (eerily similar again!). I'm hoping this year will be his "improvement" stage and 2011 will be his breakout year. If he continues to stall out, I think he'll end up as a good 4th OF, but never a true starter.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .260/.355/.450 in AAA, .230/.325/.400 in ML

I think Maxwell will tweak his swing to hit for a higher average in AAA, but at the same time I expect his batting average to drop a bit if he plays for a more extended period in the majors. This is the last year for Maxwell to work out the kinks; at 26 years old, what you see is what you get.

Major League ETA: Now

Recent scouting notes:

"He’s on this list because he still technically qualifies as a rookie but I’m not sure he’s ever going to develop into anything more than a #4 or 5 OF. This is not necessarily a bad thing as teams need those guys, but given the expectations he had, it is somewhat of a disappointment."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"What you see is what you get: power, walks, speed, low batting average. Can they look past that and appreciate his secondary skills?."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs

Baseball-Reference

Do or Die Time: Michael Burgess

Next in my series of Nats prospects who need to make a move in 2010 is slugging outfielder Michael Burgess.

Michael Burgess, 21 year old, OF
Drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007, 49th overall.

2009 stats:
Potomac-high A: .235/.325/.410, 23 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 63 R (545 PA)

Career stats:
.254/.345/.463, 59 2B, 10 3B, 54 HR, 192 RBI, 167 R (1323 PA)

Burgess is about as far from a sure thing as you will ever find. He has ridiculous power potential (career ISO of .209). He walks a lot (10.1% or better at every level in his career) but strikes out even more (28.1% or higher at every level in his career). Burgess simply does not make enough contact to be seen as a "top prospect" anymore, even though he has the potential to be a power hitting star. It would not surprise me if he ended up as a ML Regular, but it would not surprise me if he never reaches the bigs either.

If I could choose one comparable player to Burgess, it would be Nats youngster Justin Maxwell. Maxwell has below average marks in contact and strikeouts, but has a lot of power and raw talent. If Burgess can put it together like Maxwell appears to have done, he'll be a solid ML regular. The one thing Burgess has on his side is youth: he has only played two full seasons in the minors, at 19 and 20 years old. He is by no means locked into his performances over that time.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .250/.340/.470
I can see Burgess' numbers stabilizing a bit, with the power sustained and the contact raising a little bit closer to his career averages in a second year in Potomac.

Major League ETA: September 2012

Recent scouting notes:
"The ultimate three true outcome guy (walk, strikeout, home run). I have not seen the development in strike zone judgment I would have hoped for. In my opinion, he could use more seasoning in Potomac in 2010."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"Some (top prospects) have not developed as hoped and still are “getting by” on reputation (Burgess)."-NFA, 11/10/09

"Strengths: Plus power, excellent arm strength and solid defense. Weaknesses: Does not hit for average, not a lot of speed, needs to be more patient hitter."-NationalsProspects.com

"Power potential, throwing arm, and youth are big positives, will take a walk, but strikes out a lot and batting average is quite low."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs
Baseball-Reference

Inbox Time

Here's some jibberjabbering to wake you up on Monday morning!

What did you think about the Nationals making Jim Riggleman the permanent manager?
-- Charlie B., Washington

Pros: The team was much better when he started managing (regression to the mean?), players like him but also respect him, local guy, easy to cut bait with in the next few years if a better candidate comes along, no worse than Bobby Valentine.

Cons: Lots of baserunning mistakes, terrible track record with young pitchers, etc.

Overall, I think it was a good move because the Nats aren't particularly obligated to keep him around like they would be if they tried to "develop" a major league manager. It was slim pickens out there, so there was no real wrong (or right) answer. This way, the Nats can groom Tim Foli or Matt Lecroy to be a ML manager in a few year.s

Do you see a double-play combination of Ian Desmond and Cristian Guzman?
-- George M., Burke, Va.

No. I bet it will be Adam Everett (SS) and Desmond (at 2B). Like Ladson, I think the Nats will try and trade Guzman.

I was a big Ronnie Belliard fan. Do you see the Nats signing Belliard as a backup again?
-- Patrick S., Chantilly, Va.

I think he enjoyed the pennant chase a little too much to come back to the Nats as a bench player. I would be surprised if he didn't end up with the Dodgers.

What do you expect from Scott Olsen in 2010?
-- Ed B., Miami

A different uniform.

One of my favorite players is Jamey Carroll. He worked hard, was very fundamentally sound and was a great veteran player to have in the clubhouse. I hear he is a free agent. What are the odds of the Nationals bringing him back?
-- Justin F., Vienna, Va.

Ladson says 50% or less (which aren't bad odds when you think about it). I think that the Nats have a pretty good chance of getting something done-they have the playing time to offer in the infield and he's already a fan favorite. Why not bring Jamey back?

