Inbox Spectacular

In what looks to be the last inbox before Opening Day, Bill Ladson discussed the team's speed, Jermaine Dye and the #5 starter situation. Here's what I have to say:

Do you like the speed the Nats are displaying on the bases this spring? I really hope to see a lot of it during the regular season.
-- Garin S., Austin, Texas

The speed isn't what is exciting for me. What I like the most is that the Nats have a bunch of guys that know how to use it. Generally speaking, you need to have a 75% rate or better for it to be worth stealing bases. Willie Harris has a 77% SB success rate with the Nats. Ian Desmond was 22/27 across all levels last year (81%). Nyjer Morgan was 24/31 with the Nats last year (77%). Willy Taveras is 194/236 (82%) over his career. Roger Bernadina has a 78% rate in his minor league career.

While guys like Taveras, Harris and Bernadina may be better off as bench/utility players, I have to give them credit; they ARE good base-stealers.

(EDIT-the Nats have stolen bases at a 79% rate in Spring Training. Nice.)

With the 25-man roster almost set, will the Nationals have a winning record this year?
--Billy P., Washington D.C.

Don't bet on it. If the Nats want a legitimate shot at a winning record, they would need to start the year with Storen and Strasburg on the big league squad in addition to signing/trading for a legitimate RF. Even if that were the case, their chances would still be slim-this team isn't quite ready to make that jump yet in my opinion. I expect them to win 72-78 wins with what they have in the system now.

After watching Matt Capps' below-average performance this spring, do you think he's the best choice for the closer role?
-- Daniel O, Centreville, Va.

Capps wasn't great, but neither were Bruney or Clippard. All three had disappointingly high walk rates and for anyone to surpass Capps on the depth chart in Spring Training, they would have needed to be lights-out. Since Bruney and Clippard couldn't do that, Capps wins by default. I won't be worried about Capps until the second or third week of April if his stats are still lackluster.

In your opinion, who should be the fifth starter and why?

-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm glad the Nats didn't go with Olsen. Spending time in Syracuse will allow him to work on his arm strength in a lower pressure environment where he (hopefully) won't rush his progress. I agree with Farid Rushdi, however, that J.D. Martin would have been a better option than Mock. I've always had a soft spot for Mock, but from a statistical standpoint I can't see why he is a better option at this point, especially since both have options left. My only guess is that the Nats see their rotation as a bunch of pitch to contact types in Lannan, Marquis, Hernandez and Stammen and they would rather have one guy who can rack up some K's than another guy who relies on his defense for outs.

When are the Nationals going to sign Jermaine Dye?
-- Jerry J., Atlanta

Not soon enough. Even though Dye is an awful defensive outfielder, he's at the very least a better platoon candidate than Willy Taveras. And I'm sure that even if he hits at an average rate (say, .250/.340/.453 like he hit in 2009), the Nats will be able to find a taker for him at the Trade Dealine.

. What do you make of Jason Marquis' struggles this spring? How worried are you?
-- Austin D., West Hartford, Conn.

I'm not worried. It's just Spring Training.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K...

MLBTradeRumors.com reported two odd Nats rumors/speculations today. And by odd, I mean they would be stupid and I applaud Rizzo for not making moves like these.

First up, they just relayed a MASN blog post by Pete McElroy saying the Nats should give up on Joel Hanrahan. Ummmmm, no. I stand by what I said on Monday-Hanrahan is an incredibly unlucky pitcher this year. Put a real defense behind him to give him some confidence back and he'll be fine. You don't give up a young-ish reliever who throws in the high 90s for nothing when you're in last place. I'm sorry he gives up a lot of runs sometimes, but

They also noted that Fanhouse.com reporter Ed Price said (via his Twitter) that the Nats shot down a potential Lastings Milledge-for-Nyjer Morgan deal because the Pirates also asked for Craig Stammen. Kudos for Rizzo for not accepting the deal...while Morgan is a great defender, he is crap with the bat and is not much of an overall improvement over Roger Bernadina...why sell low on Milledge for a guy you won't even need in a month or two (or how ever long it takes the rehabbing Roger to be back)?

