Nats/Expos recent draft history: Intro and the Jim Beattie Era

Since the draft takes place two weeks from tomorrow, I figured I'd run a mini-series evaluating the Nats/Expos drafts since 1995 (a completely arbitrary date to pick, simply because there was a leadership change from Kevin Malone to Jim Beattie as GM). Your 4 GM's being evaluated are Malone (just his last draft), Beattie, Omar Minaya and our favorite, Jim Bowden (note-Larry Beinfest served as the interim GM from 2001-02, but did not draft in his short reign).

So, starting in 1995:

GM: Malone

Total picks: 46

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML in 2009): 6-Michael Barrett* (1), Henry Mateo (2), J.D. Smart (4), Brian Schneider* (5), Jeff Austin (10) and Pete LaForest (16).

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 2228 (dominated by Barrett and Schneider's combined 1928)

Out of the 6 players they drafted, only 2 are still active and they were really the only two to stick in the majors. Funny that 3 of the 6 drafted were catchers in the majors. While this draft was a major failure talent-wise, it at least produced ML players in 4 of the top 5 picks. Also worth noting: the Expos picked 28th overall, the latest non-supplemental first round status in franchise history, as they were the best team in baseball in the strike-shortened 1994 season. Overall, it was a pretty bad draft.

1996:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 46

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 8-John Patterson (1), Milton Bradley* (2), Christian Parker (4), Jamey Carroll* (14), Andy Tracy* (16), Chris Stowers (17), Tim Young (19) and Carl Sadler (34).

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 1834

Like many of the drafts I'll be examining, there was an excellent find in the top few rounds: Milton Bradley. Another trend that goes hand-in-hand with that: Bradley barely played 100 games for the Expos. Remember that Patterson didn't sign with the Expos, but instead with the Diamondbacks (according to Wikipedia, "Montreal lost the draft rights to Patterson on a legal technicality: they sent him a contract offer that was not printed on official team letterhead, and he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for $6.075 million."). So even though this draft produced two ML batters with 700+ games played in Bradley and Jamey Carroll, the Nats got pretty much nothing out of this draft.

1997:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 56

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 5-Brian Hebson (1s), TJ Tucker (1s), Talmadge Nunnari (9), Scott Strickland (10), Matt Blank (11)

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 437

Worst. Draft. Ever. In. The. History. Of. Everything. This is completely unfathomably bad. The Expos had 7 supplemental first round picks and 9 total in the top 100. Out of these, 2 made the majors: Brian Hebson (2 career games) and TJ Tucker (171 career games). This is ineptitude that surpasses even Jim Bowden. Out of the top 15 drafted, 2 made the majors. Of the 13 that didn't, 11 were High Schoool picks and 2 were Junior College selections. Pretty much the textbook year for the "DON'T DRAFT HS PLAYERS" way of thinking.

1998:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 47

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 2-Brad Wilkerson (1s) and Jimmy Serrano (18)

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 982

Despite the fact that there were only 2 Major Leaguers in the Expos' 1998 draft, at least they didn't blow 7 of 8 supplemental first rounders. Wilkerson was an average-or-better hitter for 5 full seasons and Serrano pitched 32 and 2/3 innings of league-average ball in 2004. But wow, what a killer 2-year stretch for the Expos. I didn't put a * beside Wilkerson because, even though he played a little bit for the Red Sox' AAA affiliate this year, he officially retired.

1999:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 48

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 5-Brandon Phillips* (2), Matt Cepicky (4), Brandon Watson* (9), Val Pascucci* (15) and Matt Watson (16)

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 818

Another terribly top-heavy draft that didn't benefit the franchise at all. Phillips turned into a very good 2B, but nobody else stuck in the Majors out of this draft. 4th straight year of little return for the franchise. No wonder the Expos were so bad.

2000:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 49

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 11-Justin Wayne (1), Grady Sizemore* (3), Cliff Lee* (4), Shawn Hill* (6), Wes Littleton* (7), Phil Seibel (8), Fred Lewis* (20), Jason Bay* (22), Russell Martin* (35), Anthony Ferrari (44) and Jeff Karstens* (45) (note-Littleton, Lewis, Martin and Karstens did not sign).

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 2606

Awesome draft. Too bad only Hill did anything for the Nats. This draft was a victim of Omar Minaya, who dealt Lee, Sizemore and Brandon Phillips (along with Lee Stevens) to Cleveland for Bartolo Colon (and Tim Drew) during the 2002 season. Thank goodness Minaya, one of the most overrated GM's of the current era, is in New York now. At least there he can attempt to cover up his mistakes by spending large sums of money on FA's.

