Why Shawn Hill should be a closer

I'm tired of seeing Shawn Hill's name penciled into the starting rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of him, but he's had so many arm problems up until this point of his career that it makes no sense to continue throwing him into the fire. For that reason in itself, it's time to turn Shawn Hill into a dominant reliever.

There are other reasons Hill should be a reliever besides his durability issues. He is very effective both in the first time through the opponent's lineup and in high leverage situations. By being a closer (or just a late-inning reliever, for that matter), he would pitch most in those two situations. So, would Hill be more effective as a reliever than as a starter? In a word, yes. 

In the first inning he pitches, Hill allows his opponents to hit .236/.297/.279 off of him, as opposed to the .296/.350/.466 opponents hit off of him from inning 2 on. The key to his first inning successed is the fact that he gives up almost nothing more than a single. There have been 33 first inning hits off of Shawn Hill in his short career. Only 4 of these (12%) went for extra bases-3 doubles and a home run. Now compare this to the 36% XBH rate from the second inning on. When a batter faces Hill for the first time in a game (not necessarily in the first inning), they hit .258/.316/.352 off of him. When they face him for the second time, that line skyrockets to .313/.369/.469 and further to .291/.354/.505 for the third (and fourth, fifth, etc.) time they face him. Hill obviously has something special that works the first time through the lineup ridiculously well.

The other main factor needed for a reliever is their success in high-leverage situations (read about the definition here). Hill performed best in the highest leverage situations, allowing a .254/.329/.362 line against. In medium leverage situations, he was decent, with a .288/.336/.434 line against. In low leverage situations, Hill got shellacked, with a .299/.366/.470 line against. So if you want a pitcher who thrives in the situations that make you sweat most, Hill's your guy.

All stats used in this post are provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

Nats resign Colome, invite 63 to Spring Training

Thanks to Nats Journal for the news flash. Here's the pdf if you wanna see heights, weights, ages, stats, etc.

For those of you who don't feel like opening the PDF, here are your spring training Washington Nationals:

PITCHERS-40-Man Roster

RHP Luis Atilano+

RHP Collin Balester*

RHP Jason Bergmann*

RHP Daniel Cabrera^

LHP Matt Chico*

RHP Tyler Clippard*

LHP Ross Detwiler+

RHP Marco Estrada*

RHP Joel Hanrahan*

RHP Shawn Hill*

LHP Mike Hinckley*

LHP John Lannan*

RHP Shairon Martis*

RHP Garrett Mock*

LHP Mike O'Connor*

LHP Scott Olsen^

RHP Saul Rivera*

RHP Steven Shell*

RHP Terrell Young%

PITCHERS-Non-Roster Invitees

RHP Bobby Brownlie+

RHP Jesus Colome*

LHP Gustavo Chacin%

LHP Justin Jones+

RHP Preston Larrison%

LHP Wil Ledezma^

RHP J.D. Martin%

RHP Jorge Sosa^

RHP Josh Towers%

RHP Ryan Wagner+

RHP Jordan Zimmermann+

CATCHERS-40-Man Roster

R/R Jesus Flores*

R/R Luke Montz*

R/R Wil Nieves*

CATCHERS-Non-Roster Invitees

R/R Javier Herrera+

R/R Gustavo Molina^

INFIELDERS-40-Man Roster

R/R Ronnie Belliard*

L/R Kory Casto*

R/R Ian Desmond+

S/R Alberto Gonzalez*

S/R Cristian Guzman*

S/R Anderson Hernandez*

L/L Nick Johnson*

R/R Ryan Zimmerman*

INFIELDERS-Non-Roster Invitees

L/R Freddie Bynum^

R/R Jose Castillo^

R/R Brad Eldred%

R/R Joel Guzman%

L/R Peterson T. Orr*

R/R Matt Whitney%

S/R Dmitri Young*

OUTFIELDERS-40-Man Roster

L/L Roger Bernadina*

L/R Leonard Davis+

R/R Elijah Dukes*

L/R Willie Harris*

R/R Austin Kearns*

R/R Justin Maxwell+

R/R Lastings Milledge*

R/R Wily Mo Pena*

R/R Josh Willingham^

OUTFIELDERS-Non-Roster Invitees

R/R Destin Hood+

L/L Ryan Langerhans*

R/R Jorge Padilla+

L/R Corey Patterson^

*=spent time with the Nats in 2008
^=spent time with another ML team in 2008

+=spent time with the Nats organization in 2008, but not in the Majors

%=spent time with another organization in 2008, but not in the Majors

Guys who, in my opinion, have little-to-no chance to break camp with the team:

Atilano-almost 0 AA/AAA experience

Chico-terrible, plus we don't need another LH starter

Clippard-if he didnt get a chance last year, I doubt he will this year

Detwiler-really?

Estrada-ineffective last year, could use more seasoning

Martis-I will go out on a limb and say he has less than a 5% chance of making the team-he's just not ready

O'Connor-see "Chico, Matt" except add 3 years of age

Desmond-still hasn't been able to field or hit consistently well in the minors

Bernadina-too many OF

Davis-too many OF

Maxwell-needs some time in AA/AAA to get back to speed, still too many OF

Brownlie-good in AA last year, terrible in AAA as a 27 year old

Chacin-doesn't look like he has "it" back yet, maybe he never will

Jones-still can't hack it in AA

Wagner-terrible in his return to Columbus, would have to seriously impress the brass-although Jimmy Leatherpants loves the guy so he might get more of a shot anyways

Herrera-Not bad, just too many people ahead of him on the C depth chart

Molina-Bad, plus too many people ahead of him on the C depth chart

Bynum-Terrible in ML last year, not much better in AAA, behind a bunch on the MI depth chart

Whitney-Needs to find his power, chances are he'll have a Larry Broadway-showing

Hood-seriously?

Padilla-throwing the organizational fodder a bone

NRI guys with a chance, in my opinion to break camp with the team (percentages don't add up, just guesses):

Colome-50%

Larrison-25%

Ledezma-50%

Martin-25%

Sosa-25%

Towers-50%

Zimmermann-75%

Castillo-25%

Eldred-directly dependent on Johnson's health and Dmitri's weight, so basically 100%

Guzman-40%

Orr-50%

Young-25%

Langerhans-50%

Patterson-25%

Off the top of my head, the combination of most realistic and best 25-man roster we could have:

Pitchers: Balester (SP), Bergmann, Cabrera (SP), Hanrahan, Hill, Hinckley, Lannan (SP), Mock, Olsen (SP), Rivera, Young, Zimmermann (SP).

Catchers: Flores (starter), Nieves

Infielders: Belliard (platoon at 2B), C. Guzman (starter at SS), Harris (platoon at 2B/OF), Hernandez (platoon at 2B), Johnson (starter at 1B), Zimmerman (starter at 3B)

Outfielders: Dukes (starter at CF), Kearns (platoon at RF), Milledge (starter, split time between LF and RF), Pena (backup at LF), Willingham (starter at LF, backup at 1B)

Thoughts?

ZOMG WE GOT HIM!!!

COREY PATTERSON IS A NATIONAL!!!!!!!! Ok, that was unneccesary. JORGE "SAMMY AIN'T GOT NOTHIN' ON ME" SOSA IS A NATIONAL!!!!! Ouch, the awful signings keep on coming. At least these are no-risk minor league signings. (EDIT-MLBTR says Sosa will earn $850k and Patterson will earn $800k. Goodness gracious, will somebody give me the dang GM job? At least I wouldn't go around signing awful players to contracts more than the league minimum).

And it looks like we lost out on the main prize of the offseason, Mark Teixeira. It will either be Nicky J/Da Meat Hook/Brad Eldred (can I just call him Breldred?) or Adam Dunn at 1B. It's ok, I'd rather have O-Dog at 2B and Adam Dunn than just Tex.

ANOTHER EDIT-the Nats signed 3 other guys to minor league deals: 

IF Jose Castillo

LHP-Gustavo Chacin

C-Gustavo Molina

And I'll put up Sosa/Patterson's BR pages too:

RHP Jorge Sosa

CF Corey Patterson

Initial thoughts: All are meh. Chacin, Sosa and Patterson have all had exactly 1 standout season (and by standout I mean OPS+ or ERA+ above 100....so really just 1 "above average" season).

Who should we go after? Major League Bats Edition

Unlike the previous post, this is going to be completely 2009 Nats ML-based.

The Nats can compete in 2009 if they spend money correctly and effectively. Let me repeat that. The Nats can compete in 2009 if they spend money correctly and effectively. This is not going to be another "Maybe Next Year" post...the offseason has started, pieces have been added (Olsen, Willingham), removed (Chief, Wagner, Schroder, Bonifacio) and signed elsewhere (Affeldt, Dempster). Whether or not the Nats can compete with these players is really up to you, but I think that we're a few key pieces away from being competitive. And as much as I would love to get these key pieces through the system, we're still way far off from fielding a .500 team just with our own system guys (and minimal free agent/trade additions). Numbers are rounded after the third decimal place, so if you're keeping score at home and things don't add up, that's why.

