Inbox and Links

Here are my responses to the last inbox:

What do you think about Cristian Guzman? Do you think he is on the way out before Opening Day?
-- Jesse P., Arlington, Va.

Guzman is overpaid and undergood, but needed on the Nats. The system is still bare up the middle; just because Ian Desmond put up a miracle 2009 season doesn't mean he's a sure thing and neither is Adam Kennedy. Since nobody is going to give up anything for Guzman, we HAVE to keep him, simply because he's our best out of the worst-case scenarios. And personally, I don't think Desmond is 100% ready yet, either.

I still think it's funny how things change: 19 months ago 79% of voters on Nationals Journal "approved" of the Guzman 2 year/$16 mil extension. At the time, I said in the comments of my main post that "I still think it's a decent deal, just because we guarantee ourselves an okay shortstop." And looking back, I still think that was the right attitude; Ian Desmond was coming off of a .251/.318/.406 triple slash in 93 games in AA (not counting the 3 games he spent in the GCL). There was no indication that he would become a major league player by September 2010 let alone 2009.

I disagree with using Ian Desmond as a utility player. If he really is the Nationals' shortstop of the future, Desmond needs to play every day. The Nats are better off leaving him in the Minors and send him up when the time is right. What do you think?
-- Alex C., Montreal

I think Desmond is better off starting the year in AAA. He hit fairly well in 89 PA's at the end of the year while playing atrocious defense. The majors are not the place to learn plate discipline (BB% fell from 8.5% in AA and 9.8% in AAA to 5.8% in ML) or defense. This is more for his sake than ours; if he bombs in the majors, that will kill his confidence. Let him work out the kinks and come back up in May or June or whenever he's needed, but don't rush him just because our MI situation is crappy.

That all being said, wherever he plays, he has to play every day. If he's a utility player in the majors, that's fine with me, as long as he's playing at least 4 or 5 times a week somewhere. Anything less than that and he needs to be in AAA.

Do you see Jermaine Dye coming to the Nationals? He is a great defensive outfielder and a great power hitter.
-- Alan W., Herndon, Va.

Jermaine Dye's defense was so bad last year, he was worth -$1.2 million, even with a .250/.340/.453 triple slash and 27 homers! His UZR/150 has been -21.4 or worse for the last 4 seasons. Dye's career UZR/150 in RF is worse than Dunn's career UZR/150 in LF! If he can learn 1B, I wouldn't mind adding him for a righty bench bat and pinch hitter, but anyone who signs Jermaine Dye to start in the outfield (or really anywhere for that matter) is begging for the basement.

Do you see Livan Hernandez returning to the Nationals in 2010?
-- Ryan B., Fairfax Va.

Yes. He'll sign a minor league deal in the next 2 weeks.

Why is right-hander Shairon Martis never mentioned as a possible starter for the Nats this year?
-- Steve B., Washington

I'm honestly not a big fan of Martis. I've certainly been wrong about people before, but Martis was actually worse than his 5.25 ERA in the majors last year. He absolutely has to bring his walk total down as Ladson said, but also needs to bring his K/9 way above the 3.57 it was last year.

Has Adam Dunn been working this offseason on his fielding at first base? Any improvement there could be a huge boost to the infield. If the injury bug bites again, what's your opinion of the team's depth?
-- John B., Burke, Va.

God help us if he hasn't been working on it. Rizzo has added depth to the hitters: Kennedy, Bruntlett, Whitesell, Pudge, Duncan and Mench, but I wouldn't necessarily call it "good" depth, and it's still nowhere close to enough depth. If these guys are on the bench, that's okay. If they're trusted with a starting position at any point, we're in trouble.

Could you give me a projected starting lineup for 2010?
-- Juan F., Alexandria, Va.

Ladson's prediction:
1) CF Nyjer Morgan
2) SS Guzman
3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman
4) 1B Dunn
5) LF Josh Willingham
6) RF Dukes
7) C Ivan Rodriguez
8) 2B Adam Kennedy

Looks about right for now. I could see Kennedy batting second and Guz batting 8th, but this is probably the best guess. I don't think Flores or Desmond will start, at this point at least.

If the Nats sign Dunn to a multi-year deal, what does that mean for Chris Marrero's future with the club?
-- Jake B., Silver Spring, Md.

I haven't seen anywhere that Marrero is anything near the poor defender Dunn is like Ladson suggested in his response. Anyways, I say we cross this bridge when we get there; a lot can happen in a few years, as we've seen with Guzman above.

I see Willingham as a defensive liability, and I believe his bat is not stellar enough to tolerate his defense. If the Nationals want to have better defense, they should try to trade him.
-- Andrew, W., Alexandria, Va.

Willingham ended the year with a .863 OPS even with a .156/.248/.278 month of September. I'd say his bat is plenty good enough to counteract his weak defense.

On another note, I promised links, so here they are!

-Baseball-Intellect's work on the Nats: Overview, Top Prospects 1-5 and Top Prospects 6-15. If you're not a member, you still get detailed info on Strasburg (#1), Norris (#2), Marrero (#6) and Eury Perez (#7). Good stuff!

-NatsStats put up an interesting FanPost on Federal Baseball comparing Nats pitchers to other pitchers in terms of ERA and First Pitch Strike %.

