Inbox and Links

Here are my responses to the last inbox:

What do you think about Cristian Guzman? Do you think he is on the way out before Opening Day?
-- Jesse P., Arlington, Va.

Guzman is overpaid and undergood, but needed on the Nats. The system is still bare up the middle; just because Ian Desmond put up a miracle 2009 season doesn't mean he's a sure thing and neither is Adam Kennedy. Since nobody is going to give up anything for Guzman, we HAVE to keep him, simply because he's our best out of the worst-case scenarios. And personally, I don't think Desmond is 100% ready yet, either.

I still think it's funny how things change: 19 months ago 79% of voters on Nationals Journal "approved" of the Guzman 2 year/$16 mil extension. At the time, I said in the comments of my main post that "I still think it's a decent deal, just because we guarantee ourselves an okay shortstop." And looking back, I still think that was the right attitude; Ian Desmond was coming off of a .251/.318/.406 triple slash in 93 games in AA (not counting the 3 games he spent in the GCL). There was no indication that he would become a major league player by September 2010 let alone 2009.

I disagree with using Ian Desmond as a utility player. If he really is the Nationals' shortstop of the future, Desmond needs to play every day. The Nats are better off leaving him in the Minors and send him up when the time is right. What do you think?
-- Alex C., Montreal

I think Desmond is better off starting the year in AAA. He hit fairly well in 89 PA's at the end of the year while playing atrocious defense. The majors are not the place to learn plate discipline (BB% fell from 8.5% in AA and 9.8% in AAA to 5.8% in ML) or defense. This is more for his sake than ours; if he bombs in the majors, that will kill his confidence. Let him work out the kinks and come back up in May or June or whenever he's needed, but don't rush him just because our MI situation is crappy.

That all being said, wherever he plays, he has to play every day. If he's a utility player in the majors, that's fine with me, as long as he's playing at least 4 or 5 times a week somewhere. Anything less than that and he needs to be in AAA.

Do you see Jermaine Dye coming to the Nationals? He is a great defensive outfielder and a great power hitter.
-- Alan W., Herndon, Va.

Jermaine Dye's defense was so bad last year, he was worth -$1.2 million, even with a .250/.340/.453 triple slash and 27 homers! His UZR/150 has been -21.4 or worse for the last 4 seasons. Dye's career UZR/150 in RF is worse than Dunn's career UZR/150 in LF! If he can learn 1B, I wouldn't mind adding him for a righty bench bat and pinch hitter, but anyone who signs Jermaine Dye to start in the outfield (or really anywhere for that matter) is begging for the basement.

Do you see Livan Hernandez returning to the Nationals in 2010?
-- Ryan B., Fairfax Va.

Yes. He'll sign a minor league deal in the next 2 weeks.

Why is right-hander Shairon Martis never mentioned as a possible starter for the Nats this year?
-- Steve B., Washington

I'm honestly not a big fan of Martis. I've certainly been wrong about people before, but Martis was actually worse than his 5.25 ERA in the majors last year. He absolutely has to bring his walk total down as Ladson said, but also needs to bring his K/9 way above the 3.57 it was last year.

Has Adam Dunn been working this offseason on his fielding at first base? Any improvement there could be a huge boost to the infield. If the injury bug bites again, what's your opinion of the team's depth?
-- John B., Burke, Va.

God help us if he hasn't been working on it. Rizzo has added depth to the hitters: Kennedy, Bruntlett, Whitesell, Pudge, Duncan and Mench, but I wouldn't necessarily call it "good" depth, and it's still nowhere close to enough depth. If these guys are on the bench, that's okay. If they're trusted with a starting position at any point, we're in trouble.

Could you give me a projected starting lineup for 2010?
-- Juan F., Alexandria, Va.

Ladson's prediction:
1) CF Nyjer Morgan
2) SS Guzman
3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman
4) 1B Dunn
5) LF Josh Willingham
6) RF Dukes
7) C Ivan Rodriguez
8) 2B Adam Kennedy

Looks about right for now. I could see Kennedy batting second and Guz batting 8th, but this is probably the best guess. I don't think Flores or Desmond will start, at this point at least.

