Nats notes

As expected, Kory Casto and Mike O'Connor were waived. Both cleared and will end up in Syracuse. Good for them, I'm sure both will see time in DC this summer. Also, Rule 5 pick Terrell Young will start the year on the 15-day DL with right shoulder inflammation. Young needs to spend 90 days on the active roster (the DL doesn't count) to stick with the Nats. I'd put it about 50-50 when injuries start to set in halfway through the year.

Now, all we're waiting on is word on who the 4 remaining relievers will be. Still have my money on Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Hinckley (although I think Hinckley should be replaced with Colome).

Now, here are a few links to share:

The Hardball Times takes a look at Shairon Martis (along with The Angels Angels' prospect Nick Adenhart). Definitely worth a look, some pretty charts and graphs and stuff there. The author, Harry Pavlidis, describes Martis' changeup as "top notch" and notes that "his slider may actually be three different pitches."

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs takes a look at some Nats prospects. Nothing earth-shattering, just some more "Zimmermann is awesome," "Detwiler regressed," and "the Nats' farm system sucks."

New additions to Nats Park: the statues of Hondo, Gibson and the Big Train are finished, 7-feet tall Racing President Bobbleheads, recycling bins, better signs, etc.

That's all I've got for now...still have another 1,000 or so words to write on Jane Cazneau. If you're interested in a mini-history lession, click here!

Ladson's Inbox

I guess big Bill has been saving questions up, so here's the second "Inbox" of the week!

 

With the glut of outfielders on the roster, who do you think has the best chance of getting traded? -- Derek C., Ottawa, Canada

Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns because they're an

yone else's for the taking. If either has a strong ST, I could see them being dealt (as in someone actually wanting them). Willie Harris, Lastings Milledge and Josh Willingham are all possibilities, too.

Was Dunn a Type A free agent, and did the Nationals have to give up a Draft choice for signing him? -- Phil L., Hershey, Pa.

(Ladson's answer): Dunn was not a Type A free agent because the D-backs didn't offer him arbitration. That means the Nationals will not lose a 2009 Draft pick.

(my addition): Imagine if they HAD offered him arbitration. We could have gotten him for like $3 mil a year.

With the addition of Dunn, do you think Ryan Zimmerman will have a breakout year in 2009? -- James C., Washington

(Ladson's answer): Here's what I think Zimmerman will do this season: .290 with 30 home runs and 110 RBIs.

Seriously? I love Zim, but he's not a 30 HR hitter. Put me down for .290, 25 HR, 45 doubles and 100 RBI. And I will not attribute this to Dunn for the most part, but rather to Zim's continued development.

What is the status of Dmitri Young? I can't find any information on him anywhere. -- Steve D., Hayden, Ind.

Via Facebook: 

Why aren't the Nationals trying to sign a pitcher like Pedro Martinez? He's at the end of his career, yes, but he could help the younger pitchers improve. 

-- David P., Boucherville, Quebec, Canada

I think signing Pedro would be a great addition-theres's no reason to believe he's got nothing left in the tank. More of an issue on injuries.

 

Everything I have been reading has Mike Hinckley set to be the main left-hander out of the bullpen. What does this mean for Mike O'Connor? 
-- Paul M., Vienna, Va.

O'Connor has been terrible in the majors. Do you really want him back?

You have mentioned that the organization is content with Harris as a reserve. If that's the case, who do you see as the leadoff hitter? 
-- Eddie T., New York

How the lineup should go:

Guzman-6
Johnson-3
Zimmerman-5
Dunn-7
Dukes-9
Milledge-8
Flores-2
Belliard/Hernandez/Harris-4

If Harris is starting, put him leadoff and move Guzman down to 8th.

If Johnson starts this season and is healthy and plays at the expectations people thinks he can, will he be back in 2010? 
-- Juan F., Alexandria, Va.

That's a good question. I would tend to doubt it. I expect the Nats to put Dunn at 1B long-term (as in 2010).

 

BERGMANNIA!!

I told you so (or hinted that Jason Bergmann deserved a second chance, one that Michael O'Connor might not get, although he probably deserves one for fighting it out in 2006 and coming back strong in the minors this year). There has been some discussion regarding whether or not Bergmann is going to be able to be a guy who can put up 6 or 7 strong innings each game. If you look at this year's numbers from his first stint in the majors this year, you'll see that he regularly imploded after the 4th inning (scroll down to "By Inning"). The problem with this, however, is that the sample size is only two starts (and three games). Looking at last year's numbers, Bergmann got somewhat stronger as the game went on. Its silly to look at his 7-9 inning stats because there were only 23 plate appearances in that timeframe, but look at Bergmann's line the third time around the lineup: .223/.286/.398 .684 OPS against. I'll take that line from any pitcher at any point in the game! So while he may have had problems going deep in his first 2 starts, I don't see this being a problem anymore. He's just not that kind of pitcher.

