Showing posts with label Mike Hinckley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Hinckley. Show all posts

Monday, May 25, 2009

Nats/Expos recent draft history: Intro and the Jim Beattie Era

Since the draft takes place two weeks from tomorrow, I figured I'd run a mini-series evaluating the Nats/Expos drafts since 1995 (a completely arbitrary date to pick, simply because there was a leadership change from Kevin Malone to Jim Beattie as GM). Your 4 GM's being evaluated are Malone (just his last draft), Beattie, Omar Minaya and our favorite, Jim Bowden (note-Larry Beinfest served as the interim GM from 2001-02, but did not draft in his short reign).

So, starting in 1995:
GM: Malone
Total picks: 46
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML in 2009): 6-Michael Barrett* (1), Henry Mateo (2), J.D. Smart (4), Brian Schneider* (5), Jeff Austin (10) and Pete LaForest (16).
Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 2228 (dominated by Barrett and Schneider's combined 1928)

Out of the 6 players they drafted, only 2 are still active and they were really the only two to stick in the majors. Funny that 3 of the 6 drafted were catchers in the majors. While this draft was a major failure talent-wise, it at least produced ML players in 4 of the top 5 picks. Also worth noting: the Expos picked 28th overall, the latest non-supplemental first round status in franchise history, as they were the best team in baseball in the strike-shortened 1994 season. Overall, it was a pretty bad draft.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 46
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 8-John Patterson (1), Milton Bradley* (2), Christian Parker (4), Jamey Carroll* (14), Andy Tracy* (16), Chris Stowers (17), Tim Young (19) and Carl Sadler (34).
Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 1834

Like many of the drafts I'll be examining, there was an excellent find in the top few rounds: Milton Bradley. Another trend that goes hand-in-hand with that: Bradley barely played 100 games for the Expos. Remember that Patterson didn't sign with the Expos, but instead with the Diamondbacks (according to Wikipedia, "Montreal lost the draft rights to Patterson on a legal technicality: they sent him a contract offer that was not printed on official team letterhead, and he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for $6.075 million."). So even though this draft produced two ML batters with 700+ games played in Bradley and Jamey Carroll, the Nats got pretty much nothing out of this draft.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 56
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 5-Brian Hebson (1s), TJ Tucker (1s), Talmadge Nunnari (9), Scott Strickland (10), Matt Blank (11)
Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 437

Worst. Draft. Ever. In. The. History. Of. Everything. This is completely unfathomably bad. The Expos had 7 supplemental first round picks and 9 total in the top 100. Out of these, 2 made the majors: Brian Hebson (2 career games) and TJ Tucker (171 career games). This is ineptitude that surpasses even Jim Bowden. Out of the top 15 drafted, 2 made the majors. Of the 13 that didn't, 11 were High Schoool picks and 2 were Junior College selections. Pretty much the textbook year for the "DON'T DRAFT HS PLAYERS" way of thinking.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 47
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 2-Brad Wilkerson (1s) and Jimmy Serrano (18)
Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 982

Despite the fact that there were only 2 Major Leaguers in the Expos' 1998 draft, at least they didn't blow 7 of 8 supplemental first rounders. Wilkerson was an average-or-better hitter for 5 full seasons and Serrano pitched 32 and 2/3 innings of league-average ball in 2004. But wow, what a killer 2-year stretch for the Expos. I didn't put a * beside Wilkerson because, even though he played a little bit for the Red Sox' AAA affiliate this year, he officially retired.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 48
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 5-Brandon Phillips* (2), Matt Cepicky (4), Brandon Watson* (9), Val Pascucci* (15) and Matt Watson (16)
Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 818

Another terribly top-heavy draft that didn't benefit the franchise at all. Phillips turned into a very good 2B, but nobody else stuck in the Majors out of this draft. 4th straight year of little return for the franchise. No wonder the Expos were so bad.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 49
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 11-Justin Wayne (1), Grady Sizemore* (3), Cliff Lee* (4), Shawn Hill* (6), Wes Littleton* (7), Phil Seibel (8), Fred Lewis* (20), Jason Bay* (22), Russell Martin* (35), Anthony Ferrari (44) and Jeff Karstens* (45) (note-Littleton, Lewis, Martin and Karstens did not sign).

Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 2606

Awesome draft. Too bad only Hill did anything for the Nats. This draft was a victim of Omar Minaya, who dealt Lee, Sizemore and Brandon Phillips (along with Lee Stevens) to Cleveland for Bartolo Colon (and Tim Drew) during the 2002 season. Thank goodness Minaya, one of the most overrated GM's of the current era, is in New York now. At least there he can attempt to cover up his mistakes by spending large sums of money on FA's.

GM: Beattie
Total picks: 50
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 4-Mike Hinckley* (3), Josh Labandeira (6), Chad Bentz (7) and Chris Schroder* (19)

Still with Nationals: 0
Total ML games amongst draftees: 137

Ummmm...when Chris Schroder is the best pick in a draft, it's a pretty bad one. That being said, I really wish we still had Schrodes to anchor or bullpen-Billy Beane, will you give him back? Pretty please?

At this point the Jim Beattie era mercifully ended. His totals: 35 major leaguers in 6 drafts...pretty bad. There were some diamonds in the rough, but none of them stuck around long enough to matter for the Nats. I'll get Minaya and Bowden done sometime tomorrow. Key stat: 0 players in drafts before 2001 are still with the Nats. Look at it this way: at least things can't get worse than this. And at least Jim Beattie isn't running the franchise anymore. You know he went to Dartmouth? For someone so smart, he's pretty stupid.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Roster Strategery

From NJ: your Opening Day Nationals

Pitching Rotation 
LHP John Lannan 
LHP Scott Olsen 
RHP Daniel Cabrera 
RHP Shairon Martis

These 4 all deserved to be here. No surprises or disgust here. Z-NN will be up when we need a 5th man in a few weeks.

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard (1B/2B/3B)
Alberto Gonzalez (2B/SS)
Cristian Guzman (SS)
Willie Harris (2B/3B/OF)
Nick Johnson (1B)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

I think the Nats did the right thing here as well when they sent down Casto and Cintron. Both will get another chance at some point during the year.

Bullpen 
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan 
LHP Mike Hinckley 
LHP Wil Ledezma 
RHP Saul Rivera 
RHP Steven Shell 
RHP Julian Tavarez

YUCK! This is poor bullpen management at it's best. 3 LHP is just stupid on all levels, even if Beimel isn't a LOOGY. Tavarez shouldn't have made the pen over Mock or Bergmann (or Colome, even), and one of Hinckley/Ledezma really had to go. Rizzo and Kasten get a F for the bullpen.

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

The front office failed here as well. They brought the best 5 OF they have to the big league squad, that's not the issue. Instead, the issue is that they didn't move a single one of them! I really can't believe they didn't deal off Willingham.

As for the Kearns/Dukes situation, I favor Manny's decision to start Kearns off under 1 condition-it's not permanent. When Dukes' bat gets up to speed, he starts. He's not ready yet, but needs to start when he is.

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

Carrying 3 catchers is stupid in almost every case, but this is just going to be an extended audition between Bard and Nieves until Hernandez comes back. Also, Flores will need time to adjust to ML pitching, as he missed much of ST, so 3 catchers isn't a terrible idea here.


Monday, March 30, 2009

Nats Nuggets

Jon Heyman's latest column notes two things we should probably be afraid of:

First, apparently Boras isn't kidding about the $50 mil demands. Heyman's key quote: "Now Boras is said to want $50 million on a six-year contract, a contract proposal that was first floated as a possibility by Peter Gammons. It seemed fanciful when it was first thrown out there. But apparently it's deadly serious. Besides [fictional player Sid] Finch, executives say they believe the other comparable player Boras sees is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who got $52 million over six years from the Red Sox after starring for years in the Japanese League. Boras, who declined to comment, apparently is suggesting the tens of thousands of previously drafted players over the past 40 years aren't in Strasburg's league."

Yikes. Even if he chooses $30 mil as his sticking point, the Nats will pass. Unless his demands are between $10 and $20 mil, I don't see the Nats signing Strasburg. I do think that, in the end, they will get it done, but just the rumors are scary to think about (not in terms of money, but in terms of "oh no, we might not get Strasburg!").