Ross Detwiler pitched much better after being recalled in September. Is there a good chance he will be in the Opening Day rotation?
-- Ryan K, Carlisle, Pa.

I would be very surprised if he wasn't, half due to how well he pitched down the stretch and half due to the lack of organizational depth.

How do you see Justin Maxwell fitting into Nationals' long-term plans?
-- Jack S., Jackson, Miss.

I have made it fairly well known that I don't think Maxwell is ready for the big leagues, and I don't know if he ever will be. He's an excellent fielder and a great bench bat, but I don't see him as much more than a platoon starter versus lefthanded pitching/bench bat/defensive whiz.

Inbox spectacular

Here's your inbox:

Right-hander Drew Storen has been touted as a closer. If he makes the big league team, how about starting him off as a setup man, and then working him into the closer role by midseason?
-- Shane B., Vancouver, Canada

Sounds good to me. Who else is going to close? If the team keeps MacDougal around, they're insane...wayyy too expensive for a guy who is probably going to implode at some point. I think it's funny that Hanrahan is five times better than MacDougal and got run out of town while MacDougal should be a guaranteed non-tender and everyone wants to hold on to his lucky 2009 ERA.

I don't think it's necessary to trade Adam Dunn. Look at first basemen such as Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Delgado. They don't have the defensive skills at first base, but each had brought their teams into the playoffs.
-- Yu-Hung S., Chiayi, Taiwan

They didn't singlehandedly bring their teams to the playoffs...it takes a whole team of talent to matter. I hope the Nats do the right thing and move either Dunn or Willingham for a great young starting pitcher before the season.

What is the status of left-hander Jack McGeary? Is he a Major League talent? Will he get a look at next year's Spring Training?
-- Larry L., Spring Springs, Md.

I like what Spin Williams said in this article: “Some of Jack’s numbers aren’t what you would like to see but he has competed. We really feel good about his progress. He’s really still a first-year player.’’ He wasn't so impressive this year, but what can you really expect from a guy going from 63 and 2/3 innings to 112 innings? The fact that he made it through the season is impressive. The walk rates are frightening, but he has plenty of time to straighten them out...he's only 20 for goodness sake.

Do you see the Nats going after right-hander Pedro Martinez if he becomes a free agent?
-- Isaac R., Baltimore

I doubt it. They didn't go hard after him this season and he's only going to be more expensive and a year older next year.

I would love to see the Nationals add someone like Mark De Rosa to their lineup. He could be a huge upgrade.

-- Travis A., Cornelius, N.C.

I like DeRosa, but he only had a .319 OBP this year...while it will probably stabilize to the .340s or .350s, he'll be 35 next year coming off of a poor year. If he comes cheap, I'll take him, but not at more than $1.5 million.

The Nationals played better when Ian Desmond and Justin Maxwell were in the lineup. Why is it that the fans always seem to "wait" with our prospects when it's clear they have the ability to play at this level? The atmosphere at the ballpark was completely different when these kids took the field. Your thoughts?

-- Mick F., Springfield, Md.

There is no question that Maxwell and Desmond are incredibly talented, but Desmond hadn't broken a .800 OPS in the minors since 2004 and Maxwell was pretty awful in AAA even this year. Don't overlook sample size with early ML results.

2010 Roster Building-Right Fielders

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Right Field. Follow along with the series here.

RIGHT FIELDERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Elijah Dukes and Mark DeRosa

Other possibilities in the organization: Justin Maxwell and Leonard Davis

The Nats really, really, REALLY need Elijah Dukes to return to his 2008 form next year. Why is that? There is no other option on the market for a full-time RF that the Nats would realistically go after (or that would want to come to the Nats). Dukes has significantly lower power and walk numbers this year in addition to huge drop in defensive value in RF. FJB suggests Dukes needs to find himself in more hitters counts, and it certainly makes sense. We know Dukes is capable of returning to his 2008 self in terms of power. We can hope he returns to that form in terms of his eye and his defense. I believe he'll rebound, and I don't believe for a second that the Nats would non-tender him. It doesn't make sense from a talent perspective, but it also doesn't make sense when you consider the poor free agent market.

The best option out there for the Nats is Mark DeRosa, who would fit in very well with the Nats. It would give them a backup plan at 2B in case the Guzman transition fails, a good corner OF platoon guy and really a competant fielder at every position besides C and CF. It wouldn't be fair to call DeRosa a "bench guy" (and obviously, he wouldn't agree to that role), but he would be a nomad of sorts, playing mostly 2B and RF. I think he would be a good signing and would continue to give the Nats more options defensively.

