Pity Brewers Fans

They seem to be collecting hated ex-Nats. Within a week of trading for Fail-ipe Lopez, the Brew Crew signed Jesus Colome today. I'm so sorry, Milwaukee. At least you have beer to drown your sorrows in...

Correct Opening Day roster set...2 weeks too late

Chico's got the moves:

Added to the roster: Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Kip Wells and Jordan Zimmermann

Removed from the roster: Saul Rivera and Josh Bard (optioned to Syracuse) and Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell (DFA'ed).

I think Colome should be up rather than Wells (and is bringing Kip Wells up really worth losing Steven Shell?) but other than that, the right moves were made.

And Ryan Zimmerman has agreed to terms. Maybe today isn't so bad after all!

EDIT-my first favorite Natinal, Brad Wilkerson, has retired. Best of luck, Brad!

Roster Strategery

From NJ: your Opening Day Nationals

Pitching Rotation 
LHP John Lannan 
LHP Scott Olsen 
RHP Daniel Cabrera 
RHP Shairon Martis

These 4 all deserved to be here. No surprises or disgust here. Z-NN will be up when we need a 5th man in a few weeks.

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard (1B/2B/3B)
Alberto Gonzalez (2B/SS)
Cristian Guzman (SS)
Willie Harris (2B/3B/OF)
Nick Johnson (1B)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

I think the Nats did the right thing here as well when they sent down Casto and Cintron. Both will get another chance at some point during the year.

Bullpen 
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan 
LHP Mike Hinckley 
LHP Wil Ledezma 
RHP Saul Rivera 
RHP Steven Shell 
RHP Julian Tavarez

YUCK! This is poor bullpen management at it's best. 3 LHP is just stupid on all levels, even if Beimel isn't a LOOGY. Tavarez shouldn't have made the pen over Mock or Bergmann (or Colome, even), and one of Hinckley/Ledezma really had to go. Rizzo and Kasten get a F for the bullpen.

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

The front office failed here as well. They brought the best 5 OF they have to the big league squad, that's not the issue. Instead, the issue is that they didn't move a single one of them! I really can't believe they didn't deal off Willingham.

As for the Kearns/Dukes situation, I favor Manny's decision to start Kearns off under 1 condition-it's not permanent. When Dukes' bat gets up to speed, he starts. He's not ready yet, but needs to start when he is.

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

Carrying 3 catchers is stupid in almost every case, but this is just going to be an extended audition between Bard and Nieves until Hernandez comes back. Also, Flores will need time to adjust to ML pitching, as he missed much of ST, so 3 catchers isn't a terrible idea here.

Nats roster almost finalized

According to Ladson, Alex Cintron has accepted an assignment to AAA Syracuse. He also notes that Josh Bard and Wil Nieves will probably both make the team and Kory Casto will be waived today or tomorrow. That leaves the bullpen as the only place not yet decided. 

Chico was right that Bard and Nieves would stay and Cintron and Castro would go and predicts Tavarez, Shell, Hinckley and Bergmann will be the remaining 4 relievers (with Colome, Mock and Ledezma losing out). I think it should be Bergmann, Mock, Colome and Shell, but I think it will be Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Hinckley.

Bergmann has to be a lock now with a 0.00 ERA in 11 and 1/3 innings (although he has allowed 4 unearned runs). I'd have to think Mock's chances are pretty good as well, with a 2.42 ERA in 26 IP as a reliever last year and 3.94 in 16 ST innings this year, so he hasn't done anything to lose his spot. Shell is in the same boat, with a 2.16 ERA last year and a 4.09 in Spring Training. I'd like to see Colome make the team, despite my dislike of his "Human Rain Delay" tactics. He has allowed 1 run in 10 innings in ST and has an impressive 9:0 K:BB ratio (yes, that's right, Colome has not walked anyone in 10 straight innings!). Tavarez has simply sucked in his 2 games and probably needs more seasoning before he plays in the majors this year, so I don't see why he would stick with the big club (and waste another 40-man spot). I don't see why Hinckley would win a spot over Ledezma (although I don't think either should make the team). But there's my rant.

