2 Nats that could surprise us in 2010

Everyone is undefeated in Spring Training, even the Nationals! But that does not mean that everyone is projected to have a great season. Today, I'll take a look at two Nats that I think can outperform their projections in 2010: Scott Olsen and Jesus Flores.

Scott Olsen, LHSP

Olsen had a rough 2009, with an awful 6.03 ERA in just 62 and 2/3 innings pitched. His season ended in July when he had labrum surgery and he claims to be back toabout 80% of his normal form. I think Olsen can more than challenge the 4.95 ERA and 119 IP projection that comes from an average of the Bill James, Marcel and CHONE projections.

• He's hungry. On Friday, he told Dave Shenin of the Washington Post, "Last year was horrible. I have a lot to prove to the organization and to people in baseball in general." It's a little bit cliche, but I don't think you can ever underestimate an athlete looking to prove themselves.
• The Nats' defense has improved. Hopefully, we will see Adam Kennedy and Nyjer Morgan step in with full seasons of above average defense that will replace the likes of Ronnie Belliard and Alberto Gonzalez at 2B, and Elijah Dukes and Willie Harris in CF. In addition, Adam Dunn will play 1B exclusively. For somebody that doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters (projections range between 5.54 K/9 and 6.77 K/9), the defense behind you is important.
• Olsen is still young enough to rebound. Even if Olsen's arm issues were not a major reason behind his regression. I still think he can rebound in 2010. He's just 26 years old; if he puts in enough effort in the weight room and in Spring Training to get his fastball velocity back to 90-91 mph, I think he'll be alright. It's far from a guarantee, but I think Olsen has a higher chance of bouncing back to even a 4.50 ERA, 180 IP #4 starter than people give him credit for.

Jesus Flores, C

Flores is also coming back from a shoulder injury in 2009, but he did play very well while healthy. While the current state of his shoulder is in question, and I definitely don't think any more than 90 games can be expected out of Flores this year, I think the average projection of .264/.325/.422 is a little bit conservative. Here's why:

• He hit .301/.371/.505 last year. While I believe in the statement "don't always believe in a small sample size," his numbers show that he chased less pitches outside the strike zone than in 2008 (O-Swing % down from 36.9% in 2008 to 34.0% in 2009) and made better contact across the board (contact % up from 71.8% in 2008 to 78.3% in 2009). I don't necessarily think his 10.4 BB% or .204 ISO will hold up, but I don't think it's crazy to expect a BB% in the 7's or an ISO around .175. My FanGraphs Fan Prediction of Flores ended up with a .269/.324/.444 line and I'll stick with that.
• The addition of Pudge Rodriguez will be beneficial for Flores as well. Sure, he got to play a little bit along side veteran catchers like Paul Lo Duca and Brian Schneider, but neither of them are Pudge Rodriguez. Here's a good quote from an article about Pudge from this afternoon: "[Rodriguez] warmly greeted veterans and rookies alike, some youngsters awed that a future Hall of Famer was introducing himself to them. 'Years ago, I was watching that guy on TV and now I'm playing on the same team,' beamed fellow catcher Jesus Flores."

For the record, I was going to include Elijah Dukes on this list as well. I decided against it because I think the whole Natmosphere sees him rebounding from a lousy 2009. Put me down for around a .265/.360/.450 line for Dukes and we'll leave it at that.

Inbox and Thoughts

I'm going to start today with this week's Inbox and move along to some other thoughts afterwards.

How good can outfielder Elijah Dukes be if he plays up to his potential?
-- Jake T., Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.
Dukes can be a perennial All-Star if he plays up to his potential. He can hit 30 HR and steal 20 bases while reaching base consistently and playing decent defense. But I do believe the likelihood of Dukes playing up to his potential is waning each year; he still hasn't proven he can hit consistently well on a major league level.

If they stay relatively healthy, are the Nationals possible playoff contenders or will they finish below .500?
-- Jeff H, Washington
Possible? Sure. Probable? No. The Nats need both health and luck to finish .500 or above.

I notice that you get a lot of heat for getting on Adam Dunn's defense. How do feel about the criticism you get for it?
-- Ken J., Washington
Ladson doesn't have anything to apologize about. Dunn's defense is below average at 1B and worse in the outfield. He has to work extremely hard to get his glove in line this year, or else the Nats could be in big trouble with Zimmerman and Desmond throwing to him at 1B.