As I've said before about Maxwell and Davis, neither are really ideal candidates, but that's the (lack of) depth of the Nats in AAA/AA. Mike Daniel could emerge as another option, but his setback season in 2009 doesn't exactly help his candidacy.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Austin Kearns

Apparently his value didn't bottom out after the 2008 season. I'll avoid talking about Kearns a whole lot, but he is what he is: a 29 year old plus defender who was seeing 70s and 80s in his R and RBI totals only two seasons ago. The Nats certainly won't pick up his option, but Kearns might flock back to familiarity in a weak free agent market. I wouldn't bet on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Jermaine Dye

It may seem out of the blue, but Dye may be the Nats' one chance of making a statement in the free agent market this offseason. I don't see them chasing Holliday or Bay, but could go after Dye if the White Sox fail to pick up his option or offer him arbitration (he's a type A free agent, and not really worth giving up the draft picks). He's still a slugger, but is poor in the field, so it may seem like another Dunn/Willingham addition, but if the Nats for some reason non-tender Dukes (they shouldn't, but that's not to say that they couldn't), he could be an option.

2009 production by Nats right fielders to date: .247/.345/.444, 21 HR, 59 R, 84 RBI

2010 projection: Improved slash line, similar number of HR/RBI, more runs. Less Kearns/2009 Dukes=more production.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

2010 Roster Building-Center Fielders

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Center Field. Follow along with the series here.

CENTER FIELDERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris

Other possibilities in the organization: Justin Maxwell and Elijah Dukes

Let me point out first that I love Nyjer Morgan. Let me point out second that he is not as much of a sure thing as we think. Is he ridiculously fast? Yes. Is he a ridiculolusly good defensive centerfielder? Yes. Is he a legit leadoff man? Ehhhh...I'm still not convinced.

Morgan showed excellent improvement in his batting eye in the first part of the year with Pittsburgh (from less than 6% in both ML and AAA in 2008 to 9.4% in his 278 plate appearances with the Pirates) but regressed greatly with the Nats (back down to 5.4%). It is not safe to assume he will walk at the same rate in 2010 as he did in 2009, nor is it safe to assume that he will even come close to the robust .351/.396/.435 batting line he put up for the Nats. If he stays below a 6% walk rate, he'd have to hit .290 or above to maintain the .350 OBP that is asthetically pleasing for a leadoff man.

What we do know is that Nyjer is an excellent fielder and a better baserunner than in his past (a 77% success rate is good, and much better than his 64% success rate with Pittsburgh). These two traits in themselves are incredibly valuable, so much that before Nyjer's breakout in Washington, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argued that he was just as valuable as Adam Dunn. What we do not know is if Nyjer is really the leadoff man we expect him to be. I certainly hope he is (and believe he is), but it's not as much of a sure thing as we think.

In terms of the other guys, Dukes would only be the long-term CF if a player outside of the organization was brought in to play RF and Morgan was injured. Even so, I would expect Maxwell and Harris to pass him on the food chain, like they have this year. Harris could have a big bounce-back year, as his BB% and isolated slugging have either risen or stayed constant but his batting average has bottomed out. If his luck evens out, he could have another 2008-level season in 2010. Maxwell continues to disappoint me, but I do believe he'll eventually be at the very least a good 4th outfielder for the Nats.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Norris Hopper

Sitting in AAA is a player not dissimilar to Nyjer Morgan. Hopper has hopped from organization to organization in 2009, coming over to the Nats in August along with Daryle Ward from the White Sox. FJB ran a nice post about Hopper's value when Morgan came down, and I do believe he would be an excellent player to have as a 5th outfielder and start in CF vs left-handed opposing pitchers (for the record, Morgan is very bad against LHP in his career: .200/.302/.286 in 183 plate appearances whereas Hopper is very good against LHP in his career: .367/.406/.456 in 175 plate appearances). Hopper is basically a right-handed version of Nyjer Morgan (minus a little speed and fielding ability, but not so much that he's below average). It almost makes too much sense to happen, and I really wish the Nats would have given him a shot rather than the obviously not ML-ready Justin Maxwell during the roster expansion.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Rocco Baldelli

Just as my Randy Winn pick from yesterday, I could see the Nats bringing Baldelli aboard as a Kearns-type, albeit one with more fielding ability and upside. Baldelli might cost a little bit more based on his decent 2009 season (.254/.315/.462). With his walks and strikeouts rising over his career averages and his isolated power staying steady, I don't think Baldelli is much different of a player than he was in the mid-2000s with the Rays (other than the knowledge of the form of channelopathy he suffers from), and still possesses huge upside. I do expect him to stick with the hometown Red Sox, though, until he truly gets back on his feet from a medical perspective.