Two days, two inboxes

This post will be better than the Redskins' game, I promise. On a side note-the parking lot staff at Fed Ex are morons. They led my friends and I about a half mile in the completely wrong direction to get to a Metro Station. That's all I have to say on that subject.

On to the inbox:

How much playing time do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get? I think it would be a waste if he gets only the amount of playing time Wil Nieves had last year. Pudge can still provide some serious offense besides his defensive skills.
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll get more than that just because Flores is so injury-prone. I have a feeling that Flores' injury might be worse than we think...if that's the case, Nieves might even get as much time this year as he did last year.

How much interest are the Nationals showing in Aroldis Chapman? It looks like his upside could be as high as Stephen Strasburg's and, if signed, would give the club an outstanding top of the rotation for years to come.
--- Jeff O., Victoria, Texas

I'm not expecting them to make a big run for them, and I can't really blame them. Chapman has a lot of talent, but he is nowhere near the polished prospect Strasburg is. A team that doesn't spend a lot of money throwing $15 mil at a guy who isn't a sure thing doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Would Felipe Lopez be a good fit at second base for the Nats?
-- Sean B., Washington

Absolutely not. What a friggin' bum. Whoever signs him is going to be disappointed-his BABIP in 2009 was almost 30 points higher than it had ever been before. He'll come back down to earth and make somebody else's fans miserable in 2010.

What happened to all the John Smoltz buzz? It seems like ages ago that we've heard anything about the Nats trying to acquire a starting pitcher. If you were in Rizzo's shoes, which free-agent pitchers would you sign?
-- Scott W., Onley, Va.

I agree with Ladson that Smoltz and the Nats have mutual interest, but more in terms of a each side having a backup date to prom. I think the Nats might chase Jon Garland but end up with Doug Davis. I'm always wary of both for some reason (I guess I just expect the bottom to fall out sometime soon), but if we could get either on a one-year deal in the $5-7 mil range, I wouldn't be opposed to it.

What are the Nationals' options if Cristian Guzman can`t play second base?
-- Ryan L., Dunn, N.C.

Gonzalez and Harris are the likeliest options, but a dark horse could be Mike Morse. He played 19 games at 2B for Tacoma in 2009. Reasonable FA options include Orlando Hudson, Mark Derosa, Kelly Johnson and even Ronnie Belliard.

What are the chances of bringing Vladimir Guerrero back into the organization?
-- Kelvin A., Rockville, Md.

None unless they trade Willingham or Dunn. Guerrero is not a good fit for an NL team anyways-he only played 16 innings in the field in 2009.

What's the status of Chris Marrero? Can we expect him in the big leagues anytime soon?
-- Colin W., Germantown, Md.

To be honest, I have no clue. Marrero is at the age where he can either catapult through the system and end up in DC in September (fairly likely) or bottom out completely and be done with baseball (highly unlikely). He didn't look very good in 84 PA's at Harrisburg, but that's a very small sample size. We'll know for sure when the ASG rolls around whether or not he can hack it in AA.

Inbox Time

This version of the mailbag is a week late, but your mail this week will probably be just as late, so we'll call it even.

Who do you think will be the Nationals' Opening Day shortstop?
-- Patrick S., Chantilly, Va.

Ian Desmond. I honestly don't think the Nats will make a run at an ML-worthy 2B or SS, leaving them with Desmond at SS and Guzman at 2B.

It seems odd that the Nationals would offer arbitration to right-hander Jason Bergmann. Likeable as he is, he's an average pitcher at best.
-- Mike H., Washington

Average at best, yes, but what else describes the Nats bullpen? I'm surprised they didn't non-tender him and try to bring him back at a cheaper salary, but to be honest, it's not a truly cost-prohibitive decision.

What do you think the rotation and bullpen will look like on Opening Day next year? I expect Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen not to be on the roster until later in 2010.
-- Keith C., Greenbelt, Md.

Rotation: Lannan, Detwiler, Olsen, Garland, Marquis

Bullpen: Bergmann, Balester, Burnett, Clippard, Mock and Bruney as the Closer.

Strasburg and Storen will not be in the Majors until at least a month in, I bet.

If the Nationals are unable to land a "Big Time" starter this offseason, do you see any potential trade packages that could land Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay?
-- Michael L., Williamsburg Va.

Well, I obviously missed the boat on this one, but such a deal would cost some sort of a combination of Norris, Storen, Desmond and Marrero (plus maybe some pitchers like Detwiler and Mock), and I don't think the Nats could (or would even want to) match the Phillies' offer.

Will Clippard get a shot in the rotation? He's deadly against left-handed hitters. Just ask Bobby Cox, who would like to have him.
-- Brandon D., Muncie, Ind.

Deadly against lefties, yes, but he still had a .207 BABIP last year. Expect plenty of regression, and further bullpen relegation.

Not too long, it was reported that the Nationals were shopping Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn because they are defensive liabilities. Why? There bats are crucial parts of the lineup, and with Nyjer Morgan, Willie Harris, Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell in the mix, the defense is solid.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

The problem with the defensive whizzes is that only Morgan and Zimmerman are actually starters. The team, in my opinion, has 2 plus fielders in Morgan and Zimmerman, 2 minus fielders in Willingham and Dunn, 2 average fielders in Rodriguez/Flores and Dukes and 2 average fielders with a bigger potential to fall into the lower category than the higher in Desmond and Guzman.

