Playing Catch-Up

Big post coming today. Lots of links and then the inbox!

First off, the Nats are apparently scouting Aaron Crow again this year. He would have to give the Nats his permission to be drafted again by them this year. I think the scouting is procedural-you have to scout the top 100 or 500 or 1000 players no matter what, even if you're probably not going to pick him. But I doubt he would give the Nats his permission to be re-drafted and even if he did, I doubt the Nats would re-draft him.

The Nats traded for Logan Kensing and signed Mike Macdougal recently, both of which are good moves in my opinion. You can never have enough pitching (as we've learned so far) and we gave up basically nothing for either of them. Chances are, they will probably suck (or continue to pitch the way the Nats have this year-tons of BB's), but it's always worth a shot. The only cost is money, and since it's not my money I like it!

I also like the Martis complete game. 6 K's and 0 BB's and only 110 pitches in 9 innings works for me. I think Manny's babying of our pitchers is ridiculous at times, especially considering the state of our bullpen. A step in the right direction, I guess.

Tony Gwynn says Strasburg could start in the Majors and be the Nats' #1 starter right away. I agree. Talent-wise, nobody is even comparable in the system, and he's best off hanging around our best pitching mind in Randy St. Claire anyways. At this point, I don't see how the Nats can not start him in the Majors.

Continue to keep an eye on DC Pro Sports Report's mock draft databases. Through 12 mocks of the 2009 MLB draft, there is really a mixed bag amongst candidates for the Nats' second pick. The only repeated player is University of Georgia 1B Rich Poythress. I would be stoked if he fell to the Nats at 10-he has 20 HR and more BB than K so far this year.

Dunn's "Natinals" jersey commanded $8000 at the Dream Gala. If I had that kind of money to throw around, I would probably buy it as well.

Hanrahan wants the closer job back. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that by the All Star Break, he'll have it back. Once he strings together 5 or so good appearances in a row, he'll be ready to get it back.

Even though it was previously unimaginable, the Caps' future is even brighter with Simeon Varlamov shutting the door in the playoffs. I only got to see the 3rd period of Saturday's 3-2 win over the Penguins, but saw the replay of his sprawling save on Crosby about 4000 times. Nice job, Varly!

Here's your inbox:

Do you believe Dukes is the Nationals' best player?
-- John J., Washington

Talent-wise, yes. Production-wise, it's Zimmerman. Dukes has been disappointing in the field so far, while Zimmerman is good across the board.

Do you think Milledge will ever play for the Nats again, or will he be traded. I would think Dukes is entrenched as the center fielder.
-- Dennis Walsh, Silver Spring, Md.

Forecast for Milledge's future: Partly cloudy with 100% chance of playing for the Nats. How Rizzo handles this situation might dictate getting the "acting" dropped from his title. Trading Milledge now would be a horrible mistake-his value is clearly at his lowest. There's no reason to trade away a 24 year old with a ton of talent when he's at a valley in terms of value.

If Daniel Cabrera continues to be shaky, do you think the front office would be willing to see if Collin Balester could do a better job?
-- Bryan A., Fairfield, Conn.

Another big question for Rizzo's future is how he handles this. I know the Lerners would hate to eat his $2.6 mil contract, but he's clearly never going to live up to his potential. Rizzo could try to hide him in the bullpen or send him to AAA to learn how to pitch correctly, but I think an outright release (or a trade, if somebody's dumb enough) are the most likely. I'm going to guess that we ride out Cabrera's inefficiency until Strasburg signs and takes his spot...just a gut guess.

In the wake of recent closer woes, can you shed some light on why the Nationals got rid of Steven Shell?
-- Cordell F., Washington

Shell was redonkulously lucky last year. He's a decent pitcher who I'm sure they would have loved to keep in AAA for depth, but he's not a vital member of our bullpen. He's simply just not that good.

It was reported the Nats have interest in Pedro Martinez. If so, they should go after him.
-- Dennis W. Silver Spring, Md.

You're preaching to the choir, dude. $5 mil is a little too much to pay for Pedro though, so when the price comes down they should make it happen.