2009 production by Nats center fielders to date: .268/.349/.390, 8 HR, 75 R, 53 RBI, 37/53 SB

2010 projection: I expect the slash line to remain semi-constant, with the batting average probably improving into the .280-.290 range (depending on how much Morgan plays), but with the OBP and SLG remaining similar. Runs will improve, but not as much as one might expect, as Morgan does run into a lot of outs on the basepaths. I do believe that next year will be the year that Morgan finally takes the next step into baserunning responsibility. He is a special talent and a smart player, and I think that he could finally become a premiere baserunner (not just basestealer) next year.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Guess what time it is? If you guessed Inbox time, you're right!

After two seasons of almost 200 losses, I think the Nationals need to sign some free agents to bridge the gap. Is management seriously considering acquiring veteran starting pitching, a few relief pitchers and at least two position players?
-- Joseph M., Eynon, Pa.

I expect the Nats to sign a veteran SP or two (but no more than that), a handful of mediocre relievers and a 2B. Not enough to compete with, but enough to continue the build...and the top 10 draft picks.

Do you see the Nationals trying to trade for Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla in the offseason? Washington has made many trades with Florida in the past, and it would be great if Uggla could be the Nationals' long-term solution at second base.
-- Patrick S., Fairfax, Va.

I doubt they would go in this direction. They don't really need another good bat/bad glove guy. If anything, they'll go after a leadoff/#2 hitter type who can handle the glove well to fill in at 2B.

With the pickup of Nyjer Morgan in center field, do you believe Justin Maxwell has trade value? I feel he could develop into a star center fielder if given the opportunity to grow and have a decent amount of at-bats.
-- Mick F., Springfield, Va.

I disagree. Until Maxwell can prove that he can handle the bat, I doubt anyone would give up anything that would make it worth it for the Nats to trade him. He'll be a National for a while I believe.

With Greg Maddux's brother, Mike, doing a great job in Texas, do you feel there might be a chance for Greg to come to the Nationals as a pitching coach?
-- Andy C., Nevada, Mo.

If anyone can go from never being an acutal pitching coach to being an ML pitching coach, it's Greg Maddux. I doubt it would happen, but it would be quite a catch for the Nats.

What are the odds of keeping Livan Hernandez? He has more commitment to D.C. than anyone I've ever seen. Why not?
-- Rafael B., Miami

We'll see how much committment he has to DC if they only offer him a minor league contract. I doubt they would offer him anything more than that, but stranger things have happened...

What are the Nationals' plans for Alberto Gonzalez?
-- Chris P., Alabama

I think he thrives in a part-time role as opposed to a starting role. They definitely need to hold on to him, but I don't see them relying on him to do anything more than backup Guzman/Desmond/the other middle infielders.

I would like to see the Nationals sign Vladimir Guerrero and undo one of the biggest mistakes in Nats/Expos history.
-- Michael R., St. John's, Canada

No. Guerrero has begun a clear decline, one that has seen his BB rate drop to 4.5% this year and his isolated power dropping below .200 for the first time since 1997. He's still an offensively valuable player for the time being, but, as Ladson says, the Nats are better off going for players with upside, not those on the decline.

And for the record, the 2010 Roster Building series will continue sometime tonight with shortstop!

Roster building

Today is not August 31. Okay, that's a bit of a lie. It is August 31, but today really is September call-ups eve. Even though the Nats have gone on record to say that they aren't making any call-ups until AAA Syracuse finishes their season on September 7 (assuming the Chiefs don't make the playoffs), it's still way past the time to make predictions.

Here are my picks:

C Gustavo Molina

From what we've heard, the Nats are going to call-up a 3rd catcher. Problem is-the three catchers who could possibly be candidates are all pretty awful. Luke Montz, the only candidate on the 40-man roster, hasn't had a multi-hit game since June 20 in AA, without missing any large stretches of time. Jhonatan Solano showed a bit of promise with a .280 batting average in 95 AA plate appearances, but has struggled imensely in AAA, with a .196/.236/.262 triple slash there in 184 plate appearances. This leaves Gustavo Molina, who should never appear on any ML roster, let alone a potential third in the Nats. He hasn't exactly torn up AAA this year, hitting .208/.235/.313. And no, he's not related to Bengie, Jose or Yadier. But given his tiny advantage in terms of ML experience (and the fact that he's regarded as a decent defender by Brian from NFA), Molina gets my vote.

SS Ian Desmond

The past four years or so have been fairly tumultuous for the Nats' (well, actually the Expos') 3rd rounder from 2004. Ever since being compared to Derek Jeter by both former Nats GM Jim Bowden and assistant to the GM Jose Cardenal in Spring Training 2005, the performance hasn't matched the hype behind the young SS from Sarasota, FL. That is, until this year, where Desmond has hit a combined .326/.398/.484 between AA and AAA. With an arm good enough to be named the best of both the International League (AAA) and Eastern League (AA) by Baseball America, the tools are coming together. If he can cut down on his errors and hit even 75% as well as he has this year, he might never go back down to the minors.