I still like the potential of left-hander Matt Chico. Based on his progress in rehab, what do you think his chances are of being with the team in 2010?
-- Todd B., Smithsburg, Md.

I'm admittedly not a big fan about Chico. He had a below average, yet still lucky, year in 2007. I don't think he'll be back for good, unless he comes back with control and durability.

Another Intelligence-Insulting Inbox

I'm a little late to the party this week, but here is your Inbox!

What are the chances of Cristian Guzman being traded this offseason?
-- Ross B., Washington

I was surprised when they didn't trade him at the deadline. The emergence of Ian Desmond makes it likely that they will try to move him, but will anyone actually want to take on that salary?

If you were in general manager Mike Rizzo's shoes, what you would do to make the Nationals better?

-- Ron J., Washington

"I would trade Dunn, Guzman or Josh Willingham to get more pitching and speed. You may have to trade two of the three to get what you want. Nyjer Morgan's absence has proven that they are too slow on the bases."-Ladson

Bill, you're wrong. You need to trade all 3 of them, plus Slothburg (0 career stolen bases) and Zimmerman (only 2 stolen bases this year).

In all seriousness, the Nats need to add 2 starting pitchers, 3 relief pitchers (one being a closer), a catcher and a second baseman to be competitive. A little too long of a list for me to predict a huge improvement next year.

You said that next year's rotation is still unknown except for John Lannan. What about Stephen Strasburg?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Ummm...really? He hasn't thrown a single pitch in the Nationals organization. Tony Gwynn said he was not ready for the big leagues. He might not be worse than what we've got, but we're not exactly in a "win now" mode.

Right-hander Shairon Martis has more wins in a short period of time than all the other Nationals' starters. He should have been called up to the big leagues this month.
-- Stan C., New York

Have you even been to Nationals.com in the last month? There was an article about Martis being shut down and it was mentioned in the last Inbox. And unfortunately, you're not the only person in the world who uses wins as the primary rating for pitchers. Ugh.

I really liked the competitive spirit of Jamey Carroll when he played with the Nationals. Pete Orr reminds me of Jamey in that way. What do you think?
-- Jim T., Beaufort, S.C.

Competitive spirit, yes. Talent, no. Pete Orr is miles away from Jamey Carroll talent-wise, and that's saying something.

I've heard lots of talk about the Nats going after second baseman Orlando Hudson. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Hudson in a Nationals uniform. But what do you think the chances are they will really signing him?
-- Matt H., Tallahassee, Fla.

5%. The Nats may throw a lot of money at him, but so are 29 other teams.

2010 Roster Building-Shortstops

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Shortstop. Follow along with the series here.

SHORTSTOPS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Ian Desmond and Cristian Guzman

Other possibilities in the organization: Alberto Gonzalez

From the "sure thing in the system," third base to the polar opposite, shortstop, we go. Essentially, I expect the Nats to push Desmond into the starting role in September to see how he fares. If he can handle ML pitching, they'll pencil him in as the starting SS going into 2010. If he can't, they'll probably panic, as there really isn't much of a plan B. Guzman has no range anymore (and is rumored to be moving to 2B next year anyways), Gonzalez has been below average both offensively and defensively and the free agent market is full of has-beens, never-weres and Marco Scutaro, who will never play up to his 2009 season again. Close your eyes and say a little prayer, Nats fans, as Ian Desmond is the best and most realistic option they have.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Danny Espinosa

Often overshadowed by guys like Derek Norris and Chris Marrero, the Nats do have a shortstop in the system who could be a real stud. Danny Espinosa didn't have a "breakout" year in terms of conventional judgment (.261/.371/.448, 17 HR, 88 R, 68 RBI), but he did progress in exactly the way the Nats need him to: solidly and quickly. I don't think the Nats will give Espinosa a huge chance in Spring Training, but if he starts in Harrisburg and takes off, he could surpass Ian Desmond very quickly. He plays very solid defense, packs a little pop and takes walks at a pretty high 13.3% clip. His one major fault-strikeouts. They're not to a Justin Maxwell, Michael Burgess or Adam Dunn level of scariness, but it's really not ideal to have a whole lot of guys striking out once in every four plate appearances. Still, I think Espinosa could explode through the system and be a steady-gloved SS in Washington from 2011 onward.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Adam Everett, Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene

None of these guys really excite me. Crosby and Greene seem to do the same thing as Mike Morse, but are paid more to do so. For some reason, I've soured on Everett lately, but he does still have an excellent glove (albeit an awful bat).

2009 production by Nats shortstops to date: .281/.303/.389, 7 HR, 76 R, 61 RBI

2010 projection: It all depends on which direction the Nats go. If they do what I expect and stick Ian Desmond at SS for better or for worse, expect similar offensive production, a lot more balls fielded, but a lot more throwing errors.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

2010 Roster Building-Third Basemen

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Third Base. Follow along with the series here.