Second (and in the long run, more important): Heyman says that Rizzo and Bowden both wanted to meet Crow's asking price, but the Lerners and Kasten wouldn't budge from $3.3 mil. That is scary. The first round of the draft is not the time to be cheap when you have a team whose minor league system, frankly, sucks. Enough of this "precedent" garbage. Just get it done.


Moving along, Chico Harlan posted up the Nats who are out of options over at Nats Journal.
Here's how I see them stacking up, from most likely to make the roster to least likely:
* Joel Hanrahan, Josh Willingham, Willie Harris, Daniel Cabrera, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard-locks
* Steven Shell, Mike Hinckley, Kory Casto-Casto and Hinckley should not make the team, and Shell is iffy, but I can see all 3 making it. Since the Nats are starting with 14 hitters, Casto will probably break camp with the team, and I would expect Shell to as well. Hinckley is probably headed to waivers/Syracuse in my opinion.
* Wily Mo Pena (gone)

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Ladson's Inbox

I guess big Bill has been saving questions up, so here's the second "Inbox" of the week!

 

With the glut of outfielders on the roster, who do you think has the best chance of getting traded? -- Derek C., Ottawa, Canada

Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns because they're an

yone else's for the taking. If either has a strong ST, I could see them being dealt (as in someone actually wanting them). Willie Harris, Lastings Milledge and Josh Willingham are all possibilities, too.

Was Dunn a Type A free agent, and did the Nationals have to give up a Draft choice for signing him? -- Phil L., Hershey, Pa.

(Ladson's answer): Dunn was not a Type A free agent because the D-backs didn't offer him arbitration. That means the Nationals will not lose a 2009 Draft pick.

(my addition): Imagine if they HAD offered him arbitration. We could have gotten him for like $3 mil a year.

With the addition of Dunn, do you think Ryan Zimmerman will have a breakout year in 2009? -- James C., Washington

(Ladson's answer): Here's what I think Zimmerman will do this season: .290 with 30 home runs and 110 RBIs.

Seriously? I love Zim, but he's not a 30 HR hitter. Put me down for .290, 25 HR, 45 doubles and 100 RBI. And I will not attribute this to Dunn for the most part, but rather to Zim's continued development.

What is the status of Dmitri Young? I can't find any information on him anywhere. -- Steve D., Hayden, Ind.

Via Facebook: 




Why aren't the Nationals trying to sign a pitcher like Pedro Martinez? He's at the end of his career, yes, but he could help the younger pitchers improve. 

-- David P., Boucherville, Quebec, Canada

I think signing Pedro would be a great addition-theres's no reason to believe he's got nothing left in the tank. More of an issue on injuries.

 

Everything I have been reading has Mike Hinckley set to be the main left-hander out of the bullpen. What does this mean for Mike O'Connor? 
-- Paul M., Vienna, Va.

O'Connor has been terrible in the majors. Do you really want him back?

You have mentioned that the organization is content with Harris as a reserve. If that's the case, who do you see as the leadoff hitter? 
-- Eddie T., New York

How the lineup should go:

Guzman-6
Johnson-3
Zimmerman-5
Dunn-7
Dukes-9
Milledge-8
Flores-2
Belliard/Hernandez/Harris-4

If Harris is starting, put him leadoff and move Guzman down to 8th.

If Johnson starts this season and is healthy and plays at the expectations people thinks he can, will he be back in 2010? 
-- Juan F., Alexandria, Va.

That's a good question. I would tend to doubt it. I expect the Nats to put Dunn at 1B long-term (as in 2010).

 

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

We've got the market cornered

No, not on toolsy outfielders....on Wil(y/l/lie)s! That makes 4 (Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Wil Nieves...and 5 if you count Josh Willingham).

If you haven't heard by now, the Nats signed Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal worth $750k.

Can't argue with the price, as 3 of his 6 seasons have been at least average in my book...and he's very good in April. If we're paying $2.5 mil for Daniel Cabrera, there's no reason not to pay this guy $750k. Look at him as the insurance policy just in case Mike Hinckley doesn't keep that 0.00 ERA rolling.