In Ladson's article, he also mentions a possible competition between Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns as the starting RF. While I love Elijah Dukes, I do think that Kearns has earned a job at least every other day somewhere-he's an outstanding fielder and will improve greatly with the bat (he was playing hurt last year, that's why his numbers were so terrible). While Dukes' numbers haven't been terrible in Spring Training (and not that it would matter anyways, because ST stats mean very little), his K rate is alarming-43% of his at-bats! He's being overmatched by pitchers (and Spring Training pitchers at that)...does that not scare anyone else? 

Ideally, I'd like to see Willingham traded and have the ratios go like this:

1B: Johnson-80% of starts, Dunn-20% of starts

LF: Dunn-70% of starts, Kearns-25% of starts, Harris-5% of starts

CF: Milledge-70% of starts, Dukes-15% of starts, Harris-15% of starts

RF: Dukes-60% of starts, Kearns-40% of starts

Giving Johnson starts in 4/5 games, Dunn starts in 9/10 games, Harris in 1/5 (plus some 2B/3B time), Kearns in a little more than 3/5, Milledge in 7/10 and Dukes in a little more than 7/10. We've got 5 good outfielders, we just need a time and place to use them.

Sunday Inbox

Ladson's at it again! Inbox time!

I've been a fan of Hill's since he made his debut with the Expos in 2004. I don't understand why the Nationals released a man with his great work ethic. The team has had patience with first baseman Nick Johnson. I think you will agree Hill had tremendous upside.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

To be honest, Hill's time was up with up. He might be a great pitcher somewhere else, but we just couldn't count on him anymore. The team was better off moving on, in my opinion.

How is Johnson looking this spring?
-- Lou L., Sacramento, Calif.

Numbers are decieving (and pretty much pointless in Spring Training), but from what I've heard so far, Nick the Stick is looking decent. Here's to hoping he can play 130 games this year.

Do you think that the Nationals are going to miss Perez? Last year, he ate up a lot of innings and had a decent ERA. I never understood why the Nats didn't reward him with a Major League contract.
-- Phil I., Rockville, Md.

No. He was league average, yes, but they have a lot more pitchers this year capable of doing so. And I don't think it's good to have 3 LHP in the rotation, either. Olsen is his replacement, and at least Olsen has upside.

You said recently to not get ahead of ourselves when talking about right-hander Steven Strasburg -- but how can we not? He is the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior, and we have the No. 1 pick. Are you saying the Nats aren't going to pick him?
-- Michael S. Richmond, Va.

Look at what you just said..."the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior." Remember what happened to Mark Prior? Don't get ahead of yourself, there is no such thing as a known quantity in college baseball (or really in any kind of baseball).

Right-hander Jason Bergmann has yet to give up an earned run. I think he is really making a case to make the team and showing how much he wants to stay in the Majors. What are his chances?
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll make the team as a middle reliever...a 75% chance.

Is Jesus Colome still alive in the competition to make the bullpen? You don't have his name listed on the depth chart.
-- Joseph M., Westwood, NJ

Also a 75% chance. For both of them, we'll see them anyways so it's not a huge deal if they don't make the initial Opening Day roster.

I would like to see the Nationals hire Frank Howard as a hitting coach. Is this possible?
-- Alan N., Washington D.C.

As a hitting coach, no. He should be hired somewhere in the system, but  not as the hitting coach. Think "special instructor" type roles. Team Ambassador? Something like that?

Thoughts on a couple of things

Now that I've got a minute (quite literally A minute...I SHOULD be studying for finals), I'll go over a few transactions the Nats have made lately:

Released RHP Jesus Colome

Can't say I'm heartbroken over this move. Yea, his ERA+ was 102, indicating he was an average pitcher. I don't disagree with that. Over the span of the year, he was average...but he was also one of the most inconsistent pitchers I've ever seen. Generally speaking, a starting pitcher's inconsistancies tend to balance themselves out over the span of 200 innings in a year. I'm not so sure that the same case can be made for relief pitchers. Colome gave up 2 or more earned runs in 15% of his appearances (9 out of 61). There are a lot better ways to spend $1 mil than on Jesus Colome. I would, however, bring him back with a minor league deal.