OF Justin Maxwell

It's more of a necessity than a deserved call-up, but it's going to happen nonetheless, according to Nationals Journal. It's not that Maxwell is bad-he's already an excellent fielder and has almost identical career minor league numbers to Mike Cameron (Maxwell's .257/.351/.442 to Cameron's .258/.343/.424). He's simply not ready for the bigs, having been overpowered in AAA this year. The 30% strikeout rates need to stop for him to be considered for a promotion, but a lack of CF depth in the system will force the Nats to recall him tomorrow. Norris Hopper would have been a better option in my opinion, but Maxwell is a) the future and b) on the 40-man roster.

LHSP Ross Detwiler, RHSP Shairon Martis and RHSP Collin Balester

Detwiler, Martis and Balester go together because they are almost surely locks to be called up. Detwiler has pitched 22 less innings in 2009 than in 2008, with Martis pitching 3 more than 2008 and Balester 30 less than 2008, so all three have a fair amount of innings left to throw. (Side note-I suggest checking out NFA's September call-up post for the innings pitched breakdowns of all of the candidates.) Brian from NFA noted in the comments of the above link that Balester may be shut down due to poor performance rather than IP counts, which could open a door for Marco Estrada.

RHP Zach Segovia

Segovia has been solid in AA/AAA this year, with a combined 3.34 ERA in 67 and 1/3 innings and a much higher K/9 rate than at any other point in his minor league career (8.2 K/9 overall this year as opposed to a 5.8 K/9 career average and a previous career high over a full season of 6.7. Most importantly, he can eat innings, as many of the current Nats young starters will likely be shut down early. Out of all of the pitchers after Detwiler/Martis, I'd say Segovia is the closest to a lock due to his stamina and experience at higher levels.

RHP Clint Everts

Everts is pretty much the anti-Wilkie. As the 5th overall draft pick in a 2002 draft that saw Royals ace Zack Greinke go 6th overall, Brewers slugger Prince Fielder 7th and Phillies ace Cole Hamels 17th, it would be ideal to squeeze out at least a little bit of production. While Everts' days as a starting pitcher are long gone, he looks to be fairly good out of the bullpen, with strikeout rates trending up and walk rates trending down since being converted to a reliever during the 2007 season. While the Nats don't necessarily have to "save face" by promoting him, it would be nice to see them get at least a smidge of performance from that stud-laden draft.

RHP Josh Wilkie

A Disney story in the making, the undrafted Wilkie has been ridiculously good in his 4-year minor league career. With a career 2.91 ERA and consistently low FIP's (click the link to learn more on Fielding Independent Pitching), he has both the ideal actual performance and expected performance to earn him a spot on the Nats.

I'm admittedly not very high on LHRP Yunior Novoa, RHSP Marco Estrada or LHRP Jack Spradlin, all of whom have put up decent 2009 numbers. If any of the 3 get a call-up, it will be Estrada, as he is already on the 40-man roster.

Other dark horses include LHP Aaron Thompson (needs to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 Draft this offseason but probably too high in innings), LHP Horacio Ramirez (unlikely due to poor performance with Syracuse), 1B Daryle Ward (unlikely due to poor performance with Syracuse), OF Norris Hopper (possible, but unlikely due to the calling up of Maxwell), IF Seth Bynum (unlikely due to poor AAA performance in 2009, low BB rates and high K rates), IF/OF Kory Casto (unlikely due to lack of sustained power since 2007), 1B Brad Eldred (possibility, but due to the fact that he's an Adam Dunn all power-no glove clone at 1B, I doubt it).

Note-Molina, Segovia, Everts and Wilkie need to be added to the 40-man roster. The Nats are currently standing at 39/40 roster spots, but have up to 5 players who can be placed on the 60-day DL, as they are likely out for the season: RHP Ryan Mattheus, LHP Scott Olsen, C Jesus Flores, OF Austin Kearns and OF Nyjer Morgan. Off the top of my head, Flores has missed enough time retroactively that, if healthy enough, he could be placed on the 60-day DL now and be able to be activated at any point still.

Morgan out for the year: who will replace him?

By now, I'm sure most of you have heard that Nyjer Morgan is out for the season, after breaking his hand sliding into third. That leaves us with a gaping hole to fill for the last 34 games of the season. I've come up with a list of players both inside and outside of the organization who could fill in for Morgan in CF for the remainder of the season.

