Roster building

Today is not August 31. Okay, that's a bit of a lie. It is August 31, but today really is September call-ups eve. Even though the Nats have gone on record to say that they aren't making any call-ups until AAA Syracuse finishes their season on September 7 (assuming the Chiefs don't make the playoffs), it's still way past the time to make predictions.

Here are my picks:

C Gustavo Molina

From what we've heard, the Nats are going to call-up a 3rd catcher. Problem is-the three catchers who could possibly be candidates are all pretty awful. Luke Montz, the only candidate on the 40-man roster, hasn't had a multi-hit game since June 20 in AA, without missing any large stretches of time. Jhonatan Solano showed a bit of promise with a .280 batting average in 95 AA plate appearances, but has struggled imensely in AAA, with a .196/.236/.262 triple slash there in 184 plate appearances. This leaves Gustavo Molina, who should never appear on any ML roster, let alone a potential third in the Nats. He hasn't exactly torn up AAA this year, hitting .208/.235/.313. And no, he's not related to Bengie, Jose or Yadier. But given his tiny advantage in terms of ML experience (and the fact that he's regarded as a decent defender by Brian from NFA), Molina gets my vote.

SS Ian Desmond

The past four years or so have been fairly tumultuous for the Nats' (well, actually the Expos') 3rd rounder from 2004. Ever since being compared to Derek Jeter by both former Nats GM Jim Bowden and assistant to the GM Jose Cardenal in Spring Training 2005, the performance hasn't matched the hype behind the young SS from Sarasota, FL. That is, until this year, where Desmond has hit a combined .326/.398/.484 between AA and AAA. With an arm good enough to be named the best of both the International League (AAA) and Eastern League (AA) by Baseball America, the tools are coming together. If he can cut down on his errors and hit even 75% as well as he has this year, he might never go back down to the minors.

OF Justin Maxwell

It's more of a necessity than a deserved call-up, but it's going to happen nonetheless, according to Nationals Journal. It's not that Maxwell is bad-he's already an excellent fielder and has almost identical career minor league numbers to Mike Cameron (Maxwell's .257/.351/.442 to Cameron's .258/.343/.424). He's simply not ready for the bigs, having been overpowered in AAA this year. The 30% strikeout rates need to stop for him to be considered for a promotion, but a lack of CF depth in the system will force the Nats to recall him tomorrow. Norris Hopper would have been a better option in my opinion, but Maxwell is a) the future and b) on the 40-man roster.

LHSP Ross Detwiler, RHSP Shairon Martis and RHSP Collin Balester

Detwiler, Martis and Balester go together because they are almost surely locks to be called up. Detwiler has pitched 22 less innings in 2009 than in 2008, with Martis pitching 3 more than 2008 and Balester 30 less than 2008, so all three have a fair amount of innings left to throw. (Side note-I suggest checking out NFA's September call-up post for the innings pitched breakdowns of all of the candidates.) Brian from NFA noted in the comments of the above link that Balester may be shut down due to poor performance rather than IP counts, which could open a door for Marco Estrada.

RHP Zach Segovia

Segovia has been solid in AA/AAA this year, with a combined 3.34 ERA in 67 and 1/3 innings and a much higher K/9 rate than at any other point in his minor league career (8.2 K/9 overall this year as opposed to a 5.8 K/9 career average and a previous career high over a full season of 6.7. Most importantly, he can eat innings, as many of the current Nats young starters will likely be shut down early. Out of all of the pitchers after Detwiler/Martis, I'd say Segovia is the closest to a lock due to his stamina and experience at higher levels.

RHP Clint Everts

Everts is pretty much the anti-Wilkie. As the 5th overall draft pick in a 2002 draft that saw Royals ace Zack Greinke go 6th overall, Brewers slugger Prince Fielder 7th and Phillies ace Cole Hamels 17th, it would be ideal to squeeze out at least a little bit of production. While Everts' days as a starting pitcher are long gone, he looks to be fairly good out of the bullpen, with strikeout rates trending up and walk rates trending down since being converted to a reliever during the 2007 season. While the Nats don't necessarily have to "save face" by promoting him, it would be nice to see them get at least a smidge of performance from that stud-laden draft.

RHP Josh Wilkie

A Disney story in the making, the undrafted Wilkie has been ridiculously good in his 4-year minor league career. With a career 2.91 ERA and consistently low FIP's (click the link to learn more on Fielding Independent Pitching), he has both the ideal actual performance and expected performance to earn him a spot on the Nats.

I'm admittedly not very high on LHRP Yunior Novoa, RHSP Marco Estrada or LHRP Jack Spradlin, all of whom have put up decent 2009 numbers. If any of the 3 get a call-up, it will be Estrada, as he is already on the 40-man roster.