Signed UTIL Wee Willie Harris to a 2 year, $3 mil extension

Great move. If this works out like it should, just hope this doesn't convince Bowden that he should get back to doing this on a regular basis. Resigning Da Meat Hook, Belliard, etc. after reclamation projects was bad enough. But, back to Wee Willie-$1.5 mil for the 6th best LF in baseball (and fan favorite) is a darn good deal. I have a feeling he'll go from being the 6th best LF to being a top 10 2B, though. Great move nonetheless.

Non-tendering RHP Tim Redding

I have mixed emotions on this one.

Pros of getting rid of him: Clearing space for young guys, saving $, not much upside.

Cons of getting rid of him: OMG NO STARTING PITCHING DEPTH!!!!!!

I'm leaning toward liking this move, or at least agreeing with it. You know what you're getting with Redding: roughly 180 innings of 5-ish ERA ball. I think we can get something similar out of guys from our system, though, and not just the obvious names...I'm talking minor league FA's. This move really opens a door for J.D. Martin (and to a lesser extent, Preston Larrison) to challenge for a spot in Spring Training and I have a sneaking suspicion he'll end up on the Opening Day roster. There's my fearless prediction.

Signing a million guys to minor league deals

Here's the list:

Freddie Bynum

Brad Eldred^

Joel Guzman

Pete Orr*^

Matt Whitney^

Ryan Langerhans*^

Jorge Padilla*

Mike Vento

Bobby Brownlie*

Preston Larrison

J.D. Martin^

Ryan Wagner*^

Justin Jones*

*=With the Nats organization last year

^=moves we already knew about

Beyond the Box Score gave "one line descriptions" of all of these guys: 

"Bynum is a speed burner capable of playing decent defense in the corners. Eldred spent 2008 in the Chicago White Sox organization. Guzman went from top prospect to AAA filler within three years. Orr, Langerhans, Vento, Jones and Padilla are re-signings. Langerhans will almost certainly have zero shot at breaking into the Nationals outfield. Whitney is a former Rule 5 pick of the  Nats from Cleveland's system and martin as well as Larrison are former Indians as well."

NFA classified the Guzman signing as "A nice gamble for a team that can afford to give it a shot."

FJB hates the Guzman signing, and I can't help but disagree. The guy is being signed to play in AAA for the shot to back up Ryan Zimmerman. His OBP numbers used to be a lot better. Maybe there's something in his swing Eckstein will point out that will allow him to make better adjustments, or maybe someone in our organization can help him learn better bat control and pitch selection. While this is unlikely, he's not blocking anyone and his contract is just a minor league deal. I seriously don't see downside in this signing.

If I were GM of the Washington Nationals

First of all, I would be the youngest GM of all time. But that's not important. I'm going to avoid a long intro (I'll save my good introductions for when I actually sit down and write a feature) and cut right to the chase.

There are 25 players on the Nationals' Active Roster, for those who don't know. Out of those 25, 6 should not be: Jesus Colome, Charlie Manning, Willie Harris, Ryan Langerhans, Rob Mackowiak and Ryan Zimmerman. Before you stop reading the post, I named Zimmerman because he needs to go on the DL to get everything (meaning his shoulder) together. It would be retroactive to his last game, 5/25, so he would only have another 8 days before he could return. I will also note that Harris will stay because they need him in the utility spot until Belliard's return, which could be soon.

