Trade, Dukes, Tickets

First impression of the trade from yesterday: Ugh. After sleeping on it, it's not SO bad anymore, but the kicker for me really was the inclusion of Joel Hanrahan. Morgan for Milledge is whatever...I have given up on Millz myself, so that's fine. But why we threw in Hanrahan for Burnett I have no idea. Burnett is nothing special (as you saw today), whereas Hanrahan, despite his flashes of "WTF," has good stuff. While it is only 1 team, apparently Colorado was interested in him, and I'm sure many others were as well. Selling low on Milledge is fine by me, but Hanrahan not so much.

Overall, I'm trying to align my feelings with Dave Cameron's analysis of the deal, but feel myself closer to that of most others.

In other news, the Nats sent Dukes to AAA today. Smart move...while Dukes is at worst the 3rd best OF we've got, he's the only one with options, and you simply can't bench Dunn/Willingham. Get Dukes the AB's he needs and call him back up when one of Dunn/Willingham/Johnson is dealt.

Some links:

Morgan = Dunn (Fangraphs)

Elijah Dukes Next? (FakeTeams)

Zimmermann: Best Rookie Pitcher? (Fangraphs)

Lastings' impression not positive (Post-Gazette)

In the meantime, does anyone have any tickets for this Sunday's game against Atlanta that they're not planning on using? I'll buy them off of you if the price is right, just email me at sean.t.hogan@gmail.com. I'm ideally looking for 4-6, but we can talk.

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K...

MLBTradeRumors.com reported two odd Nats rumors/speculations today. And by odd, I mean they would be stupid and I applaud Rizzo for not making moves like these.

First up, they just relayed a MASN blog post by Pete McElroy saying the Nats should give up on Joel Hanrahan. Ummmmm, no. I stand by what I said on Monday-Hanrahan is an incredibly unlucky pitcher this year. Put a real defense behind him to give him some confidence back and he'll be fine. You don't give up a young-ish reliever who throws in the high 90s for nothing when you're in last place. I'm sorry he gives up a lot of runs sometimes, but

They also noted that Fanhouse.com reporter Ed Price said (via his Twitter) that the Nats shot down a potential Lastings Milledge-for-Nyjer Morgan deal because the Pirates also asked for Craig Stammen. Kudos for Rizzo for not accepting the deal...while Morgan is a great defender, he is crap with the bat and is not much of an overall improvement over Roger Bernadina...why sell low on Milledge for a guy you won't even need in a month or two (or how ever long it takes the rehabbing Roger to be back)?

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Tuesday Thoughts

First of all, I'm disappointed we didn't sign Ray Durham. I wouldn't waste a penny on a bet with 1000 to 1 odds saying Anderson Hernandez will be "good" this year. I might consider "league average" but even that would be a push. Belliard is nice, but Durham is better.

It's good to see guys getting to Viera early. Among the list of early arrivals (from Nats Journal): Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young (who apparently is lookin' good), Scott Olsen, Jason Bergmann, Ross Detwiler, Steven Shell, Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock. I'd like to see guys like Flores, Kearns and Pena get there early to get some extra work in, but it's extremely early for hitters to show up.

Last in the order of business-anyone want to start a Natmosphere fantasy baseball league? I'm in, and FJB and I better not be the only excited ones!

Rough decision

It came down to studying for my Civil War final tomorrow and doing the mailbag. Tough call. So without further ado, here's your mailbag!

Why would the Nationals non-tender a guy like right-hander Tim Redding, but offer a contract to an injured pitcher such as Shawn Hill?
-- Ross B., Highland, Md.

Hill is a better pitcher than Redding, hands down. Redding was going to cost twice as much as Hill. It depends on what you want-180 mediocre innings or a gamble between probably 50 and 150 excellent or mediocre innings. I like the gamble.

Should the Nats give up on first baseman Nick Johnson because he gets injured every year? I could definitely see the Athletics or Giants come calling in a hurry.
-- Brian F., Sacramento, Calif.

I love Nick. He's a tremendous player and has so much value to the team, putting up the two best individual seasons (according to FJB, at least) in Nationals history in 2005 and '06. But he's been the least valuable player for the last two years, with 38 games played. We just can't afford to count on him anymore, I'm sorry. If there is decent interest in him, trade him. If not, hold on to him, let him build up his value, and then play it by ear from there.

In one of the previous mailbags, you said that Wily Mo Pena is recovering from shoulder surgery and should be ready for Spring Training. But is there any real need for the Nationals to keep him? It seems like they have an abundance of outfielders and Pena wasn't very productive last year.
-- Kristen L., Rockville, Md.