If the Nats sign Dunn to a multi-year deal, what does that mean for Chris Marrero's future with the club?
-- Jake B., Silver Spring, Md.

I haven't seen anywhere that Marrero is anything near the poor defender Dunn is like Ladson suggested in his response. Anyways, I say we cross this bridge when we get there; a lot can happen in a few years, as we've seen with Guzman above.

I see Willingham as a defensive liability, and I believe his bat is not stellar enough to tolerate his defense. If the Nationals want to have better defense, they should try to trade him.
-- Andrew, W., Alexandria, Va.

Willingham ended the year with a .863 OPS even with a .156/.248/.278 month of September. I'd say his bat is plenty good enough to counteract his weak defense.

On another note, I promised links, so here they are!

-Baseball-Intellect's work on the Nats: Overview, Top Prospects 1-5 and Top Prospects 6-15. If you're not a member, you still get detailed info on Strasburg (#1), Norris (#2), Marrero (#6) and Eury Perez (#7). Good stuff!

-NatsStats put up an interesting FanPost on Federal Baseball comparing Nats pitchers to other pitchers in terms of ERA and First Pitch Strike %.

Inbox Infusion

I'm condensing the last 3 inboxes into one, so here they are!
1/18/10

Will the Nationals make Nyjer Morgan upgrade his sliding technique?
-- Dave C., Arlington, Va.

Ladson passes along the following quote from Tony Plush in November: "If I have to make the change, I'm definitely prepared to make the change. But I'm not going to stop my aggressiveness on the basepaths. I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing out there. If I have to change my slide for the team's sake, I will. We have something brewing and it will be special. I just want to be on board with everybody."

If Nyjer's willing to make the move, I'm all for it. But if he starts getting caught more often than not in Spring Training/April, don't be surprised to see him change back.

Would you rather have the Nationals sign Orlando Hudson, or play Ian Desmond and spend money on pitching instead?
-- Alex C., Montreal

I'm all for signing Hudson. I think if a Hudson deal happened, Guzman would get about 20% of the PT at 2B and 40% at SS. I don't see the Nats naming either Guzman or Desmond the full-time starting SS if Hudson signs; both have too many question marks IMO.

Adam Dunn has proven to be a real asset. Yet, you seem to want him gone because his defense isn't that great. How in the world are you going to replace 30-something home runs and a guy who lets Ryan Zimmerman see better pitches to hit? I like the direction the team is going and I hope that includes a slugger like Adam for years to come.
-- Tim H., Virginia Beach, Va.

Adam Dunn is an asset offensively, but he is not a long-term option. It might sound silly, but I think the Nats could (and should) take a run at somebody like Miguel Cabrera. His value is at its all-time lowest with his alcoholism problems, but his worth as a player is still incredibly high. He'll only be 27 in April and can handle 1B relatively well. For more on the topic, check out Matt Klassen's FanGraphs article from November about Cabrera's trade value.

By adding Jason Marquis, do you think the Nats will have a much stronger five-man rotation in 2010?
-- Thomas B., Boston

Umm...yes? Marquis instantly brings stability to the rotation. 200 IP of 4.50 ERA ball is better than most of what the Nats have gotten from their rotation since, oh, 2005.

Is there a place for Leo Mazzone in the Nats' organization? He has an excellent reputation as a pitching coach.
-- John H., Wyalusing, Pa.

I could see the Nats bringing Mazzone in as a roving instructor of some sort, but I think they're happy with Steve McCatty as the big league pitching coach for now.

What about platooning Willie Harris and Alberto Gonzalez at second base?
-- Bill P., Arlington, Va.

Like Ladson, I don't see it happening. Desmond and Guzman are the upper tier of Nats MI's right now and Harris and Gonzalez are the lower tier. If the Nats don't sign Hudson and Desmond or Guzman flop big-time, I might reconsider my position. But if we're talking about where we stand today, I can't see this happening.

1/27/10

I think Willie Harris is underrated. I would put him at second base and Ian Desmond at shortstop. Do you agree?
-- Ben M., Silver Spring, Md.

