Do or Die Time: Tyler Clippard

Tyler Clippard may be seen by some as an odd choice for this series, as he actually had a career year in 2009. So rather than guessing whether he'll bounce back from an iffy year like Alaniz, Burgess, Marrero and Maxwell, I'll talk about the likelihood of Clippard repeating his awesome 2009 season, specifically because he's out of options.

Tyler Clippard, 25 years old, RHRP
Drafted 9th round, 274th overall in 2003 by the New York Yankees.
Acquired via trade in 12/2007 for RHRP Jonathan Abaladejo.

2009 stats:
Syracuse-AAA: 4-1, 0.92 ERA, 24 G, 0 GS, 1 S, 39 IP, 4.6 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.897 WHIP
Washington-ML: 4-2, 2.69 ERA, 41 G, 0 GS, 0 S, 60 1/3 IP, 5.4 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.8 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 1.127 WHIP
Total: 8-3, 1.98 ERA, 65 G, 0 GS, 1 S, 99 1/3 IP, 5.1 H/9, 0.99 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 1.03 WHIP

Career stats:
Minors: 51-52, 3.59 ERA, 164 G, 131 GS, 1 S, 791 1/3 IP, 7.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.185 WHIP
Majors: 8-4, 3.87 ERA, 49 G, 8 GS, 0 S, 97 2/3 IP, 7.1 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 1.362 WHIP
(Note: before 2009, all of Clippard's ML experience was as a starter for the Yankees, putting up a 6.33 ERA in 27 IP)

The question is not “will Tyler Clippard regress in 2010?” but instead “how much will Tyler Clippard regress in 2010?” There is no way he can sustain a 2.69 ERA a ridiculously low .207 BABIP and a ridiculously high 86.9% LOB%. Add that to his BB/9 rates hovering in the mid-to-high 4's and HR/9 rates around 1.35 and he's not even really an average pitcher.

I expect Clippard to regress to the low to mid 4 ERA range, which is still decent for a Nats reliever (albeit bad for a relief pitcher in general). If he can lower his BB/9 to below 4 while keeping his K/9 in the 8s or above, I think he'll remain a pretty good pitcher.

Recent scouting notes:
"Holy cow! (Clippard's throwing motion) does not look natural"-Driveline Mechanics, 8/3/09.

"0.92 ERA with 42/15 K/BB in 39 innings for Syracuse, 2.50 ERA with 42/18 K/BB in 36 innings for the Nationals. I took flak for rating him this high, so I'm glad to see that he's done well."-John Sickels, Minor League Ball, 8/26/09

"My friend Deric McKamey in his 2007 Minor League Baseball Analyst rates Clippard as a potential number five starter, and points out that he gets his strikeouts with movement and deception, not pure velocity. Baseball America ranks Clippard as the number seven Yankees prospect, projects him as a fourth starter, and notes that he "pitches backward," using fastballs in breaking ball counts and vice versa."-Sickels, 2/9/07

"None of his pitches classify as anything more than average but he does bring three pitches to the mound (87-91 fastball, curve and change). His ceiling is realistically a #4 or 5 starter but I believe his move to the National League and opportunity to work with Randy St. Claire will pay dividends for the Nationals."-Brian Oliver, Nats Farm Authority, 2/21/08

Links:
FanGraphs
Baseball-Reference (Majors)

Baseball-Reference (Minor Leagues)

Do or Die Time: Justin Maxwell

A reminder: I have formed a partnership with The Miz of Fight for Old DC to feature some of my posts on the site. Please go to FFODC.com, join the forums and comment away!

Next in line of my "Do or Die Time" prospects to take a closer look at is outfielder Justin Maxwell. Check out my previous posts on Adrian Alaniz, Michael Burgess and Chris Marrero if you have a chance.

Justin Maxwell, 26 years old, OF

Drafted 4th round, 114th overall in 2005.

2009 stats:

Syracuse-AAA: .242/.344/.396, 10 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 68 R, 35/43 SB (448 PA)

Washington-ML: .247/.343/.449, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 13 R, 6/7 SB (102 PA)

Career stats:

Minors: .257/.351/.442, 54 2B, 15 3B, 52 HR, 193 RBI, 233 R, 104/129 SB (1506 PA)

Majors: .252/.333/.461, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 6/7 SB (129 PA)

I like Justin Maxwell a lot. That may be a surprise to some that read my blog, but I'm a big fan. He's very athletic and a good defensive outfielder. He hits plenty of homers but also steals some bases. So why have I traditionally been against giving Maxwell a consistent ML roster spot? He scares me.