Other dark horses include LHP Aaron Thompson (needs to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 Draft this offseason but probably too high in innings), LHP Horacio Ramirez (unlikely due to poor performance with Syracuse), 1B Daryle Ward (unlikely due to poor performance with Syracuse), OF Norris Hopper (possible, but unlikely due to the calling up of Maxwell), IF Seth Bynum (unlikely due to poor AAA performance in 2009, low BB rates and high K rates), IF/OF Kory Casto (unlikely due to lack of sustained power since 2007), 1B Brad Eldred (possibility, but due to the fact that he's an Adam Dunn all power-no glove clone at 1B, I doubt it).

Note-Molina, Segovia, Everts and Wilkie need to be added to the 40-man roster. The Nats are currently standing at 39/40 roster spots, but have up to 5 players who can be placed on the 60-day DL, as they are likely out for the season: RHP Ryan Mattheus, LHP Scott Olsen, C Jesus Flores, OF Austin Kearns and OF Nyjer Morgan. Off the top of my head, Flores has missed enough time retroactively that, if healthy enough, he could be placed on the 60-day DL now and be able to be activated at any point still.

The roster, it is a changin'

As you've probably seen already, the Nats have made a plethora of moves and announcements today:

Dmitri officially has been placed on the 40-man roster, taking Wily Mo Pena's spot, as he was put on irrevocable waivers. [Nationals Journal]

Both Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmermann will be parts of the ML rotation. Martis will start the year as #4 and Zimmermann will start the year in AAA and be called up when the #5 starter is needed.

Javier Valentin refused his assignment to AAA and became a free agent.

Jose Castillo and Corey Patterson were sent to AAA (thank God!!).

Collin Balester also was sent to AAA. [Nationals Journal]

What does this all mean? It means we are going in the right direction. We are going into Opening Day with the best pitchers we have in the rotation and the best position players at bat and in the field. Cutting deadweights like Wily Mo Pena is something Bowden was way too hesitant to do. Glad to see Rizzo's got the guts to do it.

Wednesday Afternoon Roundup

By now, we all know that G Cristobal Huet spurned the Caps' offer of 3 years at $5 mil per year for the Blackhawks' 4 years at $5.6 mil per year. The Caps then turned to Jose Theodore, most recently of the Colorado Avalanche. While I'm not buying the Caps' whole "he was the 2002 Hart/Vezina winner!!1!one!" campaign, he's a solid goalie signed to a short-term deal. Japers' Rink and The Red Skate both, as always, have good analysis up:

Bottom line: if you were of the belief that Cristobal Huet was the kind of goalie that could take a team all the way, you're probably inconsolable today. But for the rest of us, the reality is that provided that everything else comes together over the next few days/weeks/months, there's no reason to believe the Caps won't be perfectly fine in both the short- and long-term. And hey, at least they didn't sign Ray Emery, right?
-Japers' Rink

Théodore provides equivalent value at a more cap-friendly price.
For those upset that Huet isn’t between the pipes for the home team at Verizon this fall, justify your belief that it is more likely that Huet will carry his dominant play from March of last season into this coming season than it is likely that Théodore (12-4-1 with two shutouts, a 2.27 GAA, and a .917 SV% in his final 18 starts) will do, essentially, the same. They seem exceedingly comparable netminders, and are of similar age as well.
Career stats give a slight nod to Huet in the ratio numbers, but clearly Theodore has more NHL, and specifically playoff, experience.
-The Red Skate

So there are your key quotes from both blogs, and I find both absolutely agreeable. If Theodore is great, we him signed relatively cheap for that. If he's terrible, it's only 2 years. If he's decent (as expected), then we're fine. Cristobal Huet, contrary to popular belief, is NOT as good as he was for the Caps last year. He's a solid goaltender but at the same time he is no Martin Brodeur. I would have supported the 3 year $15 mil deal, but 4 years is simply too much to give a goalie with really only 1 year of great performance, especially when the Caps have to lock up Semin and Backstrom during the contract.

Also, where does this leave the Caps in cap-room? As you may or may not know, I posted some predictions of what the 6 guys the Caps were looking to re-sign would get:

Fedorov: range of $2 mil/1 year to $3 mil/1 year. We'll settle in the middle for $2.5 mil.
Fehr: range of $900k/1 year to $1.95 mil/2 years ($975k average). I'd bet on $925k.
Gordon: I'll just make one spot guess: $925k/1 year.
Green: range of $20 mil/5 years ($4 mil average) to $33 mil/6 years ($5.5 mil average). Because he's most likely to get a big offer, I'll go with the max at $5.5 mil. He could get offered $6 mil/year or more in FA, but I doubt the Caps match that, mainly because it would base more than 1/4 of their yearly salary in just 2 guys. Plus they would get draft pick compensation.
Huet: range of $10.5 mil/2 years ($5.25 mil average) to $24 mil/4 years ($6 mil average). I'll say he'll make $5.75 mil next year.
Laich: range of $1.75 mil/1 year to $5.5 mil/3 years ($1.83 mil average). $1.75 mil sounds like a nice round number for our figures.
Morrisonn: range of $3 mil/2 years ($1.5 mil average) to $5.25 mil/3 years ($1.75 mil average). We'll call it $1.6 mil next year.