2001:

GM: Beattie

Total picks: 50

Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 4-Mike Hinckley* (3), Josh Labandeira (6), Chad Bentz (7) and Chris Schroder* (19)

Still with Nationals: 0

Total ML games amongst draftees: 137

Ummmm...when Chris Schroder is the best pick in a draft, it's a pretty bad one. That being said, I really wish we still had Schrodes to anchor or bullpen-Billy Beane, will you give him back? Pretty please?

At this point the Jim Beattie era mercifully ended. His totals: 35 major leaguers in 6 drafts...pretty bad. There were some diamonds in the rough, but none of them stuck around long enough to matter for the Nats. I'll get Minaya and Bowden done sometime tomorrow. Key stat: 0 players in drafts before 2001 are still with the Nats. Look at it this way: at least things can't get worse than this. And at least Jim Beattie isn't running the franchise anymore. You know he went to Dartmouth? For someone so smart, he's pretty stupid.

Stances on a few things

First of all, I'm sure most (if not all) of you have seen and heard about Chico-gate by now. My stance: I agree with Mike from Nationals Fanboy Looser-Chico made a mistake, apologized for it and we need to get over it. He didn't choose this beat (in Soviet Russia, beat chooses you), but still is a good writer (with the potential to be a great one) and does a fine job, considering covering baseball is a 24/7/365 event.

Lastings Milledge has been named the leadoff hitter. My stance: AGAINST! FJB had a nice post up today concerning optimizing the batting order, and while I do disagree a bit with some of it, I wholeheartedly agree with batting the OBP monsters at the top. Putting Milledge and Guzman, two of our three most undisciplined starters (the other being free-swingin Flores), 1-2 is just plain stupid.

Cutting Shawn Hill: A necessary evil. It seems that with guys like Hill, the only way to quit the whole "he's so good, but he's always hurt" mantra is to cut bait completely. I still believe Hill can be a great #3 starter, but I think it was time for him to go.

Signing Joe Beimel and Josh Bard: Both good moves. Beimel provides steadiness in the pen-he's more or less a known quantity. Not flashy, not as good as his 2008 line, but good enough to be worth $2 mil. Bard is solid and you can't argue with the price ($600k), especially when you consider the fact that he might end up being the starting catcher. From the looks of things, he's either awesome or terrible every year. Hopefully this is one of those awesome years.

Sunday Inbox

Ladson's at it again! Inbox time!

I've been a fan of Hill's since he made his debut with the Expos in 2004. I don't understand why the Nationals released a man with his great work ethic. The team has had patience with first baseman Nick Johnson. I think you will agree Hill had tremendous upside.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

To be honest, Hill's time was up with up. He might be a great pitcher somewhere else, but we just couldn't count on him anymore. The team was better off moving on, in my opinion.

How is Johnson looking this spring?
-- Lou L., Sacramento, Calif.

Numbers are decieving (and pretty much pointless in Spring Training), but from what I've heard so far, Nick the Stick is looking decent. Here's to hoping he can play 130 games this year.

Do you think that the Nationals are going to miss Perez? Last year, he ate up a lot of innings and had a decent ERA. I never understood why the Nats didn't reward him with a Major League contract.
-- Phil I., Rockville, Md.

No. He was league average, yes, but they have a lot more pitchers this year capable of doing so. And I don't think it's good to have 3 LHP in the rotation, either. Olsen is his replacement, and at least Olsen has upside.

You said recently to not get ahead of ourselves when talking about right-hander Steven Strasburg -- but how can we not? He is the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior, and we have the No. 1 pick. Are you saying the Nats aren't going to pick him?
-- Michael S. Richmond, Va.

Look at what you just said..."the greatest prospect to come along since right-hander Mark Prior." Remember what happened to Mark Prior? Don't get ahead of yourself, there is no such thing as a known quantity in college baseball (or really in any kind of baseball).

Right-hander Jason Bergmann has yet to give up an earned run. I think he is really making a case to make the team and showing how much he wants to stay in the Majors. What are his chances?
-- Alex C., Montreal

He'll make the team as a middle reliever...a 75% chance.

Is Jesus Colome still alive in the competition to make the bullpen? You don't have his name listed on the depth chart.
-- Joseph M., Westwood, NJ

Also a 75% chance. For both of them, we'll see them anyways so it's not a huge deal if they don't make the initial Opening Day roster.

I would like to see the Nationals hire Frank Howard as a hitting coach. Is this possible?
-- Alan N., Washington D.C.