How many at-bats do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get this season? I really think he wants to make a run at 3,000 hits, and I'm sure the Nats are aware of this.
-- Dave, New York
Wait...Ladson says “Jesus Flores will be out for quite some time after right shoulder surgery.” ACK! He'll still be out for quite some time once the season starts? If that's the case, the Nats need more than Wil Nieves and Jamie Burke to fill Flores' void.
I do agree with Ladson that the Nats need to ease Flores into things when he's healthy enough to play. No need in rushing him back; I'd rather see him play the whole span of a season, even if he ends up playing in fewer games total. Think long-term with Jesus.

Now on to the actual question: 400. I don't think he'll be in position to hit 3,000 hits until 2012, if he's still around.

I wanted to know what your thoughts were about possibly bringing in Gary Sheffield as a big bat off the bench for the Nationals?
-- David H., Laytonsville, Md.
Ick. I don't know what is with people asking about washed up veterans in the mailbag, but it's starting to get old (just like Gary Sheffield). His bat is declining fast and he's even more of a DH than Adam Dunn.

Now on to some bullet-point thoughts:

• I would like to thank DC Sports Report for their yearly review of Nationals blogs (check out last year's list here). I'm proud that their authors bumped me up from a 3 star blog last year to 4 this year. All of the blogs I link to regularly got at least 4 stars as well, so congrats to NFA, NationalsFanboyLooser, FJB and Nats News Network and everyone else!
• MLBTR has the current list of borderline roster players across the league that are out of options. The Nats have one of the longest lists, with at least 9 players: Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Chico, Clippard, Morse, Slaten, Walker and Willingham. My guess is that 7 of the 9 stick, with Chico and Slaten getting outrighted (and I'd guess that they'd accept being sent to AAA because they have as good of a chance at getting back to the bigs with the Nats as with anyone else).
• Nationals Journal has their guess at the Opening Day 25 man roster posted. Here's mine (so far):

PITCHERS (12): Batista, Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Capps, Clippard, Lannan (Opening Day starter), Marquis (#2), Olsen (#3), Speier, Stammen (#4) and Walker.

I think Mock will be the #5 starter but he won't be needed until April 19, so I think they'll carry an extra reliever in Batista/Speier until then. When they're ready to call Mock up, they'll DFA whichever of the two is doing worse.

CATCHERS (2): Nieves and Rodriguez (OD Starter at C).

Like Chico, I'm not willing to bet that Flores will be around for Opening Day. I certainly hope he will, but I'm not expecting it.

INFIELDERS (6): Desmond, Dunn (OD Starter at 1B), Guzman (OD Starter at SS), Kennedy (OD Starter at 2B), Morse, Zimmerman (OD Starter at 3B).

Yes, I do think the Nats will break camp with Desmond on the 25-man roster. No, I do not think he will be an Opening Day starter. And no, I do not think having him on the bench is a good idea. I think that this would be a decent distribution of PT for what it's worth: Desmond-30% at 2B and 40% at SS, Guzman-60% at SS and Kennedy-70% at 2B. Obviously not scientific, but I think something like that would be feasible.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Dukes (OD Starter at RF), Duncan, Harris, Morgan (OD Starter at CF), Willingham (OD Starter at LF).

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Chris Duncan makes the squad on Opening Day. His lefthanded bat certainly helps his cause.

2010 Roster Building-Catchers

Last year, I tried a "who should we go after?" series, begging the Nationals to spend some money to field a competitive team. In the bats edition, I suggested signing Adam Dunn and Mark Ellis (but penciled Austin Kearns in as my #5 hitter and projected him to hit .270/.360/.470...d'oh!). In the starting rotation edition, I suggested signing Oliver Perez and guessed that Tim Redding and Jason Bergmann could sustain 30+ games started with ERA's under 4. Double d'oh!

Now that I am a year older and (hopefully) wiser, I've devised a new plan for the Nats. The hitting is here, but they need to come up with pitching, ASAP. But to buy me some time to figure out the pitching (easier said than done), we'll go 1 position each day, starting with catchers. Follow along with the series here.

CATCHERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Jesus Flores and Josh Bard

Other possibilities in the organization: Wil Nieves

This assumes Flores' health (never a safe assumption). Bard is more valuable than Nieves off of the bench to me because he can hit (and specifically, switch hit), so I'd rather keep him. Also, Nieves should still have options left so the Nats can keep him to start in AAA with no problems.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): None. Jumping from A-ball to ML is too far of a leap for Derek Norris, especially given his issues with passed balls.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Brian Schneider. He's been horrid with the bat this year (.189 batting average, .200 BABIP), but he's outperforming his career averages in walk and strikeout rates as well as isolated power. He is still a great defensive catcher, however, with consistently good CS% and very few errors and passed balls. He could come at quite a bargain this offseason, and I'd rather the Nats go into 2010 with him backing up Jesus than either Bard or Nieves to be honest.