Other (non-BERGMANNIA!!) note: Nicky J is out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury. Up goes infielders' (mainly Zimmerman's) throwing errors, Dmitri and Boone's playing time...down goes Nicky J's trade value, team OBP, runs. This is where I really miss having Josh Whitesell on the team, as he's tearing up the PCL (and can field!!). Just like when Bowden waived Darrell Rasner to clear a spot for Matt Lecroy and shipped Jamey Carroll off to make room for Damian Jackson (or was it Royce Clayton? Either way, it makes me want to vomit), Bowden waived Whitesell to clear 40-man room for Ray King. Talk about getting value for your players (Disclaimer: Yes, I know Bowden has gotten value for his players before. I'm just saying this is not the case with Whitesell, Carroll and Rasner).

When it rains...

Well you know that Fish thrive in water. But did they really have to score 11 on one of our feel-good stories, local kid Mike O'Connor? Did Andrew Miller, Taylor Tankersley and Matt Lindstrom really have to hold us to 3 hits tonight?

We were apparently spoiled by a pseudo-streak against the Cubs, Braves and Pirates so much that many of us actually expected results against the Marlins. All I've got to say: watching the last two games seriously sucked. The only good things tonight: Rauch had 1 inning, 0 runs, 0 hits, 2 K. Lopez was 2/4. That's it...seriously. At least in last night's 7-3 loss, we saw 3 multi-hit games (Guzman, Johnson, Milledge), an extra base hit (Guzman's double) and 3 shutout innings by Matt Chico and Joel Hanrahan.

Let's just hope this doesn't give anyone a reason to throw Matt Chico back into the rotation. Give Bergmann another shot. Give Balester a shot. Please get rid of one of these lefties who can't pitch! Convert them into LOOGYs or something.

UPDATE-MAY 11, 7:40 PM
It appears my wish came true, with Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times (via Capitol Punishment) reporting that O'Connor is being sent down and Chris Schroder will be recalled in his place. Zuckerman also notes that the move may be temporary, as O'Connor's rotation spot needs to be filled. It all depends on whether or not the team is willing to throw Matt Chico back into the rotation already or if they'll instead call upon Jason Bergmann or one of the pitching prospects such as Balester, Mock, etc.

You hate to say it, so I'll say it

The Nats are actually looking good right now. Sure, they lost two winnable games in a row. But the difference between now and before the pseudo-streak they're on is that they're staying close in games. Sure, they won't win every 1 or 2 run game, but they are at least giving themselves a chance to win. The Nats have lost 11 games this year by 3 or more runs, which is a pretty scary thought. But now that they've kept themselves within a few runs, they'll be able to hang with the big guns. As long as Lannan pitches the way he is (and, like I said before, I'm 100% happy with the 2 quality start, 1 implosion pattern he's on, because he puts us in position to win 2 of every 3 games he pitches), as long as Redding pitches the way he is, as long as Odalis pitches the way he is, and as long as Chico stays in the bullpen (had to throw that one in there), I think the Nats will be able to play near-.500 ball. Fundamentals are what it all comes down to, and I think this team has more figured out than we think.

Looking ahead at our next 7 games, the Nats could have some favorable pitching matchups. They will be facing Ricky Nolasco (6.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, facing Redding), Andrew Miller (7.96 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, facing O'Connor) and Nelson Figueroa (4.81 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, facing Odalis). I know these guys have potential, but as of now, they're hittable. We'll also have our two best pitchers (although Redding is arguably better than Lannan, we'll just say they're options 2a and 2b right now) facing the two best opposing pitchers: Shawn Hill facing Scott Olsen and John Lannan facing John Maine. Probables are not listed for the last two games of the Mets series, but it looks like they will be Tim Redding vs Mike Pelfrey (liking that matchup at this point of the season) and Johan Santana against O'Connor (crap!!). Right now I like our chances against Nolasco (3-1 vs us, but high ERA, high AVG against, some of the decisions may have been in relief), Miller (hasn't pitched against the Nats), Figueroa (outdueled by Lannan earlier this year only for Hanrahan to blow it in extras) and Pelfrey (has been hit hard by the Nats before this year, shut them down this year). Let's see if we can take those 4 games (and maybe a 5th in the Hill vs. Olsen game...and the Nats hit Maine hard, with 6 HR and a 5.21 ERA from 05-07, so anything could happen) and continue playing at or above .500 ball for the next week!

I just want to be better than the Orioles. Is that too much to ask?

