Thoughts on a couple of things

Now that I've got a minute (quite literally A minute...I SHOULD be studying for finals), I'll go over a few transactions the Nats have made lately:

Released RHP Jesus Colome

Can't say I'm heartbroken over this move. Yea, his ERA+ was 102, indicating he was an average pitcher. I don't disagree with that. Over the span of the year, he was average...but he was also one of the most inconsistent pitchers I've ever seen. Generally speaking, a starting pitcher's inconsistancies tend to balance themselves out over the span of 200 innings in a year. I'm not so sure that the same case can be made for relief pitchers. Colome gave up 2 or more earned runs in 15% of his appearances (9 out of 61). There are a lot better ways to spend $1 mil than on Jesus Colome. I would, however, bring him back with a minor league deal.

Signed UTIL Wee Willie Harris to a 2 year, $3 mil extension

Great move. If this works out like it should, just hope this doesn't convince Bowden that he should get back to doing this on a regular basis. Resigning Da Meat Hook, Belliard, etc. after reclamation projects was bad enough. But, back to Wee Willie-$1.5 mil for the 6th best LF in baseball (and fan favorite) is a darn good deal. I have a feeling he'll go from being the 6th best LF to being a top 10 2B, though. Great move nonetheless.

Non-tendering RHP Tim Redding

I have mixed emotions on this one.

Pros of getting rid of him: Clearing space for young guys, saving $, not much upside.

Cons of getting rid of him: OMG NO STARTING PITCHING DEPTH!!!!!!

I'm leaning toward liking this move, or at least agreeing with it. You know what you're getting with Redding: roughly 180 innings of 5-ish ERA ball. I think we can get something similar out of guys from our system, though, and not just the obvious names...I'm talking minor league FA's. This move really opens a door for J.D. Martin (and to a lesser extent, Preston Larrison) to challenge for a spot in Spring Training and I have a sneaking suspicion he'll end up on the Opening Day roster. There's my fearless prediction.

Signing a million guys to minor league deals

Here's the list:

Freddie Bynum

Brad Eldred^

Joel Guzman

Pete Orr*^

Matt Whitney^

Ryan Langerhans*^

Jorge Padilla*

Mike Vento

Bobby Brownlie*

Preston Larrison

J.D. Martin^

Ryan Wagner*^

Justin Jones*

*=With the Nats organization last year

^=moves we already knew about

Beyond the Box Score gave "one line descriptions" of all of these guys: 

"Bynum is a speed burner capable of playing decent defense in the corners. Eldred spent 2008 in the Chicago White Sox organization. Guzman went from top prospect to AAA filler within three years. Orr, Langerhans, Vento, Jones and Padilla are re-signings. Langerhans will almost certainly have zero shot at breaking into the Nationals outfield. Whitney is a former Rule 5 pick of the  Nats from Cleveland's system and martin as well as Larrison are former Indians as well."

NFA classified the Guzman signing as "A nice gamble for a team that can afford to give it a shot."

FJB hates the Guzman signing, and I can't help but disagree. The guy is being signed to play in AAA for the shot to back up Ryan Zimmerman. His OBP numbers used to be a lot better. Maybe there's something in his swing Eckstein will point out that will allow him to make better adjustments, or maybe someone in our organization can help him learn better bat control and pitch selection. While this is unlikely, he's not blocking anyone and his contract is just a minor league deal. I seriously don't see downside in this signing.

Mailbag

Ladson was a little late posting it today so I didn't get to it before class. Here we go!

If they sign a first baseman like Mark Teixeira, what are the Nationals' plans for Nick Johnson? 
-- Don T., Milwaukee

Start him and bench Teixeira, durrrrrrr. But in reality, I think we'd ship him off to an AL team who can DH him (Oakland has reportedly been interested and I could see the Yankees in on him if they lose on Tex).

Knowing the Nationals had one of the worst ERAs in the National League last year, would you rather get a high-priced slugger or a pitcher? 
-- Matt S., Farmingdale, N.Y.

I'd rather have a good pitcher than a good slugger but at the same time I'd rather have a high-priced slugger than a high-priced pitcher, if that makes sense. I think with a slugger you're more likely to get production in the latter years of those big contracts.

Given the glut of outfielders on the Nats' roster, do you see one of them possibly moving to first base? 
-- Chris W., Woodbridge, Conn.

Willingham is the only one I can see moving to 1B. Kearns and Dukes are too valuable defensively in the outfield and I don't think Milledge or Pena could handle 1B.