2009 production by Nats catchers to date: .259/.315/.364, 8 HR, 43 R, 60 RBI

2010 projection: Much, much better than 2009 offensively. Even if Flores doesn't peak offensively next year, they will still improve, but I expect Flores to hit at least .265/.325/.440 or so. Bard will likely improve as well, as he is hitting well below his career averages but with similar rate stats and that awful groin injury. If Schneider were to come aboard, he would almost positively hit better than the .189/.272/.318 garbage he's put up so far in 2009.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Inbox

It's Ladson inbox time!

What's the deal with Strasburg? Will the Nationals sign him?
-- Jeff G., Esperance, N.Y.

Without a doubt, yes.

How do you think Adam Dunn is doing at first base right now?
-- Yu-Hung S., Chiayi, Taiwan

He's better than I expected he would be...I'll take him over Dmitri. Still would like to see Willingham get some PT there as well, though, because he might end up being a good defensive 1B rather than the liability that Dunn still is.

The Nationals have been a totally different team after the All-Star break. How has Jim Riggleman changed the attitude and approach of the ballclub?
-- Asher K., Birmingham, Ala.

I'm not going to lie-I'm a fan of managers like Riggleman rather than Acta. It seemed like nobody cared about losing when Acta was around...now the players seem to me like they're more into games and are enjoying winning more than before.

I was surprised by your answer that sticking with Austin Kearns too long was former manager Manny Acta's worst move, even though I totally agree. Weren't you the first to defend him all the time, saying that he was a superstar and could hit 40 homers?
-- Alex C., Montreal

"I never said Kearns was a superstar and could hit 40 homers. I often complimented Kearns for his work ethic. Last year, for example, it always stuck out because there were players on that team who didn't give it their all."

I looked into this and Ladson's telling the truth as far as I can tell. He once said "There is no question that he must produce with the bat this year. I would like to see him hit 35 home runs and drive in 110 runs. I've been told many times by members of the Nats' front office that Kearns is the club's second-best player behind Ryan Zimmerman. Now it's time for Kearns to put up Zimmerman-type stats." I think people misconstrued that to be a prediction rather than the challenge it looks like in retrospect.

How much longer do the Nationals have Nyjer Morgan under contract? I think he's the answer in center field and in the leadoff spot. He could contribute for many years in D.C.
-- Chris M., Springfield, Va.

As Ladson noted, he can be auto-renewed for 2 more years and then is arb-eligible for 3 years after that...so he's ours for quite a while.

I have a great admiration for Bard for playing in such pain. But why do the Nats keep playing him when he is obviously injured?
-- Roy H., Fredericksburg, Va.

They don't really have another option to call up, so I guess they're just doing what they can with what they have. If he says he can play, who are they to tell him no?

I think the Nationals have a nice young core of young starting pitchers. If the Nats could add a veteran through free agency this offseason, who would be a good fit?
-- Bryan A., Fairfield, Conn.

John Lackey, Jason Marquis and Randy Wolf are 3 guys who stick out to me as reasonable candidates. MLBTR has a list of 2010 free agents here.

I was wondering the status of catcher Jesus Flores. How is he doing in his rehab?
-- Roy H., Charleston, S.C.

In his NJ interview from late July, Flores sounded very gung-ho about being back for Winter League, but didn't sound like he would be back this year...so prepare for more Bard/Nieves.

And all I have to say on ZNN-crap. We're pulling for you, Jordan...we'll be ready for you in ST 2011.

Some things to think about

First of all, I don't think the combination of Elijah Dukes/Jesus Flores hitting the DL is the reason for Dunn's sudden sputtering. It's not like he could keep up his 1.100 OPS pace all year. This is baseball, and you can't blame every slump on something. Even the best of the best fail between 6 and 7 times out of 10.

Concerning Nick Johnson-I agree with FJB wholeheartedly. Don't. Overpay. For. Relief. Pitching. Yeah, our bullpen sucks. But in both our 2009 plan (the plan in which our infield doesn't get 4000 throwing errors due to Dunn at 1B) and our long-term plan (Delcarmen is arbitration-eligible after this season and will hit FA after 2012), the deal wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Trading him for a reliever is the last thing we should do-get some high risk, potentially high reward prospects for him (or fleece somebody out of some low risk, high reward prospects) and do with that. It's really not worth it for us to try and make a "patch" when there is no feasible way for us to compete in 2009.