"There isn't a need for Pena. But you have to remember one thing: the Nationals declined a $5 million club option on Pena, who subsequently exercised a $2 million player option for the 2009 season last October." Thank you, Bill.

Any chance the Nationals would sign Dunn to play first base?
-- Fritz S., Rockville, Md.

Well they sure wouldn't signing him to play shortstop...

With Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero gone, who will be the Nationals' closer in 2009?
-- Rodney B., Greer, S.C.

Hanrahan. Don't believe the Fuentes BS...Mr. Lerner must have naked pictures of Ladson to get him to print that.

I know the Nationals don't plan on spending much money on pitching this offseason, so what do you think about bringing Livan Hernandez back? He might not be the best pitcher in the league, but he is a free agent and, if nothing else, he's an innings-eater.
-- Will R., Rose Haven, Md.

If we don't keep Redding at ~$2 mil, we will not bring Livo back at anything more than a minor league deal with a ST invite.

That's all there is...kinda a dissapoingly lame mailbag. Step it up with your questions, blogosphere!

One other note-the live chat with Jim Bowden is tomorrow at 11 am. I will be at work then, but enjoy! I'd appreciate it if someone asked Jim how the complexion of the game would change if trading draft picks were allowed, so if anyone is around the computer and wants to ask, they get an A+ for the day!

Wednesday Roundup

Not much out today, but make sure to check out Bill Rhinehart's guest blog over at MLBlogs (from last Friday). And in case you missed them, Leonard Davis had two guest blog entries as well.

Kristen over at We've Got Heart is (as always) on the ball with stuff none of the rest of the blogosphere seems to be able to come up with. Check out the Joel Hanrahan snippet she found from the Des Moines Register as well as her Winter League updates.

That's all I've got for now. Off to work!

I leave for 3 hours...

And the Nats go and trade their closer and sign their shortstop to an extension.

First, we'll discuss the Rauch deal:
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com figured Bowden would ask for more than just IF Emilio Bonifacio for Rauch.
MLB Fleece Factor thinks it is a pretty good deal for both teams.
National Fanboy Looser thanks Rauch for a job well done and asks if it's a good deal or not.
Fire Jim Bowden says "at first blush this is the kind of deal we should be doing."
We've Got Heart also figured the Nats would get more prospects for Rauch.
Bleacher Banter's intitial reaction is positive.

Something interesting I wanted to pass along (from Nationals Journal commenter "e"):

I'm going to try and be optimistic about this. I'm not thinking "another Nook Logan." I'm going to think, "another Jose Reyes."

Bonifacio's minor league stats:

6 seasons; 648 games; 2543 AB's
.283/.339/.360
12 HR; 216 RBI
209 BB; 528 K
226 SB; 65 CS (78%)

Jose Reyes' minor league stats:

4 seasons; 343 games; 1303 AB's
.285/.338/.423
13 HR; 135 RBI
101 BB; 217 K
129 SB; 44 CS (75%)

Sure, the strikeouts are a concern, but he has cut down on them some this season.

Reyes didn't start hitting homers until his second full season with the Mets.

My first reaction is that we got a decent player in a position of need. I think we could have gotten more for Rauch (perhaps another low-level prospect), but if this was Rauch's market, I'm happy. I heard rumors of Reid Brignac for Rauch, which would have made me happier, but this is fine. I'd also like to point out that the trade is with Arizona, which means Bonifacio is a Rizzo boy. I like Rizzo's guys.

I'm looking for Joel Hanrahan to become the new closer rather than Saul Rivera. Hanrahan's numbers are good enough for the role (although Rivera's are a bit better), but Hanrahan seems like a better option for the long-term (Hanrahan is 26, Rivera is 30). I'd rather see him learn into the role now (since he's got electric stuff) when we don't have many legitimate options in the back of the pen. (side note-it's amazing that this is the first time I've ever tagged Saul Rivera in an entry. He's that non-descript, I guess). Ryan Wagner is probably going to replace Rauch on the 25-man roster.

Now to Guzman-Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times says the deal is $8 mil per year for 2 years. That seems a bit steep, considering he did basically nothing in years 1-3 of his current contract, but it does seem he has turned his career around for the most part. At this point, I don't think the price even matters, since we already know the Lerners aren't going to spend any money anyways.

And the current polls on Nationals Journal indicate that there is widespread approval (82% at this time) of Guzman's signing, but mild skepticism (58% approval) concerning the Rauch trade.

Quick odds and ends

• Added the link to the Nationals Farm Authority Big Board to the links on the right. Check it out every week if you want to live a happy, fulfilling life.