Thursday's Roundup

Lo Duca and Estrada to the DL, Flores up from AAA and Dukes back from the DL.
Estrada, first of all, should never have been reinstated from the DL, mainly because he never should have been signed at all. He is awful. He doesn't run out base hits, can't take a walk, hits in to a ton of double plays...and he couldn't even throw the ball when they reinstated him from the DL! They need to cut him, he's worthless.
Amateur Fighter Paul Lo Duca is going to be out 4-6 weeks. I think during this time, Nieves should start 3 games for every Flores game until he falters, and then they should go in cycles of either 2 games for Nieves, 2 for Flores, or 3 apiece.
I still think Rob Macowiak needs to be cut immediately. Sign Brad Wilkerson or Jacque Jones, at least they can play good defense and hit righties. Wilkerson would fit best, in my opinion, as he can take over at first if Johnson gets traded (and I can reuse my Wilkerson jersey/t-shirt thing).

Also, O'Connor to the rotation, Chico to the bullpen. All I have to say: It's about freakin' time! Chico needs to be sent down to AAA to learn how to throw strikes. Pure speculation is that they want him to stay up with St. Claire, but just as I said, that's simply speculation. They don't have any lefties in the pen besides Chico, though, so it could be hard from a management standpoint to send him down, but I still think it's in the team's best interest to keep a worthwhile reliever in the pen, because Chico can't get lefties out either.

I got to go on a tour of Nats Park today. It was really nice, and a fun tour. It's always cool go to in the dugout and bullpen and on the warning track. Wish we could have gone in the clubhouse, though, instead of just hanging on the outside. If you're looking to take the tour, I'd say it's worth the $15 (although my tour was paid for by someone else).

Now, my first Caps rant:
RESIGN FEDOROV!!
RESIGN HUET!!
RESIGN GREEN!!

Saturday's Roundup

First off, I find it incredibly ironic that one of the NFL's most respected players, Marvin Harrison, is in some trouble. Even though things are pointing at this time toward the fact that he's not responsible, I still find it hard to believe that he could have even gotten himself in that position in the first place.

The Nats got creamed yesterday and pulled out a close one today, both against the Pittsburgh Pirates. John Lannan got roughed up in last night's 11-4 loss, allowing 6 runs (5 earned) in only 3 innings. If he continues his 2:1 ratio of quality starts to complete implosions, he should be safe on the Nats' staff. His 3:2 K:BB ratio is a bit frightening at this point (although it's better than last year's atrocity of 10 K to 17 BB). At least he's getting a chance unlike last year where guys like Levale Speigner and Jerome Williams got way too many starts.

Matt Chico pitched almost as bad today, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4 and 1/3 innings. Unlike Lannan, however, Chico has only one quality start for the entire year (which makes this headline, "Nats turn to Chico for a quality start" incredibly ironic. That's like my girlfriend turning to me for fashion advice). If Michael O'Connor can bounce back from his poor performance last night (4 runs allowed in 3 and 2/3 innings in mopup work), I can see him taking over Chico's spot in the rotation while Chico trades spots in Columbus with Chris Schroder, who is wreaking havoc on AAA, with 18 K and only 1 run allowed in 10 and 1/3 innings pitched.

Don't look now, but Joel Hanrahan is bouncing back from a bad start to the year. In his last 7 and 1/3 innings (including today), he's allowed only 2 runs with 13 strikeouts and only 3 walks. It's also funny that Bill Ladson of MLB.com wrote this in the midst of Hanrahan's hottest stretch of the season. The guy's only 26 years old, and has a ton of potential (that he was light years away from last year). He's still adjusting to life in the bullpen, as this is his first year there. The team is using him mostly in blowouts (as the team is 1-12 when he pitches, only 5 games of which the winner was within 3 runs of the loser), but keep an eye on him in your fantasy leagues anyways (if anyone already has their grips on him, they must REALLY be hurting for K's) and look to pick him up if he keeps this stretch of solid, strikeout-filled pitching up.

One last Nats note: Jonah Keri of ESPN's Page 2 wrote this column while sipping on some ice cold Haterade. Inside, he names the Nats as one of five "failure dynasties" (along with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City). It's interesting, because these teams are all somewhat on the up. The Rays rebuilt their farm system and are finally looking to reap the benefits this year with a finish around .500. The Orioles started hot and guys like Adam Jones and Matt Weiters show a ton of promise. Pittsburgh has some chips to move at the deadline, including Xavier Nady, and could come away with some prize prospects to make up for some bad drafting in the early 21st century. Kansas City is a bit of a disappointment this year (thats what you get for relying too much on Jose Guillen!!) but has some guys with unlimited potential like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, not to mention some of their pitching prospects. The Nats are on the up as well, completely rebuilding their farm system with some guys they've gotten through the draft (Marrero, Willems, Smoker, Detwiler, Burgess, McGreary, etc.) and through trades (Martis, Mock). The problem is, what if none of these guys plan out (not just for the Nats, but for any team)? Then you're stuck in the perrenial rut of the "failure dynasty." While I hate to admit it, unless the Nats prove something in the next few years, they might need more than a big FA signing and a new-ish stadium to get butts in seats. The one thing I disagree with: Keri says the Nats won't have a winning season until 2012. I think that they should be able to hit .500 by 2010.