As a hitting coach, no. He should be hired somewhere in the system, but  not as the hitting coach. Think "special instructor" type roles. Team Ambassador? Something like that?

Sunday Inbox

2 in 4 days, hooray! It's Ladson time.

Should the Nationals hold on to right-hander Shawn Hill? Will outfielder Elijah Dukes have a big year? Those are two of the many questions Nats fans want to know during Spring Training. Here are answers to some of those questions.

With Hill constantly getting hurt as a starter, wouldn't it be ideal for him to be moved to the bullpen? I hear he has great stuff, but his lack of endurance scares me. 
-- Rafael B., Miami

Yes. Yes, yes, yes, yes, YES. Or does moving Hill to the pen just make too much sense?

I'll keep saying it again and again. When are the Nationals going to wake up and smell the coffee concerning Hill? He is injured far too often. I think there are a couple of young pitchers in the organization that would do much better than him. 
-- Jorge T., Springfield, Va.

I'll meet you halfway. Hill is worth keeping around. It's worth taking a chance that he'll one day get healthy because when healthy, he's not just good, he's really good. But what the team needs to do is stop expecting him to be healthy, because he's not. Consider him Nick Johnson-enjoy his 1/4 of the season while it lasts.

If first basemen Chris Marrero and Nick Johnson continue to have good springs, would that affect how the Nats think about Johnson's future with the club? 
-- Brett L., Washington, D.C.

With his injury last year, Marrero is really nowhere near ML-ready. I can see Johnson being dealt, but instead of rushing Marrero to the bigs, Dunn or Willingham would shift to 1B.

Do you think the Nats will eat the salaries of Dmitri Young and Austin Kearns in an effort to keep the best players on the roster? I think the bench looks much better with Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard, Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina and Wil Nieves. 
-- Chris O., Ashland, Va.

Dmitri's not going to be on the bench, so to be honest that doesn't have any effect here. I wish people would actually give Kearns a chance instead of considering his 2008 season extreme and uncharacteristic suckitude  rather than caused by injury suckitude.

Don't you think they should keep Young and put him on the bench? I think he would be a great pinch-hitter. 
-- Michael B., Epsom, N.H.

They are keeping Young, but he isn't close to being healthy enough right now to be worth a roster shot.

As a season-ticket holder, I watched Dukes improve his hitting during the latter half of the season. He developed a keen eye for the strike zone and seldom swung at bad pitches. I believe he will draw a lot of walks and be one of the best hitters on the team this year. What is your take? 
-- Charles K., Va.

I like you, Charles K. Glad to see some good insight here as opposed to "I LIKE ______________ LET'S START HIM!!!" or "KEARNS SUCKS!!!!!1!!!"

Can we expect to see President Barack Obama throwing out the first pitch at the home opener? 
-- Michael L., Williamsburg, Va.

Don't expect it, but be pleasantly surprised if he does. He's a sports fan so I think he will throw out a home opener, but could you blame him for throwing it out for the White Sox, his favorite team?

Are the Nats interested in free agent Will Ohman? They need bullpen help, and he is a young lefty. 
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

"I see the Nationals making a trade to improve their bullpen."-Ladson

That's dangerous in my opinion. Ohman could be had for ~$1 mil. We would have to give up a prospect to get a lefty, so why not spring an extra $500k or so to get a player without having to give one up.

Why Shawn Hill should be a closer

I'm tired of seeing Shawn Hill's name penciled into the starting rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of him, but he's had so many arm problems up until this point of his career that it makes no sense to continue throwing him into the fire. For that reason in itself, it's time to turn Shawn Hill into a dominant reliever.

There are other reasons Hill should be a reliever besides his durability issues. He is very effective both in the first time through the opponent's lineup and in high leverage situations. By being a closer (or just a late-inning reliever, for that matter), he would pitch most in those two situations. So, would Hill be more effective as a reliever than as a starter? In a word, yes. 

In the first inning he pitches, Hill allows his opponents to hit .236/.297/.279 off of him, as opposed to the .296/.350/.466 opponents hit off of him from inning 2 on. The key to his first inning successed is the fact that he gives up almost nothing more than a single. There have been 33 first inning hits off of Shawn Hill in his short career. Only 4 of these (12%) went for extra bases-3 doubles and a home run. Now compare this to the 36% XBH rate from the second inning on. When a batter faces Hill for the first time in a game (not necessarily in the first inning), they hit .258/.316/.352 off of him. When they face him for the second time, that line skyrockets to .313/.369/.469 and further to .291/.354/.505 for the third (and fourth, fifth, etc.) time they face him. Hill obviously has something special that works the first time through the lineup ridiculously well.