And nobody wants Danny Almonte, just like in 2006 when nobody wanted Jeffrey Maier. I'd tend to think it would be worth the publicity stunt come the 40th round or so, but I could be wrong.

3 Game Sweep

DC teams took New York City by storm today, with the Caps dominating the Rags, the Nats crushing the Mets and DC United scoring 2 goals in the 90th minute to pull out a 3-2 victory.

In terms of the Caps, they've stolen all momentum from the series. They have a huge advantage in game 7 in terms of mojo and home field advantage. They have to win it.

The Nats looked good (on GameDay) today, with 5 and 1/3 strong innings from ZNN, homers by Flores and Kearns and a nice day by Justin Maxwell out of the leadoff spot. Also, I think it's safe to punch Cintron's ticket to Syracuse when Guz is back.

Such a good ending to a pretty fun weekend, with the NFL draft and such. Hopefully the DC teams can keep it up in the near future.

EDIT-Like clockwork, Shawn Hill to the DL.

2008-09 Winter League Conclusions

Originally, I was going to merge this post with a Spring Training post, but instead decided to do them separately. Here are 6 guys that stuck out (or in two cases, struck out) to me:

Risers

IF Anderson Hernandez (.338/.390/.489)

Anderson has made obvious improvements lately, even though I rarely admit it. He'll still never armount to much of anything with the bat, but he's started doing something pretty valuable for a career .232 hitter: not swinging. His walk % at all levels in 2008 (7.4 % in AAA, 11% in ML and 8% in the Dominican Winter Leauge/Caribbean Series) was much better than at any point since 2004, the last time he broke 6% at any level. His K % is still higher than I want, but that improved as well. For Hernandez-as well as anyone else, really-you're just looking for a continuation of the progress made in the 2008 regular season.

IF Ronnie Belliard (.307/.378/.534)

During the regular season, Belliard was phenomenal between DL stints, with a .900 OPS. His season was cut short in early September, so all I wanted was some at-bats. He had just about 100 PA in his winter league and hit well, so it was a success.

OF Justin Maxwell (.220/.400/.455)

Maxwell was only a little unlucky in terms of BABIP and saw K numbers skyrocket, so the .220 batting average isn't encouraging. He was, however every bit as good in terms of walks as he was bad in terms of K's. With career minor league K and BB %'s of 26% and 11% respectively, his 29% K% and 22% BB% in Winter League ball don't look all that bad. And, he didn't get hurt!

IF Ian Desmond (.267/.364/.525)

Desmond's percentages improved as well. His 25% K% was significantly better than his 37% career average and his 14% BB% was a little bit better than his career minor league average of 12%. Hope that this year he can match that BB% rather than the 7.5% he's put up at AA so far in his career.

Fallers

C Jesus Flores (.247/.295/.412)

His lack of plate discpline is really quite alarming. He needs to walk more than 6% of the time everywhere, even if he's playing high schoolers.

OF Edgardo Baez (.238/.262/.288)

He isn't really much of a prospect anyways, but getting blown away by Puerto Rican Winter League pitchers isn't going to help that either. Seriously, a 34% K% and 4% BB% in a league where Ben Grezlovski put up a 3.20 ERA?

If you want to check out complete stats for Nats in Winter Leagues, click here.

Inbox

Because blogging > studying! Here's your Inbox:

Free agent Pedro Martinez would win some games and draw fans in Washington. The Nationals could use a tested starter. Any thoughts?
-- Kyle S. Arlington, Va.

Martinez is the type of veteran the Nats SHOULD sign. He's an ex-star (unlike Paul Lo Duca, who was just an ex-decent player). His velocity is apparently back, his pitches are moving well...he would be a great fit and could teach our guys something.

I saw Ivan Rodriguez in the World Baseball Classic, and he looks impressive. He has not signed with a Major League team yet. Would the Nationals be interested in him as a mentor to Jesus Flores and a backup catcher?
-- Raul T., Arlington, Va.

Along with Pedro, I think Pudge would be a good signing, but for defensive reasons. Like Ladson said, however, it depends on whether or not he'd be willing to accept a backup/split role. I don't believe Flores is going to be able to catch a full season successfully at this point...no basis, just a feeling. Plus, we could use a catcher who is famous for catching would-be base stealers to make them think twice when running on Daniel Cabrera.