How could such a nice young man scare me? Unrealistic expectations. Maxwell has never hit for a high average in the minors and strikes out a ton (we're talking 30% of the time). He has plenty of ML-ready tools, including power, speed, defense, and the ability to take a walk. But I can't see Maxwell hitting much more than .230 in the majors at this point in his development.

I do see a light at the end of the tunnel, though. In August, I noted that Maxwell and Mike Cameron's minor league numbers are eerily similar.

Maxwell: .257/.351/.442
Cameron: .258/.344/.424

Additionally, after the 1994 season, Cameron's career looked to have pretty much stalled out. He followed up an awful 1993 season in A-ball with a .248/.343/.391 triple slash playing for the Prince William Cannons in '94. Cameron improved a little bit in 1995 before breaking out with a 1.002 OPS in '96, which essentially vaulted him into the majors. Maxwell's '08 season was stalled by injuries and he hit .242/.344/.396 in AAA last year (eerily similar again!). I'm hoping this year will be his "improvement" stage and 2011 will be his breakout year. If he continues to stall out, I think he'll end up as a good 4th OF, but never a true starter.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .260/.355/.450 in AAA, .230/.325/.400 in ML

I think Maxwell will tweak his swing to hit for a higher average in AAA, but at the same time I expect his batting average to drop a bit if he plays for a more extended period in the majors. This is the last year for Maxwell to work out the kinks; at 26 years old, what you see is what you get.

Major League ETA: Now

Recent scouting notes:

"He’s on this list because he still technically qualifies as a rookie but I’m not sure he’s ever going to develop into anything more than a #4 or 5 OF. This is not necessarily a bad thing as teams need those guys, but given the expectations he had, it is somewhat of a disappointment."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"What you see is what you get: power, walks, speed, low batting average. Can they look past that and appreciate his secondary skills?."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs

Baseball-Reference

Do or Die Time: Adrian Alaniz

The third member of my "Do or Die Time" series is pitcher Adrian Alaniz.

Adrian Alaniz, 25 years old (26 in March), RHP

Drafted in the 8th round in 2007, 250th overall.

2009 stats:

Vermont-SS: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 2 GS, 9 IP, 3.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9

Harrisburg-AA: 3-4, 4.76 ERA, 24 G, 10 GS, 64 1/3 IP, 9.7 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9

Total: 4-4, 4.17 ERA, 26 G, 12 GS, 73 1/3 IP, 8.8 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9

Career stats:

21-11, 3.32 ERA, 64 G, 45 GS, 261 1/3 IP, 7.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

Alaniz's 2009 season was a bit of a disappointment, after bulldozing through Vermont in 07 and holding his own in Potomac and Harrisburg in 08. The key comparison between his 08 and 09 seasons in AA look bad on the surface, as his ERA rose from 3.93 in AA in 2008 to 4.76 in 2009. And while his BB/9 and H/9 rates went up a bit, his BABIP against rose .051 between the years. There's your red flag; Alaniz went from being a relatively lucky pitcher (.267 BABIP in AA in 08) to an unlucky one (.318 in 09).

Looking at Alaniz's 2009 season on the whole does not really tell the whole story. He had a disastrous may, going 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA in 21 IP over 6 starts. After his awful May, Alaniz settled down and finished the year, pitching mostly out of the bullpen with a sparkling 1.14 ERA over 39 and 2/3 innings. Alaniz's potential probably lies in the bullpen rather than the rotation, but his career is far from over after a disappointing 09.

Major League ETA: September 2012

Links:

FanGraphs

Baseball-Reference

Do or Die Time: Michael Burgess

Next in my series of Nats prospects who need to make a move in 2010 is slugging outfielder Michael Burgess.

Michael Burgess, 21 year old, OF
Drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007, 49th overall.