Internal options:

Willie Harris-Probably the most popular option amongst the Natmosphere, but is it the right one? He's not a natural CF, and despite being fast, is not much more than average defensively. I expect Willie to get more starting time at CF, but would highly doubt seeing the Nats hand him the full-time role.

Elijah Dukes-Moving Dukes to CF gives the Nats the most flexibility, as they do have plenty of corner outfielders who can fill in at least temporarily there. Dukes is not as good of a defensive CF as Willie Harris, but the ability to have Harris fill in around the field and off of the bench may be more valuable than the difference in fielding ability.

Jorge Padilla-In a a pinch, sure. As a starter, no.

Justin Maxwell-I'd like to see Maxwell finish the year in the minors and get a grasp on hitting. He's a good fielder, but he simply doesn't have the bat yet.

Norris Hopper-read up about this possibility at FJB.

External options:

Matt Murton-Adding Murton would likely shift Dukes to the full-time CF role, but I'm fine with that. Murton is a good, cheap, reliable player and I would love to see him in a Nats uniform. Kinda like a poor man's 2006 Austin Kearns.

Chris Duncan-Just like Murton, signing Duncan would probably shift Dukes to CF. Unlike Murton, Duncan is a free agent, and would only cost the Nats the pro-rated league minimum for the rest of the season (Murton was DFA'ed, giving the Rockies 10 days to try and get something for him).

My vote is for the Nats to acquire Murton or Duncan to play a corner and shift Dukes to CF, while giving Harris spot starts in CF for the rest of the year. Obviously, Nyjer being healthy would be plan #1, but that's not an option anymore.

Another one bites the dust

Cintron's out. Thank goodness!

In other transactional news, Dukes to the DL while Bergmann and Maxwell are up from AAA. All I'm waiting for now is a Cabrera DFA and a Stammen callup and we're all set!

I'm in Bloomington, MN for the night (right by the Mall of America) before heading out to Chicago tomorrow. Please check out my Twitter page for more frequent updates!

3 Game Sweep

DC teams took New York City by storm today, with the Caps dominating the Rags, the Nats crushing the Mets and DC United scoring 2 goals in the 90th minute to pull out a 3-2 victory.

In terms of the Caps, they've stolen all momentum from the series. They have a huge advantage in game 7 in terms of mojo and home field advantage. They have to win it.

The Nats looked good (on GameDay) today, with 5 and 1/3 strong innings from ZNN, homers by Flores and Kearns and a nice day by Justin Maxwell out of the leadoff spot. Also, I think it's safe to punch Cintron's ticket to Syracuse when Guz is back.

Such a good ending to a pretty fun weekend, with the NFL draft and such. Hopefully the DC teams can keep it up in the near future.

EDIT-Like clockwork, Shawn Hill to the DL.

2008-09 Winter League Conclusions

Originally, I was going to merge this post with a Spring Training post, but instead decided to do them separately. Here are 6 guys that stuck out (or in two cases, struck out) to me:

Risers

IF Anderson Hernandez (.338/.390/.489)

Anderson has made obvious improvements lately, even though I rarely admit it. He'll still never armount to much of anything with the bat, but he's started doing something pretty valuable for a career .232 hitter: not swinging. His walk % at all levels in 2008 (7.4 % in AAA, 11% in ML and 8% in the Dominican Winter Leauge/Caribbean Series) was much better than at any point since 2004, the last time he broke 6% at any level. His K % is still higher than I want, but that improved as well. For Hernandez-as well as anyone else, really-you're just looking for a continuation of the progress made in the 2008 regular season.

IF Ronnie Belliard (.307/.378/.534)

During the regular season, Belliard was phenomenal between DL stints, with a .900 OPS. His season was cut short in early September, so all I wanted was some at-bats. He had just about 100 PA in his winter league and hit well, so it was a success.

OF Justin Maxwell (.220/.400/.455)

Maxwell was only a little unlucky in terms of BABIP and saw K numbers skyrocket, so the .220 batting average isn't encouraging. He was, however every bit as good in terms of walks as he was bad in terms of K's. With career minor league K and BB %'s of 26% and 11% respectively, his 29% K% and 22% BB% in Winter League ball don't look all that bad. And, he didn't get hurt!

IF Ian Desmond (.267/.364/.525)

Desmond's percentages improved as well. His 25% K% was significantly better than his 37% career average and his 14% BB% was a little bit better than his career minor league average of 12%. Hope that this year he can match that BB% rather than the 7.5% he's put up at AA so far in his career.

Fallers

C Jesus Flores (.247/.295/.412)

His lack of plate discpline is really quite alarming. He needs to walk more than 6% of the time everywhere, even if he's playing high schoolers.