The other main factor needed for a reliever is their success in high-leverage situations (read about the definition here). Hill performed best in the highest leverage situations, allowing a .254/.329/.362 line against. In medium leverage situations, he was decent, with a .288/.336/.434 line against. In low leverage situations, Hill got shellacked, with a .299/.366/.470 line against. So if you want a pitcher who thrives in the situations that make you sweat most, Hill's your guy.

All stats used in this post are provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Notes

The Nats signed Scott Olsen today, avoiding arbitration. They did a lot better than just meeting half-way at $2.8 mil (with $2.5 mil being the Nats' offer and a $3.5 mil counter from Olsen). Nice job by the front office getting him to agree to a deal below the midway point.

On the other hand, bad job by the front office not settling with Shawn Hill. It was a mixed bag, though, because Hill didn't seem to be distraught by the arbitration process, saying, "they stayed clean with everything, didn't attack my character or anything. It was a pretty easygoing trial." One of the first examples I've seen where players didn't mind the arbitration meeting.

Everything I read about Steven Strasburg makes me want him even more. If they screw this up...

One collectively great move the Nats made was dumping Tim Redding and resigning Odalis Perez to a minor league deal. Glad they didn't do it the other way around, they saved a lot of money (and while I think they need to spend more money, this is one example in which being thrifty is much much much better than being fiscally irresponsible).

Rough decision

It came down to studying for my Civil War final tomorrow and doing the mailbag. Tough call. So without further ado, here's your mailbag!

Why would the Nationals non-tender a guy like right-hander Tim Redding, but offer a contract to an injured pitcher such as Shawn Hill?
-- Ross B., Highland, Md.

Hill is a better pitcher than Redding, hands down. Redding was going to cost twice as much as Hill. It depends on what you want-180 mediocre innings or a gamble between probably 50 and 150 excellent or mediocre innings. I like the gamble.

Should the Nats give up on first baseman Nick Johnson because he gets injured every year? I could definitely see the Athletics or Giants come calling in a hurry.
-- Brian F., Sacramento, Calif.

I love Nick. He's a tremendous player and has so much value to the team, putting up the two best individual seasons (according to FJB, at least) in Nationals history in 2005 and '06. But he's been the least valuable player for the last two years, with 38 games played. We just can't afford to count on him anymore, I'm sorry. If there is decent interest in him, trade him. If not, hold on to him, let him build up his value, and then play it by ear from there.

In one of the previous mailbags, you said that Wily Mo Pena is recovering from shoulder surgery and should be ready for Spring Training. But is there any real need for the Nationals to keep him? It seems like they have an abundance of outfielders and Pena wasn't very productive last year.
-- Kristen L., Rockville, Md.

"There isn't a need for Pena. But you have to remember one thing: the Nationals declined a $5 million club option on Pena, who subsequently exercised a $2 million player option for the 2009 season last October." Thank you, Bill.

Any chance the Nationals would sign Dunn to play first base?
-- Fritz S., Rockville, Md.

Well they sure wouldn't signing him to play shortstop...

With Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero gone, who will be the Nationals' closer in 2009?
-- Rodney B., Greer, S.C.

Hanrahan. Don't believe the Fuentes BS...Mr. Lerner must have naked pictures of Ladson to get him to print that.

I know the Nationals don't plan on spending much money on pitching this offseason, so what do you think about bringing Livan Hernandez back? He might not be the best pitcher in the league, but he is a free agent and, if nothing else, he's an innings-eater.
-- Will R., Rose Haven, Md.

If we don't keep Redding at ~$2 mil, we will not bring Livo back at anything more than a minor league deal with a ST invite.

That's all there is...kinda a dissapoingly lame mailbag. Step it up with your questions, blogosphere!

One other note-the live chat with Jim Bowden is tomorrow at 11 am. I will be at work then, but enjoy! I'd appreciate it if someone asked Jim how the complexion of the game would change if trading draft picks were allowed, so if anyone is around the computer and wants to ask, they get an A+ for the day!

Mailbag answers

Time to answer another mailbag!

Is Ryan Zimmerman a .290 hitter and a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy or am I expecting too much?
-- Tony L., Amelia, Va.

Yes, no and yes. He already has a 110 RBI season, so that should be self-explanatory. In his rookie year, he hit .287. I see him topping out at a 20-25 HR average (maybe getting 35 or 40 in a fluke year). But I see him as a .295/.355/.500, 45 2B, 20 HR, 105 RBI guy in the future.

Do you think the play at the plate involving Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and Nationals catcher Jesus Flores was a dirty play?
-- Brendan W., Montclair, Va.

