Maybe Next Year? Part Four: The Pitching Rotation

Hopefully by now, you've read parts one, two and three.

Once again, what I'm trying to show all of you is that 1) The Nationals could (theoretically) be a .500 team next year and 2) They don't have to spend a whole lot of money to do it. They just have to spend that money in the right way. Responsibly. I'd like to point out again that I get all contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's crazy in-depth, accurate and (better yet), incredibly user friendly.

Without further ado, your 2009 Washington Nationals' pitching staff:
STARTING ROTATION
1) RHP Tim Redding (arbitration-eligible, ~$2 mil)
Redding is the "ace" of the Nats' staff filled with #3/4 pitchers. In 198 and 2/3 innings pitched for the Nats in 2007-08, Redding sports a 3.76 ERA and a 10-9 record. 11 of his 20 starts this year have been quality starts, but he's allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in all but 2 of his starts (and 3 or fewer in all but 5). The Nats are 15-5 in his starts. In reality, a team's "ace" is the guy who, when he pitches, gives the team the best chance to win. It's a tossup between Redding and Lannan in that category, but you can't really argue with W's. I know John Lannan gets 2.75 fewer runs per game in run support, but a 15-5 team record when Redding starts (compared with a 21-55 record in games he doesn't start) is pretty impressive.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 12-9, 32 GS, 183 IP, 3.68 ERA, 70BB/120K

2) LHP John Lannan (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Lannan is intriguing. He doesn't strike out many batters (4.41 K/9 for his career, 5.01 K/9 this season) and allows a decent number of baserunners (career WHIP of 1.344, 1.283 this year), yet still puts up decent numbers in terms of ERA (4.15 career ERA, 3.40 this year) and ERA+ (118 career ERA+, 125 this year). He doesn't throw particularly hard. But why bother arguing against results? The kid has the intangibles to pitch in the majors. He keeps the ball in the yard and goes out and gives you a quality start most times he's out there (13 of 18 starts this year were 6 innings or more with 3 earned runs or less). And somehow the Nats are still only 5-13 in games started by the 23-year-old lefty. Meh.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 8-12, 33 GS, 185 IP, 3.90 ERA, 65BB/95K

3) RHP Jason Bergmann (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Bergmann is about as intriguing as Lannan (to me, at least). Here's a guy who only started 21 of his 104 games in A+ or above (11 of which came in 2007-08, after reaching the big leagues). It appears that his time as a reliever stunted his endurance, as he falls apart after the 5th inning, with about a 90 OPS+ allowed over innings 1-5 (with 100 being a league-average pitcher) as opposed to about a 143 OPS+ allowed during innings 6-8 (which is probably better-sounding than what it really is, considering these are career numbers and include games he came in as a reliever). If we can get the Mann on a better strength and conditioning plan that allows him to pitch 6 effective innings each game rather than 5, we have ourselves another Tim Redding, just with better K/9 numbers (7.19 K/9 as opposed to Redding's 6.11). Here's to some more (and improved) BERGMANNIA in 2009! He's my breakout candidate.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 15-7, 33 GS, 197 IP, 3.42 ERA, 50BB/160K

4) LHP Oliver Perez (FA signing, $5 mil for 1 year)
Why not replace one lefthanded starter named O. Perez with a younger one? Oliver is equally intriguing (time to invest in a thesaurus, no?) as Bergmann and Lannan but has hit both peaks (2.98 ERA and 239 K in 196 innings pitched in 2004) and pits (6.55 ERA in 112 and 2/3 innings pitched in 2006) in his career already. Why is he worth picking up? He is having a season this year that looks average at best on paper (6-5 for a good team, 4.44 ERA) but also looks like an abberation if you search deeper. Perez's H/9 is actually better this year (7.58) than his career average (8.08) and last year's (7.78). He's just been a little wild, with career highs in HBP and WP at the ASB, and a little unlucky. His K's are a little bit down and his walks are a little bit up, but those things are correctable. This guy's got sick talent and is just going to be 27 at the beginning of next year. Guarantee him some money and innings and let him try and rebuild himself for a year under a new pitching coach. What's there to lose?
Realistic 2009 prediction: 13-8, 33 GS, 194 IP, 3.57 ERA, 85BB/205K

5) RHP Collin Balester (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Balester has the most talent in the system. We've seen flashes of it in the first 3 games, with a 100% ridiculous line of .154/.185/.154 against the first time through the lineup (comparable to Tim Redding's career hitting line of .145/.168/.173). But, unfortunately, baseball games are 9 innings rather than 6. And Balester allows a .387/.487/.710 line against during innints 4-6 (semi-comparable to Sammy Sosa's 64 HR 2001 season, where he hit .328/.437/.737). The sample size is small (3 games and 73 career batters faced), but Balester needs to be efficient later on in games next year just like Bergmann.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 6-8, 22 GS, 130 IP, 4.19 ERA, 45BB/100K

So there you have it...our $9.2 mil starting rotation (even less if Oliver isn't signed and the rotation spot goes to Shairon Martis, Tyler Clippard, Garrett Mock, etc.). Under my predictions, the staff will go 54-44 with about a 3.72 ERA. Wouldn't be too bad...hopefully the likes of those guys I just named above could fill in the extra 9 or so starts. Keep in mind that these predictions are based most on performance and not injury.