It is exciting to think that in the not too distance future, the Nationals are going to have John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg leading this starting pitching staff for years to come.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

It is exciting, but there are no guarantees. Lannan relies a lot on pinpoint control and changing speeds, something that is near impossible to be compeltely consistent on through a career. Zimmermann and Strasburg have never thrown above AA before, so they aren't sure things either. All three (and Balester and Martis, too) have a wealth of talent. It's up to our coaching staff to try and corral this talent and mold some awesome pitchers. Pray for no injuries as well.

What will the Nats do with their crowded outfield? Obviously, Austin Kearns or Elijah Dukes will not accept a backup role.
-- Michael R., St. John's, Newfoundland

I think Willingham will be dealt. I also think Kearns will accept a backup role if asked (or at least a "start 2 of every 4 days" sort of deal). With Johnson being Johnson and Dukes being Dukes (and Willingham being Willingham), I think injuries might sort things out.

I would like to see the Nationals acknowledge earlier Washington teams rather than the Montreal Expos. Surely, Washington fans prefer to think of a team history that includes Walter Johnson, Bucky Harris and Frank Howard, rather than one featuring Andre Dawson, who never played a game in Washington.
-- Larry F., Gaithersburg, Md.

Unfortunately, the Twins and Rangers "own" the franchise records, per se. Anything involving The Big Train and Hondo would have to be filed under "Washington DC baseball records" instead of "Nationals Franchise Records." Technicality, yes, but it's tacky to take a team from a city and then pretend like they never existed.

Bonus: newcomer Julian Tavarez compares the Nats to Jennifer Lopez and Josh Towers and Justin Maxwell will not make it past the next roster cut tomorrow.

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Doubletake

I've got good news and better news (assuming everyone wants a better draft pick next year, that is): Lo Duca is not only returning on Tuesday, but he's going to get some PT in LF. This is where the Scooby Doo picture comes in. Awuhhhhh?

According to Ladson, Lo Duca last played outfield and first base in 2004 with the Dodgers. Just because he played there when the Dodgers were trying to boost his value after he got off the 'roids (sound similar to what's going on now?) doesn't make it right! If you recall, Lo Duca pitched to David Wright in the 2006 Home Run Derby. Since he has pitching experience only 2 seasons ago (as opposed to outfield experience 4 seasons ago), are we going to trot him out there every 5 days? Do we need to even bother calling up Garrett Mock or Collin Balester or whoever comes up next?

Meh. Lo Duca will be about as useful with an outfielder's glove as I would be with a gorilla suit.

The only good thing to come out of this is that while Lo Duca racks up innings at 1B, LF and DH, Flores and Nieves will also continue to catch. Next time we need a call-up, hope that one of Paulie or Wil has heated up and move them for somebody's 2006 18th round draft pick to clear room.

The root of our problems

It's pretty obvious that the Nats have an awful offense right now. They've scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 14 games and 1 or less in 6 of their last 7.

What continues to baffle me is Manny Acta's misuse of the batting order. He finally (and I'm thinking reluctantly) moved Lopez out of the #1 and #2 spots in game 2 of the doubleheader yesterday. But he's still got Lastings Milledge hitting 3rd. The same Lastings Milledge who is hitting .241/.307/.342. That's pretty awful. In the meantime, he's got Jesus Flores, the team's best and hottest hitter, hitting 5th and 6th.

Here's what the lineup should look like:
Guzman-SS
Milledge-CF
Flores-C
Boone-1B
Dukes-RF
Casto-3B
Pena-LF
Lopez-2B

I've gone over why Guzman and Milledge should be 1 and 2 before. I'm not sure what else is debatable. Between Pena and Lopez, we might as well put the guy who is capable of hitting it very far if he makes contact up there instead of the guy who hits grounders and pop ups and strikeouts galore.

And I'm getting angry by the media tonight (also heard it on Channel 4 news). THE BULLPEN DID NOT BLOW THE GAME! AYALA BLEW THE GAME! DO NOT INCRIMINATE THE INNOCENT (namely Hanrahan, who pitched, but also the ones who didn't pitch like Colome, Manning, Sanches, Rivera and Rauch)!

Thursday's Wins and Losses

There were multiple wins and losses on Thursday, including (but not exclusively) the games in the doubleheader. The Nats earned a split with the Cards, losing in the afternoon but winning in the nightcap.