THIRD BASEMEN

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Morse and Willie Harris

Other possibilities in the organization: Leonard Davis and Kory Casto

Third base is the one sure thing in the system. Ryan Zimmerman, when healthy, is (and will be) the starting third baseman, period. The competition here is for the backup position. I believe the Nats will carry 2 "backups" in Morse and Harris. Morse has the ability to play the corners in the infield and outfield so I bet he'll stick around and Harris has traditionally been the go-to-guy when Zimmerman gets a day off. Like I said yesterday, Davis hasn't hit well enough at AAA to make me think he can make the jump to the Majors and Casto lost his power and plate discipline in AAA this year.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Cristian Guzman

If Zimmerman gets injured for an extended period of time, I could see the Nats shifting Guzman to 3rd, starting Desmond at SS and playing Gonzalez and Harris at 2B in the meantime. Besides that, I don't see anybody new making a push to the backup 3B spot. Joel Guzman is a slight possibility, but I bet he'll depart as a minor league FA after the year.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Chone Figgins and Jamey Carroll.

There really aren't many backup-types in the free agent market, so I could only really see the Nats going out of the organization to pick up a backup if it were a utility player like Figgins or Carroll.

2009 production by Nats third basemen to date: .297/.368/.517, 27 HR, 97 R, 90 RBI

2010 projection: I still think we haven't seen the best to come from Zimmerman, but for now, let's be conservative and say the 2010 3B production is 10% worse than this year's. That's still 24 HR, 87 R and 80 RBI through September 2...pretty darn good.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Sunday Inbox

The inbox is back and better than ever!

Of all the trades that were made so far this season, do you think that acquiring Nyjer Morgan was one of the best ones?
-- Bill D., Cromwell, Conn.

Out of all of the trades this year, it has helped the team the most in the short-term, but as FJB noted on Friday, it was a trade that was made for now rather than later.

Any chance the Nats will consider Adam Dunn as part of the long-term solution at first base?
-- Travis M., Alexandria, Va.

Consider? Yes. Seriously consider? I doubt it. I think that if Willingham plays 1B in Spring Training, he'll learn it well enough to be at least league average, which would be a huge upgrade over Adam Dunn at 1B.

Do you think Mike MacDougal and Ronnie Belliard will be back? At the very least, MacDougal could bridge the gap between Drew Storen, and every team needs a versatile pro like Belliard.
-- Dave F., Seaford, Del.

Gut guess: MacDougal-yes and Belliard-no. As Ladson said, Belliard is a big waiver trade candidate over the next month or so. I expect him to go (and will be surprised if he doesn't). MacDougal is interesting becuase he's still under team control for 2 more years. They'll keep him around and try to trade him next year at the deadline I bet.

What are the chances that we see Storen in a Washington uniform this September?
-- Xavier N., Houston

I doubt it. There's no reason to rush him, start his service time, spend a 40-man spot, etc. No need making the Ross Detwiler mistake twice, even though it wasn't really a big deal.

Recent trade rumors about Cristian Guzman and other players have me wondering: When do the Nats trade for some bats? I understand the need for solid pitching, but there were stretches of the season in which the offense was totally dormant.

-- Luke H., Prince Frederick, Md.

I don't see where an upgrade is sorely needed. Dukes, Dunn, Guzman, Morgan, Willingham and Zimmerman are all league-average or better with the bat and Jesus Flores will be solid next year behind the dish. I'm happy with those 7's bats and an all-glove, no-hit 2B in my lineup any day.

Guzman has lost a step defensively. Any chance the Nationals can move Guzman to second base next year and sign a shortstop?
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

This idea has been shut down too many times for me to believe it's possible, but I don't see what the risk of trying something like this in Spring Training for a couple of games is.

Inbox, other stuff

Before I start with the inbox, check out the Facebook group "I <3>." Coveroo has agreed to give one lucky winner who guesses Strasburg's SB closest without going over a free Nats Coveroo.

Now, for the Inbox:

Johnson was a great player and a face of the franchise, but does Aaron Thompson have a chance to make as much of an impact as Johnson?
-- David W., Potomac, Md.

It depends on what you define "as much of an impact" as. I'm pretty sure Thompson will be worth more to the Nats over the next year years than two months of NJ would have been, but at this point he's really just another pitching prospect to stockpile. My guess is he'll end up as a #4/5 starter but the same was definitely said about John Lannan a few years back!

Craig Stammen continues to struggle. They should put Tyler Clippard in the rotation and move Stammen to the bullpen. What are your thoughts?
-- Joshua, Puerto Rico

I think at this point there's no point to switch them. Clippard (admittedly in a small sample size) has only been effective against batters the first time through the lineup. And besides that, after converting him to a reliever, I don't see them reversing it anytime soon. And while Stammen has gotten hit fairly hard in his last 2 outings, I'm not willing to give up on him yet.

What options do the Nats currently have at first base now that Johnson is gone?
-- Mike B., Washington, D.C.

Over the longrun, I think it will be Willingham. He's got the athletic ability to play there. It won't be pretty at first, but after a month or so I'm sure he'll look better than Dunn/Belliard. Once September rolls around, you might see Kory Casto, Mike Morse, Joel Guzman or Jorge Padilla there, depending on how the 40-man roster looks.

How does a player fail a physical for the Nationals and become an All-Star for the Dodgers? I'm talking about Hudson.
-- Peter R., Vancouver, BC Canada

He. Was. Not. Healthy. Enough. To. Give. A. Contract. To. Not sure how this is so hard for people to understand. It is never a good idea to sign someone who fails a physical. Get over yourself and hope they can sign him this offseason.