Be sure to check in tomorrow night for the bench, Tuesday night for the bullpen and sometime later this week with the wrapup of the series.

Answers to the mailbag

Here are my own answers to Bill Ladson's mailbag:

Is Aaron Boone going to get more playing time? He should.
-- Dean O., Winnipeg, MB.

Yes, but not for good reasons. As we all know, Johnson is out for a few more weeks, so Boone will spell young at 1B every once in a while. But now we hear that Zimmerman could miss more games so, unfortunately, Aaron Boone is going to be playing there. Not that Boone playing is a bad thing (as he's hitting very well), but I'd much rather see the face of the franchise manning the hot corner and batting 3rd. I'd say there's a 75% chance Boone gets shipped somewhere at the deadline a la Daryle Ward. San Francisco, perhaps?

It seems like after every game, there's an item about Lastings Milledge being careless or lackadaisical on the field. And all I hear from him are excuses. What is he still doing in center field?
-- Adam C., Atlanta, Ga.

I don't think he's being careless or lackadaisical. That would be Andruw Jones territory. Milledge simply is not very good at fielding the CF position at this point, as he misreads everything and ends up where the ball lands a second late, often letting up to let it fall. He's still in CF because we don't have any other options. Dukes could play there, but we can't play Pena in RF and Milledge's arm in RF isn't a good option either. When Kearns comes back (and if Dukes actually starts to hit), I can see Dukes becoming the CF and Milledge becoming the 4th OF (or being shipped to AAA to work on CF skills). I'm confident that Elijah Dukes is the team's long-term option in CF and Lastings Milledge will be a LF when it's all said and done.

Can we get some love for Tim Redding? What a warrior, but nobody talks about him. He's by far our best pitcher this year.
-- Scott C., Washington, DC

I've heard a lot of love for Redding about being the team's lone all-star pick (don't feel like searching for links, but I'm sure you've seen them anyways, including in Ladson's mailbag). I disagree with the premise that He is "by far our best pitcher this year," however.

John Lannan is almost as good, if not just as good, if not better than Redding this year. They have basically the same ERA (3.57 for Lannan, 3.59 for Redding...remember that 6 of the 7 runs Redding allowed here don't count against his ERA), similar K:BB ratios (2 for Lannan, 1.9 for Redding), similar ERA+ (118 for Lannan, 117 for Redding). Redding has a decent lead in WHIP (1.229 to Lannan's 1.397) but that could be easily attributed to a low BABIP (.228 to Lannan's .271). The biggest difference is W-L record, with Redding sitting at 6-3 to Lannan's 4-5. I'm not even going to get into it all, but look at each of their run support stats. Redding gets 4.6 runs a game, Lannan gets 3.1. Lannan has given up 2 runs or less in 60% of his starts, to Redding's 45%. Lannan has given up 3 runs or less in 70% of his starts, to Redding's 64%. I won't say Lannan is better, but to call Redding "by far our best pitcher this year" would not be accurate.

Acta and Washington management should be commended for their patience, but how much longer will it last?
-- Dean O., Winnipeg. MB

"As long as Acta is in the organization, the patience will be there." Agreed. If he didn't lose it over the blown "stolen base" call with Gabe Kapler in the 9th today, I don't see him losing it any time soon. His job isn't on the line and there are very low expectations, so he doesn't need to panic...he can afford to be patient.

I completely agree with Nationals' idea of building a strong farm system. However, the club needs to get somebody to make fans excited, and somebody who is proven. You can't keep getting guys hitting .100 with five RBIs in a month. They also can't keep bringing up young guys before they are ready. I think the Nationals must stop being stingy and at least sign one big-name free agent.
-- Adam H., Nazareth, Pa.

Who do you suggest they sign? You're a week late, bro, Piazza already retired! Who else...you want Bonds? Nobody wants Bonds for a reason. It's not the right time to suggest a big-name signing, but over the offseason I guess there are a few worth looking at: Teixeira, Furcal, Dunn, Sabathia, Perez, Sheets. These days you're almost better off developing your own young talent that may not be quite as good as these guys at their peaks rather than going 7 or 8 years on players, signing them to hundred million dollar deals that pay them almost $20 mil per year when they're past their prime at 38 or so. I hope they'll be in the running for one of those 6 guys this offseason, just to appease the fans. I'd take any of those guys on a 5 year deal.