Here goes:

SIGN

UTIL Jerry Hairston, Jr.-Look, I love Willie Harris as much as the next guy, but we need a super sub who is more experienced in the infield. Hairston has spent significant time over the last few years at three vital positions: 2B, SS and CF. We can guarantee him playing time (if we want to compete, we can't be starting Alberto Gonzalez all of the time). He played for $500k last year. I think we can get him anywhere from $1 mil to $1.5 mil.

1B/3B/PH Russ Branyan-He's the force off of the bench that we've been missing since Daryle Ward was traded. When you sign bench guys, you don't want ones that are all-around mediocre like Aaron Boone. I don't care that Branyan strikes out a ton-he makes up for it by hitting a crapload of home runs off of the bench. He made $800k last year. How about $1.5 mil for a great bench bat?

1B/OF Adam Dunn-Yes, I went there. Like it or not, he is one of the most productive batters in baseball. We need to stop dreaming about Nick Johnson now. Let him be our best bat off the bench (even better than Branyan!) and if he's healthy, move Dunn to the OF. I'm tired of counting on Johnson with no contingency plan. It's time to count on Dunn with Johnson (and then Willingham and then Da Meat Hook and then Branyan) as the contingency plan. Will 4 years, $48 mil be enough? If not, I'm down for 5 years, $60 mil.

Where would all of this leave us offensively? (note-in 2008, the ML average was exactly 6300 total PA, which averages out to exactly 700 per position. Pitchers averaged about 300 PA give or take, so about 5900 go to hitters (including PH appearances). My projections on PH plate appearances may be a bit off, but it's the best I could do. Generally speaking, I've tried to use "main guys" as I have a total of 21 guys that will be used in my projections. I've broken everything down by position as follows:

C: Jesus Flores-400 PA, Wil Nieves-250 PA, Luke Montz-50 PA

1B: Adam Dunn-400 PA, Nick Johnson-100 PA, Dmitri Young-100 PA, Josh Willingham-100 PA

2B: Jerry Hairston, Jr. -250 PA, Anderson Hernandez-250 PA, Ronnie Belliard-175 PA, Alberto Gonzales-25 PA

3B: Ryan Zimmerman-500 PA, Ronnie Belliard-75 PA, Russ Branyan-75 PA, Leonard Davis-50 PA

SS: Cristian Guzman-500 PA, Alberto Gonzales-100 PA, Jerry Hairston, Jr.-75 PA, Anderson Hernandez-25 PA

OF: Lastings Milledge-525 PA, Elijah Dukes-400 PA, Josh Willingham-350 PA, Austin Kearns-300 PA, Adam Dunn-200 PA, Wily Mo Pena-100 PA, Roger Bernadina-75 PA, Ryan Langerhans-75 PA, Jerry Hairston, Jr.-50 PA, Leonard Davis-25 PA

Now let's look at production by player. I've combined the MARCEL projections for 2009 with some of my own (based mostly on the 2008 season). Let's see how the Nats stack up.

Ronnie Belliard-300 PA-I have Ronnie hitting .274/.347/.441, amounting to 37.448 Runs Created.

Roger Bernadina-80 PA-I have the Rockin' Curacaoan hitting .261/.317/.377, amounting to 7.009 RC.

Russell Branyan-150 PA-I have our new Daryle Ward hitting .242/.342/.590, amounting to 22.812 RC.

Leonard Davis-60 PA-I have the Good Lenny hitting .260/.314/.468, amounting to 6.882 RC.

Elijah Dukes-400 PA-I'm playing it safe with Elijah because of injury concerns. I have him hitting .255/.383/.499, good for 54.631 RC.

Adam Dunn-600 PA-Dunn's down for .246/.391/.522, worth 82.202 RC.

Jesus Flores-400 PA-Does .262/.322/.412 sound right? If so, 43.797 RC.

Alberto Gonzalez-150 PA-.264/.333/.398 equals 15.963 RC.

Cristian Guzman-500 PA-.314/.344/.449, equaling 66.703 RC.

Jerry Hairston, Jr-375 PA-.265/.338/.398, totalling 39.318 RC.

Anderson Hernandez-300 PA-very close to Hairston, at .270/.337/.396-32.676 RC.

Nick Johnson-100 PA-This is where the projection is incredibly conservative, putting my end total of RC near the bottom of what it COULD become if Nicky J is healthy-.266/.412/.505, worth 20.488 RC.

Austin Kearns-350 PA-He's gonna bounce back, trust me-.258/.357/.430, worth 40.645 RC.

Ryan Langerhans-95 PA-.233/.378/.387 is worth 10.289 RC.

Lastings Milledge-525 PA-.274/.337/.451 is worth 62.965 RC.

Luke Montz-50 PA-.261/.343/.420 is a total shot in the dark (probably a little high), but over 50 PA it doesn't make too much of a difference. 5.610 RC.

Wil Nieves-250 PA-Won't impress with the bat this year, but good with the glove. I have him at .247/.305/.367, worth 22.535 RC.

Josh Willingham-450 PA-The new guy will impress some with his eye and power, but if my projections are correct, he will be the 5th or 6th best hitter in the lineup, perhaps taking some pressure off? .262/.359/.453, worth 54.528 RC.

Dmitri Young-100 PA-We know Da Meat can hit .282/.364/.466. That's worth 15.576 RC.

Ryan Zimmerman-500 PA-He's a good breakout candidate this year, but let's keep our projections realistic: .282/.351/.456, worth 64.580 RC.

All-together, this would provide 722.701 RC. Add in the pitchers' 300 PA at their 2008 production (.090/.133/.102), worth another 2.947 RC, and you end up with 725.648 RC. Consider the breakout possibilities from the likes of Dukes, Milledge, Zimmerman and Flores and that could rise even higher. Say we expect a little bit more production across the board and it ends up evening out at 730 RC. That would be a 89 run improvement over last year. Sure, it's not as much as you'd expect with so many changes, but that level of production, even with last year's poor overall pitching, would even out to 71 wins. So without improving our rotation a single bit, we would go 71-91. Come back by the weekend and I'll show you my plan to get the pitching up to par to get us up to (and maybe even over) .500.

We all know none of this is going to happen under the Lerner administration, but it's fun to dream, right?

Who should we go after? Minor League Edition

After looking through a few sources (and perusing the Baseball America list of minor league free agents), here are some guys I think might be worth going after. I have 79 guys.

I've put the guys into categories...don't yell at me if they fall under more than one. Feel free to name anyone you don't see on the list now that it's finished. If you see mistakes (links, ages, etc.) post them in the comments and I'll correct them. Please let me know if someone has signed and I haven't noted it. I'd like to see some discussion on who ya'll think we should go after.

Signings are marked through Dec. 8. Please post a link in comments if you have confirmed the signing of any of these players!

Former ML'ers
RHP Brandon Medders-29-Rough 2008 in AAA but has a 3.52 career ML ERA in 151 IP.
OF Jeff DaVanon-35-career .259/.349/.400 slash line in the majors ain't bad at all. Pretty good plate discipline as well.
RHP Jeff Weaver-32-Not good since 2005, but why not throw him a bone?
3B Morgan Ensberg-34-Had 20+ HR in 3 of his 4 full seasons in ML. Draws a lot of walks, doesn't strike out TOO much...could be this year's Aaron Boone (but better).
RHP Oscar Villareal-28-Won 10 games out of the Diamondbacks' bullpen as a 21-year-old rookie in 2001. Rough 2008, but still worth having around...you can NEVER have enough relievers!!! Career 3.86 ML ERA in 336 innings tells me to give this man a job.
RHP Tim Corcoran-31-Had a decent 2006 in ML but a bad '05 and '07. Wasn't too bad in '08 in AA/AAA and was pretty good in '07. Maybe the former 44th rounder has something left in the tank.
RHP Jack Cassel-28-"Cassel is Carlos Silva - his fastball tops out at 88, he’s got a sinker that gets an average amount of groundballs, he doesn’t have an out pitch, but he tries to make up for it by pounding the strike zone. Maybe you don’t think we need two Carlos Silva’s, but at the very least, he should stand as a glaring example of how stupid it is to throw money at veteran guys whose best skill is “eats innings”. Cassel’s every bit as good, and unlike Silva, he doesn’t cost $48 million to sign."-U.S.S Mariner. Matt Cassel's brother fared pretty well in his rookie year in 2007 with San Diego, but was knocked around for Houston in 2008. Cassel isn't going to strike out (or walk) too many guys, but he gives up a ton of hits (although most are singles).
RHP Mike Koplove-32-ML career ERA+ of 120 (with only 2 seasons under 100, one of which he only pitched 6 innings) to go with an ERA of 3.82. Had nice 2007 and '08 campaigns in AAA, with 2.50 and 3.46 ERA's, respectively. Doesn't walk many guys, decent amount of K's and could provide a veteran presence in our young bullpen. EDIT-signed with Philly.
LHP Erasmo Ramirez-32-Decent K rate, not many walks, hittable. Too bad he gets righties out better than lefties!
RHP Scott Strickland-33-Career ML ERA: 3.34. Had some injuries, but in 2006 and 2008, he posted ERA's of 2.10 and 3.53, respectively to go with WHIP's of 1.07 and 1.16. Worth a shot.