2009 stats:
Potomac-high A: .235/.325/.410, 23 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 63 R (545 PA)

Career stats:
.254/.345/.463, 59 2B, 10 3B, 54 HR, 192 RBI, 167 R (1323 PA)

Burgess is about as far from a sure thing as you will ever find. He has ridiculous power potential (career ISO of .209). He walks a lot (10.1% or better at every level in his career) but strikes out even more (28.1% or higher at every level in his career). Burgess simply does not make enough contact to be seen as a "top prospect" anymore, even though he has the potential to be a power hitting star. It would not surprise me if he ended up as a ML Regular, but it would not surprise me if he never reaches the bigs either.

If I could choose one comparable player to Burgess, it would be Nats youngster Justin Maxwell. Maxwell has below average marks in contact and strikeouts, but has a lot of power and raw talent. If Burgess can put it together like Maxwell appears to have done, he'll be a solid ML regular. The one thing Burgess has on his side is youth: he has only played two full seasons in the minors, at 19 and 20 years old. He is by no means locked into his performances over that time.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .250/.340/.470
I can see Burgess' numbers stabilizing a bit, with the power sustained and the contact raising a little bit closer to his career averages in a second year in Potomac.

Major League ETA: September 2012

Recent scouting notes:
"The ultimate three true outcome guy (walk, strikeout, home run). I have not seen the development in strike zone judgment I would have hoped for. In my opinion, he could use more seasoning in Potomac in 2010."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"Some (top prospects) have not developed as hoped and still are “getting by” on reputation (Burgess)."-NFA, 11/10/09

"Strengths: Plus power, excellent arm strength and solid defense. Weaknesses: Does not hit for average, not a lot of speed, needs to be more patient hitter."-NationalsProspects.com

"Power potential, throwing arm, and youth are big positives, will take a walk, but strikes out a lot and batting average is quite low."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs
Baseball-Reference

Do or Die Time: Chris Marrero

I am pleased to announce that I have formed a partnership with The Miz of Fight for Old DC to feature some of my posts on the site. Please go to FFODC.com, join the forums and comment away!

Let's face the truth: not every hot prospect makes it to the big leagues. There is really no such thing as a "can't miss" guy; every player is susceptible to some degree of injuries as well as potential ineffectiveness. I'm going to look at some Nats prospects who have fallen off a bit over the last year or two and analyze whether they will bounce back or not. Today I'll look at 2006 1st rounder Chris Marrero.

Chris Marrero, 22 year old, 1B

Drafted 1st round, 15th overall in 2006.

2009 stats:

Potomac-high A: .287/.360/.464, 21 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 58 R (414 PA)

Harrisburg-AA: .267/.345/.387, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R (75 PA)

Overall: .284/.358/.452, 27 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 67 R (489 PA)

Career stats:

.276/.345/.462, 76 2B, 7 3B, 51 HR, 218 RBI, 188 R (1466 PA)

Marrero's 2009 was actually encouraging in the fact that he stayed healthy and got a good number of at bats. He hit very well in Potomac, which was a good sign considering he missed the end of the 2008 season with a broken fibula. His contact rate slipped a little bit in his short stint in Harrisburg, but his power fell off significantly.

While there was a clear and drastic drop in power in Harrisburg, I am not particularly worried for two reasons. First, the jump from A ball to AA is seen by some as the most difficult to do in the game; there is obviously some sort of adjustment period needed to be able to judge his stats for real. Second, the sample size is very small (84 plate appearances in 23 games). Marrero's rate stats stayed constant during the jump from A to AA, so I'm confident he will rebound in 2010.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .265/.340/.460

I expect his batting average to drop a little bit in the full-season jump to AA, but I think the BB rate and isolated power will remain semi-constant with his career averages.

Major League ETA: September 2011

Recent scouting notes:

"The initial pronouncements of a future middle of the order power bat have faded but he still has the chance to develop into a solid regular. His glove is going to be his biggest hurdle to reaching that status."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"The picture of Marrero has come into sharper focus. While last year, BA may have seen him as being more of an impact bat, the 2009 season began to paint a picture of a ceiling as a solid major league regular."-NFA, 12/3/09

"Marrero’s entire 2009 season combined showed a lot of progress. During the regular season he showed the kind of power he brings to the table. Then in the winter league he proved that he has the ability to hit for average as well, but sacrificed some home runs. Lets hope that in 2010 he can balance both sides out and hit for a high average with plenty of dingers into the outfield stands."-NationalsProspects.com

"I don't think he's going to be a star, but with proper development he can be a solid regular."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs

Baseball-Reference