Mailbag

The one thing I'll consistently do this offseason-answer the mailbag questions!

Who do you think will be the starting second baseman between Anderson Hernandez and Emilio Bonifacio in 2009?
-- Ray U., Shrewsbury, Mass.

No love for Belliard? Here's my fearless prediction: Bonifacio does not start the 2009 season in the majors.

Shouldn't Roger Bernadina be considered as an option for center field in 2009?
-- Luis H., San Juan, P.R.

No matter what Ladson says about Bernadina's 'swagger' his second time around, he's still not an improvement over Dukes (or Milledge for that matter). He, like Bonifacio, can still benefit from additional time in AAA and should start the season there (barring an excellent Spring Training out of either).

I get the impression you are not convinced Elijah Dukes is a solid citizen. He is one of our only hitting threats. I want his bat in the lineup next season.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I don't see how going one year without threatening someone's life makes you a solid citizen. He is still not a solid citizen, but he is a darn good ballplayer.

Why wasn't Larry Broadway called up last September? Does he have a future in the Majors?
-- Daniel C., Key West, Fla.

As Ladson said, Broadway doesn't hit home runs. Ladson's sure he'll be a major league player...I'm not so sure. First basemen who can hit .266/.352/.427 in AAA aren't hard to come across.

Why did the Nats send Ryan Langerhans to the Minor Leagues? He seemed to have so much to offer.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Because they can. While Langerhans is valuable in many ways, he still lacks major production with the bat (I say major because, while he does have good patience and power numbers, he still has huge holes in his swing and overall offensive game). His glove is valuable and he will be a National at some point this year...but he passed through waivers, so retrospectively, it was a good move.

Since the Nationals are looking for a veteran left-handed power hitter, what about signing Ken Griffey Jr.?
-- Nick K., McLean, Va.

Maybe as a coach, but Griffey is old, average offensively (.249/.353/.424 this year) and has lost a step in the outfield.

Is there anything to hang our hats on as far as going from worst to first in just one year? I realize this is speculation, but how likely is it that Washington will catch lightning in a bottle?
-- Brian Y., Takoma Park, Md.

No. Where we stand right now, we don't have the hitting, pitching or leadership to put up a winning record in 2009. Maybe with a few key free agents we can compete in 2010, but I'm going the pessimistic route and telling you not to get your hopes up.

I thought Boone was a good reserve. Could he still be with the Nationals for the 2009 season?
-- Megan, G., McLean, Va.

He could stick, but do we really want him back? .241/.299/.384 is pretty terrible. Even Larry Broadway could do that.

How long will it be until Ross Detwiler is in the starting rotation?
-- Andrew W., Alexandria, Va.

I can see the Nats pushing him up this September. Risky prediction, but it's just something I can see happening.

What has happened to Clint Everts?
-- Nick B., Houston

He, like 90% of high school pitchers drafted, flamed out. Watch out, Willems/Smoker/McGeary.

Are the Nationals waiting until after the World Series to interview coaching candidates?
-- Tom J., Reva, Va.

I'll let Ladson answer this one:

Oh, no. They have already contacted candidates such as former Mets manager Willie Randolph. Don Baylor could be a candidate. It's also assumed that Rick Eckstein will be the hitting coach. I also believe the Nationals will promote another coach from the Minor Leagues. Who that is, I don't know yet.

With the Padres shopping Jake Peavy, could the Nats become a serious contender to acquire him?
-- Brandon S., Easthampton, Mass.

Are you kidding? He would take up like 60% of the payroll! I'd love to see it happen (and it would help the team immensely), but it's not happening.

At least today can't be worse than yesterday...

Yeah, I know the Nats won. In the grand scheme of things, though, I would prefer a Hokies win to anything else. I'm not going to talk about the game any because it makes me want to cry, but I will leave the following as my statement of the game:

In other news, the Skins made their cuts. I'm very proud of Justin Hamilton for making the team and I'm also happy that Durant Brooks grabbed the punting job from Derrick Frost. Frost seems quite bitter for someone who shouldn't have had any feeling of job security. The best way to sum up the punting battle in my opinion came from The Redskins Report (via the official blog of the Redskins):

If you are one of the worst punters in the league, you’re going to have to whip the competition to win a camp battle, Frost didn’t. It was close and tie goes the guy who might not suck.