SS Adam Everett-32-"Everyone knows of Adam Everett and his defensive wizardry. Injuries slowed his 2008 season, but he was still a better defender than Brendan Harris. Everett would make a fine shortstop (1.9 wins) or second baseman (1.6), although he is on the wrong side of 30."-Beyond the Box Score. Sadly, he's terrible with the bat. Would be a nice backup/late-in-the-game defensive replacement, though, and I'd much rather have him than keep Pete Orr.

1B Ben Broussard-32-Decent ML success in the past (career OPS+ of 104, career high of 127) and a decent career slash line against righties: .270/.331/.462. We have to sign at least one of these 1B/OF types, preferably a bunch for when our annual injury attack happens.

1B Chris Shelton-28-Speaking of 1B/OF types we should go after, we reach Chris Shelton. Here's what Beyond the Box Score has to say about him: "Most casual fans will remember Shelton as 'That one no-named guy who hit a lot of homeruns then fell off.' Well, that's not entirely true. Even in 2006 Shelton had an above average OPS. Oddly Shelton has a better major league career OPS versus righties than lefties." Shelton has a career 111 OPS+ in the majors and is still only 28. Definitely worth a few of Uncle Ted's bucks. EDIT-signed with Seattle.

RHP Kevin Cameron-29-This guy gets it done, quite simply. His ML WHIP (1.574) and walk (5.56 BB/9) numbers are discouraging, but his career ML ERA is 2.91 in 68 IP. And his minor league numbers are much better in terms of WHIP and walks (as they should be, but they're pretty significantly better). EDIT-Signed with Oakland.

RHP Ruddy Lugo-28-Has bounced around a bit and has had random, moderate success in a few places (2006 in the majors, 2005 and 2007 in the minors). A key player in my Baseball Mogul 2008 dynasty.

1B Chris "Remember Me?" Richard-34-Yeah, he's still around. Remember when he had 13 homers in 56 games for the Orioles in 2000? I'm sure O's Exec does. EDIT-signed with Tampa Bay.

Former top prospects
RHP Tim Spooneybarger-30-Cool name, still recovering from 2005 Tommy John surgery (7 and 1/3 innings pitched in 2008, 3 from 2004-07...no really, 3 total innings pitched from 2004-07), in a band with A.J. Burnett (according to Wikipedia).
RHP Franklyn German-29-Huge (6'7", 298 lbs), throws 100 MPH, has more career BB than K, but still a 4.25 career ML ERA.
RHP J.D. Martin-26-"Martin is a command specialist who throws strikes and has a good enough change-up to miss bats occasionally. He came back from a long series of arm injuries to carve up Double-A, and while his stuff makes him more of a swing-man/long relief type, he could potentially turn into an okay #5 starter option."-U.S.S. Mariner. Good career ERA (3.50), better 2008 ERA (2.41). 35th overall pick of 2001 ML draft. EDIT-Signed with the Nats!
OF Freddy Guzman-28-Speed? Check. Patience? Check. ML success? Nope. But a .277/.355/.371 career minor league slash line and a .272/.337/.394 slash line this year (with 71 steals) makes him worth taking a chance on. Lots of doubles and triples, too.
RHP Jose Capellan-28-Called a "flamethrower" by Mets Today, can throw 100 MPH according to Wikipedia. Maybe Randy can straighten him out.
RHP John Van Benschoten-28-The 8th overall pick in the 2001 draft has been LeVale Speigner-esque in his parts of 3 seasons in the bigs, allowing 100 runs (92 earned) in only 90 innings pitched. Ouch. His minor league numbers continue to get worse little by little, but they're still decent enough to make me think he's got SOMETHING in the tank. Maybe try him out as a reliever? EDIT-signed with the Chi Sox.
OF Chris Duffy-28-Decent ML slash line of .269/.328/.361 for his career. Beyond the Box Score says Duffy is worth 1.3 wins in either corner outfield spot. Nice, but only if we don't keep Langerhans, who is better with the bat and the glove.

LHP Erick Threets-27-Still young, awful control (another Randy project). I pined for him back when the Giants DFA'd him in early June on MLBTR.com but for some reason, nobody picked him up on waivers. Ridiculously bad BB:K ratios for someone with decent K numbers make it seem like he's a lost cause, though. EDIT-signed with LAD.

2B/OF Victor Diaz-27-Good enough numbers in the minors throughout his career, but surprisingly has a 106 career ML OPS+ in 147 games. Hasn't played 2B since 2003, so don't expect to use him there.

RHP Yorman Bazardo-24-Something wasn't right for Yorman in 2008. In basically the same amount of innings he pitched in '07 and '06, his hits and home runs allowed soared way above his career average. A commenter here says he has hit 98 on the radar gun. Not that you can believe any commenter, but I'm just sayin'...

1B Wes Bankston-25-"Wes Bankston is a former top prospect turned bust. He got some time in Oakland last season, but didn't showcase his impressive splits versus righties (.868) which would make him a decent platoon mate at DH/1B."-Beyond the Box Score. Basically the same as every guy on this list. Had a .280/.328/.496 slash line in AAA this year. From the looks of it, he's never lasted a full season (due to injury, I'm assuming). Doesn't strike out too much for a slugger, but doesn't walk enough either. Also a key piece to my 2010 World Series champion Tampa Bay Rays on Baseball Mogul 2008.

3B/SS Joel Guzman-24-Sure, he (still) hasn't amounted to much with the bat. But he's only 24. And he was a top prospect once. Hey, can't a guy dream that the next A-Rod is going to come out of minor league free agency?

Career minor leaguers
OF Bronson Sardinha-26-Looks like an average player across the board, with a .268/.348/.407 career slash line. Usually good for around 10-15 HR and SB. Drafted as a SS, but hasn't played infield since 2004. We could use our own "Flyin' Hawaiian."
RHP Matt Peterson-27-His Achilles heel has always been walks, with 376 career free bases in 867 and 1/3 innings pitched. In 2008, however, he only had 6 in 30 and 2/3 innings. Did he finally figure out how to throw the ball over the plate or was it the small sample size? Worth a shot, IMO.
OF Adam Greenberg-28-With one career PA in the bigs, it's hard for me to put him under "former Major Leaguers" but with his story, you can't really call it more than that. He got beaned in the head in his only major league at bat in 2005. He had an awful 2006, hitting .209/.342/.272, but I would have to believe that was because he was scared of getting nailed in the head again. His numbers rebounded in 2007 to .266/.373/.428 before falling back to .271/.361/.347 this past season, but the high OBP makes me believe he would be a worthwhile pickup.
1B/OF Mitch Jones-31-The epitome of a career minor leaguer: 200 career HR, but 0 career ML games. Career AAA slash line of .262/.345/.527, but with more than 1 K/game over his career, not sure that he would be anything more than a AAAA guy (although with 35 HR in 385 AB in the last 2 years, he might be worth a shot anyways). EDIT-signed with the Dodgers.
OF Joe Gaetti-27-Believe it or not, Gary Gaetti's son is probably a better hitter than he was. Joe has hit (and hit well for that matter) at every single level he's played at, with a sub .800 OPS once (in 49 games at AA in 2007, the same year where he had an .845 OPS in 74 AAA games). With a .903 OPS in 2008, he's definitely worth a shot.

RHP Cory Doyne-27-To be honest, I have no clue who this guy is. But since being converted from a starter to a reliever in 2004, Doyne has been pretty lights out: 235 and 2/3 IP, 5.61 H/9, 4.47 BB/9 (too many), 10.08 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 1.12 WHIP, 2.52 ERA. He's got 4 saves, 6 hits allowed, 3 BB and 6 K in 7 and 2/3 shutout innings in the Venezuelan Winter League as well. And if that's not enough, couldn't we use another reliever who wears a flat-brimmed cap?

RHP Lee Gronkiewicz-30-Career minor league worsts: 3.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.75 K/9. Career minor league averages: 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.46 BB/9. This is your Moneyball kinda guy-he's only 5'10", weighs 210 pounds ("not a jeans model" as Billy Beane would say), but how can you argue with those numbers? He had Tommy John surgery in April, but he'll be ready to play at some point this year. I want my team to be the team to finally give Gronk a real shot.

OF Wayne Lydon-27-Strikes out way too much for a "burner", but would be a nice guy to have when September call-ups roll around. Career 95/122 SB at the AAA level (78%), 427/531 (80%) overall. EDIT-Resigned with the Blue Jays.