• Check out Pop'rs. My understanding of Pop'rs is that they are seasonings you put on foods, but have a good source of many vitamins and don't have a whole lot of sugar/carbs/sodium. Flavors go from Cocoa to Butter to Strawberry to Taco. Click the link to find out more, and you can enter a contest here to try them.

• I'm also proud of Nationals pitcher Joel Hanrahan for doing some fundraising for the floods in Iowa, where he is from. If you want to bid on any of the items from the online auction (or just wnat to peruse them), check it out here.

• Late Edit: Fredericksburg.com is reporting that Hill COULD be out for the year:

  Right-hander Shawn Hill yesterday did not rule out the possibility that he could be out for the season. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Thursday with a strained right forearm, and he will be out indefinitely.

  "At this point, I honestly think that this is what it needs," Hill said. "I haven't had a good period of rest for a couple years now. I haven't had a good year to rest where my arm can just strictly rest up, heal up and catch up from all the abuse it's taken. At the same time it's frustrating because it's the middle of the season."

  Hill will leave the team and go to his offseason home in Florida in the next few days. He said his arm hurts even when he's doing normal, everyday activities. When that pain subsides, he'll decide when to begin a rehabilitation and throwing program.

Why I'm smarter than you

Before you pull out your SAT scores and college GPA, hear me out for a second.

Remember this post? When I suggested Hanrahan was improving and might actually become not only a good reliever but a viable fantasy option? Well since that post, Hanrahan has thrown 12 and 1/3 innings, only allowing 2 earned runs (a 1.46 ERA) with 9 walks and 10 strikeouts (although 5 of those walks came in one game). But over that span, Hanrahan has allowed 2 HITS! The man is unhittable! The man is on fire (cue Ricky Bobby references).

If you include the stats I used in that post, in Hanrahan's last 12 outings (spanning 19 and 2/3 innings), he has allowed 4 runs, 13 hits, 10 walks, 23 strikeouts and has lowered his ERA from 7.71 to 3.72. For a reliever, 19 and 2/3 innings is a pretty long time. When you mention he has a 1.83 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a 10.53 K/9 over that span, you have a heck of a reliever. And don't forget, he's the 5th manliest Nationals player. Ladies, I present to you Joel Ryan Hanrahan of Des Moines, Iowa!

So I may not be smarter than you (it was just a catchy title), but I totally called that.

Bergmann to start Thursday

My wish came true! Bergmann is going to be the starter for Thursday's game against the Mets. Hopefully this means Chico gets a ticket to Columbus to work on his pitching (notice I didn't say control or velocity...I said pitching in general, because he has a ton to work on). The Washington Times' Mark Zuckerman suggests that the corresponding player sent down will either be Hanrahan or Chico, but I would be surprised if Hanrahan (who is out of options) would be sent to AAA.
Bergmann's definitely not perfect, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. I'm glad the team rewarded his recent success in AAA, because he only had 3 games (and 2 starts) to show his stuff this year, an incredibly small sample size.

UPDATE-MAY 15, 10:30 AM
Schroder was sent down to make room for Bergmann. Quit toying with the guy, will ya Jimbo?

When it rains...

Well you know that Fish thrive in water. But did they really have to score 11 on one of our feel-good stories, local kid Mike O'Connor? Did Andrew Miller, Taylor Tankersley and Matt Lindstrom really have to hold us to 3 hits tonight?

We were apparently spoiled by a pseudo-streak against the Cubs, Braves and Pirates so much that many of us actually expected results against the Marlins. All I've got to say: watching the last two games seriously sucked. The only good things tonight: Rauch had 1 inning, 0 runs, 0 hits, 2 K. Lopez was 2/4. That's it...seriously. At least in last night's 7-3 loss, we saw 3 multi-hit games (Guzman, Johnson, Milledge), an extra base hit (Guzman's double) and 3 shutout innings by Matt Chico and Joel Hanrahan.

Let's just hope this doesn't give anyone a reason to throw Matt Chico back into the rotation. Give Bergmann another shot. Give Balester a shot. Please get rid of one of these lefties who can't pitch! Convert them into LOOGYs or something.

UPDATE-MAY 11, 7:40 PM
It appears my wish came true, with Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times (via Capitol Punishment) reporting that O'Connor is being sent down and Chris Schroder will be recalled in his place. Zuckerman also notes that the move may be temporary, as O'Connor's rotation spot needs to be filled. It all depends on whether or not the team is willing to throw Matt Chico back into the rotation already or if they'll instead call upon Jason Bergmann or one of the pitching prospects such as Balester, Mock, etc.

Who is the manliest player on the Nationals?