The play doesn't have to be intentionally dirty to be a dirty play. Yes, it was dirty.

The fact that you compared Adam Dunn to Dave Kingman is, frankly, way off the mark. Try looking at on-base percentage instead of average. Dunn is a beast. He would be able to play first base just fine.
-- Jon, N., D.C.

I agree. Poor comparison, Ladson. Dunn would be a good addition to this team that desperately needs power.

Will Larry Broadway be getting a September callup? Don't you think it's about time the Nationals' front office gave him a chance on the big stage?
-- Dyer T., Sanches, N.M.

No. He's not worth a 40-man spot and hasn't proved he deserves a chance in the majors. A .266/.354/.410 AAA line at 27 is not that impressive.

With Shawn Hill out for the season, is it possible we might see him move to the bullpen next season and beyond?
-- Mike H., Washington D.C.

I've been pining for this for a while. If we want Hill for any extended period of time, it will be out of the pen.

Given all of the injuries this season, and the youth of this team, I think Acta has done a masterful job keeping the players on an even keel. There have been no explosive temper tantrums that I know of and the team seems to remain positive on the field.
-- John B., Burke, Va.

He's done a good job, yes. I don't know what has happened behind the scenes with Dukes, but he hasn't had a major breakdown. I attribute the lack of insanity to Acta.

Why haven't the Nationals given Willie Harris a full-time position? He is doing a great job offensively and defensively.
-- Carrick H., Falls Church, Va.

He's a supersub and will get almost as many at bats as a starter. It works for him and it works for us, why change it?

How about Emilio Bonifacio? Do you think he will be a legit leadoff hitter in the future for the Nats?
-- Patrick, Fairfax, Va.

I hate to label him already, but the infield version of Endy Chavez is here.

Off-Day Roundup

Today was an Off-Day, so not a whole lot to talk about. Here's the roundup:

Nats roster moves: Hill to the 15-day DL, Odalis off the 15-day DL, Nicky J to the 60-day DL (clears up a 40-man spot...Balester anyone?)

Caps make qualifying offers to Brooks Laich, Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr and Boyd Gordon. Also mentioned: the 08-09 season salary cap will be $56.7 mil. The Caps have $37.6 mil tied up in contracts amongst 18 players already, so that leaves them about $19 mil of room to sign the 5 mentioned above, plus Huet and Fedorov if they so choose. Here are what I think the boys in red, white and blue will end up making (rough figures, mostly guesses and based on the comments from Japers' Rink's "Rink Wraps"):

Fedorov: range of $2 mil/1 year to $3 mil/1 year. We'll settle in the middle for $2.5 mil.
Fehr: range of $900k/1 year to $1.95 mil/2 years ($975k average). I'd bet on $925k.
Gordon: I'll just make one spot guess: $925k/1 year.
Green: range of $20 mil/5 years ($4 mil average) to $33 mil/6 years ($5.5 mil average). Because he's most likely to get a big offer, I'll go with the max at $5.5 mil. He could get offered $6 mil/year or more in FA, but I doubt the Caps match that, mainly because it would base more than 1/4 of their yearly salary in just 2 guys. Plus they would get draft pick compensation.
Huet: range of $10.5 mil/2 years ($5.25 mil average) to $24 mil/4 years ($6 mil average). I'll say he'll make $5.75 mil next year.
Laich: range of $1.75 mil/1 year to $5.5 mil/3 years ($1.83 mil average). $1.75 mil sounds like a nice round number for our figures.
Morrisonn: range of $3 mil/2 years ($1.5 mil average) to $5.25 mil/3 years ($1.75 mil average). We'll call it $1.6 mil next year.

That would put them at $18.65 mil among the 6 players. All I can say: It's gonna be close! But if they need extra room, they can always dump Pothier. Per the Caps.com article:

Pothier missed the second half of last season with a concussion, and his career is believed to be in jeopardy. There are two years remaining on his contract at $2.5 million per season, but the Caps would gain some salary cap relief if Pothier were physically unable to play during that period.

That's all for tonight. Check back in tomorrow, maybe something exciting will happen overnight.

UPDATE (1 minute after original post):
My boy Deron Washington was taken 59th overall in the NBA draft by the Detroit Pistons. I don't care about the NBA at all, but it's good to see him get a shot.

