Playing Catch-Up

Big post coming today. Lots of links and then the inbox!

First off, the Nats are apparently scouting Aaron Crow again this year. He would have to give the Nats his permission to be drafted again by them this year. I think the scouting is procedural-you have to scout the top 100 or 500 or 1000 players no matter what, even if you're probably not going to pick him. But I doubt he would give the Nats his permission to be re-drafted and even if he did, I doubt the Nats would re-draft him.

The Nats traded for Logan Kensing and signed Mike Macdougal recently, both of which are good moves in my opinion. You can never have enough pitching (as we've learned so far) and we gave up basically nothing for either of them. Chances are, they will probably suck (or continue to pitch the way the Nats have this year-tons of BB's), but it's always worth a shot. The only cost is money, and since it's not my money I like it!

I also like the Martis complete game. 6 K's and 0 BB's and only 110 pitches in 9 innings works for me. I think Manny's babying of our pitchers is ridiculous at times, especially considering the state of our bullpen. A step in the right direction, I guess.

Tony Gwynn says Strasburg could start in the Majors and be the Nats' #1 starter right away. I agree. Talent-wise, nobody is even comparable in the system, and he's best off hanging around our best pitching mind in Randy St. Claire anyways. At this point, I don't see how the Nats can not start him in the Majors.

Continue to keep an eye on DC Pro Sports Report's mock draft databases. Through 12 mocks of the 2009 MLB draft, there is really a mixed bag amongst candidates for the Nats' second pick. The only repeated player is University of Georgia 1B Rich Poythress. I would be stoked if he fell to the Nats at 10-he has 20 HR and more BB than K so far this year.

Dunn's "Natinals" jersey commanded $8000 at the Dream Gala. If I had that kind of money to throw around, I would probably buy it as well.

Hanrahan wants the closer job back. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that by the All Star Break, he'll have it back. Once he strings together 5 or so good appearances in a row, he'll be ready to get it back.

Even though it was previously unimaginable, the Caps' future is even brighter with Simeon Varlamov shutting the door in the playoffs. I only got to see the 3rd period of Saturday's 3-2 win over the Penguins, but saw the replay of his sprawling save on Crosby about 4000 times. Nice job, Varly!

Here's your inbox:

Do you believe Dukes is the Nationals' best player?
-- John J., Washington

Talent-wise, yes. Production-wise, it's Zimmerman. Dukes has been disappointing in the field so far, while Zimmerman is good across the board.

Do you think Milledge will ever play for the Nats again, or will he be traded. I would think Dukes is entrenched as the center fielder.
-- Dennis Walsh, Silver Spring, Md.

Forecast for Milledge's future: Partly cloudy with 100% chance of playing for the Nats. How Rizzo handles this situation might dictate getting the "acting" dropped from his title. Trading Milledge now would be a horrible mistake-his value is clearly at his lowest. There's no reason to trade away a 24 year old with a ton of talent when he's at a valley in terms of value.

If Daniel Cabrera continues to be shaky, do you think the front office would be willing to see if Collin Balester could do a better job?
-- Bryan A., Fairfield, Conn.

Another big question for Rizzo's future is how he handles this. I know the Lerners would hate to eat his $2.6 mil contract, but he's clearly never going to live up to his potential. Rizzo could try to hide him in the bullpen or send him to AAA to learn how to pitch correctly, but I think an outright release (or a trade, if somebody's dumb enough) are the most likely. I'm going to guess that we ride out Cabrera's inefficiency until Strasburg signs and takes his spot...just a gut guess.

In the wake of recent closer woes, can you shed some light on why the Nationals got rid of Steven Shell?
-- Cordell F., Washington

Shell was redonkulously lucky last year. He's a decent pitcher who I'm sure they would have loved to keep in AAA for depth, but he's not a vital member of our bullpen. He's simply just not that good.

It was reported the Nats have interest in Pedro Martinez. If so, they should go after him.
-- Dennis W. Silver Spring, Md.

You're preaching to the choir, dude. $5 mil is a little too much to pay for Pedro though, so when the price comes down they should make it happen.

I have been following the Nationals/Expos from the very beginning, and I like the young pitchers. I'm also confident that the Nationals will have 20-22 more wins this year than last. I know that sounds over the top, but I sincerely believe it.
-- Dan R., San Luis Obispo, Calif.

At the beginning of the year, I would say "hey, it can happen." 20-22 more wins would still only be 79-81 total, which would put us around/at .500. Possible, but after this atrocious start, I can confidently say 70 wins will be a success.

That's all I've got for the time being. Now I'm off to catch up on my 1000+ items on my Google Reader.