It has been stated a few times that the Nats will be looking for a shortstop in the offseason, and that Cristian Guzman's defense has become suspect. Were the Nats shopping Guzman before the Trade Deadline?
-- Frank H., Washington, D.C.

I hope so.

Some other links:

Jon Heyman had a few Nats-related snippets today. Don't mistake me for Heyman fan, because I'm surely not...just passing info along.

1-Dunn is likely to clear waivers, Villone might, Willingham won't.

2-Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and Dodgers GM Ned Colletti both have expiring contracts and could be targets for the Nats' GM job in the offseason. Other potential targets could include former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn, Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings and Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer. Heyman notes that Hunsicker and Hahn aren't locks to accept a job if it is offered.

Daniel Cabrera signed with the Diamondbacks and Corey Patterson signed with the Brewers. Pity their fans.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

I leave for 3 hours...

And the Nats go and trade their closer and sign their shortstop to an extension.

First, we'll discuss the Rauch deal:
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com figured Bowden would ask for more than just IF Emilio Bonifacio for Rauch.
MLB Fleece Factor thinks it is a pretty good deal for both teams.
National Fanboy Looser thanks Rauch for a job well done and asks if it's a good deal or not.
Fire Jim Bowden says "at first blush this is the kind of deal we should be doing."
We've Got Heart also figured the Nats would get more prospects for Rauch.
Bleacher Banter's intitial reaction is positive.

Something interesting I wanted to pass along (from Nationals Journal commenter "e"):

I'm going to try and be optimistic about this. I'm not thinking "another Nook Logan." I'm going to think, "another Jose Reyes."

Bonifacio's minor league stats:

6 seasons; 648 games; 2543 AB's
.283/.339/.360
12 HR; 216 RBI
209 BB; 528 K
226 SB; 65 CS (78%)

Jose Reyes' minor league stats:

4 seasons; 343 games; 1303 AB's
.285/.338/.423
13 HR; 135 RBI
101 BB; 217 K
129 SB; 44 CS (75%)

Sure, the strikeouts are a concern, but he has cut down on them some this season.

Reyes didn't start hitting homers until his second full season with the Mets.

My first reaction is that we got a decent player in a position of need. I think we could have gotten more for Rauch (perhaps another low-level prospect), but if this was Rauch's market, I'm happy. I heard rumors of Reid Brignac for Rauch, which would have made me happier, but this is fine. I'd also like to point out that the trade is with Arizona, which means Bonifacio is a Rizzo boy. I like Rizzo's guys.

I'm looking for Joel Hanrahan to become the new closer rather than Saul Rivera. Hanrahan's numbers are good enough for the role (although Rivera's are a bit better), but Hanrahan seems like a better option for the long-term (Hanrahan is 26, Rivera is 30). I'd rather see him learn into the role now (since he's got electric stuff) when we don't have many legitimate options in the back of the pen. (side note-it's amazing that this is the first time I've ever tagged Saul Rivera in an entry. He's that non-descript, I guess). Ryan Wagner is probably going to replace Rauch on the 25-man roster.

Now to Guzman-Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times says the deal is $8 mil per year for 2 years. That seems a bit steep, considering he did basically nothing in years 1-3 of his current contract, but it does seem he has turned his career around for the most part. At this point, I don't think the price even matters, since we already know the Lerners aren't going to spend any money anyways.

And the current polls on Nationals Journal indicate that there is widespread approval (82% at this time) of Guzman's signing, but mild skepticism (58% approval) concerning the Rauch trade.

Friday afternoon roundup

A decent bit of Nats rumors today.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via MLBTradeRumors.com) speculated today that both New York teams should have interest in Austin Kearns. The Mets have two corner outfielders on the DL (Church with post-concussion stuff, Alou out for the year now) and are starting Inning-Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis, who both could be considered the epitome of short-term solutions. The Yankees have Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon on the DL. There is apparently no timetable for Matsui's return, but no matter when the two of them get back, Sherman doubts the Yankees' ability to hit lefties (something Kearns does well). This isn't really a rumor, more of a speculation of sorts. I don't see Bowden trading Kearns unless he gets a decent bit in return, so it's really a win-win for us. We either get to see Kearns back in DC next year (and, as I hope you know by now, I'm a big Kearns fan) or we get a decent bounty of prospects (hopefully ones that can hit) in exchange for him.

Also, MLBTradeRumors.com reported that the Cardinals were scouting the Nats recently. The original article came from MLB.com, where the author, Jim Molony, suggests the likely players scouted were Odalis Perez or Tim Redding, "both available inexpensive options who have been pitching well lately." Tim Dierkes of MLBTR also speculated that the Cardinals could be looking to upgrade at SS by aquiring Cristian Guzman. Howabout Perez and Guzman for Aaron Miles and 2 or 3 B prospects?

Lastly, the Caps resigned defensive forward Boyd Gordon to a 1 year deal at $725k. The general consensus is that it was a good signing. I haven't seen anyone who says otherwise. Gordon is a good checking line/4th line guy who can play both the wing and center. He can shut down opposing players, but he doesn't score many points. Japers' Rink had a great write-up on his value to the team this morning.