Tonight has to be the night Odalis gets dealt. He has no value to the team anymore (just blocking youngsters) and has been surprisingly effective for someone who nobody else wanted. I don't think anyone else gets moved...Colome, Boone, Nieves, Harris and Langerhans could be of some use to contending teams as well, so maybe one of them could be dealt. I'd say there's a less than 10% chance anyone gets dealt, though, and if anyone it's gotta be Odalis. Check out MLBTR's list of guys who have cleared waivers. Expect a few trades tonight before the playoff roster deadline at midnight.

Hat-tip to NFA, who was the first (or at least the first I saw) to note the Nats' press release concerning the September call-ups:
Roger Bernadina
Kory Casto
Alberto Gonzalez (activated from the DL)
Mike Hinckley
Shairon Martis
Levale Speigner

The Nats' press release has some decent detail on everyone. The other day I predicted Casto, Gonzalez, Tyler Clippard and Brian Sanches would be added, plus good possibilities that Hinckley, Luke Montz and Bernadina would get the call. I was less pessimistic on Leonard Davis, Yunior Novoa, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond and Mike Daniel, and for good reason, as none were called up. Everyone seemed to miss out on Martis, probably because they figured his innings limit was coming, but it's not a real surprise. I'm very surprised Clippard and Montz didn't get the call, but they might when the AAA season concludes (or at least Clippard might).

And about this. Are you freaking serious? Vladimir Nunez, you are not a good pitcher. Become a ML-quality reliever and then comment on the awful taunting that is celebrating after a win. Geez, what a moron. It's the second time this year a crappy pitcher has attempted to diss the Nats for being "unprofessional" after losing to them. The first one, Nelson Figueroa, is unprofessional himself, because he is no longer a professional baseball player (or at least a ML one). I have a feeling Vladdy Nunez is going to join him soon.

Wednesday Links

Just a few to throw out at you today:

Nationals Farm Authority goes through their picks for September Call-ups (with good write-ups):

Roger Bernadina
Kory Casto
Tyler Clippard
Alberto Gonzalez
Mike Hinckley
Luke Montz
Yunior Novoa
Brian Sanches
Maybe Leonard Davis

Chico Harlan of the Post also named his picks today in his chat:

Kory Casto
Mike Hinckley
Luke Montz
Roger Bernadina
Jordan Zimmermann
Leonard Davis
maybe Ian Desmond and Mike Daniel (currently in Harrisburg)

I tend to agree more with NFA than Chico. I don't see Zimmermann, Desmond or Daniel being called up. The definites are Casto, Gonzalez (he's not really a call-up per se, but he'll be added after September 1), Clippard and Sanches. Beyond that, I'd say Hinckley, Montz and Bernadina will all have 75% chances or better, followed by Davis and Novoa at 50/50. Zimmermann, Desmond and Daniel I'd say are all 25% chances at best.

Another thing to keep an eye on (from the Pirates' official website via NFA):

At the Pirates’ request, the Office of the Commissioner today placed Pedro Alvarez on Major League Baseball’s Restricted List. The Pirates were forced to request that Pedro be placed on the Restricted List because we were informed by his agent, Scott Boras, that Pedro will not sign the contract to which he agreed on August 15. Boras further informed us that Pedro will not report to the Club unless we renegotiate his contract and agree to pay him more than the $6 million signing bonus to which he agreed.

If for some reason Pedro Alvarez ends up not signing with the Pirates, it will probably void Eric Hosmer's deal as well (as Hosmer's came later than Alvarez's). And then the Nats' compensation pick for failing to sign Aaron Crow falls to number 12 overall rather than number 10.

And the last NFA link for the day (Brian has really been on a roll lately) is this one discussing the Nats' Arizona Fall League players. The guys named to the team are RHP Adam Carr, LHP Cory VanAllen, RHP Zech Zinicola, SS Ian Desmond, 1B Bill Rhinehart and 3B/OF Leonard Davis.