Did Ryan Wagner re-sign with the Nationals after electing free agency? 
-- Kristen H., Alexandria, Va.

Yes. Info was cloudy on this at first, but Baseball America seemed to have confirmed it a while ago. Funny how a certain Nationals.com reporter never said anything about it...

I would like to see the Nats sign Pedro Martinez to a one-year deal. Although he has been hurt often, Martinez has shown he can be dominant at times. I also think he could be a good mentor for Collin Balester or Jordan Zimmermann. What are your thoughts? 
-- Eric R., Shullsburg, Wis.

I wholeheartedly agree with this idea. Sign 2 pitchers with injury risks-Pedro and Ben Sheets. Between the two of them, you might get 300 innings of Cy Young pitching. Or you might get 100. Money is the only risk, but these guys come at a discount. These are the types of moves that we need to be making-take chances on guys with immense talent and hope that they stay healthy. The difference would be that we would (probably for the first time ever) have decent plan B's if these guys go down with injuries. We have several capable starters already: Balester, Redding, Lannan, Bergmann, Zimmermann, Olsen, Hill Martis, etc. but It's safe to say Sheets and Pedro would be 1-2. That would leave us with probably Lannan, Olsen and Balester, with Redding as a long reliever, Bergmann put in the pen where I think he belongs, Hill on the DL and Zimmermann and martis with more time in AA/AAA. EDIT-I forgot about Randy Johnson. I wholeheartedly support signing him.

Why not put Ronnie Belliard at first base? In limited time, he has put up decent offensive numbers. 
-- Andy S., Fairfax, Va.

He's not tall enough, simply put.

Do you see the Nats trying to sign any veteran starting pitchers? 
-- Andy S., Fairfax, Va.

"Yes, I do. Who that is, I don't know." Answer of the year, Ladson. Ideally, as I said, the Nats would bring in Pedro and Sheets. I think a retread like Mike Hampton is more likely, however (although his lefthandedness might keep the Nats from doing so...any ideas on another guy? I had a list at some point that I'll dig for). EDIT-Hampton signed with the Astros, so we really will need to look elsewhere.

What's Wily Mo Pena been up to this offseason? 
-- Dan D., Washington

He's gotten as many hits this offseason as he did last season, that's for sure.

"A couple of weeks ago, general manager Jim Bowden told the local media that Pena is slowly recovering from shoulder surgery and it has prevented him from playing winter ball this offseason. Pena is expected to be ready for Spring Training, however."-Ladson

Do you think Ian Desmond has a chance to become the Nationals' regular shortstop in two years? 
-- Gary G., North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

No. He can't hit. I'm done being optimistic with this guy...until he can prove me wrong (a la Mike Hinckley), I'm sticking to my gut and saying no, Ian Desmond will never be a starting shortstop in the major leagues.

Mailbag time!

The best time of the week-MAILBAG TIME!

What do you think Austin Kearns's future is with the Nats?
-- Ryan S., Millersville, Md.

He will be back and will be the starting RF. He won't be an all-star, but he'll hit AT THE VERY LEAST .260/.340/.430 with stellar defense, assuming he's healthy (not a safe assumption). Nobody will take his salary and the Nats won't buy him out when he has the potential to come back big.

Does Willie Harris have a shot as an everyday player?
-- Tim T., Reston, Va.

No. He's an awesome utility guy, but the position he's best at, LF, demands a ton more power out of a player. If he's smart, he sticks with the Nats because they'll offer him a ton of playing time at his non-premium defensive positions (3B).

About a year ago, I asked if you thought a Chad Cordero trade for Jason Bay was a possibility. You said, "That would be a steal for the Pirates. I want to know why Bay slumped so badly for the Bucs last year." Do you think a player like Bay would have salvaged the poor offense and provided the extra power the Nationals needed throughout the season?
-- Brandon P., Bethesda, Md.

I'm LOLing at Ladson's answer: "Besides the poor offense that you mentioned, there were a lot of injuries, the team played poorly on defense and pitching was shaky, at best. Here's another thing the fans don't talk about: The base running was awful, especially during the second half. "

Yes, but trading a reliever for Jason Freaking Bay would have been a steal for the Pirates? I love the Chief, but relief pitchers are the most overpriced commodity in baseball. You have to make that trade 10 out of 10 times (if it were actually on the table, which I doubt). Bay would have made the Nats better offensively, but not enough to escape the cellar.

I have followed Levale Speigner since he was in high school. What are his prospects for next season?
-- Terri S., Lisbon, Ohio

If he makes a 40-man roster, it will not be with the Nats. If it is with the Nats, I will start weeping.