One last note: BERGMANNIA CONTINUES!!!! Too bad the Nats' new guys (Sanches and Manning) couldn't hold a 2-0 lead and get Bergmann his second W of the year.

One more last note: Dukes has raised his batting average from .038 to .119 in the last 6 games. He's still behind Tim Redding, Matt Chico, Odalis Perez and Austin Kearns, but at least he's starting to defrost.

Okay, for real last note: Guzman has 5 HR this year, halfway to his career high of 10. BERGMANNIA+GUZMANIA=BERGUZMANIA!!!! Kinda like ManBearPig?

BERGMANNIA part 2

Might we finally have the 5th piece to the puzzle?

Jason Bergmann has found more mitts (14 k) than hits (8) over the last two games (spanning 14 innings). He hasn't allowed any runs, and has walked a modest 5 opponents. What's interesting is the fact that he has more than halved his ERA in his last 2 starts, from 11.68 to 5.47. I guess that's what happens when you throw 14 scoreless innings after throwing 11 and 1/3 innings that were anything but scoreless.

With those recent goose-eggs thrown onto the board by Jason Bergmann, it would appear that the Nationals now have a pretty good rotation. At very worst, Bergmann is a good option in the 5 slot. Redding, the staff ace, isn't even giving up 7 hits per 9 innings and has a 6-3 record to go with his 3.16 era. Lannan is holding his own, with 5 performances of 1 run or less and 6 innings or more and a 3.40 era to boot. Perez is filling his spot nicely, keeping his ERA around 4.24 for the time being (and hitting .313!!).

Then we have our staff ace, Shawn Hill. If you look at that link, it's not Shawn Hill. It's Shawn Hill's replacement, Matthew Bryan Chico. This is where we go from pretty good to mediocre. We're back to the black hole in the 5th spot until Hill comes back (and I really hope it's just 1 start, because I don't know how much longer I can stomach the Fullerton, CA native). This is the life of a Nats fan...just when we get excited, something bad happens. But at least whatever bad happened didn't happen to Ryan Zimmerman, so the throngs of casual fans won't notice.

Concerning the bats (or lack thereof): I don't have answers. I am not a hitting coach, and I admit that I had a worse batting average in my last two years of organized baseball than Austin Kearns has right now (better OBP and SLG though...I was a Jack Cust/Adam Dunn prototype). But that's why we have hitting coaches and base coaches. Just like a soccer mom driving in her giant Expedition can't afford gas these days, the Nats can't afford to waste solid outings by their pitching staffs. And, in honor of the great Chris Needham of Capitol Punishment, I will end with this: FIRE LENNY!!1!!!!ONE!!!

Other note: click on "bats" for the gamer for the game from last night, and watch the "Guzman's throw" clip. It was #5 on SportsCenter's top plays!

BERGMANNIA!!

I told you so (or hinted that Jason Bergmann deserved a second chance, one that Michael O'Connor might not get, although he probably deserves one for fighting it out in 2006 and coming back strong in the minors this year). There has been some discussion regarding whether or not Bergmann is going to be able to be a guy who can put up 6 or 7 strong innings each game. If you look at this year's numbers from his first stint in the majors this year, you'll see that he regularly imploded after the 4th inning (scroll down to "By Inning"). The problem with this, however, is that the sample size is only two starts (and three games). Looking at last year's numbers, Bergmann got somewhat stronger as the game went on. Its silly to look at his 7-9 inning stats because there were only 23 plate appearances in that timeframe, but look at Bergmann's line the third time around the lineup: .223/.286/.398 .684 OPS against. I'll take that line from any pitcher at any point in the game! So while he may have had problems going deep in his first 2 starts, I don't see this being a problem anymore. He's just not that kind of pitcher.

Other (non-BERGMANNIA!!) note: Nicky J is out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury. Up goes infielders' (mainly Zimmerman's) throwing errors, Dmitri and Boone's playing time...down goes Nicky J's trade value, team OBP, runs. This is where I really miss having Josh Whitesell on the team, as he's tearing up the PCL (and can field!!). Just like when Bowden waived Darrell Rasner to clear a spot for Matt Lecroy and shipped Jamey Carroll off to make room for Damian Jackson (or was it Royce Clayton? Either way, it makes me want to vomit), Bowden waived Whitesell to clear 40-man room for Ray King. Talk about getting value for your players (Disclaimer: Yes, I know Bowden has gotten value for his players before. I'm just saying this is not the case with Whitesell, Carroll and Rasner).