For those of you who can't figure out how many players are on the Nationals' 40-man roster, I wonder how any people from Philly came across my blog (it's okay, they don't know I'm making fun of them. They can't read sentences that don't include "cheesesteak," "Utley," "E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!" or "f#$%"). But in all seriousness, the capacity of 40 players has been met. For many of my proposed moves (and there are many), a corresponding move must be made. Guys like Langerhans, Sanches, Manning and O'Connor should slip through very easily. Even Johnny Estrada could make it through (but he's on the DL)

Anyways, here is what I think would be best for the Nationals:

To Washington (ML)
1B/3B/OF Kory Casto (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)
OF Kenny Lofton (FA signing, must be added to 40-man roster)
OF Alex Escobar (from Columbus, must be added to 40-man roster)
SP Garrett Mock (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)
RP Zech Zinicola (from Harrisburg, must be added to 40-man roster)
RP Chris Schroder (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)

To Columbus (AAA)
OF Ryan Langerhans (from Washington)
IF/OF Rob Mackowiak (from Washington)
RP Jesus Colome (from Washington)
RP Charlie Manning (from Washington)
RP Brian Sanches (from Washington)

To 15-Day DL
3B Ryan Zimmerman (from Washington)

Outrighted off of the 40-man roster
OF Ryan Langerhans (has been done before)
RP Jesus Colome
RP Charlie Manning
SP Mike O'Connor (has been done before, only if needed)
IF/OF Rob Mackowiak


Okay, to start the defense of some radical moves:
INFIELD
Zimmerman is hurt. He needs to go on the DL. There is no use rushing the franchise player during a season that the team is going nowhere. This is the reason for the Casto move. Boone is hitting, but he's 35 and needs a day off (and a day at 1B) here and there to keep going. Young is hitting .224. Casto didn't hit well (.130) in his stint in our Nation's Capital in 2007, but he certainly deserves another shot for 4 reasons: his age (26), his handedness (hits lefty), his batting average in AAA (.333) and the fact that he had exactly 0 AB's above AA when he made his ML debut.
Out of every 4 games,
Boone gets 2 starts at 3B and 1 at 1B.
Casto gets 2 starts at 3B.
Young gets 3 starts at 1B.
Sound fair?

OUTFIELD
With KKKKK-angerhans and MacKKKKKowiaKKKKK down and Escobar and Lofton up, the outfield would take a different shape. There is little doubt in my mind that Escobar deserves another shot at the Majors after tearing it apart in 2006 (.356/.394/.575). I'm not positive Lofton would accept the role I'm looking to put him in-mentor/4th OF, but he's been unemployed for a few months so he may bite. Someone needs to teach Lastings how to play CF, and I think Lofton can do it. With the OF hitting as poorly as it is, something needs to get in there and shake them up. I'm also willing to keep one of the KKKKK brothers up as a 5th OF/lefty off the bench and send down Dukes if playing time is an issue.

Out of every 5 games,
Milledge gets 3 starts in CF, 1 start in LF
Dukes gets 3 starts in RF
Pena gets 3 starts in LF
Lofton gets 2 starts in CF
Escobar gets 2 starts in RF and 1 in LF

If one of the KKKKK brothers stays and Dukes goes down to AAA, shift 1 of his starts to Lofton, 1 to Escobar and 1 to the remaining KKKKK brother.

PITCHING
This is where a lot of you are going to think I'm crazy. Why call up Mock when we have 5 solid starters? To be honest, we don't have 5 solid starters. We have 4 solid starters: Perez, Lannan, Redding and Bergmann. Then we have one, Shawn Hill, who scares us the night before his starts into thinking he's not pitching the next day and the night after his starts into thinking he's not pitching the next year.

It's time to turn Shawn Hill into a dominant reliever. He's got so many arm problems these days, there is no reason in my mind that we shouldn't turn him into something useful before he throws out his elbow and is out of professional baseball at 30 (see Patterson, John). Look at Hill's career splits. Over his career, he allows a .229/.286/.306 line against him for the first time opposing batters face him in a game. That inflates to .299/.364/.447 the second time around, and baloons to .282/.352/.492 for the third time around and after. Hill is ridiculously good in the first inning he pitches (.191/.248/.200 against) and pedestrian after that (opposing OPS' of .851, .806, .751, .792, .840 in innings 2-6, only 47 career PA against after 6 innings). With Jon Rauch pitching as great as he is, he's going to get dealt to a contender and we're going to need someone to step in to both the closer and set-up roles (trust me, I'm not counting out The Chief). Hill's chances of being something special are significantly better if he is converted into a reliever rather than staying as a starter.