Last link of the day: Chris Cooley is offering an autographed jersey to whoever finds and returns Chief Zee's tomahawk.

Wat?

After reading this comment on NFA today, my first reaction: Wat? According to NFA commenter RJS, "Clippers website says Alex Escobar has been released." So I go to ClippersBaseball.com and sure enough, Alex Escobar has been released. Escobar was hitting .257/.318/.387 in his 67 games in AAA this year, so it's not a huge surprise I guess. It does come at a random time, though, as Wily Mo Pena is going to have surgery on his shoulder and will be out for an unspecified amount of time.

Guess that means it's either Mike Daniel, Roger Bernadina or Garrett Guzman in Washington soon. Between Daniel and Guzman, whoever isn't called up to the Majors will probably take Escobar's spot in Columbus.

A bunch of Nats news

As many of you saw tonight (not including myself, as I didn't have power), Lastings Milledge went down with a groin injury trying to make a play on a line drive (that ended up an Alex Cintron triple). The Nats announced he was going to the 15-day DL and Harrisburg's Roger Bernadina would be his replacement. Tough break for L-Millz and his Center Field Thrillz, but that's really the Nats' luck as of late. (edit: Chico Harlan says about Milledge in Nationals Journal: "Headed to the DL; Lastings Milledge, who injured his right groin. He'll be out 2-4 weeks."), so not as bad as I thought. Wonder if 2-4 weeks will beocme 4-6 though, with our awesome training staff!

The only good news that comes out of it: Bernadina gets a shot. The 24-year-old has spent 7 years in the Nats system after being signed at 18 out of the Netherlands Antilles (aka Curacao, I believe). He's pulling a line of .325/.397/.475 in AA right now (with a career line of .292/.364/.414 in 636 at bats in AA and .258/.343/.375 overall) and is a good baserunner (career 77% base stealer, 75% in AA, 26/35 this year). He looks to me like a lefty version of Milledge, but with a little less power and a little better defense.

Good news: Austin Kearns is said to be back next week, which will (thank goodness) keep Pena/Harris/Lo Duca/Casto out of LF as much as possible (my dad keeps saying they're "showcasing" Lo Duca in LF to boost his trade value. It makes sense, as there are some really stupid GM's out there. Apparently versatility is in the eye of the beholder). Nationals.com says that Dukes will shift back to LF (even though I think they should stick him in CF, as he's more likely to be a full-time ML CF in the future than Roger Bernadina, who I think will end up as a Tom Goodwin-like player...#4 OF, #1 pinch runner, defensive replacement). I'm a little afraid Bernadina will end up like Brandon Watson, but I'll put a little more faith in him.

Great news: Collin Balester is going to make the start on Tuesday against the Marlins. The 22-year-old righty has a 9-3 record and a 4.00 ERA in AAA Columbus this year. Hopefully, he'll never see AAA again! It's good to see Balester and Bernadina finally get a chance (unfortunately at the expense of starters Shawn Hill and Milledge), but sometimes you have to lose someone for a while to find out who is really a contender from the minors rather than a pretender. The Nats have room on the 40-man (space was made when Nick Johnson was put on the 60-day DL), but no room on the 25-man roster. Top candidates to be sent down/outrighted: Pete Orr, Jesus Colome. The dark horse is obviously Fail-ipe, who is destined to be traded to the Dark Side tomorrow night or Monday.

Yesterday, the Dark Side Bird tripped Teddy in the Presidents Race. Tonight, Teddy beat the Dark Side Bird in an "unsanctioned race" (meaning the Nats can stretch out the misery of Teddy until they feel like giving him a win).

Kearns to the DL. Who to call up?

As I said, Kearns has been placed on the DL. He has surgery tomorrow and will be out for 3-4 weeks. Assuming whoever is called up rotates in the outfield with Milledge, Dukes and Pena, here are the pros and cons of everyone we could call up:

Kory Casto (AAA, 26 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, 6/14 in first 4 games since return from break in hamate bone (what Zimmerman broke this offseason), "experienced," can play 1B/3B as well.
Cons: Just returned from hamate bone break, can't play CF, 7/54 in ML duty for the Nats last year.