One random note: Check out the "Answer Man" series of interviews on "Big League Stew," a Yahoo! Sports blog run by David Brown. Some of the stuff is pretty funny, and very interesting. I spent a good hour of my Friday morning (from 1 pm to 2 pm) reading the interviews. Some of my favorites were Huston Street, Kerry Wood and Bert Blyleven. Even Joba Chamberlain is pretty funny. Just skip the Derek Jeter one-he's about as exciting as a grey tube sock.

EDIT (5:15 PM): Roger Bernadina was sent down today. Ryan Langerhans was called up. Why waste a spot on a guy we know can't hit? Give Escobar or Daniel a chance. Another poor move on management's part.

48 Hours

It's been about 48 hours since my last post, so I'll give you a recap of what's new:




See that blank space? It represents what has happened since Saturday evening. The Nats still suck, as they lost for the 5th straight game (including being swept in 4 games against Cincinnati). The Hokies haven't made any news lately (thank goodness) and the Caps are in that awkward 2 week stretch between Laich and Morrisonn accepting arbitration and the actual process. I could talk to you about the Caps' rookie camp (or developmental camp, whatever it's called) but Japers' Rink is really your source there.

So what is there to talk about?
C.C Sabathia was traded to the Brew Crew. My contending team, the Cubs, should be a little worried. Not too worried, as Sabathia will only pitch in 15 (regular season) games for the rest of the season. At the moment, Sabathia replaces Jeff Suppan, who was placed on the 15-day DL yesterday. Suppan's injury, called "persistant irritation" by MLB.com, is likely only going to keep him out for 1 or 2 starts. Over such a small sample size, it's hard to say whether or not Sabathia would have a large impact. I'll overestimate and say he'll be responsible for 1 more win over those 2 games. After that, I'm guessing Dave Bush is the odd man out (I'll double check with my roommate, a Brewers and Packers fan that I would feel sorry for...but he once liked New Found Glory, which negates my benefit of the doubt...check out his analysis of the C.C. move if you get a chance). Bush is 4-8...so he loses 2 of every 3 decisions. Even if C.C. wins 2 of every 3 decisions for the rest of the year, he's a 5-6 win improvement. And that's the best case scenario (although somebody might want to add in his value as a hitter as well). The thing is: the Brewers have 66 fewer runs scored than the Cubs. The addition of Sabathia might replace the 26 runs allowed disadvantage they have, but the Cubs are still a superior team from top-to-bottom. Especially when Alfonso Soriano returns from injury.

And I guess for your Nats fix, here are my answers to the mailbag:
Is shortstop Cristian Guzman going to be dealt at the July 31 Trade Deadline?
-- Will S., Reston, Va.

Yes. The Nats were supposed to have signed him by now. Now I'd say there's about a 50/50 chance he stays still, but if he's not signed 10 days after he was supposedly "very close to signing", I bet Guzman called JimBo's girlfriend "guapo" and JimBo misinterpreted it (mainly thanks to "El Guapo" who does not translate to "the beautiful one") and did something to offend him, like saying this: Su madre es un puerco gordo. I think that this scenario could potentially happen: Guzman traded somewhere as a rental (LA?) and resigns in the offseason. He would be a Type B (because of playing time) so he wouldn't cost us a pick like he did the first time around, despite playing better.

Do you take back your assessment of the trade that sent Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner from the Reds to the Nationals on July 13, 2006. You thought it was a steal for Washington?
-- Justin, C., Atlanta, Ga.

It WAS a steal for the Nats. The Nats traded two middle relievers, a crappy old shortstop, an unhappy infielder (sorry, can't find the link on Harris) and a so-so prospect (at the time) for an up-and-coming outfielder, a 26 year old all-star shortstop and an interesting reliever. The trade was incredibly lopsided in the Nats favor. 99% of the time this trade is made, the Nats make out like bandits. But for some reason, Felipe and Kearns left their bats in Cincy and the Nats only come out with two average players in return for their crap.

This is only semi-related, but in my search for stuff on that trade came up with this link, where the original rumor consisted of Kearns and Brandon Phillips to the Nats. Oh, how nice would that have been?

Knowing that Bowden likes Reds outfielder/first baseman Adam Dunn, what are the chances that Dunn could be in a Nationals uniform?
-- Joe B., New York, N.Y.

In a trade: 10% chance. As an FA after the season: 50% chance. Even with Dukes, Milledge, Kearns, Johnson and Da Meat Hook taking up all of the positions Dunn can play, he will be a National next year if Bowden is still GM (which is the 50% chance).

Don't you think this team needs some talent on the Major League level to generate interest. You can't possibly be forgetting the reason that they are in Washington in the first place, can you?
-- Jon A., Stony Brook, N.Y.

What's the point? The season's over. The Nats only need to go 7-65 for the rest of the year to end up with more wins than the (and that would require almost twice as bad of a pace as July's 1 win in 6 games). All potential interest is gone. The exciting youngsters are basically all on the DL (Zimmerman, Milledge, Dukes) and everyone who planned on seeing Nationals Park has seen it by now. Suck it up, let the kids play and grab San Diego State ace Stephen Strasburg #1 overall next year.

Will Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young be traded before the Trade Deadline
-- Rob A., Washington D.C.

I'm going to say one of them gets traded. Both are hitting fairly well at the moment. Belliard is signed relatively cheap (Young really isn't). If Belliard is traded, it means either Pete Orr or Ray Olmedo or somebody equally bad as a replacement. I say Young goes and Bill Rhinehart is the starting 1B in September.