The Nats lost 6-1 in the first game to the strangely effective Todd Wellemeyer. John Lannan was okay, pitching 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits, but with 4 walks and 0 strikeouts. Not a good trend to start, Johnny. Flores got hit by pitch in the hand but says he's okay (and finished the game). He didn't play or pinch hit in game 2, but he was going to get the night off anyways. Strange that if both catchers were going to catch one game, they didn't let Lannan throw to his personal catcher, Nieves. But I'm sure there's an explanation somewhere. We left 11 men on base, which is pretty awful. And reading the following should make you want to punch infants and elephants alike: Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Casto; Harris; Milledge; Langerhans. 4 guys couldn't bring a runner on second or third home with 2 outs. Casto redeemed himself in game 2, but Harris, Milledge and K-angerhans are in my doghouse. I'm actually convinced game 1 never actually happened (despite watching it). There were apparently less than 1000 witnesses. Time to call Vinny Castilla and see if he's got any cousins that can erase the game from the books if you know what I mean.

Bang! Zoom! went the fireworks following Elijah Dukes' walk-off monster mash (links to the monster mash, not the actual homer...sorry, I'm childish like that) in the bottom of the 10th. The weary Washington faithful witnessed Redding give up 6 runs (including a 3 run shot to a relief pitcher. Not a homer, it was a SHOT!) to keep St. Louis in the game, Rauch blow a save and Sanches give up a solo shot in the top of the 10th to give the Cards the lead. But then Elijah Dukes (who had a killer game. Hmmm...maybe 'killer' wasn't the best choice of words) hit a 2-run walk-off bomb to dead center (again, 'dead' isn't the best word). I've been pretty impressed with Elijah lately, both in the field and at the plate. Over the last 11 games, Elijah is 11/32 (a .344 batting average) with 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 SB, 8 R, 5 RBI and a 8/7 BB/K ratio. Not bad, dude. Also wanted to point out great nights by Guzman (4/6, 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B), Boone (3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, 1 SF) and Casto (3/4, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 1 BB). GUZMANIA!!!! returns, as Guzman's batting average went from .299 to .310. A 6/11 doubleheader does that for you, I guess.

I'm still scared by this: Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Nieves 2; Lopez; Milledge; Redding; Harris 2. Sure...Boone, Casto, Guzman and Dukes all delivered somewhere in the game with 2-out RBI's (and Casto had 2), but we can't continue the trend of leaving guys in scoring position with 2 outs. 10 times over 18 innings (not even including Redding, so really 11) our batters couldn't plate guys from second or third. I'm unhappy with this.

And last but certainly not least, the first 6 rounds of the draft took place tonight. The Nats snagged 3 hitters and 3 pitchers. 3 of these guys were high schoolers (meaning they're a year younger than me, weird), 1 was a first year JuCo guy (meaning he's my age, weird) and 2 were college juniors (meaning they're only 2 years older than me, still weird). Here's their haul (do yourself a favor and head to Nationals Farm Authority to see the full scouting reports. Great work, Brian!!): RHP Aaron Crow (University of Missouri), OF Destin Hood (Alabama-HS), SS Danny Espinosa (Long Beach State), LHP Graham Hicks (Florida-HS), C Adrian Nieto (Florida-HS) and RHP Paul Demny (Blinn JC). Among these guys, I'm ecstatic about Crow, Espinosa, Hicks and Nieto. All were excellent value picks and all but Nieto are pretty projectable at this point. Crow is going to be a #1-2 starter, Espinosa comes from Shortstop U (the alma mater of Chris Gomez, Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria), Hicks is another lefty who can throw strikes (following in the footsteps of Smoker and McGeary) and Nieto was the 4th rated catcher on most boards (behind Posey, Skipworth and Castro, all high first round picks). Hood and Demny are high risk-high reward guys it's looking like, but I'm happy with the balance of predictability (4 guys) and risk/reward (2).