Harris is a solid backup at 2B, somebody you can count on in a pinch. But let's be serious: he is not a starting 2B. He hasn't even played 200 innings there in the last 4 seasons! He is significantly more valuable to the team as a super-sub or starting LF than a starting 2B.

Where does left-hander Ross Detwiler fit in with the Nationals? I saw you didn't include him in your possible rotation scenarios. Could he get a real chance in 2010, or are the Nationals grooming him for future years? Being a St. Louis native, I would love to see that talent in a Cardinals uniform.
-- Josh K., St. Louis

With the signing of Marquis, Detwiler won't be rushed/forced into a starting role. If the Nats think it's better for his development to send him to the minors, they will. I don't expect him to throw more than 100 IP in the majors this year, but at the same time, I expect him to pitch there at least a little bit. Unless he has a very solid Spring Training, I think he'll start in Syracuse or Harrisburg.

The Nats decided to non-tender Mike MacDougal, who had 20 saves with a 3.60 ERA and sign Matt Capps who had 27 saves with a 5.80 ERA. Why is this so smart?
-- Glynn P., Falls Church, Va.

Because MacDougal sucks. You're about 10 years behind in your logic; rather than signing guys based on what they have done, sign them based on what they can and will do. Invest in the future, not in the past.

Why didn't the Nationals go after Jon Garland? He could have provided another veteran arm and guided the young pitchers who aren't quite ready.
-- Dylan P., Shiloh, Ohio

I don't know why, but I'm not a big Garland fan. Ladson noted that the Nats did make an initial push for him, though, and you can't sign somebody that doesn't want to sign with you.

Why not add Pedro Martinez to the rotation? He looked good with the Phillies last year. I think he has enough gas left in the tank. It would be a great fit.
-- Phil F., Quebec City, Canada

Here's what I said at the end of June: "

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now."

Here's what I said at the end of October: "

I doubt (the Nats will make a run at Pedro this offseason). They didn't go hard after him this season and he's only going to be more expensive and a year older next year."

One thing to consider: sample size. Pedro's "good" 2009 (3.63 ERA, 4.28 FIP) occurred in only 9 starts and 44 and 2/3 innings while his "bad" 2008 (5.61 ERA, 5.18 FIP) took place in more than twice the starts and innings (20 starts and 109 innings, respectively). And he averaged less than 5 innings per start in 2009. At this point, I think I'll pass.

Who is battling for a bullpen spot this Spring Training? Might we see Mock or Balester in the bullpen if they don't make the team as starters?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Here's my abbreviated bullpen outlook:

Locks (75-100% chance of making the roster): Capps (100%)

Semi-Locks (50-75% chance): Batista (~50%), Bruney

(~75%)

, Burnett (~75%), Clippard

(~65%)

, Walker

(~65%)

Bubble (25-50% chance): Bergmann (~40%), Mock (~30%), Slaten (~25%), Speier (~40%)

Outside looking in (<20%>

Thoughts:

Why isn't Clippard a lock? Compare his 2009 to Steven Shell's 2008. An extremely lucky year in both cases leads to unrealistic expectations.

The Nats wouldn't trade for Bruney only to have him not make the roster, right? Wrong. Even if you're looking solely at sunk costs, the Nats didn't really give up anything for him, with a pretty weak Rule 5 crop this year. If Bruney doesn't impress during Spring Training, they won't be afraid to show him the door. At the same time, though, I expect that he will do what he needs to do to break the Opening Day roster.

I think Batista will be a heavily-used member of the Nats' bullpen this year. Maybe not good, but heavily-used.

Feel free to ask/challenge any of my guesses in the comments.

2/1/10

What do you think about Justin Maxwell playing right field on a regular basis for the Nationals?
-- Michael W., Silver Spring, Md.

I think that's a terrible idea. There's this guy who plays there now (you might have heard of him) named Elijah Dukes who is both more talented and more projectable. And anyways, Maxwell still has to do better than a >30% K rate and a <.250 batting average in the minors before he even sniffs regular ML time (not considering injury of course).

Is there any possibility the Nats bring in Johnny Damon to solidify the third outfield position?
-- Andrew G., Fairfax, Va.

