Monday Inbox

It's that time again! Here is the inbox:

I'm concerned about promoting Stephen Strasburg to the Major Leagues so quickly. I'd like to see him learn how to pitch for a season or two in the Minors first. I remember David Clyde coming up too soon for the Rangers in the early 1970s and would hate to see that repeated.
-- Richard G., Washington, D.C.

I get your point, but the Clyde/Strasburg comparison is apples-to-oranges. Clyde made his ML debut as an 18 year old right out of high school and the same year he was drafted. Even if Strasburg pitched on Opening Day, he would be 3 years older, with 3 years of college at San Diego State and some time spent against legitimate prospects in the Arizona Fall League and some legitimate ML/AAAA/AAAers in Spring Training. That's a ton more experience than Clyde ever had before making his first start.

But I digress to the actual point: Strasburg should only start the year in a Nats uniform if he has an ERA under 1.00 during Spring Training. Unless his other-worldly talent brings other-worldly success, he needs to spend at least a few months in the minors to tune up and learn the game, both on and off of the field.

With Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang out for a few months, do you think Chuck James might get a chance to become part of the starting rotation?
-- Don M., Stratford, PE, Canada

I would put his chances at 1% or less. James didn't pitch at all in 2009 and was awful in the Majors in 2008 (albeit pretty good in AAA). He was never as good as his numbers indicated, either. He's not a bad guy to have around in case of a large number of catastrophic injuries, but I wouldn't list him amongst the top 10 or so options to break camp in the starting rotation.

Bringing back reliever Ron Villone made me wonder why the Nats didn't re-sign Mike MacDougal. MacDougal was one of the few bright spots last year.
-- Luke H., Prince Frederick, Md.

Well, considering Meiklejohn only got a minor league deal from the Marlins, apparently every other team felt the same way about him. He had more walks than strikeouts for goodness sake! Again, he's not a bad fall back option for the league minimum, but just because he led the worst team in baseball in saves doesn't make him a good closer.

Since Wang will not be available until later in the season, would the Nationals have any interest in pursuing John Smoltz as an early-season starter and then moving him to the bullpen where he could provide leadership and help shore up middle relief?
-- Glenn B., Arlington, Va.

If they could sign him to a deal worth $2 mil or less plus incentives, I'd be fine with it. His stats from last year are deceiving; he had a 3-8 record and a 6.35 ERA but a 3.87 FIP. He'll definitely bounce back at least some from a poor season last year, but I wouldn't be willing to pay him anywhere near the $5.5 mil he was guaranteed last year.

One other note on Smoltz-he only threw 80 innings last year and 28 in 2008. Don't expect him to be able to toss 150 innings.

I find it interesting that you focus so much on the defensive weaknesses of Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Cristian Guzman. Yet, you seem to have a selective memory when it comes to the defense of Elijah Dukes, who was average at best and had many misplays and errors.
-- Robert M., Daytona Beach, Fla.

The difference between Dukes and Willingham/Dunn is that Dukes actually gets to the ball and THEN makes an error. Dukes has a career UZR/150 of 2.8 in RF and I'd be more than happy with that.

I noticed that outfielder Chris Duncan is a non-roster invitee. He was a fan favorite in St. Louis. What are his chances of making the roster out of Spring Training?
-- Tim S. Richmond, Va.

I think he has a great chance to be honest. The Nats don't have any lefthanded hitters with any pop to come off the bench. If he puts up decent numbers in Spring Training, I think he'll stick. With a career line of .270/.366/.485 against righties, I think he'd be an awesome guy to have around to serve as a late game pinch hitter or Elijah Dukes platoon partner IF he rebounds from an awful stretch in 2007-08. But like Ladson said, pairing him back up with Rick Eckstein could help him a bunch.

Dunn seems fine at first base, and everyone is raving about Chris Marrero's bat, but what about Mike Morse? When he came up late last year, he looked solid as a rock to me.
-- Woody S., Arlington, Va.