Former Nats farmhands/players
RHP Emiliano Fruto-24-Acquired in the Jose Vidro trade, dealt for Chris Carter who was dealt for Wily Mo Pena. Hasn't been good since 2006. Ranked by NFA as the Nats' #6 prospect in July of 2007.
OF Jason Dubois-30-Spent time in Columbus in 2008 (and sucked), moved along to play for the Cubs' AAA affiliate, put up .307/.399/.664 slash line.
RHP Tomo Ohka-33-Traded to Milwaukee for Junior Spivey in 2005, ironically the last year he was effective. Maybe now that Frank is gone, we can convince him to come back. A switch-hitter. EDIT-signed with Cleveland.
1B Matt Whitney-25-2007 Rule V draftee, not as impressive in 2008 (10 HR, .760 OPS) as 2007 (32 HR, .909 OPS). Walk numbers are up, strikeout numbers are down, and with Broadway and Jimenez likely leaving the organization, we'll have room for him. EDIT-Whitney signed with the Nats. Who called it? :)
3B/OF Tony Blanco-27-Am I kidding? Strangely, no. The 2005 Nats' Rule V draftee spent almost all of 2008 with the Tulsa Drillers, the AA affiliate of the Colorado Rockies. They taught him to drill the ball there, because a .323/.385/.587 slash line, 67 XBH and 88 RBI in only 103 games is pretty darn good. Okay, it was as a 26-year-old in AA, but maybe he's finally turning that raw talent into on-the-field performance?
1B/OF Val Pascucci-30-"Pascucci is a right-handed Todd Linden with worse defense. He can hit a fastball a long way, though, and he’s good enough to be someone’s platoon partner."-U.S.S. Mariner. Career slash line of .285/.404/.524 in AAA, including a .280/.403/.508 line this year. We have to find a spot for this guy (note-he was drafted by the Expos and played with the organization through 2004).
2B Bernie Castro-29-I don't know why, but I always loved this guy. Maybe it's because his name is Bernie. Maybe it's because Bernie is short for Bernabel. Or maybe it's just because I have a heart for little guys who are fast (basically the anti-me). His batting average went down a little in 2008, so for a contact hitter it made all of his stats look awful. But his BB and K numbers are rapidly moving toward each other, which is a great (and promising) sign. Bring Back Bernie!!
OF Brandon Watson-27-Again, I don't know why, but I liked Watson as well. After I got past his stupid "Hollywood" attitude, that is. As much as I hate guys like Nook Logan who could never get on base but had great speed, I always beg for them on my team. Please, for the sake of the Nationals, keep Willy Taveras out of my grasp!
2B/3B/SS D'Angelo Jimenez-31-I will never forget the nice little .245/.379/.373 line he put up for the Nats in 2007. Sure, it's nothing special, but after hitting .040/.172/.040 through his first 31 plate appearances, it was a pleasant surprise (for a reference point, he hit .312/.442/.481 in his 97 plate appearance after that awful start...and unrelated, but semi-similar-Elijah Dukes hit .038/.188/.077 in his first 32 plate appearances as a National and .293/.413/.528 in his 298 plate appearances afterwards).

OF Ryan Langerhans-29-We all know Langerhans. I once hated him because of his awful 2007 season, but learned to love him for what he does best: defense. This article from FanGraphs (via FJB at the previous link) really shows how valuable Langerhans is. And his bat isn't HORRIBLE anymore (and it was actually above league average in 2008). I want him back in the Curly W in 2009! EDIT-resigned with the Nats.

RHP Claudio Vargas-30-This guy's been around forever and is still 30? He hasn't been "above average" in terms of ERA+ since his rookie year, but has never really strayed much away from average.

RHP Chris Schroder-30-Goodness, did we toy with this guy this year. He almost had as many call-ups (and send-downs)-3-as games pitched-4. He had a very good 2007 in the majors and was alright this year in AAA. I don't blame him if he wants to go somewhere where he'll at least know where he'll be pitching every day, but I'd like him back. EDIT-signed a ML deal with Oakland. Good for Schrodes.

OF Chris Snelling-27-We know he can hit, but staying healthy is the problem. Sign him to a minor league deal, call him up to the majors and let him get as many games in as possible before getting hurt. Just don't count on him for any more than 5 games.

3B/OF Yurendell DeCaster-29-The Rockin' Curacaoan should be brought back for his performance, but also to continue to mentor fellow Curacaoans (is that how you spell it?) Roger Bernadina and Shairon Martis.

1B Luis Antonio Jimenez-26-Did nothing but hit this year. Okay, that's not true. He did play 1B some and walked some, but he did his fair share of slugging for Harrisburg and Columbus. BB numbers going up, K numbers going down...I like what I see.

LHP Arnie Munoz-26-Spent most of the year on the shelf with a shoulder strain. Pitched well in the minors in 2007. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back.

LHP Larry Broadway-29-Not a typo. 2008 numbers: 6 and 2/3 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP. Makes for a 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 0 BB/9. Why not? He's not making the majors as a slugging first baseman. "Broadway is a 6-foot-4 left-hander who pitched his freshman year at Duke. The side-armer made a pitching appearance earlier this season against Louisville"-Syracuse.com, "The Nationals might be wise to let Broadway pitch here and there to see if maybe he can standout on the mound. Move him around to a few other positions to see if he could handle himself at other spots on the diamond. They might find that there's something about Broadway that does stand out, after all."-Scout.com, plus a full article about him as a pitcher on Fredericksburg.com.

LOOGYs
Royce Ring-28-"Ring didn't pitch too much for the Braves, but was decent, not nearly as good as his major league career totals indicate he could be however. The former San Diego State closer throws in the upper 80's and has pitched for three teams since 2005."-Beyond the Box Score
"Ring is a former first round pick with a nasty curveball and a sinking fastball that gets a lot of grounders. His command is a problem, but he’s got two major league pitches and he’s left-handed. For a team short on bullpen lefty’s, he’d be a nice NRI to spring training."-U.S.S. Mariner
Carmen Pignatiello-26-rough 2008 campaign but still did okay against lefties. Walks a lot of lefties but strikes out more.
Ian Ostlund-30-"Ostlund is 30 years old and a Tommy John Surgery survivor (yes, survivor). Last season he got 11% swinging strikes and had a 2.94 FIP, impressive, add in a 2.18 BB/9 and there is little to question, except his GB%. Ostlund only gets 36.55 grounders, but he didn't give up a ton of homeruns. Odds are that changes a bit in the majors, but there's something decent about him considering the swinging strikes amount."-Beyond the Box Score.
I guess TJ surgery is the reason this guy has never gotten a shot in the majors. Career 3.18 ERA in the minors (2.87 in two AAA seasons). VT grad. EDIT-Ostlund signed with STL.
Mark McLemore-28-No, not THAT Mark McLemore. Extreme fly-ball pitcher. Looks like he missed all of 2008. Injured? Retired? Who knows...
Carmen Cali-30-"Cheap left-handed reliever candidate. Gets a lot of ground balls, but control is spotty"-OutPerSwing.com "Cali is a 30 year old who sits in the lower-90's. Last seen in the majors with the Twins in 2007, and the Cardinals in 2004/2005 Cali's control has abandoned him in his major league stints. He gets nearly 11% swinging strikes, and nearly 55% groundballs. Cali is at least worth a look as a non-roster invitee. Also has the best name of the list: Carmen Salvatore Cali."-Beyond the Box Score. EDIT-signed with the Dodgers.
Stephen Randolph-34-"Randolph...last spent time in the majors for the Astros in 2007, and in 2003/2004 for the Diamondbacks. He too sits in the low 90's, but got the most strikes swinging of anyone else on this list last season with 15.9%, he walked quite a few (nearly 6 per nine) but gave up only 0.38 homeruns per nine despite a 38 GB%."-Beyond the Box Score. A forgettable part of his forgettable 2005 campaign was for the Nats' then-AAA affiliate, the New Orleans Zephyrs, where he allowed 31 earned runs in 29 innings (think LeVale Speigner in 2007, but worse). My opinion on Randolph isn't incredibly favorable...He's almost 35-if he was ever going to be a productive major leaguer, it would have happened by now. Then again, so could have been said about Type A free agent Darren Oliver...
Sean Henn-27-former top prospect, has been pretty awful in the majors, but minor league numbers are still semi-promising. Could become another Charlie Manning...woohoo?

Daniel Haigwood-25-a young guy with decent minor league numbers (K/9 over 9, ERA of 3.68), but tragically walks too many guys. If only we could sign all of the "walks too many guys" and one of them figures it out. EDIT-signed with Pittsburgh.

Mike Gosling-28-another example of K's going up and BB's going down. Don't confuse his ML experience (92 career ML IP) for ML success (4.79 ERA, 1.848 WHIP, 1:1 K:BB ratio), though.

John Rheinecker-29-if he is used strictly as a LOOGY, he'll be great. If not, he'll be horrible (career ML splits here). "John Rheinecker is perhaps the most interesting of the list. A former first (actually supplemental) round pick of the Oakland Athletics, Rheinecker was dealt in March of 2006 in a deal that netted the Cubs Freddie Bynum, the Athletics Juan Dominguez, and the Rangers John Koronka as well as Rheinecker. In 2006 Rheinecker was primarily used as a starter (13 of his 21 appearances), his starts would be curbed in 2007 but one thing remained: struggles against right-handed hitting. Rheinecker missed 2008 due to a surgery to remove a rib as well as arthroscopic shoulder surgery that caused him to miss almost the entirety of the season. Astoundingly good against lefties, Rheinecker is only 29 and pitches in the mid-80's, but still finds a way to get more than 9% swinging strikes."-Beyond the Box Score

Heath Phillips-27-I've never seen him play, but here's what Beyond the Box Score had to say about him in 2007. Rising WHIP scares me, I'd say lay off.