Here's where some other locals went:
Roy Hibbert (Georgetown)>>Toronto Raptors
Sean Singletary (University of Zima-drinking Brats that are Future Yuppies with Popped Collars...will be referred to in the future as "The University of Suck")>>Sacramento Kings
Patrick Ewing, Jr. (Georgetown)>>Sacramento Kings
James Gist (Maryland)>>San Antonio Spurs

If I were GM of the Washington Nationals

First of all, I would be the youngest GM of all time. But that's not important. I'm going to avoid a long intro (I'll save my good introductions for when I actually sit down and write a feature) and cut right to the chase.

There are 25 players on the Nationals' Active Roster, for those who don't know. Out of those 25, 6 should not be: Jesus Colome, Charlie Manning, Willie Harris, Ryan Langerhans, Rob Mackowiak and Ryan Zimmerman. Before you stop reading the post, I named Zimmerman because he needs to go on the DL to get everything (meaning his shoulder) together. It would be retroactive to his last game, 5/25, so he would only have another 8 days before he could return. I will also note that Harris will stay because they need him in the utility spot until Belliard's return, which could be soon.

For those of you who can't figure out how many players are on the Nationals' 40-man roster, I wonder how any people from Philly came across my blog (it's okay, they don't know I'm making fun of them. They can't read sentences that don't include "cheesesteak," "Utley," "E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!" or "f#$%"). But in all seriousness, the capacity of 40 players has been met. For many of my proposed moves (and there are many), a corresponding move must be made. Guys like Langerhans, Sanches, Manning and O'Connor should slip through very easily. Even Johnny Estrada could make it through (but he's on the DL)

Anyways, here is what I think would be best for the Nationals:

To Washington (ML)
1B/3B/OF Kory Casto (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)
OF Kenny Lofton (FA signing, must be added to 40-man roster)
OF Alex Escobar (from Columbus, must be added to 40-man roster)
SP Garrett Mock (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)
RP Zech Zinicola (from Harrisburg, must be added to 40-man roster)
RP Chris Schroder (from Columbus, already on 40-man roster)

To Columbus (AAA)
OF Ryan Langerhans (from Washington)
IF/OF Rob Mackowiak (from Washington)
RP Jesus Colome (from Washington)
RP Charlie Manning (from Washington)
RP Brian Sanches (from Washington)

To 15-Day DL
3B Ryan Zimmerman (from Washington)

Outrighted off of the 40-man roster
OF Ryan Langerhans (has been done before)
RP Jesus Colome
RP Charlie Manning
SP Mike O'Connor (has been done before, only if needed)
IF/OF Rob Mackowiak


Okay, to start the defense of some radical moves:
INFIELD
Zimmerman is hurt. He needs to go on the DL. There is no use rushing the franchise player during a season that the team is going nowhere. This is the reason for the Casto move. Boone is hitting, but he's 35 and needs a day off (and a day at 1B) here and there to keep going. Young is hitting .224. Casto didn't hit well (.130) in his stint in our Nation's Capital in 2007, but he certainly deserves another shot for 4 reasons: his age (26), his handedness (hits lefty), his batting average in AAA (.333) and the fact that he had exactly 0 AB's above AA when he made his ML debut.
Out of every 4 games,
Boone gets 2 starts at 3B and 1 at 1B.
Casto gets 2 starts at 3B.
Young gets 3 starts at 1B.
Sound fair?

OUTFIELD
With KKKKK-angerhans and MacKKKKKowiaKKKKK down and Escobar and Lofton up, the outfield would take a different shape. There is little doubt in my mind that Escobar deserves another shot at the Majors after tearing it apart in 2006 (.356/.394/.575). I'm not positive Lofton would accept the role I'm looking to put him in-mentor/4th OF, but he's been unemployed for a few months so he may bite. Someone needs to teach Lastings how to play CF, and I think Lofton can do it. With the OF hitting as poorly as it is, something needs to get in there and shake them up. I'm also willing to keep one of the KKKKK brothers up as a 5th OF/lefty off the bench and send down Dukes if playing time is an issue.

Out of every 5 games,
Milledge gets 3 starts in CF, 1 start in LF
Dukes gets 3 starts in RF
Pena gets 3 starts in LF
Lofton gets 2 starts in CF
Escobar gets 2 starts in RF and 1 in LF

If one of the KKKKK brothers stays and Dukes goes down to AAA, shift 1 of his starts to Lofton, 1 to Escobar and 1 to the remaining KKKKK brother.

PITCHING
This is where a lot of you are going to think I'm crazy. Why call up Mock when we have 5 solid starters? To be honest, we don't have 5 solid starters. We have 4 solid starters: Perez, Lannan, Redding and Bergmann. Then we have one, Shawn Hill, who scares us the night before his starts into thinking he's not pitching the next day and the night after his starts into thinking he's not pitching the next year.