I spent much of today contemplating my personal manliness after shaving off my beloved red beard. I then started thinking about how a beard isn't necessary to be manly. You can have huge muscles, a deep voice, man-machines (such as tractors, vintage cars, pickup trucks, etc) and other things of the variety. This led me to look at the Nats, and see who of the team is at least mildly manly. On the surface, you're looking at the big guys (Rauch, Pena, Kearns to some degree, Hanrahan, Johnson etc.) and the guys with beards (Redding). A few other guys could possibly qualify are Aaron Boone, Odalis Perez and John Lannan (for no particular reason, really). Ryan Zimmerman does not qualify for any manliness award, as he attended UVA (the "University of Suck"), likely drank Zima and wore pastel-colored polos. No matter what he does on the field, he is too far in the negative to ever recover from UVA-level negative Man Points.

Some quick rules about my accounting: I give batters +1.5 Man Points for a walk and -1 Man Point for a strikeout. Pitchers receive +1 Man Point for a strikeout and -2/3 Man Points for each walk. Batters receive +2 Man Points for every home run, while Pitchers lose 3 Man Points for every home run allowed. Everyone recieves 1 Man Point for each inch above 6'2" they are and 1 Man Point for each 10 pounds above 220 they are.

For your amusement, here are the 5 Nationals I think are the most manly:

5. Joel Hanrahan (6'4" 250 lbs. Des Moines, Iowa)
While doing my preliminary list, I remembered Hanrahan for 3 manly things: He's huge, he's from Iowa and he throws 95-98 mph (which leads to a very high amount of strikeouts, which are manly). Capitol Punishment awarded him his "favorite book," Where the Wild Things Are, for Christmas. Youngsters who read Where the Wild Things Are are scientifically proven to grow facial hair and win bar fights at a much younger age than kids who don't.

The Stats
24 strikeouts (24 Man Points)
13 walks (-9 Man Points)
1 home run allowed (-3 Man Points)
6'4" (2 Man Points)
250 lbs (3 Man Points)
From Iowa (1 Man Point)
Total: 18 Man Points


4. Nick Johnson (6'3" 235 lbs. Sacramento, CA)
Johnson, as we know, is Larry Bowa's nephew. He takes walks, can rake, fields well, recovered from a broken leg, shaved lightning bolts into his hair...what a man! But then when you look at his Wikipedia page and his injury history, it takes away from his man points. I mean seriously, Nick: if you want to win this competition, you simply can't tell me that you would be a software engineer (coined engi-nerds at Virginia Tech). Being an Engineer is not manly, minus this kind.

The Stats
26 walks (39 Man Points)
21 strikeouts (-21 Man Points)
5 home runs (10 Man Points)
6'3" (1 Man Point)
235 lbs (1.5 Man Points)
Long injury history (-5 Man Points)
Larry Bowa's nephew (5 Man Points)
Oh wait...it's this Larry Bowa (previously awarded 5 Man Points revoked)
From Northern California (-5 Man Points)
Buzzed a lightning bolt into hair (10 Man Points)
Had a mullet/rat tail before buzzing a lightning bolt into hair (-10 Man Points)

Total: 20.5 Man Points

3. Wily Mo Pena (6'3" 270 lbs. Laguna Salada, DR)
"The Weapon" has a great nickname and more power than your local electric company. Unfortunately, he strikes out more than I did in Little League (even in the year where I had 4 hits the entire season) and moves more like a 6'3" 270 defensive tackle than a 6'3" 270 linebacker.

The Stats
4 walks (6 Man Points)
17 strikeouts (-17 Man Points)
0 home runs (0 Man Points...wait what? Wily Mo has 0 home runs?)
6'3" (1 Man Point)
270 lbs (5 Man Points)
From the Dominican Republic!!! (10 Man Points)
Nicknames: The Weapon, Weapon of Mass Production (10 Man Points each)
Total: 25 Man Points

2. Austin Kearns (6'3" 240 lbs. Lexington, KY)
Kearns is the league's premier good ol' country boy. He wears John Deere apparel and I presume drives heavy machinery around everywhere. That being said, whoever his coaches were in Kentucky sure taught him how to field.

The Stats
16 walks (24 Man Points)
19 strikeouts (-19 Man Points)
3 home runs (6 Man Points)
6'3" (1 Man Point)
240 lbs (2 Man Points)
From KENTUCKY!! (10 Man Points)
Wears a John Deere hat (5 Man Points)
Names of two sons: Aubrey (Maybe Kearns' wife loves Aubrey Hepburn so much that she convinced him to name their first child, regardless of gender, Aubrey) and Brady (loses man points because Brady is in Tom Brady's name!) (-5 Man Points)
Nickname: Country (5 Man Points)
Total: 29 Man Points

And the winner is...
1. Jon Rauch (6'11" 290 lbs. Louisville, KY)
The tallest player in the world (of baseball's history that is) has more manliness than some third world countries. In addition to his huge, superhero/professional wrestler build, he can somehow muster the strength to lift Wil Nieves about eleven hundred feet off the ground. One last note: Rauch is almost twice as tall as the shortest player of all time, Eddie Gaedel, who stood at 3'7".