Ladson says there is no chance, but if the Nats trade Willingham, it wouldn't surprise me. While Damon was brutal in LF for the Yanks in 2009, he wasn't far off from Willingham. I would much rather have a solid young pitcher and Johnny Damon than just Josh Willingham.

Will Willingham get traded?
-- Jennifer W., Gaithersburg, Va.

Yes. Rizzo isn't satisfied with the current state of pitching, and it's a whole lot easier to acquire a bat for the future than an arm. Willingham's value is at its highest, and Rizzo would be foolish to hold onto him long enough to risk that changing.

How does Matt Chico fit into the Nationals' plans in 2010? Do you see him competing and winning a rotation spot?
-- Benjamin C., Gaithersburg, Md.

I don't think he'll even compete for a rotation spot. His 2007 season was nothing special (below average, really) and he's been hurt since then. Do you really expect him to be better? Even his 2007 status would be a downgrade compared to most of the other guys competing for the starting job.

Do you think the Nationals will acquire a veteran starter before Spring Training?
-- Joy M., Washington

Yes. I don't know that it will be one that will be guaranteed a spot, but I am willing to bet that they'll acquire somebody in the Livan Hernandez tier at the very least.

How much better will the Nationals be if they acquire second baseman Orlando Hudson?
-- Kenny I., Baltimore

A ton, but not for the reasons that you might think. On the surface, Hudson would boost the offensive and defensive numbers from the past at 2B. If you look further, signing him would also give the Nats a contingency plan if Desmond needs more minor league seasoning or Guzman bottoms out. The one thing the Nats generally seem to lack is quality depth, and a Hudson signing would allow them to keep a ML-starting caliber middle infielder on the bench in either him, Guzman or Desmond in every single game.

Inbox Time

This version of the mailbag is a week late, but your mail this week will probably be just as late, so we'll call it even.

Who do you think will be the Nationals' Opening Day shortstop?
-- Patrick S., Chantilly, Va.

Ian Desmond. I honestly don't think the Nats will make a run at an ML-worthy 2B or SS, leaving them with Desmond at SS and Guzman at 2B.

It seems odd that the Nationals would offer arbitration to right-hander Jason Bergmann. Likeable as he is, he's an average pitcher at best.
-- Mike H., Washington

Average at best, yes, but what else describes the Nats bullpen? I'm surprised they didn't non-tender him and try to bring him back at a cheaper salary, but to be honest, it's not a truly cost-prohibitive decision.

What do you think the rotation and bullpen will look like on Opening Day next year? I expect Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen not to be on the roster until later in 2010.
-- Keith C., Greenbelt, Md.

Rotation: Lannan, Detwiler, Olsen, Garland, Marquis

Bullpen: Bergmann, Balester, Burnett, Clippard, Mock and Bruney as the Closer.

Strasburg and Storen will not be in the Majors until at least a month in, I bet.

If the Nationals are unable to land a "Big Time" starter this offseason, do you see any potential trade packages that could land Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay?
-- Michael L., Williamsburg Va.

Well, I obviously missed the boat on this one, but such a deal would cost some sort of a combination of Norris, Storen, Desmond and Marrero (plus maybe some pitchers like Detwiler and Mock), and I don't think the Nats could (or would even want to) match the Phillies' offer.

Will Clippard get a shot in the rotation? He's deadly against left-handed hitters. Just ask Bobby Cox, who would like to have him.
-- Brandon D., Muncie, Ind.

Deadly against lefties, yes, but he still had a .207 BABIP last year. Expect plenty of regression, and further bullpen relegation.

Not too long, it was reported that the Nationals were shopping Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn because they are defensive liabilities. Why? There bats are crucial parts of the lineup, and with Nyjer Morgan, Willie Harris, Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell in the mix, the defense is solid.
-- Ben F., Suffolk, Va.

The problem with the defensive whizzes is that only Morgan and Zimmerman are actually starters. The team, in my opinion, has 2 plus fielders in Morgan and Zimmerman, 2 minus fielders in Willingham and Dunn, 2 average fielders in Rodriguez/Flores and Dukes and 2 average fielders with a bigger potential to fall into the lower category than the higher in Desmond and Guzman.