It's time to turn Shawn Hill into a dominant reliever. He's got so many arm problems these days, there is no reason in my mind that we shouldn't turn him into something useful before he throws out his elbow and is out of professional baseball at 30 (see Patterson, John). Look at Hill's career splits. Over his career, he allows a .229/.286/.306 line against him for the first time opposing batters face him in a game. That inflates to .299/.364/.447 the second time around, and baloons to .282/.352/.492 for the third time around and after. Hill is ridiculously good in the first inning he pitches (.191/.248/.200 against) and pedestrian after that (opposing OPS' of .851, .806, .751, .792, .840 in innings 2-6, only 47 career PA against after 6 innings). With Jon Rauch pitching as great as he is, he's going to get dealt to a contender and we're going to need someone to step in to both the closer and set-up roles (trust me, I'm not counting out The Chief). Hill's chances of being something special are significantly better if he is converted into a reliever rather than staying as a starter.

So now that we've established Hill to the bullpen, who do we insert into the rotation? Look no further than the better of the Rizzo Diamondback Boys, Garrett Mock. His numbers are finally starting to match his good stuff (3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.5:1 K:BB ratio). He's already on the 40-man roster. Give the kid a shot.

I'm sure you know one of my call-ups, Chris Schroder. He's been up and down 3 times already this year, and is eligible to be brought up immediately assuming Zimmerman is placed on the DL (not a safe assumption in reality, however). The normal 10-day rule that states a player cannot be called up for the first 10 days after being optioned to the minors would not apply (that would coincidentally expire Monday) because Schroder would take the roster spot of a player put on the DL. Positions don't have to match (read more about the rule here) so Schroder gets the call. But he's actually getting the call to replace Brian Sanches. While Sanches has pitched decently well in his time in Washington (3.00 ERA, 6 K in 3 innings), Schroder proved with his stats last year (3.18 ERA, 15 BB, 43 K in 45 and 1/3 IP) that he can handle ML bats on a regular basis, while Sanches' 2007 stats with the Phillies (5.52 ERA, 12 BB, 9 K in 14 and 1/3 innings) proved pretty much nothing to help his case. Sanches should be an injury contingency plan, whereas Schroder should be an ML pitcher in almost all circumstances.

The other reliever who I want to call up is not a familiar face in DC. Zechry Zinicola, a 24 year old righty, was dubbed "on the fast track" for the majors until he was derailed with an average performance in AA last year (5.46 ERA in 57 and 1/3 innings). Now that he's got his walks down (2.84 per 9 innings this year as opposed to 5.62 per 9 last year), he seems to be back on the right track. With 26 K and only 19 hits allowed in his 25 and 1/3 innings split between A and AA ball this year (1.07 ERA!!), I think it's safe to say he deserves his shot in the bigs now. He replaces Colome, another guy who had control problems last year (3.68 BB/9). The difference? Colome's control problems are worse this year (5.70 BB/9, 59% of pitches thrown are strikes). Manny doesn't even trust him anymore, as Colome has thrown 1 inning in the last week. Send Colome down to rest his buttocks (sorry, couldn't resist...link is SFW, no worries) and get a handle on his live arm.

One last point: We don't need a lefty in the pen. Why not? Because none of the lefties we have in ML or AAA can get lefty batters out! O'Connor's career OPS against while facing left-handed hitters is .732. Chico's is .854. I can't find Manning's minor league splits, but seeing him give up homers to Adrian Gonzalez and Jody Gerut makes me want him to never pitch in the Majors again (unless it's against us).

Questions:
Can Mock be consistant?
Can Lofton teach Milledge CF?
Will any of these players get claimed if waived?
When are we going to FIRE LENNY?!?!?

Let me know if you have any thoughts on the subject.

BERGMANNIA part 2

Might we finally have the 5th piece to the puzzle?

Jason Bergmann has found more mitts (14 k) than hits (8) over the last two games (spanning 14 innings). He hasn't allowed any runs, and has walked a modest 5 opponents. What's interesting is the fact that he has more than halved his ERA in his last 2 starts, from 11.68 to 5.47. I guess that's what happens when you throw 14 scoreless innings after throwing 11 and 1/3 innings that were anything but scoreless.

With those recent goose-eggs thrown onto the board by Jason Bergmann, it would appear that the Nationals now have a pretty good rotation. At very worst, Bergmann is a good option in the 5 slot. Redding, the staff ace, isn't even giving up 7 hits per 9 innings and has a 6-3 record to go with his 3.16 era. Lannan is holding his own, with 5 performances of 1 run or less and 6 innings or more and a 3.40 era to boot. Perez is filling his spot nicely, keeping his ERA around 4.24 for the time being (and hitting .313!!).