OF Edgardo Baez (.238/.262/.288)

He isn't really much of a prospect anyways, but getting blown away by Puerto Rican Winter League pitchers isn't going to help that either. Seriously, a 34% K% and 4% BB% in a league where Ben Grezlovski put up a 3.20 ERA?

If you want to check out complete stats for Nats in Winter Leagues, click here.

Answers to the mailbag

Entering Monday's action, the Nationals are 25-39 and fans want to know what the team can do to get even better. Here are some answers to some of their questions.

What the team can do to get even better? Are you high, Ladson? To be "even better," you have to be good in the first place. We need to get "better" before we can get "even better."

I'm a big Austin Kearns fan. I think he's the greatest asset to the Nats' outfield. Do you have any information on how his elbow is doing and when we can expect to see him back with the team?
-- April W., Clifton, Va.

I don't have the answer, so here's Ladson:
"He is back with the team and working out. After surgery to remove loose bodies, Kearns' right elbow is getting better and he should be back in action in two-to-four weeks."

Wait, didn't they say three-to-four weeks almost three weeks ago?

What's happened to the Nats' vaunted bullpen? There's not a single guy I feel comfortable seeing when the game is on the line. Why the drop off from last year?
-- Luke H., Southern Md.

You don't trust Rauch? Well, Cordero's hurt, Colome sucks and Ayala and Rivera aren't a whole lot better (scratch that, Ayala sucks too). Hanrahan is improving and the jury's still out on Sanches and Manning.

Frankly, I'm tired of your optimism. This team is nowhere near a contender, or a .500 club for that matter. How can any team expect to contend with the offense that the Nationals field? How do you respond to this?
-- Jon A., Stony Brook, NY

"It looks like I misread the team. I really believed that the team would do better than last year primarily because of the offense, but it's the No. 1 reason the Nationals are in fifth place. There's no doubt they need to make changes when it comes to the bats. Releasing Rob Mackowiak was a start, but it's not enough"--Ladson

LADSON PWNED!!!

Do you see the Nationals actively trying to trade any players? I think the team can honestly do without players such as Paul Lo Duca, Wily Mo Pena, Johnny Estrada and Kearns.
-- Jason H., Rockwood, Tenn.

Oh goodness, please trade Estrada!! I would love any deal getting him out of here (Estrada, contract fully paid and a dozen bats for 1 baseball). Pena and Kearns have no value, as they have contracts that go into next year (Kearns makes big money, Pena will make at least $2 mil (player option) and as much as $5 mil (team option).

Any chance Aaron Boone can play second base? Felipe Lopez hasn't been playing up to his potential.
-- Michael S., Richmond, Va.

BELLIARD IS COMING BACK SOON!! TRADE LOPEZ!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!! Geez, even cut Lopez, he's just awful. I'd rather see someone who at least looks like they want to play out there.

When are we going to see Justin Maxwell again in the Major Leagues?
-- Jim M., Harrisburg, Pa.

As Ladson said, Maxwell is DL'ed right now with a wrist injury. If Pena and Kearns don't hit when he's healthy (assuming Kearns is healthy when Maxwell gets back and gets a week or so of at bats under his belt), I think he'll get called up. I'd guess a mid-July call up for Maxwell.

With Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki getting long-term deals at reasonable prices, shouldn't the Nats negotiate a similar contract with Ryan Zimmerman?
-- Matt W., Waldorf, Md.

They are negotiating. The problem is that, as Ladson said, Zimmerman is asking for David Wright money (which is way too much) and the Nats are offering Troy Tulowitzki money (which is not enough). I still think they'll settle in the middle, around 6 years $48 mil. Maybe 5 years $40-45 mil could be a compromise as well.

Roundup on tonight's games

I'm happy that the Nats finally turned base-runners into runs (3 hits, 5 runs, only 5 LOB total!) tonight.
--Sanches got the win after striking out the side.
--Wily Mo Pena got his 1st homer (only into the second row, but it was a bullet!).
--Our 3 hits were all XBH's (Zimmerman and Flores got doubles too).
--3 2-out RBI!! YES!!!
--Our relievers threw strikes (for the most part at least).
--Dukes went down with a left ankle contusion...so maybe we'll see Maxwell after all? Depends on the severity, but signs aren't pointing to that yet. Just speculation if it's bad.

One more note: my favorite ball player Joe Saunders (attended West Springfield HS and Virginia Tech, just like me. Used to watch him pitch when I was little) threw 8 and 1/3 innings of 1-run ball (including 8 shutout innings to start the game) to bump his record to 8-1 and lower his ERA to 2.31. I was pushing for the Nats to trade Soriano for him and a hitting prospect from the Angels back in 2006. It's an interesting scenario: would you rather have Joe Saunders and a hitting prospect (perhaps Callaspo, Morales, Wood or Kendrick) or Jordan Zimmerman and Josh Smoker? I'd take Saunders and a hitting prospect, but I'm biased. Here's the 2006 Angels top prospects page, so you can go through and try and nitpick a scenario at the time...but at this point, I'd rather have Saunders than both Zimmermann and Smoker.