Morse is a pretty decent bench bat, but I'm not counting on him to do a lot more than that. His bat is essentially Cristian Guzman's but with more power. He rarely walks but strikes out a lot, which could hurt his chances as the season rolls on.

2 Nats that could surprise us in 2010

Everyone is undefeated in Spring Training, even the Nationals! But that does not mean that everyone is projected to have a great season. Today, I'll take a look at two Nats that I think can outperform their projections in 2010: Scott Olsen and Jesus Flores.

Scott Olsen, LHSP

Olsen had a rough 2009, with an awful 6.03 ERA in just 62 and 2/3 innings pitched. His season ended in July when he had labrum surgery and he claims to be back toabout 80% of his normal form. I think Olsen can more than challenge the 4.95 ERA and 119 IP projection that comes from an average of the Bill James, Marcel and CHONE projections.

• He's hungry. On Friday, he told Dave Shenin of the Washington Post, "Last year was horrible. I have a lot to prove to the organization and to people in baseball in general." It's a little bit cliche, but I don't think you can ever underestimate an athlete looking to prove themselves.
• The Nats' defense has improved. Hopefully, we will see Adam Kennedy and Nyjer Morgan step in with full seasons of above average defense that will replace the likes of Ronnie Belliard and Alberto Gonzalez at 2B, and Elijah Dukes and Willie Harris in CF. In addition, Adam Dunn will play 1B exclusively. For somebody that doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters (projections range between 5.54 K/9 and 6.77 K/9), the defense behind you is important.
• Olsen is still young enough to rebound. Even if Olsen's arm issues were not a major reason behind his regression. I still think he can rebound in 2010. He's just 26 years old; if he puts in enough effort in the weight room and in Spring Training to get his fastball velocity back to 90-91 mph, I think he'll be alright. It's far from a guarantee, but I think Olsen has a higher chance of bouncing back to even a 4.50 ERA, 180 IP #4 starter than people give him credit for.

Jesus Flores, C

Flores is also coming back from a shoulder injury in 2009, but he did play very well while healthy. While the current state of his shoulder is in question, and I definitely don't think any more than 90 games can be expected out of Flores this year, I think the average projection of .264/.325/.422 is a little bit conservative. Here's why:

• He hit .301/.371/.505 last year. While I believe in the statement "don't always believe in a small sample size," his numbers show that he chased less pitches outside the strike zone than in 2008 (O-Swing % down from 36.9% in 2008 to 34.0% in 2009) and made better contact across the board (contact % up from 71.8% in 2008 to 78.3% in 2009). I don't necessarily think his 10.4 BB% or .204 ISO will hold up, but I don't think it's crazy to expect a BB% in the 7's or an ISO around .175. My FanGraphs Fan Prediction of Flores ended up with a .269/.324/.444 line and I'll stick with that.
• The addition of Pudge Rodriguez will be beneficial for Flores as well. Sure, he got to play a little bit along side veteran catchers like Paul Lo Duca and Brian Schneider, but neither of them are Pudge Rodriguez. Here's a good quote from an article about Pudge from this afternoon: "[Rodriguez] warmly greeted veterans and rookies alike, some youngsters awed that a future Hall of Famer was introducing himself to them. 'Years ago, I was watching that guy on TV and now I'm playing on the same team,' beamed fellow catcher Jesus Flores."

For the record, I was going to include Elijah Dukes on this list as well. I decided against it because I think the whole Natmosphere sees him rebounding from a lousy 2009. Put me down for around a .265/.360/.450 line for Dukes and we'll leave it at that.

Inbox and Thoughts

I'm going to start today with this week's Inbox and move along to some other thoughts afterwards.

How good can outfielder Elijah Dukes be if he plays up to his potential?
-- Jake T., Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.
Dukes can be a perennial All-Star if he plays up to his potential. He can hit 30 HR and steal 20 bases while reaching base consistently and playing decent defense. But I do believe the likelihood of Dukes playing up to his potential is waning each year; he still hasn't proven he can hit consistently well on a major league level.

If they stay relatively healthy, are the Nationals possible playoff contenders or will they finish below .500?
-- Jeff H, Washington
Possible? Sure. Probable? No. The Nats need both health and luck to finish .500 or above.