Aaron Boone-types (Corner IFs who can hit)
1B/3B/OF Mike Cervenak-32-He's about as old as Aaron Boone and has 0.3% of Boone's ML experience, but who cares about experience anyways? Good AVG, ok plate discipline, doubles power. EDIT-Resigned with the Phillies.

Mike Restovich-types (AAAA 1B/OF types)
1B Scott Thorman-26-Pretty awful for the Braves in 400+ AB's from 2006-07. LH hitter, will keep getting chances as a platoon guy, especially at his age. EDIT-signed with Milwaukee.
1B Kevin Barker-33-has had 4 cups of coffee (1999, 2000, 2002, 2006). Career .272/.356/.476 line in the minors (to go with 226 career HR), LH hitter, VT grad. EDIT-signed with the Reds.
1B/OF Todd Linden-28-"Linden is one of those classic tweeners; a guy with just enough bat to kill Triple-A but not enough to earn a job as a corner OF/1B, especially since he’s not a great defender. But he’s a switch hitter, he can take a walk, and has at least gap power. If anyone’s a candidate to pull a Ryan Ludwick and develop late, it’s Linden."-U.S.S. Mariner. The career .231/.303/.335 major league slash line won't cut it, but he definitely wouldn't be a bad guy to have hanging around AAA for when Nick Johnson gets hurt. And you can ALWAYS use a switch-hitter.
OF Nick Gorneault-29-Spent the last 4 years in AAA hitting .275/.350/.489. Good enough with the bat, good enough with the glove, could be a nice 5th OF. We could definitely do worse than Gorneault...looks like a Restovich clone to me.
OF Ray Sadler-28-Classic AAAA outfielder...20ish homers, way too many K's, not enough BB's to outweigh them.
OF John-Ford Griffin-29-Called a "free swinging AAAA outfielder" by Mets Today, Griffin is pretty much as advertised. He hits righties very well (.305/.387/.557 this year) but basically just loses his power against lefties (.333/.377/.386). Not too shabby. In 23 career ML at-bats, Griffin has a .304/.370/.696 slash line. If we weren't overrun with outfielders, I would definitely say go for him, but if we can teach him 1B, he could become a valuable lefty bat off of the bench.

1B Justin Huber-26-.271/.347/.470 splits over his career in AAA, but was awful in 2008 (although he didn't play a whole lot-only 61 games in AAA and 33 in ML). Needs to improve his BB/K ratio, but he would be nice AAA depth.

1B/OF Paul McAnulty-28-Career major league numbers aren't TOO terrible (.208/.324/.330). Looks like a very disciplined hitter with a little pop, best suited for the bench. EDIT-signed a minor league deal with the Red Sux.

1B Brett Harper-27-Hit .315/.338/.577 in 2008, his first year of AAA, but his K/BB ratio is awful.

1B/OF Garrett Jones-27-BB numbers slowly creeping up, K numbers slowly creeping down, has always had the raw power to be an ML slugger.

Rare Commodities (Catchers and Middle Infielders)
2B/3B/SS Robinson Chirinos-24-Could be even more rare-apparently training at C in Arizona. That blog post also speculates Chirinos will return to the Cubs, as they wouldn't send him to Arizona only to have him leave as a minor league FA. Hasn't hit much above A, but still couldn't ignore the .283/.431/.475 slash line he put up in 120 A+ AB's this year.
2B/SS Erick Almonte-31-I don't really know why I like this guy so much (maybe I have him confused with Danny Almonte?), but once again you have a guy whose walk numbers are finally rising and strikeout numbers are falling. Might be too late for him to turn it around, but it's not like we have great organizational depth at SS.
2B/3B Adam Morrissey-27-Good batting average/OBP combo. Not much power, but he's a 2B so that's semi-expected. Top Prospect Alert said something probably 4 or 5 years ago that might hold true: "Odds are, Morrissey will be a player that is slow to break into the big leagues, probably earning a regular roster spot closer to age 26 or 27 than age 24. He may very well have a decent major league career, but it is doubtful that he will ever earn much more than a utility role with a big league team." He's 27 now, so it's make or break time for that prediction of him.
C J.D. Closser-24-You know, .239/.320/.367 in the majors for a catcher isn't really that bad. His power seems to have left him over the years, but he also hasn't played a full season...ever? But with only 148 games played over the past 2 seasons, I think it might be safe to assume injury sapped some of his power. I want this guy to compete for a backup job. He can hit...and at the very least, if his hitting starts to suck, he at least can walk (and doesn't strike out too much).

My final top 10:

10-IF D'Angelo Jimenez

9-RHP Mike Koplove (Signed with PHI)

8-RHP Oscar Villareal

7-1B/OF Val Pascucci/1B/OF John-Ford Griffin

6-LHP Ian Ostlund (signed with STL)/LHP Royce Ring

5-OF Joe Gaetti

4-RHP J.D. Martin (signed with the Nats)

3-RHP Cory Doyne

2-OF Ryan Langerhans (signed with the Nats)

1-1B Chris Shelton (signed with Seattle)

Honorable mention:

Gronk (missed because of injury concerns)

Jose Capellan (missed because I don't know if he can throw strikes)

J.D. Closser (missed because of his lack of recent success)

Wil Cordero (no, seriously, he was on the list!)

Notes-
-2009 Opening Day age listed
-The 2001 sandwich round will be made famous by my list: #34-Bronson Sardinha, #35-J.D. Martin, #37-John Rhinecker, #41-Todd Linden. Not to mention #33-Jeff Mathis and #38-David Wright.

-Is Langerhans really a free agent? The 2007-08 offseason was his first year of arbitration. He was never released (was outrighted to AAA and cleared waivers). But Nationals.com lists him as a free agent. But BaseballAmerica.com has on their transaction blog that the Nats signed him. No news on this, will need to dig deeper.

Believe it or not, but it could be worse

I'd say it's much worse to be an Astros fan at this point than a Nats fan. Despite being 9.5 games (and 6 teams) out of the Wild Card and 12.5 games (and 3 teams) out of the NL Central lead, the Astros keep trading prospects for mediocre ML guys. First they traded Chad Reineke to San Diego for Randy Wolf, and today they traded Matthew Cusick to the Yankees for LaTroy Hawkins. Wolf and Hawkins are both past their prime (with ERA+s of 82 and 73, respectively) while Reineke and Cusick both look semi-promising (Reineke has a career minor league ERA of 3.71 and 8.8 K/9 in his fifth minor league season while Cusick has a career OPS of .835 through a year and a half).

But then again, when I read this off of Nationals.com and this from Nationals Journal, I begin to wonder.
The key quote from the Nationals.com article:

Indeed, Nationals pitchers -- especially young ones in the Majors and Minors -- are attractive to other teams. Bowden declined to mention the hurlers that teams want, but a baseball source said Jason Bergmann, Garrett Mock, Ross Detwiler and Adrian Alaniz have been mentioned in trade discussions.

Wat. Trading Detwiler would be one of the more incompetent things, EVER. His value is at an all-time low. Let him regain his value. Bergmann is one guy who I can see going nuts with like a 2.50 ERA if he's dealt. Keep him. Mock is more of a fringe ML guy and Alaniz is still way far away (and doesn't have incredibly impressive stuff), so I would understand moving either of them for other prospects. But Bergmann and Detwiler shouldn't be moved until they're at peak value.

And then we have this (from Nats Journal):

Chico Harlan: Speaking of pitching/progress, has any been made with (first-round pick) Aaron Crow in negotiations?

Bowden: No.

CH: Do you think you'll have him signed by the Aug. 15 deadline?

JB: Don't know that. We're working hard trying to sign all the guys that are unsigned.

If we don't sign all of our top 5 picks (and when I say all, I mean Aaron Crow, Danny Espinoza, Graham Hicks and Adrian Nieto), I'll go nuts. "The Plan" is worthless if there is no stream of top-of-the-line talent into. Having the same pick next year would both set us back a whole 'nother year while at the same time making us the laughingstock of baseball (maybe even moreso than the Mariners and Astros franchises...note that 4 of the teams Randy Johnson has played for are run by incompetent nitwits...MON, SEA, HOU, NYY. Arizona, watch out. If Byrnes ever leaves, you're screwed).

Maybe Next Year? Part Five: The Bench

By now, you know the drill. Read up on all of the previous "Maybe Next Year" posts here.

Tonight's edition is the bench. Keep in mind that the bench predicted is done assuming the starting lineup is how I set it here and also assuming the pitching staff consists of 5 starters and 7 relievers, leaving us with 5 bench players on a normal basis. Due to the extreme right-handedness of my lineup (Guzman, a switch hitter, and Dunn, a left handed hitter, were the only two non-righties in my lineup), the bench will consist of 3 lefties and two righties. This really only made a difference in my final pick, which I'll talk about more later. I'll withold 2009 predictions for these guys, as it's kinda silly to predict them considering I did the starters' predictions based on about a full season of play.

R/R Luke Montz-C/1B (no ML contract yet, will cost $400k or less in '09)
At first I had Nieves, but why not Montz? The kid hit .282/.368/.536 to start the year in Harrisburg and has hit .260/.328/.462 in AA and above in his career, to go with 42 XBH's in 407 at bats. As long as the walks continue to rise and the K's continue to fall, Montz will be a servicable backup catcher and first baseman.