The Caps have roughly $19 mil of cap room for these 6 guys, so when you take away Theodore's $4.5 mil and Green's $5.25 mil, they'll have $9.25 mil spread between the other 4. I'm optimistic that they'll be able to make it all fit, assuming Laich and Morrisonn stay under $2 mil per and Fedorov stays under $3 mil. Gordon and Fehr won't make more than $1 mil. If all of those assumptions come true, that's $9 mil or less, and the Caps will be fine.

Most of Nationals news right now revolves around Colin Balester and trade rumors. I'll talk about Balester in a second, but first about trade rumors. According to Chico Harlan's chat today, Lo Duca and Lopez are "at the top of the list" of guys to be dealt. MLBTradeRumors.com names the Marlins as a possible suitor for Lo Duca and we all know about the Orioles' recent "interest" in Fail-ipe. In the end, I bet Lo Duca gets DFA'ed after the trade deadline, maybe moved in a waiver deal to a team whose catcher unexpectedly goes down. Lopez I have a feeling will end the year in a different jersey, because the Nats aren't going to resign him and he's not going to net a draft pick. Might as well move him for SOMETHING, since his value is still somewhat-existant (since he's young-ish and has some "potential" left).

Now back to Balester-good performance last night (I missed a good Nats game, as usual). I'm impressed. We finally have a real prospect pitching (no offense to Clippard/Mock/O'Connor) and it feels good. I have to run now, so I'll spare you more of the same thing and say: let's re-evaluate him at the end of the year. Go Balester!

EDIT-4:23 pm
Virginia Tech WR Brandon Dillard is out for the year with a torn ACL. Dillard was going to compete for a starting job this year. His loss severely depletes an already depleted WR core that lost its top 4 recievers last year to graduation (Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, Justin Harper and Josh Hyman). Hopefully the Hokies will be able to rebound from this. Here's a decent season preview on the Hokies I came across yesterday on Sportspyder.com. Losing Dillard really just means that the Hokies will have to find a consistent reciever or two out of probably 5 or 6 candidates now rather than 6 or 7.

A bunch of Nats news

As many of you saw tonight (not including myself, as I didn't have power), Lastings Milledge went down with a groin injury trying to make a play on a line drive (that ended up an Alex Cintron triple). The Nats announced he was going to the 15-day DL and Harrisburg's Roger Bernadina would be his replacement. Tough break for L-Millz and his Center Field Thrillz, but that's really the Nats' luck as of late. (edit: Chico Harlan says about Milledge in Nationals Journal: "Headed to the DL; Lastings Milledge, who injured his right groin. He'll be out 2-4 weeks."), so not as bad as I thought. Wonder if 2-4 weeks will beocme 4-6 though, with our awesome training staff!

The only good news that comes out of it: Bernadina gets a shot. The 24-year-old has spent 7 years in the Nats system after being signed at 18 out of the Netherlands Antilles (aka Curacao, I believe). He's pulling a line of .325/.397/.475 in AA right now (with a career line of .292/.364/.414 in 636 at bats in AA and .258/.343/.375 overall) and is a good baserunner (career 77% base stealer, 75% in AA, 26/35 this year). He looks to me like a lefty version of Milledge, but with a little less power and a little better defense.

Good news: Austin Kearns is said to be back next week, which will (thank goodness) keep Pena/Harris/Lo Duca/Casto out of LF as much as possible (my dad keeps saying they're "showcasing" Lo Duca in LF to boost his trade value. It makes sense, as there are some really stupid GM's out there. Apparently versatility is in the eye of the beholder). Nationals.com says that Dukes will shift back to LF (even though I think they should stick him in CF, as he's more likely to be a full-time ML CF in the future than Roger Bernadina, who I think will end up as a Tom Goodwin-like player...#4 OF, #1 pinch runner, defensive replacement). I'm a little afraid Bernadina will end up like Brandon Watson, but I'll put a little more faith in him.

Great news: Collin Balester is going to make the start on Tuesday against the Marlins. The 22-year-old righty has a 9-3 record and a 4.00 ERA in AAA Columbus this year. Hopefully, he'll never see AAA again! It's good to see Balester and Bernadina finally get a chance (unfortunately at the expense of starters Shawn Hill and Milledge), but sometimes you have to lose someone for a while to find out who is really a contender from the minors rather than a pretender. The Nats have room on the 40-man (space was made when Nick Johnson was put on the 60-day DL), but no room on the 25-man roster. Top candidates to be sent down/outrighted: Pete Orr, Jesus Colome. The dark horse is obviously Fail-ipe, who is destined to be traded to the Dark Side tomorrow night or Monday.

Yesterday, the Dark Side Bird tripped Teddy in the Presidents Race. Tonight, Teddy beat the Dark Side Bird in an "unsanctioned race" (meaning the Nats can stretch out the misery of Teddy until they feel like giving him a win).