I notice that you get a lot of heat for getting on Adam Dunn's defense. How do feel about the criticism you get for it?
-- Ken J., Washington
Ladson doesn't have anything to apologize about. Dunn's defense is below average at 1B and worse in the outfield. He has to work extremely hard to get his glove in line this year, or else the Nats could be in big trouble with Zimmerman and Desmond throwing to him at 1B.

How many at-bats do you think Ivan Rodriguez will get this season? I really think he wants to make a run at 3,000 hits, and I'm sure the Nats are aware of this.
-- Dave, New York
Wait...Ladson says “Jesus Flores will be out for quite some time after right shoulder surgery.” ACK! He'll still be out for quite some time once the season starts? If that's the case, the Nats need more than Wil Nieves and Jamie Burke to fill Flores' void.
I do agree with Ladson that the Nats need to ease Flores into things when he's healthy enough to play. No need in rushing him back; I'd rather see him play the whole span of a season, even if he ends up playing in fewer games total. Think long-term with Jesus.

Now on to the actual question: 400. I don't think he'll be in position to hit 3,000 hits until 2012, if he's still around.

I wanted to know what your thoughts were about possibly bringing in Gary Sheffield as a big bat off the bench for the Nationals?
-- David H., Laytonsville, Md.
Ick. I don't know what is with people asking about washed up veterans in the mailbag, but it's starting to get old (just like Gary Sheffield). His bat is declining fast and he's even more of a DH than Adam Dunn.

Now on to some bullet-point thoughts:

• I would like to thank DC Sports Report for their yearly review of Nationals blogs (check out last year's list here). I'm proud that their authors bumped me up from a 3 star blog last year to 4 this year. All of the blogs I link to regularly got at least 4 stars as well, so congrats to NFA, NationalsFanboyLooser, FJB and Nats News Network and everyone else!
• MLBTR has the current list of borderline roster players across the league that are out of options. The Nats have one of the longest lists, with at least 9 players: Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Chico, Clippard, Morse, Slaten, Walker and Willingham. My guess is that 7 of the 9 stick, with Chico and Slaten getting outrighted (and I'd guess that they'd accept being sent to AAA because they have as good of a chance at getting back to the bigs with the Nats as with anyone else).
• Nationals Journal has their guess at the Opening Day 25 man roster posted. Here's mine (so far):

PITCHERS (12): Batista, Bergmann, Bruney, Burnett, Capps, Clippard, Lannan (Opening Day starter), Marquis (#2), Olsen (#3), Speier, Stammen (#4) and Walker.

I think Mock will be the #5 starter but he won't be needed until April 19, so I think they'll carry an extra reliever in Batista/Speier until then. When they're ready to call Mock up, they'll DFA whichever of the two is doing worse.

CATCHERS (2): Nieves and Rodriguez (OD Starter at C).

Like Chico, I'm not willing to bet that Flores will be around for Opening Day. I certainly hope he will, but I'm not expecting it.

INFIELDERS (6): Desmond, Dunn (OD Starter at 1B), Guzman (OD Starter at SS), Kennedy (OD Starter at 2B), Morse, Zimmerman (OD Starter at 3B).

Yes, I do think the Nats will break camp with Desmond on the 25-man roster. No, I do not think he will be an Opening Day starter. And no, I do not think having him on the bench is a good idea. I think that this would be a decent distribution of PT for what it's worth: Desmond-30% at 2B and 40% at SS, Guzman-60% at SS and Kennedy-70% at 2B. Obviously not scientific, but I think something like that would be feasible.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Dukes (OD Starter at RF), Duncan, Harris, Morgan (OD Starter at CF), Willingham (OD Starter at LF).

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Chris Duncan makes the squad on Opening Day. His lefthanded bat certainly helps his cause.

Inbox

What is the status of right-hander Jordan Zimmermann? Will he be able to pitch in 2010?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Not looking like it, but it would be a pleasant surprise.

Would the Nationals consider bringing Felipe Lopez back?
-- Michael B, Washington.