L/L Nick Johnson-1B (under contract, $5.5 mil in '09)
We all know what we get with Nicky J: a metric ton of walks, decent power, great defense and multiple trips to the DL. When Nick The Stick (or Slick Nick) is on the DL, I suppose Leonard Davis, Justin Maxwell or Mike Daniel get their chances to prove themselves (Casto will play more 1B then). Side note: Nick Johnson stole 16 bases in A ball? WAT?

R/R Wily Mo Pena-OF (option-$5 mil for the Nats to pick up, $2 mil for Pena to pick up, $2 mil likely)
Do we have to keep him? Unfortunately, yes. We'll decline our part of the option (if for some reason we accept, I'll go bezerk), but Pena will undoubtedly pick up his part, as $2 mil is a nice bounty for a pathetic 35 OPS+ (Odalis Perez has a 38 OPS+ this year). Pena gets $1 mil for each HR he has hit. Meh. Maybe next year he'll return to the Wily Mo we hoped we would get, the one who put up OPS+ above 100 from 2004-06 (and with the Nats in 37 games last year). Maybe he'll get back on track with his "top comparables" on Baseball-Reference.com (Cory Snyder, Austin Kearns, Phil Plantier, Albert Belle, Mike Marshall, Jermaine Dye, Frank Thomas, Preston Wilson, George Bell and Willie Stargell round out the top 10). I'd say expect more homers, continued poor defense and a different '10 uniform in Wily Mo's future.

L/R Willie Harris-2B/3B/SS/OF (resigned, $1 mil for 1 year)
Willie's a pretty big no-brainer. He's got speed, plays plenty of positions, and has been a decent player this year. He's still only at .221/.335/.379 over the year, but he has hit .273/.385/.429 since June 1. In terms of contract estimation, we'll just say Harris receives a $200k raise over his 2008 salary to make it an even $1 mil.

L/R Kory Casto-1B/3B/OF (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Kory barely edged out Leonard Davis in my book, but his left-handedness and experience gives him the edge here. He plays above-average defense at 4 positions (1B/3B/LF/RF). He hasn't swung the bat great overall, but is hitting .294/.368/.412 in July. I would be very happy with that production over a full season. I'd expect more along the lines of .280/.340/.400 though. And after seeing Ryan Langerhans for most of 2007, I would still be very happy with that.

The odd men out: Leonard Davis, Justin Maxwell and Mike Daniel (lack of high-level experience), Ryan Langerhans, Wil Nieves and Peterson T. Orr (lack of success in the Majors, low-ceiling) and (needs to start wherever he is).

Total Bench Cost: $9.6 mil (estimate), most of which goes to Johnson at $5.5 mil.

Check in tomorrow for Maybe Next Year? Part Six: The Bullpen!

Maybe Next Year? Part Four: The Pitching Rotation

Hopefully by now, you've read parts one, two and three.

Once again, what I'm trying to show all of you is that 1) The Nationals could (theoretically) be a .500 team next year and 2) They don't have to spend a whole lot of money to do it. They just have to spend that money in the right way. Responsibly. I'd like to point out again that I get all contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's crazy in-depth, accurate and (better yet), incredibly user friendly.

Without further ado, your 2009 Washington Nationals' pitching staff:
STARTING ROTATION
1) RHP Tim Redding (arbitration-eligible, ~$2 mil)
Redding is the "ace" of the Nats' staff filled with #3/4 pitchers. In 198 and 2/3 innings pitched for the Nats in 2007-08, Redding sports a 3.76 ERA and a 10-9 record. 11 of his 20 starts this year have been quality starts, but he's allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in all but 2 of his starts (and 3 or fewer in all but 5). The Nats are 15-5 in his starts. In reality, a team's "ace" is the guy who, when he pitches, gives the team the best chance to win. It's a tossup between Redding and Lannan in that category, but you can't really argue with W's. I know John Lannan gets 2.75 fewer runs per game in run support, but a 15-5 team record when Redding starts (compared with a 21-55 record in games he doesn't start) is pretty impressive.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 12-9, 32 GS, 183 IP, 3.68 ERA, 70BB/120K

2) LHP John Lannan (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Lannan is intriguing. He doesn't strike out many batters (4.41 K/9 for his career, 5.01 K/9 this season) and allows a decent number of baserunners (career WHIP of 1.344, 1.283 this year), yet still puts up decent numbers in terms of ERA (4.15 career ERA, 3.40 this year) and ERA+ (118 career ERA+, 125 this year). He doesn't throw particularly hard. But why bother arguing against results? The kid has the intangibles to pitch in the majors. He keeps the ball in the yard and goes out and gives you a quality start most times he's out there (13 of 18 starts this year were 6 innings or more with 3 earned runs or less). And somehow the Nats are still only 5-13 in games started by the 23-year-old lefty. Meh.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 8-12, 33 GS, 185 IP, 3.90 ERA, 65BB/95K

3) RHP Jason Bergmann (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Bergmann is about as intriguing as Lannan (to me, at least). Here's a guy who only started 21 of his 104 games in A+ or above (11 of which came in 2007-08, after reaching the big leagues). It appears that his time as a reliever stunted his endurance, as he falls apart after the 5th inning, with about a 90 OPS+ allowed over innings 1-5 (with 100 being a league-average pitcher) as opposed to about a 143 OPS+ allowed during innings 6-8 (which is probably better-sounding than what it really is, considering these are career numbers and include games he came in as a reliever). If we can get the Mann on a better strength and conditioning plan that allows him to pitch 6 effective innings each game rather than 5, we have ourselves another Tim Redding, just with better K/9 numbers (7.19 K/9 as opposed to Redding's 6.11). Here's to some more (and improved) BERGMANNIA in 2009! He's my breakout candidate.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 15-7, 33 GS, 197 IP, 3.42 ERA, 50BB/160K

4) LHP Oliver Perez (FA signing, $5 mil for 1 year)
Why not replace one lefthanded starter named O. Perez with a younger one? Oliver is equally intriguing (time to invest in a thesaurus, no?) as Bergmann and Lannan but has hit both peaks (2.98 ERA and 239 K in 196 innings pitched in 2004) and pits (6.55 ERA in 112 and 2/3 innings pitched in 2006) in his career already. Why is he worth picking up? He is having a season this year that looks average at best on paper (6-5 for a good team, 4.44 ERA) but also looks like an abberation if you search deeper. Perez's H/9 is actually better this year (7.58) than his career average (8.08) and last year's (7.78). He's just been a little wild, with career highs in HBP and WP at the ASB, and a little unlucky. His K's are a little bit down and his walks are a little bit up, but those things are correctable. This guy's got sick talent and is just going to be 27 at the beginning of next year. Guarantee him some money and innings and let him try and rebuild himself for a year under a new pitching coach. What's there to lose?
Realistic 2009 prediction: 13-8, 33 GS, 194 IP, 3.57 ERA, 85BB/205K

5) RHP Collin Balester (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Balester has the most talent in the system. We've seen flashes of it in the first 3 games, with a 100% ridiculous line of .154/.185/.154 against the first time through the lineup (comparable to Tim Redding's career hitting line of .145/.168/.173). But, unfortunately, baseball games are 9 innings rather than 6. And Balester allows a .387/.487/.710 line against during innints 4-6 (semi-comparable to Sammy Sosa's 64 HR 2001 season, where he hit .328/.437/.737). The sample size is small (3 games and 73 career batters faced), but Balester needs to be efficient later on in games next year just like Bergmann.
Realistic 2009 prediction: 6-8, 22 GS, 130 IP, 4.19 ERA, 45BB/100K

So there you have it...our $9.2 mil starting rotation (even less if Oliver isn't signed and the rotation spot goes to Shairon Martis, Tyler Clippard, Garrett Mock, etc.). Under my predictions, the staff will go 54-44 with about a 3.72 ERA. Wouldn't be too bad...hopefully the likes of those guys I just named above could fill in the extra 9 or so starts. Keep in mind that these predictions are based most on performance and not injury.

Be sure to check in tomorrow night for the bench, Tuesday night for the bullpen and sometime later this week with the wrapup of the series.

Maybe Next Year? Part Three: the Starting Lineup

Hopefully by now, you've read parts one and two. Basically those set the groundwork for tonight. What I'm trying to show all of you is 1) The Nationals could (theoretically) be a .500 team next year and 2) They don't have to spend a whole lot of money to do it. Yes, Uncle Stan and whoever the new GM is are going to shell out some green. They can probably do it without raising the payroll a huge bit. All they need to do is spend the money RESPONSIBLY-no stupid Paul Lo Duca, Rob Mackowiak or Johnny Estrada signings.

I'd like to point out before I go any further that I get all contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's crazy in-depth, accurate and (better yet), incredibly user friendly.

I'm not going to waste a whole lot of space on the Nats' contractual obligations for next year. I will, however, link you to another spreadsheet I made. It profiles all Nats 40-man guys and their contracts for next year. So here it is.

If my calculations are correct (some are bound to be off by a little bit, but I doubt many are off by much...if they are, leave corrections in comments), the Nats have $40.7 mil tied up for 2009 in contracts for 31 players (under the assumption that all guys under team control that haven't hit arbitration yet are auto-renewed and all guys eligible for arbitration are offered, minus Colome, so it's likely to be even less than that).