I have been following the Nationals/Expos from the very beginning, and I like the young pitchers. I'm also confident that the Nationals will have 20-22 more wins this year than last. I know that sounds over the top, but I sincerely believe it.
-- Dan R., San Luis Obispo, Calif.

At the beginning of the year, I would say "hey, it can happen." 20-22 more wins would still only be 79-81 total, which would put us around/at .500. Possible, but after this atrocious start, I can confidently say 70 wins will be a success.

That's all I've got for the time being. Now I'm off to catch up on my 1000+ items on my Google Reader.

Nats Nuggets

Jon Heyman's latest column notes two things we should probably be afraid of:

First, apparently Boras isn't kidding about the $50 mil demands. Heyman's key quote: "Now Boras is said to want $50 million on a six-year contract, a contract proposal that was first floated as a possibility by Peter Gammons. It seemed fanciful when it was first thrown out there. But apparently it's deadly serious. Besides [fictional player Sid] Finch, executives say they believe the other comparable player Boras sees is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who got $52 million over six years from the Red Sox after starring for years in the Japanese League. Boras, who declined to comment, apparently is suggesting the tens of thousands of previously drafted players over the past 40 years aren't in Strasburg's league."

Yikes. Even if he chooses $30 mil as his sticking point, the Nats will pass. Unless his demands are between $10 and $20 mil, I don't see the Nats signing Strasburg. I do think that, in the end, they will get it done, but just the rumors are scary to think about (not in terms of money, but in terms of "oh no, we might not get Strasburg!").

Second (and in the long run, more important): Heyman says that Rizzo and Bowden both wanted to meet Crow's asking price, but the Lerners and Kasten wouldn't budge from $3.3 mil. That is scary. The first round of the draft is not the time to be cheap when you have a team whose minor league system, frankly, sucks. Enough of this "precedent" garbage. Just get it done.

Moving along, Chico Harlan posted up the Nats who are out of options over at Nats Journal.

Here's how I see them stacking up, from most likely to make the roster to least likely:
* Joel Hanrahan, Josh Willingham, Willie Harris, Daniel Cabrera, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard-locks
* Steven Shell, Mike Hinckley, Kory Casto-Casto and Hinckley should not make the team, and Shell is iffy, but I can see all 3 making it. Since the Nats are starting with 14 hitters, Casto will probably break camp with the team, and I would expect Shell to as well. Hinckley is probably headed to waivers/Syracuse in my opinion.
* Wily Mo Pena (gone)

Some interesting scenarios

Lots of good stuff today over at MLBTR.

In this link dump, Tim Dierkes notes that Odalis Perez wants to come back and pitch again for the Nats next year. His source, Pete McElroy of MASN also notes in the same article that Aaron Boon'e top choice is to come back to the Nationals.
Dierkes also mentions that Aaron Crow could be gone at the Royals' 12 pick next year (apparently the Royals like him). But who cares, the guy's a bum!

In a short post about A.J. Burnett, Dierkes says that in 2005, the Nats were the only team (besides the Blue Jays, of course) to offer Burnett a 5-year deal. Also mentioned is the fact that "Burnett's preference to be close to his Maryland home could be a factor." The Nats aren't listed as a potential suitor (while the AngelO's are), but I can see them being a dark-horse candidate for Burnett, Oliver Perez and even Ben Sheets. They probably won't get any of them, but I can definitely see them being in the top 3 bidders, losing out over dollars rather than years.

Last but not least, in Dierkes' chat today, he speculates the Nats might be in on Mike Hampton this offseason (presumably if Odalis leaves). A Hampton signing sounds the kind of move Bowden always makes. Not sure how much I like it, but Hampton was pretty good before his injuries (and he can hit, just like Odalis, Livan, etc...unlike Bergmann and Lannan!).