Correct Opening Day roster set...2 weeks too late

Chico's got the moves:

Added to the roster: Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Kip Wells and Jordan Zimmermann

Removed from the roster: Saul Rivera and Josh Bard (optioned to Syracuse) and Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell (DFA'ed).

I think Colome should be up rather than Wells (and is bringing Kip Wells up really worth losing Steven Shell?) but other than that, the right moves were made.

And Ryan Zimmerman has agreed to terms. Maybe today isn't so bad after all!

EDIT-my first favorite Natinal, Brad Wilkerson, has retired. Best of luck, Brad!

Nats roster almost finalized

According to Ladson, Alex Cintron has accepted an assignment to AAA Syracuse. He also notes that Josh Bard and Wil Nieves will probably both make the team and Kory Casto will be waived today or tomorrow. That leaves the bullpen as the only place not yet decided. 

Chico was right that Bard and Nieves would stay and Cintron and Castro would go and predicts Tavarez, Shell, Hinckley and Bergmann will be the remaining 4 relievers (with Colome, Mock and Ledezma losing out). I think it should be Bergmann, Mock, Colome and Shell, but I think it will be Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Hinckley.

Bergmann has to be a lock now with a 0.00 ERA in 11 and 1/3 innings (although he has allowed 4 unearned runs). I'd have to think Mock's chances are pretty good as well, with a 2.42 ERA in 26 IP as a reliever last year and 3.94 in 16 ST innings this year, so he hasn't done anything to lose his spot. Shell is in the same boat, with a 2.16 ERA last year and a 4.09 in Spring Training. I'd like to see Colome make the team, despite my dislike of his "Human Rain Delay" tactics. He has allowed 1 run in 10 innings in ST and has an impressive 9:0 K:BB ratio (yes, that's right, Colome has not walked anyone in 10 straight innings!). Tavarez has simply sucked in his 2 games and probably needs more seasoning before he plays in the majors this year, so I don't see why he would stick with the big club (and waste another 40-man spot). I don't see why Hinckley would win a spot over Ledezma (although I don't think either should make the team). But there's my rant.

In Ladson's article, he also mentions a possible competition between Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns as the starting RF. While I love Elijah Dukes, I do think that Kearns has earned a job at least every other day somewhere-he's an outstanding fielder and will improve greatly with the bat (he was playing hurt last year, that's why his numbers were so terrible). While Dukes' numbers haven't been terrible in Spring Training (and not that it would matter anyways, because ST stats mean very little), his K rate is alarming-43% of his at-bats! He's being overmatched by pitchers (and Spring Training pitchers at that)...does that not scare anyone else? 

Ideally, I'd like to see Willingham traded and have the ratios go like this:

1B: Johnson-80% of starts, Dunn-20% of starts

LF: Dunn-70% of starts, Kearns-25% of starts, Harris-5% of starts

CF: Milledge-70% of starts, Dukes-15% of starts, Harris-15% of starts

RF: Dukes-60% of starts, Kearns-40% of starts

Giving Johnson starts in 4/5 games, Dunn starts in 9/10 games, Harris in 1/5 (plus some 2B/3B time), Kearns in a little more than 3/5, Milledge in 7/10 and Dukes in a little more than 7/10. We've got 5 good outfielders, we just need a time and place to use them.

Nats Nuggets

Jon Heyman's latest column notes two things we should probably be afraid of:

First, apparently Boras isn't kidding about the $50 mil demands. Heyman's key quote: "Now Boras is said to want $50 million on a six-year contract, a contract proposal that was first floated as a possibility by Peter Gammons. It seemed fanciful when it was first thrown out there. But apparently it's deadly serious. Besides [fictional player Sid] Finch, executives say they believe the other comparable player Boras sees is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who got $52 million over six years from the Red Sox after starring for years in the Japanese League. Boras, who declined to comment, apparently is suggesting the tens of thousands of previously drafted players over the past 40 years aren't in Strasburg's league."

Yikes. Even if he chooses $30 mil as his sticking point, the Nats will pass. Unless his demands are between $10 and $20 mil, I don't see the Nats signing Strasburg. I do think that, in the end, they will get it done, but just the rumors are scary to think about (not in terms of money, but in terms of "oh no, we might not get Strasburg!").

Second (and in the long run, more important): Heyman says that Rizzo and Bowden both wanted to meet Crow's asking price, but the Lerners and Kasten wouldn't budge from $3.3 mil. That is scary. The first round of the draft is not the time to be cheap when you have a team whose minor league system, frankly, sucks. Enough of this "precedent" garbage. Just get it done.

Moving along, Chico Harlan posted up the Nats who are out of options over at Nats Journal.