To prove that none of us know anything about baseball

The Nats beat the Diamondbacks 7-4 tonight. Among the oddities:
--Willie Harris hit the game-winning 3 run home run. Watch the video here. Fast forward to 0:28 if you want an inappropriate Elijah Dukes soundbite.
--This lineup started: 1. Harris (2B), 2. Guzman (SS), 3. Boone (3B), 4. Young (1B), 5. Milledge (CF), 6. Langerhans (RF), 7. Flores (C), 8. Mackowiak (LF), 9. Redding (P).
--Arizona starter Micah Owings has a better batting average coming in than 5 Diamondbacks starters. Washington starter Tim Redding had a better batting average coming in than 3 Nationals starters. The difference? Owings has a .297 batting average. Redding's was .188 at the beginning of the day and .167 at the end of it.
--Any lineup featuring three players the terrible trifecta of Harris (.172), Langerhans (.111) and Mackowiak (.137) should not win. Funny how 2 of those 3 (Harris and K-angerhans) batted higher in the lineup than Jesus Flores (.344). For those math majors out there, .172*2=.344. So Flores is hitting twice is well than Harris, plus 3+ times more than Langerhans. And he's still hitting 7th. He was one of 3 starters (the other being Guzman and Boone) with an average above .241 and he's batting 7th. Great lineup tonight, Manny. But you got the W so I guess nobody will doubt you.
--After 7 straight appearances without allowing a run, Ayala served up a solo shot to Chad Tracy in the 8th.
--Redding was solid, giving up 3 runs in 5 and 2/3 (1 of them was let in by Hanrahan), but he couldn't make it to the 6th yet again. He's only pitched 6 innings in 50% of his starts. If he's going to be the Nats all-star representative (highly unlikely, IMO, as Jon Rauch has it all but locked up right now), he needs to string together some quality starts, pronto.

Other news: Maxwell has an injured wrist (which is why K-angerhans got called up instead). He's out at least a month. Hope he didn't catch the injury plague from Escobar or Nicky J.

Last night...

Not a whole lot I'm going to say about last night. I've got a few key hits though (something the Nats lacked last night!!)
--Chico sucks, why is he not in AAA?
--Jesus sucks (Colome, that is)...why is he not in AAA/on waivers/walking and balking for a different team?
--Jesus lives (Flores, that is)...he's hitting the tar out of the ball, playing terrific defense, calling a great game...if Lo Duca starts more than 2 times a week when he gets back, I don't know what JimBo is doing. The money doesn't matter. Developing one of our best young players, who is CLEARLY ready to be playing every day in the majors, should be priority 1A.
--Kearns to the DL? Couldn't hurt. Give the man another week off, give Dukes the at bats or call up one of the younger guys (Maxwell, Daniel, Bernadina, even Kory Casto. Again, we should be developing our prospects. Casto can still become a role player!!). Doesn't hurt to let Kearns heal, it's not like he's our star player right now anyways.

Monday night roundup and a must-see link!

Regarding tonight's 10-4 win over the Mets: Wow, we can beat these guys, but not the Marlins? I mean sure, Nelson Figueroa is no Johan Santana, but it's not like he's worse than Ricky Nolasco. But I digress. Tonight was odd...a pretty bad pitching outing by Odalis Perez (seriously, 11 hits allowed in 6 and 1/3 innings?) to go with his great evening at the plate (3-3, 1 run, 2 RBI, 1 sacrifice). The team had 4 doubles. Flores continues to alternate between hits and strikeouts, Guz leaves 8 men on base...and we still won by 6 over what was supposed to be the clear favorite to win the NL pennant at the beginning of the year. That's why ballgames are played on grass, not paper.

The Post has a new beat writer for the Nats, Chico Harlan. He's looked good so far, but only time will tell regarding whether or not he is Svrlugaesque.

Quick answers to the Mailbag questions:
Since Lastings Milledge hasn't been performing well enough, is there any way that the Nationals would consider signing Jim Edmonds?
-- Josh T., Chevy Chase, Md.
Are you serious? Edmonds is awful! He can't hit any more (.178/.265/.233). He was outhit by Jake Peavy by over 100 points, and Peavy isn't even a .300 hitter!! Edmonds can still catch the ball but he takes roughly eighteen years to get to it, so his defense isn't better. I mean if we want an more expensive and worse player than Milledge, Edmonds is definitely our guy. Stupid question.

What do you think of general manager Jim Bowden's strategy of signing veterans to fill out his roster -- Aaron Boone, Rob Mackowiak, Johnny Estrada and Paul Lo Duca. The Lerner ownership would have been better served by just saving its money. What is your view of this?
-- Michael L., Westport, Conn.

Boone-Good
Mackowiak-Good (Signing him was a good idea, keeping him is not)
Estrada-BAD!!!!!!!! MOST WORTHLESS PLAYER ALIVE!!!!!!!
Lo Duca-Poor...not quite bad, but I'm not feeling Jimbo on this one. Should have just let Jesus play in the Majors.

The Lerners were going to have to spend money in the offseason to keep fans from killing themselves, so this is what we got. I would have rather had them sign Boone and Mackowiak and Wil Nieves and save the money they spent on past-their-prime has-beens like Johnny Estrada and Paul Lo Duca on a contract extension for Ryan Zimmerman, because that's something the fans would actually get excited about. Not a stupid question.