I still like the potential of left-hander Matt Chico. Based on his progress in rehab, what do you think his chances are of being with the team in 2010?
-- Todd B., Smithsburg, Md.

I'm admittedly not a big fan about Chico. He had a below average, yet still lucky, year in 2007. I don't think he'll be back for good, unless he comes back with control and durability.

2010 Roster Building-Left Fielders

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Left Field. Follow along with the series here.

LEFT FIELDERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Adam Dunn and Willie Harris

Other possibilities in the organization: Josh Willingham, Jorge Padilla, Leonard Davis

The Nats may not know exactly what they have in LF for the 2010 season, but they do know that they have something. Between Dunn and Willingham, you have a great hitting, poor fielding LF. I expect the team to stick one or the other at 1B, and while I'm hoping for Willingham to anchor the infield, I half-expect the Nats to keep Dunn there just for continuity's sake. I don't expect any major changes to LF next year...just a lot of seeing Dunn/Willingham replaced in the late innings by Willie Harris. I do not expect to see Leonard Davis (at least not at the beginning of the year), nor do I expect to see Jorge Padilla (nice story, but at some point he has to get more than 1 hit).

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Marvin Lowrance

Lowrance really needs to be challenged to start the 2010 year. He had a poor 2009 season in terms of batting average, but his walk and strikeout rates were consistent and his power remained intact. If he starts hot, I can see him forcing his way into DC, even as just a bench player. I see him having the potential to be a Daryle Ward-type (if he can handle coming off of the bench).

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Randy Winn

In 2010, Winn could serve the role that Austin Kearns was supposed to fill in 2009. He can play both corners very well, but has lost a step and is average at best defensively in CF (but with Nyjer Morgan, he would only be a fill-in there anyways). With Winn, you get consistency: decent bat, speed, defense, and few mistakes. What else do you want in a 4th outfielder?

2009 production by Nats left fielders to date: .276/.399/.519, 28 HR, 84 R, 77 RBI

2010 projection: I expect the rate stats to drop a bit (always assume the worst and hope for the best). The counting stats should probably increase in 2010 with more certainty in starting positions and stuff. .265/.380/.490 with 35 HR, 90 R and 100 RBI would fulfill that prediction. I'd be happy with that.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

2010 Roster Building-First Basemen

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is First Base. Follow along with the series here.

FIRST BASEMEN

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Adam Dunn and Mike Morse

Other possibilities in the organization: Josh Willingham, Daryle Ward, Brad Eldred

The ideal situation in my opinion is for Josh Willingham to be named the starting 1B from day 1 (in Spring Training, that is). I do believe, athletically, he is better suited as the better long-term option for the Nats at 1B. If he can't cut it, it won't hurt to shift Dunn back, but I do wholeheartedly think Willingham can be an above-average defender at 1B. I picked Morse because of his ability to play multiple positions (although none of them very well) and hit at the ML level (despite little success in 10 plate appearances to date this year, he's still a .297/.360/.394 career hitter in the majors). I expect him to be our Ronnie Belliard in 2010. I doubt Ward and Eldred will be back, but there is always a possibility...

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): A slight, slight, ever so slight possibility could be Chris Marrero. I do not advocate rushing him to the bigs, as he only has 50 plate appearances against AA pitching. If he has a strong showing in Spring Training and throughout the first few months in Harrisburg and Syracuse, I could see him showing up in DC around the all-star break, especially if the team plans on moving Dunn at the deadline.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Nick Johnson. No, not all of these sleeper picks are going to be Nats re-treads, but in a thin 1B free agent class, he (and maybe Ross Gload) are the only ones I can really see making sense. Most of the free agents out there are either starters (Delgado, Thome, LaRoche) or guys who are past their prime (Giambi, Sweeney). Branyan or Stairs might be decent fits, but I would expect them to want to sign with contenders rather than the Nats.

2009 production by Nats first basemen to date: .289/.415/.459, 19 HR, 76 R, 72 RBI

2010 projection: Significantly better offensively and significantly worse defensively. Johnson is not the ace with the glove he used to be, but he's still light years ahead of the likely 2010 Nats starter Adam Dunn.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.