People keep asking and Ladson keeps answering the same way: NO! But that makes me wonder, why doesn't he just stop answering?

I think J.D. Martin should be given the chance to earn a spot on the big-league staff. What do you think?
-- Ken N., Ridgecrest, Calif.

Given a chance at a spot? Sure. Guaranteed a spot? No. There is going to be a lot of competition when pitchers and catchers report next month (NEXT MONTH!!!). It's better than in previous years because more than one or two of these guys actually deserve to be on an ML roster.

Will the Nats try to extend Adam Dunn's contract or is he here for just one year?
-- Ed J., Gallup, N.M.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Dunn is gone at (or before) the deadline. If for some reason they won't/can't move him, I could easily see them signing him for a few more years. It appears that he likes it here and the other players like him, too.

I don't agree that the Nats should not be looking for offense. Surely, there is a lower-priced outfielder who can come in and challenge Elijah Dukes in right field. Am I wrong?
-- Bobby M., North Potomac, Md.

I agree completely. While I think Dukes is going to have a nice year, we can't afford to put all of our eggs in one basket on that kind of bet. I was hoping for a Ryan Church reunion as a 4th OF, but he's apparently signing with the Pirates. How about Jonny Gomes? Rocco Baldelli? Reed Johnson? Gabe Gross?

What kind of contract is Hudson is seeking?
-- Bill M., Fairfax, Va.

"Based on what I was told, Hudson wants $9 million for 2010, and the Nationals are not willing to give Hudson that kind of money."-Ladson

Yikes. I wouldn't go much further above $6-7 million (plus incentives) for Hudson. But if it's a one year deal, it shouldn't be too catastrophic.

Do you think the Nats will have their middle-infield needs resolved before pitchers and catchers report next month?
-- Ken G., Montreal

If they do, it will be right at the deadline. I envision Rizzo as the kind of guy who lets the market decide itself, getting him the best deals he can on potential bargains.

Late Inbox, Link Parade

Sorry it's been so long in between posts...a week without Ladson-bashing is just too long!

Here's your inbox:

I would think a player as strong as outfielder Elijah Dukes would hit far more home runs than he has this season. What are the Nationals doing to improve Dukes' long ball production?
-- Mike, M. Smithfield, Va.

Pitch recognition and getting into hitters counts are the two buzz-topics for Dukes' lack of success at the plate this year, and I tended to agree at first...but then I looked at his game logs. Since coming back from AAA on August 1, Dukes has greatly improved his plate discipline, with 23 walks and 23 strikeouts, but only 12 extra base hits in 46 games. I'm guessing (and hoping) his current lack of power is just an aberration and will come back next year...but 11 HR in 482 PA through all levels this year is a little bit worrisome.

Both FanGraphs and FJB have posted thought-provoking entries on Dukes' "Setback Season," so check them out. Nats Inquisition just posted "Shades of Austin Kearns" regarding Dukes as well.

Do you think Dukes will be with the Nationals next season?
-- Kay B., Washington D.C.

Without a doubt. He's the most talented player in the entire system, has been a model citizen in Washington and is under team control. Rizzo's not a dummy-he's not going to dump Dukes.

Is it possible that the Nationals attempt to acquire DC native Emmanuel Burriss to fill the void at second base? He seems like a solid middle infielder, and I can see him becoming a fan favorite if he was a member of the Nats.
-- Alex H. Washington, D.C.

A move like this wouldn't surprise me, but I don't think Burriss is on the Giants' trade block, nor do I think he is a great option to start for the Nats. As a backup/platoon role, sure, but he's worth more to San Francisco right now than the Nats.

As well as Desmond has played since being called up, don't you think he deserves a chance to take over the starting shortstop position next season, with Guzman moving to second or being dealt? Desmond seems to have a great glove and I think he would fit nicely in the second spot in the order behind Nyjer Morgan.
-- Ryan K, Carlisle, Pa.