The Nats' opening day payroll in 2008 is a few dollars (well, $39 thousand dollars is a few dollars to the Lerners) short of $55 mil. Even a $5-10 mil raise in payroll (don't be cheap, Lerners) would give Kasten and Bowden's replacement roughly $19 mil-$24 mil to play with. That's a lot of money, maybe even enough to feed Latrell Sprewell's family. Let's see what we can do with that extra cash. I'll go over the starting lineup tonight, the pitching staff tomorrow night and the bench Saturday night.

Without further ado, your 2009 Washington Nationals' starting lineup!
1) Cristian Guzman, SS (resigned, $7 mil per year over 2 years)
Guzman is the shortstop most likely to give the Nats their most bang for their buck, as he won't cost the 8 digits per year that Furcal will and will (hopefully) take a small hometown discount (because we payed for a whole lot of nothin' from 2005-07).
Realistic 2009 prediction: .305/.335/.425, 8 SB, 8 HR, 90 R, 55 RBI
2) Mark Ellis, 2B (FA signing, $5.5 mil per year over 2 years)
Performance-wise, I'd rather have Orlando Hudson, but we all know the Lerners are too cheap for him. So I'll settle with Ellis, formerly of the Oakland A's. He would fit very well in the #2 hole (career OPS+ of 100, meaning he's exactly league-average hitting-wise, but with more BB than K this year, he obviously can handle the bat well enough for the 2 hole) and is a great fielder. The only knock in this plan is that he and the Athletics are currently talking extension. Let's hope he slips out of Billy Beane's hands.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .275/.340/.420, 10 SB, 12 HR, 90 R, 65 RBI
3) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (arbitration-eligble, ~$5 mil for 2009)
We all know Zimmerman's abilities. He is the king of the walkoff, has a large ownership in Web Gems and always seems to be the guy to get a key hit when you need one. The question: is he going to be 100% healthy next year? I'm leaning yes. For now. It will be fun to see him have the breakout year everyone thought he would have this year.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .290/.350/.490, 5 SB, 28 HR, 95 R, 105 RBI
4) Adam Dunn, 1B (FA signing, $14 mil for 1 year).
Dunn is a three-true-outcomes hitter (meaning he usually homers, strikes out or walks). I'm perfectly content with him hitting cleanup. You know what you're going to get: 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 BB, 180 K. He's not a 1B by trade, but has spent significant time there over his career (remember, Dmitri started as an OF also). Speaking of Da Meat Hook, Dunn can't be as bad fielding-wise as him, so it's an improvement across the board. I am suggesting a Dunn signing because he'll come relatively cheap compared to his true production (don't let the .250ish batting average fool you, he's quite a threat in the lineup). His power shouldn't decline a whole lot outside of the Great American Ballpark (look at his Home/Away splits here. His OPS may be 51 points lower on the road in his career, but .866 still ain't bad. And he ain't Garrett Atkins). I am also suggesting signing Dunn because Johnson is inevitably going to be hurt and I've got a gut feeling* Da Meat Hook is gone by the deadline (*as opposed to Ray King's Gut Feeling, my favorite Nationals Journal username).
Realistic 2009 prediction: .250/.380/.525, 5 SB, 40 HR, 105 R, 125 RBI
5) Austin Kearns, RF (under contract, $8 mil)
I don't think it's much of a secret that I'm a big Austin Kearns fan. I can't stand but like the guy who can best pull off overalls and a John Deere trucker hat. I also can't stand but like his defensive abilities or his ability to get on base. One thing to watch out for: if the Nats sign Adam Dunn, they've brought in Kearns' best friend. I don't know if that could work out any better for the morale of the two guys, and I have a feeling it would positively influence the performance of both.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .270/.360/.470, 5 SB, 25 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI
6) Elijah Dukes, LF (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
Dukes has surprised me a lot this year in ways I didn't expect. It seems as if he was telling the truth when he talked about being closer to a model citizen now that he got away from some of his bad friends from his hometown (my words). There's no doubt in my mind that Dukes will be a solid performer in 2009. He's proved to me that he's not only worth a spot on the 25-man roster, but a spot in the starting lineup. This is what I least expected: now, when I hear the name Elijah Dukes, "great ballplayer" comes to mind before "bad person." A lot can happen in a year, and it certainly doesn't come close to erasing the turmoil of his past, but he's taken giant steps and instilled confidence in both Nats fans and himself.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .270/.370/.460, 25 SB, 20 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI
7) Jesus Flores, C (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
I'm going to be straight-up with you right here: I'm not confident that Flores can handle hitting above 6th over a full season-yet. He's a little too streaky at this point and looks foolish at times. That being said, he's STILL an above-average catcher both behind the plate and at it. I think wedging him between Dukes and L-Millz would be a good situation for him.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .265/.325/.445, 1 SB, 15 HR, 55 R, 75 RBI
8) Lastings Milledge, CF (under contract, $400k auto-renew likely)
As good as Lastings looked this year, he still only hit .245/.312/.368, a far cry from last year's line of .272/.341/.446. I think he's somewhere in the middle, and is also a developing center fielder. I don't see why we shouldn't write "8" beside him on both sides (the lineup and the fielding arrangements) next year and see what he can do. If he gets hurt again, or plays bad, Dukes is probably a better CF at this point anyways. Stick him there and someone else in LF if needed.
Realistic 2009 prediction: .265/.335/.435, 25 SB, 15 HR, 65 R, 65 RBI

These 8 guys under my "realistic 2009 predictions" would score 665 runs (and account for 665 RBI, coincidentally). The 2008 Washington Nationals are on pace for 583 runs as an entire team (which wouldn't include bench players). Now, my predictions all won't come true (and injuries do happen...but we all know that), but that would be a significant improvement, wouldn't you think? And on the whole, the lineup would cost the difference between Guzman's 2008 and 2009 salaries (roughly $3 mil), the difference between Kearns' 2008 and 2009 salaries (roughly $3 mil), the difference between Lopez' 2008 salary and Ellis' 2009 salary (roughly $300k) and the difference between Young's 2008 salary and Dunn's 2009 salary (roughly $9 mil). So a little more than $15 mil could improve the starting lineup to the point that it would score 82 runs more than this year's entire team combined (including the bench and pitchers)...and my runs/RBI predictions were made more on player career averages/highs than the players playing around them (so they may be a little bit low in the cases of Guzman, Ellis, Dukes, Flores and Milledge). Is that $15 mil worth it to you? Account for around 100 more runs between all bench players and pitchers and you're looking at an offense that scores 765 runs. That equates to 4.72 a game, which would 6th out of 16 in the league this year. Combine that with a bullpen that is improved a little bit, and the Nats could break even on runs next year (will go further into depth there tomorrow).

But it's your turn. What do you think about my plans? It's all easier said than done, but these days, money talks louder than most other factors. Time to pull out your checkbooks, Lerner family.

Maybe Next Year? Part Two

Yesterday I went over some moves I think the Nats would be wise to make this coming offseason in order to take a step towards (and perhaps over) .500 next year.

Last night's post was some of the "who," but tonight's post is the rest of the "who" and some of the "what," where I'll (crudely) project the names and prices of the roster for next year. Guys like Texeira, Hudson, Furcal and K-Rod likely price themselves out of the Nats' range, but maybe Uncle Teddy will surprise us (probably not).

To do this, I made a beautiful spreadsheet using Google Documents:




As you can (hopefully) tell, I have no idea how to make it show up right on the blog. I'll just direct you to the link where you can look (and sort!). You can see my spreadsheet here.

I'd like to point out 10 "set in stone" players for next year. "Set in stone" does not mean "untouchable" or anything along those lines. Instead it's guys who I can't imagine the Nationals trading and guys who are basically are guaranteed a spot on next year's team and the Nats meanwhile have no reason to trade them (either due to a small contract, or even a large, unmovable contract). Thus, "set in stone" is not necessarily a good thing. The ten players I named: Flores, Zimmerman, Dukes, Milledge, Kearns, Lannan, Bergmann, Balester, Rivera, Hanrahan. I'd say there is a 99.9% chance all 10 of those players are on the Nationals' opening day roster next year (barring injury, of course).

Tomorrow night I'll go through my personal projections, for both the 25 and 40-man rosters. They will include (again, crude) statistical projections for the players on both rosters. I'll also include in the post what I figure the Nationals will do with the players that are on the roster now that I don't project to be there next year. Hopefully by then, I'll figure out how to make stuff from Google Docs able to show up in a blog entry (has to be converted to a picture as far as I know).

Maybe next year?

No, that's not a concession. Chico's questions today on the Nats' Strategy for the Future has inspired me. I've got a plan of my own. A plan to be .500 next year with minimal moves needed.

First, start signing some mid-level free agents this year (probably type B guys, maybe one type A guy) and then NEXT year start going after the studs. Do what the Tigers did and sign a guy like Pudge this year to build the team around and then fill in the rest of the holes next year.