After the last four seasons, how can we view pitching as the one area not in need of a new coach? The Nationals rank near the bottom of every category in pitching as well as hitting, but we're not replacing the pitching coach during this major housecleaning?
-- Bill W., Alexandria, Va.

The problem isn't Randy St. Claire-it's the garbage he's forced to work with. Unless we're talking someone like the Leo Mazzone of the 1990s as pitching coach, our pitchers would get worse rather than better with a different pitching coach. Hope you didn't forget our one-season-wonders Hector Carrasco, Esteban Loaiza and Odalis Perez...I attribute all of their collective success to St. Claire.

What is Ryan Wagner's status with the team?
-- Ross B., Highland, Va.

According to Ladson, his shoulder is healthy and he will be ready for Spring Training. I don't see him making the ML squad unless he has a great spring training-he's behind Hanrahan, Mock, Rivera, Bergmann, Shell, Hinckley, etc. already.

Why do you keep saying that Lastings Milledge is a building block given his numbers in the Major Leagues? Compare his numbers to the center fielders on contending teams - Elijah Dukes and Justin Maxwell have shown much more potential.
-- Kimon G., Bethesda, Md.

As Ladson hinted, Dukes and Maxwell are very injury-prone. Milledge has done a lot at a very young age. You can't help but be encouraged by a .268/.330/.402 slash line out of a 23 year old. Dukes will be the long-term CF, though, and Millz with Thrillz will be in LF.

How safe is Manny Acta's job, and how long does his current contract run?
-- Frank H., Northampton, UK

This is something that I've been struggling with. I know Manny does a great job with the guys, but there is really no way to judge a manager who is stuck with crappy players. I've never been impressed with Acta's in-game strategy, but his morale boosting is worth keeping him around for...I say hold on to him until the Baby Nats grow up and Acta actually has something to work with. If he fails then, he's gone.

I leave for 3 hours...

And the Nats go and trade their closer and sign their shortstop to an extension.

First, we'll discuss the Rauch deal:
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com figured Bowden would ask for more than just IF Emilio Bonifacio for Rauch.
MLB Fleece Factor thinks it is a pretty good deal for both teams.
National Fanboy Looser thanks Rauch for a job well done and asks if it's a good deal or not.
Fire Jim Bowden says "at first blush this is the kind of deal we should be doing."
We've Got Heart also figured the Nats would get more prospects for Rauch.
Bleacher Banter's intitial reaction is positive.

Something interesting I wanted to pass along (from Nationals Journal commenter "e"):

I'm going to try and be optimistic about this. I'm not thinking "another Nook Logan." I'm going to think, "another Jose Reyes."

Bonifacio's minor league stats:

6 seasons; 648 games; 2543 AB's
.283/.339/.360
12 HR; 216 RBI
209 BB; 528 K
226 SB; 65 CS (78%)

Jose Reyes' minor league stats:

4 seasons; 343 games; 1303 AB's
.285/.338/.423
13 HR; 135 RBI
101 BB; 217 K
129 SB; 44 CS (75%)

Sure, the strikeouts are a concern, but he has cut down on them some this season.

Reyes didn't start hitting homers until his second full season with the Mets.

My first reaction is that we got a decent player in a position of need. I think we could have gotten more for Rauch (perhaps another low-level prospect), but if this was Rauch's market, I'm happy. I heard rumors of Reid Brignac for Rauch, which would have made me happier, but this is fine. I'd also like to point out that the trade is with Arizona, which means Bonifacio is a Rizzo boy. I like Rizzo's guys.

I'm looking for Joel Hanrahan to become the new closer rather than Saul Rivera. Hanrahan's numbers are good enough for the role (although Rivera's are a bit better), but Hanrahan seems like a better option for the long-term (Hanrahan is 26, Rivera is 30). I'd rather see him learn into the role now (since he's got electric stuff) when we don't have many legitimate options in the back of the pen. (side note-it's amazing that this is the first time I've ever tagged Saul Rivera in an entry. He's that non-descript, I guess). Ryan Wagner is probably going to replace Rauch on the 25-man roster.

Now to Guzman-Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times says the deal is $8 mil per year for 2 years. That seems a bit steep, considering he did basically nothing in years 1-3 of his current contract, but it does seem he has turned his career around for the most part. At this point, I don't think the price even matters, since we already know the Lerners aren't going to spend any money anyways.

And the current polls on Nationals Journal indicate that there is widespread approval (82% at this time) of Guzman's signing, but mild skepticism (58% approval) concerning the Rauch trade.