So now that we've established Hill to the bullpen, who do we insert into the rotation? Look no further than the better of the Rizzo Diamondback Boys, Garrett Mock. His numbers are finally starting to match his good stuff (3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.5:1 K:BB ratio). He's already on the 40-man roster. Give the kid a shot.

I'm sure you know one of my call-ups, Chris Schroder. He's been up and down 3 times already this year, and is eligible to be brought up immediately assuming Zimmerman is placed on the DL (not a safe assumption in reality, however). The normal 10-day rule that states a player cannot be called up for the first 10 days after being optioned to the minors would not apply (that would coincidentally expire Monday) because Schroder would take the roster spot of a player put on the DL. Positions don't have to match (read more about the rule here) so Schroder gets the call. But he's actually getting the call to replace Brian Sanches. While Sanches has pitched decently well in his time in Washington (3.00 ERA, 6 K in 3 innings), Schroder proved with his stats last year (3.18 ERA, 15 BB, 43 K in 45 and 1/3 IP) that he can handle ML bats on a regular basis, while Sanches' 2007 stats with the Phillies (5.52 ERA, 12 BB, 9 K in 14 and 1/3 innings) proved pretty much nothing to help his case. Sanches should be an injury contingency plan, whereas Schroder should be an ML pitcher in almost all circumstances.

The other reliever who I want to call up is not a familiar face in DC. Zechry Zinicola, a 24 year old righty, was dubbed "on the fast track" for the majors until he was derailed with an average performance in AA last year (5.46 ERA in 57 and 1/3 innings). Now that he's got his walks down (2.84 per 9 innings this year as opposed to 5.62 per 9 last year), he seems to be back on the right track. With 26 K and only 19 hits allowed in his 25 and 1/3 innings split between A and AA ball this year (1.07 ERA!!), I think it's safe to say he deserves his shot in the bigs now. He replaces Colome, another guy who had control problems last year (3.68 BB/9). The difference? Colome's control problems are worse this year (5.70 BB/9, 59% of pitches thrown are strikes). Manny doesn't even trust him anymore, as Colome has thrown 1 inning in the last week. Send Colome down to rest his buttocks (sorry, couldn't resist...link is SFW, no worries) and get a handle on his live arm.

One last point: We don't need a lefty in the pen. Why not? Because none of the lefties we have in ML or AAA can get lefty batters out! O'Connor's career OPS against while facing left-handed hitters is .732. Chico's is .854. I can't find Manning's minor league splits, but seeing him give up homers to Adrian Gonzalez and Jody Gerut makes me want him to never pitch in the Majors again (unless it's against us).

Questions:
Can Mock be consistant?
Can Lofton teach Milledge CF?
Will any of these players get claimed if waived?
When are we going to FIRE LENNY?!?!?

Let me know if you have any thoughts on the subject.

Last night...

Not a whole lot I'm going to say about last night. I've got a few key hits though (something the Nats lacked last night!!)
--Chico sucks, why is he not in AAA?
--Jesus sucks (Colome, that is)...why is he not in AAA/on waivers/walking and balking for a different team?
--Jesus lives (Flores, that is)...he's hitting the tar out of the ball, playing terrific defense, calling a great game...if Lo Duca starts more than 2 times a week when he gets back, I don't know what JimBo is doing. The money doesn't matter. Developing one of our best young players, who is CLEARLY ready to be playing every day in the majors, should be priority 1A.
--Kearns to the DL? Couldn't hurt. Give the man another week off, give Dukes the at bats or call up one of the younger guys (Maxwell, Daniel, Bernadina, even Kory Casto. Again, we should be developing our prospects. Casto can still become a role player!!). Doesn't hurt to let Kearns heal, it's not like he's our star player right now anyways.