Alex Escobar (AAA, 29 years old, player page)
Pros: Can play all OF positions, hit well in the Majors in 2006 (.356/.394/.575 in 87 AB), hitting .315 in 92 at bats in AAA this year.
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, returned from hamstring injury at the beginning of May, always injured, career .258/.328/.415 hitter, only played in 14 games last year so may not be able to catch up to ML pitching, doesn't run as fast as he used to due to knee/hamstring/leg injuries.

Ryan Langerhans (AAA, 28 years old, player page)
Pros: Excellent fielder, can play all OF positions, hitting .306 in 144 AB this year in AAA
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, you remember last year...(.198/.296/.370 in 162 AB with the Nats...adds up to a .666 OPS...coincidence? I think not), recent hamstring "tweak" (still played tonight), power numbers down this year (isolated slugging of .172 last year with the Nats, .132 this year in AAA)

Mike Daniel (AA, 23 years old, player page)
Pros: Can play all OF positions, hitting .315 in 149 AB in AA. According to NFA: good contact hitter, a little gap power, okay speed and great base-running instincts.
Cons: Not on 40-man roster, no experience above AA, not a whole lot of power, has 2 generic male first names (3 if you include his middle name, John).

Justin Maxwell (AA, 24 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, can play all OF positions, local (Sherwood High, UMD alum), tons of potential, proved last year he can hit ML pitching (.269/.296/.500 in 26 AB), patience is way way way up this year (31 BB/27 K as opposed to 50/122 in the minors last year), fast, sexy, etc.
Cons: Not hitting for average this year (.248 in 138 AB), hasn't started since May 17 (NFA suspects either injury or being held out for a call-up), historically old for his level (could lead to some statistical inflation).

Roger Bernadina (AA, 23 years old, player page)
Pros: On 40-man roster, can play all 3 OF positions, fast, hitting .321 in 129 at bats in AA.
Cons: Career minor league line of .255/.340/.370 uninspiring, 2007 line of .259/.338/.356 also uninspiring, little power.

The Verdict: First the disclaimer: the 40-man roster stands at 38 right now, so it shouldn't be a huge deal adding someone to it at this point. I suppose that could still theoretically work against Daniel, but Langerhans and Escobar have both passed waivers at some point, so unless they tear up the majors, they'll probably be able to slip through once again.

Here's how I rank them:
1) Maxwell-Assuming he's healthy and gets semi-regular at-bats. He's our best talent and he's on the 40-man. Why not?
2) Escobar-Assuming he's healthy. Good candidate to pump up value and deal at the deadline. Would have to add to the 40-man.
3) Langerhans-We know what we'll get out of him, so I'd prefer to get more answers from the others. If his hamstring leaves him less than 90%, a definite no. Would have to add to the 40-man.
4) Casto-We don't really need another 1B/3B/corner outfielder since we have Boone, Mackowiak, Pena to cover those. He does deserve another shot in the majors, though, and is still only 26.
5) Daniel-Why start his service time and add him to the 40-man now? He needs a full season (or at least from now till the beginning of August) in AA/AAA at the very least before he's ready to face ML pitching.
6) Bernadina-Looks too much like an Endy Chavez/Nook Logan clone. But he does look like a better fielder at this point. Still too early to start his service time, he needs more than 129 at bats of .321 average to annul his .259 average last year against AA/AAA pitching.

Ideally, I'd like the Nats to send Elijah Dukes down to AAA and call up Justin Maxwell and Alex Escobar. Dukes and Maxwell both have tons of potential, so I'd like to see them flip-flopped. Escobar can spell the new outfield of Pena-Maxwell-Milledge when needed.

UPDATE-5/23, 1:25 AM
Just noticed the Harrisburg Senators (AA) are playing in Connecticut. Might be difficult to get a guy to Washington in time if they don't announce it soon (or if it doesn't leak soon). I wouldn't count out the AA guys but I'd say it's about a 5-10% better chance an AAA guy gets the call now as opposed to before.