Then we have our staff ace, Shawn Hill. If you look at that link, it's not Shawn Hill. It's Shawn Hill's replacement, Matthew Bryan Chico. This is where we go from pretty good to mediocre. We're back to the black hole in the 5th spot until Hill comes back (and I really hope it's just 1 start, because I don't know how much longer I can stomach the Fullerton, CA native). This is the life of a Nats fan...just when we get excited, something bad happens. But at least whatever bad happened didn't happen to Ryan Zimmerman, so the throngs of casual fans won't notice.

Concerning the bats (or lack thereof): I don't have answers. I am not a hitting coach, and I admit that I had a worse batting average in my last two years of organized baseball than Austin Kearns has right now (better OBP and SLG though...I was a Jack Cust/Adam Dunn prototype). But that's why we have hitting coaches and base coaches. Just like a soccer mom driving in her giant Expedition can't afford gas these days, the Nats can't afford to waste solid outings by their pitching staffs. And, in honor of the great Chris Needham of Capitol Punishment, I will end with this: FIRE LENNY!!1!!!!ONE!!!

Other note: click on "bats" for the gamer for the game from last night, and watch the "Guzman's throw" clip. It was #5 on SportsCenter's top plays!

...it pours

Gross. Even when we have a quality start by Shawn Hill, our bullpen blows the game. Good news: Shawn Hill pitched great (7 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 3 K, 0 BB), Aaron Boone went 3-4, a double short of the cycle (or maybe a triple...they said in the MASN broadcast it was ruled a double and an error) and Belliard hit a home run. Bad news: Ayala blew the game in the 8th and we couldn't recover.

It's really all Manny's fault. If he had batted Zimmerman 8th in the lineup, Zim would have hit a 2 out, 2 run walk-off shot. Instead, we had to settle for a Jesus Flores groundout to end the game. Sorry, had to try and look at from a lighter perspective, because these losses to the Marlins are making me depressed.

On another note, the Marlins only threw 95 pitches today. Lenny needs to preach patience to no end. We need to see more pitches, that's the bottom line. If he can't get the batters to do that, he should be fired.

No long post today. I'm too angry with this team to spend more time thinking about them. I'll instead spend that time celebrating Mother's Day by watching the Weather Channel with Mom.

You hate to say it, so I'll say it

The Nats are actually looking good right now. Sure, they lost two winnable games in a row. But the difference between now and before the pseudo-streak they're on is that they're staying close in games. Sure, they won't win every 1 or 2 run game, but they are at least giving themselves a chance to win. The Nats have lost 11 games this year by 3 or more runs, which is a pretty scary thought. But now that they've kept themselves within a few runs, they'll be able to hang with the big guns. As long as Lannan pitches the way he is (and, like I said before, I'm 100% happy with the 2 quality start, 1 implosion pattern he's on, because he puts us in position to win 2 of every 3 games he pitches), as long as Redding pitches the way he is, as long as Odalis pitches the way he is, and as long as Chico stays in the bullpen (had to throw that one in there), I think the Nats will be able to play near-.500 ball. Fundamentals are what it all comes down to, and I think this team has more figured out than we think.

Looking ahead at our next 7 games, the Nats could have some favorable pitching matchups. They will be facing Ricky Nolasco (6.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, facing Redding), Andrew Miller (7.96 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, facing O'Connor) and Nelson Figueroa (4.81 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, facing Odalis). I know these guys have potential, but as of now, they're hittable. We'll also have our two best pitchers (although Redding is arguably better than Lannan, we'll just say they're options 2a and 2b right now) facing the two best opposing pitchers: Shawn Hill facing Scott Olsen and John Lannan facing John Maine. Probables are not listed for the last two games of the Mets series, but it looks like they will be Tim Redding vs Mike Pelfrey (liking that matchup at this point of the season) and Johan Santana against O'Connor (crap!!). Right now I like our chances against Nolasco (3-1 vs us, but high ERA, high AVG against, some of the decisions may have been in relief), Miller (hasn't pitched against the Nats), Figueroa (outdueled by Lannan earlier this year only for Hanrahan to blow it in extras) and Pelfrey (has been hit hard by the Nats before this year, shut them down this year). Let's see if we can take those 4 games (and maybe a 5th in the Hill vs. Olsen game...and the Nats hit Maine hard, with 6 HR and a 5.21 ERA from 05-07, so anything could happen) and continue playing at or above .500 ball for the next week!

I just want to be better than the Orioles. Is that too much to ask?