Would there be negative consequences by sending Wily Mo Pena or Austin Kearns to the Minors and bringing up Ryan Langerhans? Langerhans seems to have corrected his hitting problems at Triple-A Columbus.
-- Geoff B., Las Vegas

No matter what corrections were made, Langerhans had 35 hits in 210 at bats last year. We would have to waive Wily Mo or Kearns to send them down. Learn waiver rules, please. It would make so much more sense to send down Mackowiak or Harris (inferior players to Kearns/Pena) or Dukes (options left). Stupid question.

I really enjoyed watching the rise of John Lannan from Class A Potomac to the big leagues last year, and now he is our best starter. The Nationals have a similar pitcher this year in Cory VanAllen. Have you heard any mention of him from the "think tank" about moving him up the ladder?
-- Cole J., Atlanta

Ladson's response: Oh, yes. He was already promoted to Double-A Harrisburg, and Bowden talks about him often. I would not be surprised if we saw VanAllen in the Majors by August or September.

Sounds good to me. I don't have any "think tank" connections so I'll have to defer to Ladson on this one.

You mentioned special assistant to GM Barry Larkin's stepping in to offer advice on hitting. How does hitting coach Lenny Harris feel about Larkin's presence? Is there some bad chemistry going on between the players and Harris?
-- Dean O., Winnipeg, Manitoba

It's not bad chemistry, it's the fact that Harris is not a very good hitting coach, period. Teach patience, patience, patience, the Nicky J method. Please, FIRE LENNY!!!

Considering how quickly Jason Bergmann was sent down to Columbus after pitching poorly in April, are you surprised that the Nats haven't sent Matt Chico down yet?
-- Mike G. Millersville, Md.

I'm not surprised at all, but I'm rather appalled. Bergmann>Chico. Chico needs the AAA seasoning more. Just because he pitched 31 games in the Majors last year doesn't mean he deserves a spot through thick and thin this year. Bergmann had 21 starts last year and put up a 95 ERA+ to Chico's 91. Give the guy with more pro potential another shot. That guy is Bergmann.

I recall Ryan Zimmerman's rookie season in which he had a significant number of bunt singles. Any thoughts on him trying that a couple of times to help him get out of his funk?
-- Doug C., Lubbock, Texas

Zim: please start doing this again. I miss your amazing drag bunts!!

***And here's your must-see link. A bunch of hilarious "Hardball made easy" videos with real MLB players such as Carlos Zambrano and Brad Hawpe. They're worth 10 minutes of your time (5 videos in all)

Thursday's Roundup

Lo Duca and Estrada to the DL, Flores up from AAA and Dukes back from the DL.
Estrada, first of all, should never have been reinstated from the DL, mainly because he never should have been signed at all. He is awful. He doesn't run out base hits, can't take a walk, hits in to a ton of double plays...and he couldn't even throw the ball when they reinstated him from the DL! They need to cut him, he's worthless.
Amateur Fighter Paul Lo Duca is going to be out 4-6 weeks. I think during this time, Nieves should start 3 games for every Flores game until he falters, and then they should go in cycles of either 2 games for Nieves, 2 for Flores, or 3 apiece.
I still think Rob Macowiak needs to be cut immediately. Sign Brad Wilkerson or Jacque Jones, at least they can play good defense and hit righties. Wilkerson would fit best, in my opinion, as he can take over at first if Johnson gets traded (and I can reuse my Wilkerson jersey/t-shirt thing).

Also, O'Connor to the rotation, Chico to the bullpen. All I have to say: It's about freakin' time! Chico needs to be sent down to AAA to learn how to throw strikes. Pure speculation is that they want him to stay up with St. Claire, but just as I said, that's simply speculation. They don't have any lefties in the pen besides Chico, though, so it could be hard from a management standpoint to send him down, but I still think it's in the team's best interest to keep a worthwhile reliever in the pen, because Chico can't get lefties out either.

I got to go on a tour of Nats Park today. It was really nice, and a fun tour. It's always cool go to in the dugout and bullpen and on the warning track. Wish we could have gone in the clubhouse, though, instead of just hanging on the outside. If you're looking to take the tour, I'd say it's worth the $15 (although my tour was paid for by someone else).

Now, my first Caps rant:
RESIGN FEDOROV!!
RESIGN HUET!!
RESIGN GREEN!!