The Stats
11 strikeouts (11 Man Points)
3 walks (-2 Man Points)
2 home runs allowed (-6 Man Points)
6'11" (9 Man Points)
290 lbs (7 Man Points)
From KENTUCKY!! (10 Man Points)
Won an Olympic Gold Medal (2000 Olympic Games) (10 Man Points)
Played at Morehead State (5 Man Points)
Has a ton of tatoos (10 Man Points)
Daughter's name: Aubree (-2.5 Man Points-got the baby's gender right, but spelled it wrong)
Awesome MLB.com picture (5 Man Points)
Total: 56.5 Man Points


What are your thoughts? Leave them in comments!

Saturday's Roundup

First off, I find it incredibly ironic that one of the NFL's most respected players, Marvin Harrison, is in some trouble. Even though things are pointing at this time toward the fact that he's not responsible, I still find it hard to believe that he could have even gotten himself in that position in the first place.

The Nats got creamed yesterday and pulled out a close one today, both against the Pittsburgh Pirates. John Lannan got roughed up in last night's 11-4 loss, allowing 6 runs (5 earned) in only 3 innings. If he continues his 2:1 ratio of quality starts to complete implosions, he should be safe on the Nats' staff. His 3:2 K:BB ratio is a bit frightening at this point (although it's better than last year's atrocity of 10 K to 17 BB). At least he's getting a chance unlike last year where guys like Levale Speigner and Jerome Williams got way too many starts.

Matt Chico pitched almost as bad today, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4 and 1/3 innings. Unlike Lannan, however, Chico has only one quality start for the entire year (which makes this headline, "Nats turn to Chico for a quality start" incredibly ironic. That's like my girlfriend turning to me for fashion advice). If Michael O'Connor can bounce back from his poor performance last night (4 runs allowed in 3 and 2/3 innings in mopup work), I can see him taking over Chico's spot in the rotation while Chico trades spots in Columbus with Chris Schroder, who is wreaking havoc on AAA, with 18 K and only 1 run allowed in 10 and 1/3 innings pitched.

Don't look now, but Joel Hanrahan is bouncing back from a bad start to the year. In his last 7 and 1/3 innings (including today), he's allowed only 2 runs with 13 strikeouts and only 3 walks. It's also funny that Bill Ladson of MLB.com wrote this in the midst of Hanrahan's hottest stretch of the season. The guy's only 26 years old, and has a ton of potential (that he was light years away from last year). He's still adjusting to life in the bullpen, as this is his first year there. The team is using him mostly in blowouts (as the team is 1-12 when he pitches, only 5 games of which the winner was within 3 runs of the loser), but keep an eye on him in your fantasy leagues anyways (if anyone already has their grips on him, they must REALLY be hurting for K's) and look to pick him up if he keeps this stretch of solid, strikeout-filled pitching up.

One last Nats note: Jonah Keri of ESPN's Page 2 wrote this column while sipping on some ice cold Haterade. Inside, he names the Nats as one of five "failure dynasties" (along with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City). It's interesting, because these teams are all somewhat on the up. The Rays rebuilt their farm system and are finally looking to reap the benefits this year with a finish around .500. The Orioles started hot and guys like Adam Jones and Matt Weiters show a ton of promise. Pittsburgh has some chips to move at the deadline, including Xavier Nady, and could come away with some prize prospects to make up for some bad drafting in the early 21st century. Kansas City is a bit of a disappointment this year (thats what you get for relying too much on Jose Guillen!!) but has some guys with unlimited potential like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, not to mention some of their pitching prospects. The Nats are on the up as well, completely rebuilding their farm system with some guys they've gotten through the draft (Marrero, Willems, Smoker, Detwiler, Burgess, McGreary, etc.) and through trades (Martis, Mock). The problem is, what if none of these guys plan out (not just for the Nats, but for any team)? Then you're stuck in the perrenial rut of the "failure dynasty." While I hate to admit it, unless the Nats prove something in the next few years, they might need more than a big FA signing and a new-ish stadium to get butts in seats. The one thing I disagree with: Keri says the Nats won't have a winning season until 2012. I think that they should be able to hit .500 by 2010.