Now that Nick Johnson is out for the reminder of the season, what will be the approach with him for next season? Will he stay here in Washington?
-- Daniel O, Centreville, Va.

Just as I do every year, I assume he'll be out for the season and am surprised (sometimes even pleasantly surprised) for every single at bat he takes. Cherish those at bats, kids. You might not see many more out of Porcelain Man.

I am mostly frustrated that the team lacks basic fundamentals -- not moving the runner over to second or third with no outs, baserunning blunders, throwing to the wrong base or swinging at the first pitch after the pitcher throws four straight balls to the previous batter. What are your thoughts?
-- Tim R., Auburn, N.Y.

When in Rome, do as the Romans do. When you play for a team almost 20 games under .500 before the ASG, who is going to blame you (and for that matter, replace you) for not hustling, sucking at bunting or overthrowing the cutoff man? I'm pretty sure they're not going so far to start signing bloggers.

But for all the people clamoring, "Let the Kids Play!!," you're ignoring the fact that many of them are skipping fundamental training. It's a lot different learning to bunt against 75 mph fastballs in HS and 95 mph fastballs in the majors. John Lannan spent very little time in the high minors, where pitchers adjust to higher pitch speeds. As the linked article above says, Bergmann was predominantly a reliever in the minors, so he didn't hit at all. Bernadina and Dukes do miss their cutoff men, but it's because they're trying their absolute hardest to nab baserunners. I agree, the fundamentals need to be in place when the Nats are ready to compete. But for now, just sit back and let this ragtag group play as hard as they want to. I have a feeling "don't throw the ball home in that situation" could translate "don't try and throw out advancing runners" in the minds of youngsters like Bernadina. The funadmentals need work, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't make a difference anymore this year.

A couple quick notes

According to FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal (via MLBTradeRumors.com), 2 good things have decent chances of happening:

-Dumping Fail-ipe Lopez on the Orioles (for a "marginal prospect")
-Resigning Guzman to a 2-year deal

Trading Lopez to the Orioles would make me a happy man. I'd love to see "O's Exec" who trolls around the Nationals Journal comments stuck with the awful infielder.


Also, Dmitri misses Fick and says the team would be better off with him. I think he'd be a good coach, whenever he retires.

Morning link

Nats offer Guzman a 2 year extension:
http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080625&content_id=3002131&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was

April and May Awards

I'm going to retroactively name Nationals' team awards for the months of April and May and then name them for every month for the rest of the year.

APRIL AWARDS
Cy Young Award
With a 2.64 ERA in his 5 starts, John Lannan takes the cake here. Lannan went 2-2 over those 5 starts and allowed a .239 batting average against. He had quality starts in 4 of his 5 games. The runner up is Tim Redding, who went 3-2 over the month with a 3.55 ERA in 6 starts.

Rolaids Relief Award
Sadly, I have to give this to Luis Ayala, as he is one of the two relievers (who threw more than like 4 innings) to have an ERA under 4. When your best reliever has an ERA of 3, it obviously was a rough month. Ayala's peripherals were actually pretty awful (8 K/7 BB over 15 IP, .268 batting average against), so it wasn't too difficult to imagine his implosion of late. The Tums Relief Award (aka the runner up) goes to Jon Rauch. While Colome and Hanrahan had better ERA's (3.68 and 4.30, respecitvely, to Rauch's 4.38), Rauch had a better WHIP (1.38 to both Colome and Hanrahan's 1.64) and a better K/BB ratio (11 K/2 BB to Colome's 17/12 and Hanrahan's 19/11).

Hank Aaron Award
It's gotta be Cristian Guzman. It's sad that over a month's time, the best hitter on your team hit .294/.322/.450. Guz led the team in hits with 32 (6 more than the next best, Zimmerman) and triples (2), was second to Lastings Milledge in doubles (8 to 7) and was tied for second on the team in HR (2), behind Nick Johnson's sadly pace setting 4. He led the team in runs (13) and was 4th in RBI (8). Nick Johnson gets the runner up, because he had a higher OPS. Too bad Johnson only had a .218 batting average.

Rookie of the Year
Lannan takes the cake again. No others to consider.

Gold Glove
Nick Johnson gets the win. Month-by-month fielding stats are impossible to find, but April is the month he played in most and he has a 1.000 fld% on the year. He saved a ton (thank you BRN for permanently removing the word "numerous" from my vocabulary) of errant throws from Flop, Zimmerman and Guz as well. No runner up, because it's impossible to find April fielding stats.

Most Valuable Player
I'll give it to Nick Johnson becuase he got the runner up for the Hank Aaron and won the Gold Glove. The runner up goes to Cristian Guzman.

Least Valuable Player
It's a tossup between Jason Bergmann (11.68 ERA in 12 and 1/3 innings pitched) and Austin Kearns (.161/.278/.247 in 93 AB's). We'll give it to Kearns because he had a more sustained period of suckiness.

MAY AWARDS
Cy Young Award
Jon Rauch and Jason Bergmann compete for this award for May, as Rauch was spectacular (0.63 ERA in 14 and 1/3 innings, 7/7 saves), and Bergmann rebounded from his runner up in May's LVP award with a 1.30 ERA in 4 starts. Since Rauch's success was over a longer period of time (Bergmann was in the minors for part of the month), We'll give Rauch the win and Bergmann the runner up.