Here's how I see them stacking up, from most likely to make the roster to least likely:
* Joel Hanrahan, Josh Willingham, Willie Harris, Daniel Cabrera, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard-locks
* Steven Shell, Mike Hinckley, Kory Casto-Casto and Hinckley should not make the team, and Shell is iffy, but I can see all 3 making it. Since the Nats are starting with 14 hitters, Casto will probably break camp with the team, and I would expect Shell to as well. Hinckley is probably headed to waivers/Syracuse in my opinion.
* Wily Mo Pena (gone)

Tuesday Thoughts

First of all, I'm disappointed we didn't sign Ray Durham. I wouldn't waste a penny on a bet with 1000 to 1 odds saying Anderson Hernandez will be "good" this year. I might consider "league average" but even that would be a push. Belliard is nice, but Durham is better.

It's good to see guys getting to Viera early. Among the list of early arrivals (from Nats Journal): Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young (who apparently is lookin' good), Scott Olsen, Jason Bergmann, Ross Detwiler, Steven Shell, Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock. I'd like to see guys like Flores, Kearns and Pena get there early to get some extra work in, but it's extremely early for hitters to show up.

Last in the order of business-anyone want to start a Natmosphere fantasy baseball league? I'm in, and FJB and I better not be the only excited ones!

Mailbag time!

It's the most exciting part of the day for me, as I sit here waiting for the oh-so-exciting Environmental Geosciences class to convene (another movie on earthquakes!! YAYYY!!!)

Here's your non-BS mailbag answers:

Do you think Elijah Dukes will play center field and Lastings Milledge will move to left field in 2009?
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

As our buddy Ladson says, if Dukes' knee can handle it, he WILL be the starting center fielder and Milledge WILL be the starting left fielder. That's the way it should be, at least until Millz with Thrillz can learn how to play center.

Do the Nationals have any building blocks? This team doesn't look like a Major League roster.
-- Scott C., Washington, D.C.

I'm sorry, Scott, but that's an ignorant question. A "building block" is a player who the team can use as a centerpiece. An entire team is not made of "building block" players. The Nats have building blocks in Zimmerman and Dukes, that's all. Flores, Lannan, Milledge, etc. have the chance to become centerpieces with solid 2009 campaigns, but only Zimmerman and Dukes seem like they're on the fast track to stardom.

Is right-hander Jason Bergmann still a part of Nats' long-term plans?
-- Frank H., Northampton, UK

I don't see how anyone in their right mind would put Martis into the 2009 rotation plans as Ladson suggests (he still needs a LOT of seasoning), but I see Lannan, Redding, Zimmermann and Balester getting guaranteed rotation spots and various major and minor league FA's competing with the likes of Bergmann and Hill (if healthy) and others for the 5th spot.

Now that he has shown a 91-92 mph fastball and command of two other pitches, is Mike Hinckley a candidate for the rotation in 2009?
-- Roger B., Bethesda, Md.

No. He had 7 seasons in the minors to prove himself as a starter. He had success in relief in 2008 and will stick there as long as he has success.

The Nationals have made a lot of player moves in the past 12 months. What grade would you give them in that regard?
-- Mike E. Springfield, Va.

On a 5 point grading scale:
5.0-Dukes, Wee Willie
4.0-Odalis, Milledge
3.0-Gonzalez, Hernandez
2.0-Bonifacio
1.0-Mackowiak, Estrada, Lo Duca

Average grade-2.7, around a C average.

Can you update us on the contract status of players after this season?
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

From Ladson:

Free agents: Aaron Boone, 1B; Odalis Perez, LHP
Eligible for arbitration: Jesus Colome, RHP; Chad Cordero, RHP; Willie Harris, OF; Ryan Langerhans, OF Tim Redding, RHP; Zimmerman, 3B.
Player options: Wily Mo Pena, OF, $2 million.
Club options: Pena, OF, $5 million.

What about Orr?

I'm a big supporter of Cordero. Can you tell me what his future is with this team?
-- Heywood U., Tampa, Fla.

He won't be back.

Why hasn't there been any love for right-hander Steven Shell? His ERA is one of the lowest on the squad. He seems to be a quiet kid. Shell does his job and has been a rock since his June callup.
-- Matt E., Washington D.C.

He's the man. I love him. Oddly, he hasn't been tagged here, so he has flown (flied? flew?) under the radar (so much I didn't include him in the offseason acquisitions). So I'll tag him here and say he's a very pleasant surprise.

Bowden and manager Manny Acta said they want to obtain a slugging left-handed bat. What are the chances of them obtaining first baseman Mark Teixeira to fill that roll?
-- Jim T., Beaufort, S.C.

Are you kidding? Lerners open their wallets? 0%.


Also-required reading. Will probably comment more later.