Kearns to the DL. Who to call up?

As I said, Kearns has been placed on the DL. He has surgery tomorrow and will be out for 3-4 weeks. Assuming whoever is called up rotates in the outfield with Milledge, Dukes and Pena, here are the pros and cons of everyone we could call up:

Kory Casto (AAA, 26 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, 6/14 in first 4 games since return from break in hamate bone (what Zimmerman broke this offseason), "experienced," can play 1B/3B as well.
Cons: Just returned from hamate bone break, can't play CF, 7/54 in ML duty for the Nats last year.

Alex Escobar (AAA, 29 years old, player page)
Pros: Can play all OF positions, hit well in the Majors in 2006 (.356/.394/.575 in 87 AB), hitting .315 in 92 at bats in AAA this year.
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, returned from hamstring injury at the beginning of May, always injured, career .258/.328/.415 hitter, only played in 14 games last year so may not be able to catch up to ML pitching, doesn't run as fast as he used to due to knee/hamstring/leg injuries.

Ryan Langerhans (AAA, 28 years old, player page)
Pros: Excellent fielder, can play all OF positions, hitting .306 in 144 AB this year in AAA
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, you remember last year...(.198/.296/.370 in 162 AB with the Nats...adds up to a .666 OPS...coincidence? I think not), recent hamstring "tweak" (still played tonight), power numbers down this year (isolated slugging of .172 last year with the Nats, .132 this year in AAA)

Mike Daniel (AA, 23 years old, player page)
Pros: Can play all OF positions, hitting .315 in 149 AB in AA. According to NFA: good contact hitter, a little gap power, okay speed and great base-running instincts.
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, no experience above AA, not a whole lot of power, has 2 generic male first names (3 if you include his middle name, John).

Justin Maxwell (AA, 24 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, can play all OF positions, local (Sherwood High, UMD alum), tons of potential, proved last year he can hit ML pitching (.269/.296/.500 in 26 AB), patience is way way way up this year (31 BB/27 K as opposed to 50/122 in the minors last year), fast, sexy, etc.
Cons: Not hitting for average this year (.248 in 138 AB), hasn't started since May 17 (NFA suspects either injury or being held out for a call-up), historically old for his level (could lead to some statistical inflation).

Roger Bernadina (AA, 23 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, can play all 3 OF positions, fast, hitting .321 in 129 at bats in AA.
Cons: Career minor league line of .255/.340/.370 uninspiring, 2007 line of .259/.338/.356 also uninspiring, little power.

The Verdict: First the disclaimer: the 40-man roster stands at 38 right now, so it shouldn't be a huge deal adding someone to it at this point. I suppose that could still theoretically work against Daniel, but Langerhans and Escobar have both passed waivers at some point, so unless they tear up the majors, they'll probably be able to slip through once again.

Here's how I rank them:
1) Maxwell-Assuming he's healthy and gets semi-regular at-bats. He's our best talent and he's on the 40-man. Why not?
2) Escobar-Assuming he's healthy. Good candidate to pump up value and deal at the deadline. Would have to add to the 40-man.
3) Langerhans-We know what we'll get out of him, so I'd prefer to get more answers from the others. If his hamstring leaves him less than 90%, a definite no. Would have to add to the 40-man.
4) Casto-We don't really need another 1B/3B/corner outfielder since we have Boone, Mackowiak, Pena to cover those. He does deserve another shot in the majors, though, and is still only 26.
5) Daniel-Why start his service time and add him to the 40-man now? He needs a full season (or at least from now till the beginning of August) in AA/AAA at the very least before he's ready to face ML pitching.
6) Bernadina-Looks too much like an Endy Chavez/Nook Logan clone. But he does look like a better fielder at this point. Still too early to start his service time, he needs more than 129 at bats of .321 average to annul his .259 average last year against AA/AAA pitching.

Ideally, I'd like the Nats to send Elijah Dukes down to AAA and call up Justin Maxwell and Alex Escobar. Dukes and Maxwell both have tons of potential, so I'd like to see them flip-flopped. Escobar can spell the new outfield of Pena-Maxwell-Milledge when needed.

UPDATE-5/23, 1:25 AM
Just noticed the Harrisburg Senators (AA) are playing in Connecticut. Might be difficult to get a guy to Washington in time if they don't announce it soon (or if it doesn't leak soon). I wouldn't count out the AA guys but I'd say it's about a 5-10% better chance an AAA guy gets the call now as opposed to before.