Rolaids Relief Award
Rauch runs away with it, with Joel Hanrahan getting the runner up, with a 2.66 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 and 2/3 innings pitched.

Hank Aaron Award
It's down to Ryan Zimmerman and Cristian Guzman. I'll give it to Guzman again because his numbers have less holes in them. Zim did hit .289/.319/.511, while Guzman hit .316/.339/.487. Zim's K/BB ratio was pretty bad (15 K to 3 BB) whereas Guzman's was even (4 K to 4 BB).

Rookie of the Year
Goes to John Lannan again by default, although Kory Casto gets the runner up.
Gold Glove
It has to go to Elijah Dukes. He has only 1 error for the year, and he's been very impressive in RF over the last month or so. Jesus Flores gets the runner up.

Most Valuable Player
Has to be Guzman. He hit well and fielded well enough. Runner up goes to Zimmerman again. Jesus Flores would be in the running if he had more at bats.

Least Valuable Player
Give it to Luis Ayala (6.19 ERA in 16 innings), Jesus Colome (10.13 ERA in 8 innings) AND Felipe Lopez (.234/.297/.318)! YUCK!

Thursday's Wins and Losses

There were multiple wins and losses on Thursday, including (but not exclusively) the games in the doubleheader. The Nats earned a split with the Cards, losing in the afternoon but winning in the nightcap.

The Nats lost 6-1 in the first game to the strangely effective Todd Wellemeyer. John Lannan was okay, pitching 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits, but with 4 walks and 0 strikeouts. Not a good trend to start, Johnny. Flores got hit by pitch in the hand but says he's okay (and finished the game). He didn't play or pinch hit in game 2, but he was going to get the night off anyways. Strange that if both catchers were going to catch one game, they didn't let Lannan throw to his personal catcher, Nieves. But I'm sure there's an explanation somewhere. We left 11 men on base, which is pretty awful. And reading the following should make you want to punch infants and elephants alike: Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Casto; Harris; Milledge; Langerhans. 4 guys couldn't bring a runner on second or third home with 2 outs. Casto redeemed himself in game 2, but Harris, Milledge and K-angerhans are in my doghouse. I'm actually convinced game 1 never actually happened (despite watching it). There were apparently less than 1000 witnesses. Time to call Vinny Castilla and see if he's got any cousins that can erase the game from the books if you know what I mean.

Bang! Zoom! went the fireworks following Elijah Dukes' walk-off monster mash (links to the monster mash, not the actual homer...sorry, I'm childish like that) in the bottom of the 10th. The weary Washington faithful witnessed Redding give up 6 runs (including a 3 run shot to a relief pitcher. Not a homer, it was a SHOT!) to keep St. Louis in the game, Rauch blow a save and Sanches give up a solo shot in the top of the 10th to give the Cards the lead. But then Elijah Dukes (who had a killer game. Hmmm...maybe 'killer' wasn't the best choice of words) hit a 2-run walk-off bomb to dead center (again, 'dead' isn't the best word). I've been pretty impressed with Elijah lately, both in the field and at the plate. Over the last 11 games, Elijah is 11/32 (a .344 batting average) with 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 SB, 8 R, 5 RBI and a 8/7 BB/K ratio. Not bad, dude. Also wanted to point out great nights by Guzman (4/6, 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B), Boone (3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, 1 SF) and Casto (3/4, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB). GUZMANIA!!!! returns, as Guzman's batting average went from .299 to .310. A 6/11 doubleheader does that for you, I guess.

I'm still scared by this: Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Nieves 2; Lopez; Milledge; Redding; Harris 2. Sure...Boone, Casto, Guzman and Dukes all delivered somewhere in the game with 2-out RBI's (and Casto had 2), but we can't continue the trend of leaving guys in scoring position with 2 outs. 10 times over 18 innings (not even including Redding, so really 11) our batters couldn't plate guys from second or third. I'm unhappy with this.

And last but certainly not least, the first 6 rounds of the draft took place tonight. The Nats snagged 3 hitters and 3 pitchers. 3 of these guys were high schoolers (meaning they're a year younger than me, weird), 1 was a first year JuCo guy (meaning he's my age, weird) and 2 were college juniors (meaning they're only 2 years older than me, still weird). Here's their haul (do yourself a favor and head to Nationals Farm Authority to see the full scouting reports. Great work, Brian!!): RHP Aaron Crow (University of Missouri), OF Destin Hood (Alabama-HS), SS Danny Espinosa (Long Beach State), LHP Graham Hicks (Florida-HS), C Adrian Nieto (Florida-HS) and RHP Paul Demny (Blinn JC). Among these guys, I'm ecstatic about Crow, Espinosa, Hicks and Nieto. All were excellent value picks and all but Nieto are pretty projectable at this point. Crow is going to be a #1-2 starter, Espinosa comes from Shortstop U (the alma mater of Chris Gomez, Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria), Hicks is another lefty who can throw strikes (following in the footsteps of Smoker and McGeary) and Nieto was the 4th rated catcher on most boards (behind Posey, Skipworth and Castro, all high first round picks). Hood and Demny are high risk-high reward guys it's looking like, but I'm happy with the balance of predictability (4 guys) and risk/reward (2).