Here are some scenarios (all are pure speculation):
Signing 1 of the following: Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett (5% chance of happening)
Signing 1 of the following: Odalis Perez, Mike Hampton, Livan Hernandez, Sergio Mitre (50% chance of happening)
Signing 1 of the following: C.C. Sabathia, Mark Texiera, Francisco Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Brian Fuentes (.00000000000001% chance of happening)
Signing 1 former Red: Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Corey Patterson (goodness I hope not), Paul Bako, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion, Brett Tomko (99.9% chance of happening)
Trading for 1 of the following: Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks), Nick Swisher (White Sox), Matt Holliday (Rockies), Jeremy Hermida (Marlins), various Marlins pitchers (5% chance of happening).
Trading for 1 of the following: Jake Peavy (Padres), J.J. Hardy (Brewers), Magglio Ordonez (Tigers) (.0000000000001% chance of happening)

What are your thoughts? (FYI, I think the chances of getting a Holliday or Sheets are less than an Oliver Perez or Mark Reynolds, I just felt like grouping them in the "higher chance" groups because they won't be the top players on the market, more likely a plan B for the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

Bowden fails us again

Jim Bowden, your time is officially up. For all intents and purposes, you are dead to me. I will no longer acknowledge your role as Nationals General Manager, because that can't possibly be your job. Your job is to screw this team over moreso than MLB did in the early 2000s.

For those of you who haven't figured it out yet, Bowden let Crow slip away. You might think Crow's demands were what kept the deal from happening...but no, it was Jim Bowden (whose intelligence ranks up there with elephant turds) who kept the deal from happening.

From BaseballAmerica:

One source indicated the Crow camp, led by his agents the Hendricks Brothers, dropped their demands to $4 million from the $8-$10 million range, and that the Nationals came up from slot to $3.3 million, but that the two sides ran out of time and wiggle room and couldn’t work out a compromise.

Jim Bowden lost out on Aaron Crow over $700k. Are you freakin' kidding me? Running out of time is absolutely not an excuse, as they've had more than 2 months to figure this stuff out. $700k, really? That's just embarrassing. Bowden, you're an embarrassment and continue to prove it time and time again.

If the Lerner family ever wants to field a winning team (something I consistently doubt), they need to pay off Bowden for whatever he's got that blackmails the family and get him a plane ticket to Guyana.

In other news, Bowden's ineptitude for building a team showed again tonight, as the Nats lost their 8th straight game. Bleck. At least the Cubs are rolling (5 wins in a row). Otherwise, I might pronounce the 2008 MLB season officially dead.

Tonight's your chance to vandalize Bowden's Wikipedia page.

And tonight's the Nats' night to fire Bowden. DO IT!!!!!!!!!! NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FOR THE SAKE OF THE CHILDREN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When no news isn't good news

Still no real word on Aaron Crow. I know everyone's saying all of the 1st round guys who are unsigned are just waiting for one domino to fall, but if he's really asking for $8-9 mil and an ML contract, I'm not confident he'll be signed. Whether or not he's worth that price is a different story, but am I the only one that doubts the Nats will give him even half of that? When he signs, I'll be happy. Until then, I'll be skeptical, especially when I keep reading articles like this.

Why is Odalis Perez still on our team? His last 3 starts have all been quality ones (6 IP or more while allowing 3 ER or less). He's got a 2.79 ERA and a 2-0 record in those 3 starts. And he's got a 4.12 ERA for the year while only making $1 mil. AND HE'S A LEFTY! I can't help but believe this is another instance where JimBow is asking for the moon and we'll end up with nothing to show for it. I find it hard to believe we can't score a Jhonny Nunez-level player for Odalis, so just like in Crow's situation, I'll be wearing my skeptical pants for now.

One last thing: would anyone be interested in a contest? There wouldn't be any prizes or anything (I am a poor college student, you know), but you would get the pride of knowing you're the best Nationals fan in the world. Email me your list of guys who you think the Nats will call up when rosters expand on September 1. I'll compile the winners that day and announce them afterwards. Sound like fun?

That's about all I've got for now. Check out Steven's interview with Baseball America Editor John Manuel here. As I posted in Steven's comments today, FireJimBowden is a daily must-read. You may not agree with everything, but it's still worth reading. I wonder what he'll call his blog when Bowden is fired?