The foundation is here. It is POSSIBLE to make the playoffs next year, but only if Jim Bowden is canned. It is NOT PROBABLE, by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't find it incredibly hard to see Zimmerman, Milledge, Dukes, Kearns, Flores, Lannan, Balester, Redding, Bergmann, etc. having breakout years.

Here's what I think our lineup and 25-man roster could look like next year with minimal FA signings:

SS-Cristian Guzman (resigned for $14 mil/2 years)
2B-Orlando Hudson (FA signing for $32 mil/3 years)
3B-Ryan Zimmerman
1B-Adam Dunn (FA Signing for $12 mil/1 year)
RF-Austin Kearns
LF-Elijah Dukes
C-Jesus Flores
CF-Lastings Milledge

Rotation:
L-John Lannan
R-Colin Balester
R-Tim Redding
R-Jason Bergmann
L-Oliver Perez (FA signing for $5 mil/1 year)

Relievers:
Closer: Jon Rauch
Setup: FA to be named later (Wheeler was resigned in April)
Middle: Luis Ayala/Saul Rivera (trade one, keep one)
Middle: Steven Shell
Middle: Adam Carr or Zech Zinicola
Situational: Charlie Manning
Long: Joel Hanrahan

Bench:
CA Wil Nieves/Luke Montz
1B Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young (keep one, trade one)
IF Aaron Miles/Mark Loretta/Adam Everett/Pete Orr/Yurendell Decaster/Leonard Davis (signed at $1.5 mil/year or less)
IF/OF Willie Harris
IF/OF Kory Casto
OF Wily Mo Pena

See...a few mid-to-upper level FA signings would really change the complexion of the team. I think that's a lineup and rotation that could make the playoffs, with the assumption that the young hitters progress rather than regress. That's a dangerous assumption, but who can see the team going .500 by simply signing Dunn, Hudson and Perez? The nice thing is this: By signing guys like Dunn and Perez, it shouldn't block youngsters from coming up. They'll likely only demand a 1 year, incentive-laden deals because they've had relative down years this year (Dunn's BA is .228 and Perez' ERA is 4.62). I think we can make it happen. I'd also like to note this: no more assuming Johnson is going to be healthy. I'm planning like he's hurt from now on. Dunn is basically Johnson with a little less AVG/OBP and significantly more power (and better durability).

Here's a list of 2009 FA's by the way:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

If I were GM of the Nationals (3 weeks later)

I wrote this the first time on June 1, so it's been 3 weeks (check it out here if you want to see my genius ideas). Much has changed (6 of my 12 proposed moves have been implemented) and much still has not (Colome is still on the team? ARE YOU SERIOUS?). So here's the new version of If I were GM of the Nationals, which will (sadly) continue to occur until Jim Bowden is relieved of his duties.

Just like last time, the 40-man roster is full, so some creativity will be needed to make room. Lucky for all of us, I'm the king of creativity.

Our 25-man roster currently holds at least 6 players who should not be on it (I will give Saul Rivera, Luis Ayala and Charlie Manning a brief reprieve under one condition-LEARN HOW TO THROW STRIKES!!!):
RP Jesus Colome
C Paul Lo Duca
IF Fail-ipe Lopez
IF Pete Orr
IF/OF Willie Harris
OF Wily Mo Pena

Between Lopez and Orr, one needs to stay because an ML middle infield backup is necessary and there is basically nobody ready in AA/AAA at either position. I'll say Lopez stays because he at least has had some success with a baseball bat at some level. So that leaves us with 5 players on the roster that needs to be purged: Colome, Lo Duca, Orr, Harris and Pena. These 5 would fetch very little value on the trade market. Pena (raw power/everything else), Harris (speed + defense/bat), Orr (speed + defense/bat + eye) and Colome (can throw 97 MPH/can't locate at all) all have at least 1 marketable skill and at least 1 major flaw. Lo Duca just needs to retire to the broadcast booth (he did a decent job when Sutton was on the DL with a voice cracking like a 12-year-old boy).

I think (and hope) guys like Pena ($2 mil, team option for next year at $5 mil/player option for next year at $2 mil) and Colome ($1.25 mil) can pass through waivers, because if they can right the ship, they can be solid major leaguers. Both showed signs of decency with the Nats last year, as Wily Mo hit .293/.352/.504 and Colome threw 66 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. Wily Mo's line of .213/.253/.269 (with awful defense) and Colome's 6.00 ERA don't cut it, however, and both need to be jettisoned immediately, whether it be to Columbus or another team. DFA them both and see if any offers come up. If not, let them become other teams' problems. Seriously, look at Colome's last 10 games (taken from his Nationals.com page):
Now that's just pretty awful. Notice that the dates go back more than a month, before I wrote the original If I were GM of the Nationals (June 1). Seriously...he's given up 7 earned runs in his last 3 and 1/3 innings pitched and 16 earned runs over his last 14 and 2/3. There needs to be a point where Jim Bowden just says "no more" and dumps the fireballer. There are a ton of people who can throw it hard waiting for Jim Bowden (or any other GM, for that matter) to give them a chance. Let's add Colome to that list.

Orr will likely accept his reassignment to Columbus (because the Nats have already given him permission to play at the Olympics for Team Canada, so he might as well). Lo Duca might retire if the Nats dump him, because nobody wants a 36-year-old washed up catcher who can't hit, can't field his position and annoys the rest of the team while trying to "light a fire" under them. I've got your fire, Paulie. To put it more precisely, you're fired. Harris is probably pawnable, as he is only making $800k this year, has good speed and can play basically anywhere.

To fill the spots of these 5 guys (not to be confused with the delicious house of burgers), the following hitters would be added to the roster (bear with me, I'll get to the pitchers later):
1B/3B/OF Yurendell DeCaster (needs to be added to the 40-man roster)
OF Roger Bernadina (called up rather than Mike Daniel for 2 reasons: slightly superior hitting this year and is already on the 40-man roster)
OF Kenny Lofton (needs to be signed and added to the 40-man roster, read up on him in my last IIWGMOTN entry)

This would leave us at a lineup looking like this:
Cristian Guzman-SS
Lastings Milledge-CF
Elijah Dukes-RF
Dmitri Young-1B
Jesus Flores-C
Aaron Boone-3B
Ron Belliard-2B
Roger Bernadina-LF

The bench would feature:
Lefty Kory Casto (1B/3B/LF/RF)
Lefty Kenny Lofton (LF/CF/RF, pinch running candidate)
Righty Wil Nieves (C)
Righty Yurendell DeCaster (1B/3B/LF/RF, 2B in a pinch)
Switch Fail-ipe Lopez (2B/SS/LF, pinch running candidate)
This would leave us with a bunch of corner infield/outfielders and not a whole lot up the middle, but the Nats usually don't carry more than 3 middle infielders (with now being the exception). Harris' ability to play middle infield in a pinch may trump DeCaster's callup.

Pitchingwise, it's a foregone conclusion that Odalis Perez returns and claims one of the two slots made available by dumping Colome. I once again support the calling up of Chris Schroder to fill the other spot, as he pitched well last year (3.18 ERA in 45 innings). He's already on the 40-man, and it's a bit of a waste to call up a start to put in relief when they could be starting in AAA (I'm looking at you, Balester/Clippard/Mock, etc.).

This all being said, guys like Balester, Clippard, Mock, Daniel, Estrada, Martis, Zinicola, Broadway and Escobar will probably see some ML action this year (or at least a handful of them) because of trades. There are realistically 3 tiers of guys: unmovable (due to lack of performance or contract), dump off for a low-level prospect (due to a lack of performance or contract) and trade for a solid prospect (or prospects, due to good performance).

Guys like Johnny Estrada and Paul Lo Duca probably won’t command anything on the trade market. If we’re lucky, somebody takes them off our hands for a PTBNL or something.

Guys like Ayala, Rivera, Nieves, Pena, Harris and Lopez could theoretically bring a low-level prospect I’d think if we tried dealing them away. I have a little bit more faith in Jim Bowden’s ability to find low-level pitching prospects (namely Martis), but still it is almost more worth it to hold on to most of them because (with the exception of Harris, Ayala and maybe Lopez) they have yet to reach their potential. Trading Ayala now would be selling too low for my liking, as this is his first non-great year when you look at it.

Guys like Young, Redding, Perez, Rauch, Boone, Belliard, Guzman and Johnson (if healthy) could theoretically bring in some decent prospects (maybe not Boone/Belliard, but it all depends on the market), with Redding, Rauch and Guzman being most valuable. All three are signed cheap compared to their peformance (Redding at $1 mil and with either 1 or 2 more years of team control after this year, Rauch at $1.2 mil this year, $2 mil next year and a team option at $2.9 mil in 2010 and Guzman at $4 mil this year) and are relatively young (30, 29 and 30, respectivelly). Since SP, RP and SS are 3 positions hard to find cheap, young, decent talent, the Nats could realistically ask for a B+ level prospect for any of them, and probably an additional B- to B prospect since it's Jim Bowden doing the asking. For guys like Young, Perez, Boone and Belliard, a B- to B prospect is more likely (and really a C+ to B- for Boone/Belliard would work). For Johnson, who knows.

Attention Jim Bowden: pay attention or you're fired, just like Paulie. Plus, I hear his phone is TOAST!