The chances of Desmond being the starting SS next year are above 50% I'd say. At the end of the day, I don't think Guzman is going to switch to 2B easily (or happily) and will probably end up being dealt. I'm still hoping for a Desmond-Iwamura infield.

Would the Nationals trade for outfielder Milton Bradley if the Cubs paid all of his salary?
-- David L., Poland

If the Cubs paid all of his salary (unlikely), I would put the chances of it happening at .01%. If they did not pay all of his salary, 0%. The Nats don't particularly need Bradley and it doesn't make sense to add a headache when you don't particularly need the player.

Looks like nothing has changed. This is why I don't like you. You want to trade Adam Dunn? What does this guy have to do to please you? Without him the offense would collapse.

-- Richard A., Annapolis, Md.

"You are entitled to your opinion about me. To your first question,: Yes, indeed, if I could get top pitching and defense in a trade for Dunn, it would make sense. He doesn't have to please me. The question was, if I were in Rizzo's shoes what I would do? I would look to see Dunn gain more range when it comes to playing first base. There is no question Dunn has been great with the bat."

Top pitching in a trade for Dunn? I'll take some of that! Too bad nobody will give up top pitching for Adam Dunn....

Links:

2009 Nationals season in graphs (Beyond the Box Score)

The best and worst MLB projections of the year (Vegas Watch) (note-we'll be going over our projections when the season officially ends)

Stammen willing to pitch out of the pen next year (Ladson's Blog)

The Nats celebrate their 5th anniversary today! (Nationals Journal)

Bobby Valentine doesn't rule out returning to the Mets (Yahoo! Sports)

2010 Roster Building-Right Fielders

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Right Field. Follow along with the series here.

RIGHT FIELDERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Elijah Dukes and Mark DeRosa

Other possibilities in the organization: Justin Maxwell and Leonard Davis

The Nats really, really, REALLY need Elijah Dukes to return to his 2008 form next year. Why is that? There is no other option on the market for a full-time RF that the Nats would realistically go after (or that would want to come to the Nats). Dukes has significantly lower power and walk numbers this year in addition to huge drop in defensive value in RF. FJB suggests Dukes needs to find himself in more hitters counts, and it certainly makes sense. We know Dukes is capable of returning to his 2008 self in terms of power. We can hope he returns to that form in terms of his eye and his defense. I believe he'll rebound, and I don't believe for a second that the Nats would non-tender him. It doesn't make sense from a talent perspective, but it also doesn't make sense when you consider the poor free agent market.

The best option out there for the Nats is Mark DeRosa, who would fit in very well with the Nats. It would give them a backup plan at 2B in case the Guzman transition fails, a good corner OF platoon guy and really a competant fielder at every position besides C and CF. It wouldn't be fair to call DeRosa a "bench guy" (and obviously, he wouldn't agree to that role), but he would be a nomad of sorts, playing mostly 2B and RF. I think he would be a good signing and would continue to give the Nats more options defensively.

As I've said before about Maxwell and Davis, neither are really ideal candidates, but that's the (lack of) depth of the Nats in AAA/AA. Mike Daniel could emerge as another option, but his setback season in 2009 doesn't exactly help his candidacy.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Austin Kearns

Apparently his value didn't bottom out after the 2008 season. I'll avoid talking about Kearns a whole lot, but he is what he is: a 29 year old plus defender who was seeing 70s and 80s in his R and RBI totals only two seasons ago. The Nats certainly won't pick up his option, but Kearns might flock back to familiarity in a weak free agent market. I wouldn't bet on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Jermaine Dye

It may seem out of the blue, but Dye may be the Nats' one chance of making a statement in the free agent market this offseason. I don't see them chasing Holliday or Bay, but could go after Dye if the White Sox fail to pick up his option or offer him arbitration (he's a type A free agent, and not really worth giving up the draft picks). He's still a slugger, but is poor in the field, so it may seem like another Dunn/Willingham addition, but if the Nats for some reason non-tender Dukes (they shouldn't, but that's not to say that they couldn't), he could be an option.

2009 production by Nats right fielders to date: .247/.345/.444, 21 HR, 59 R, 84 RBI

2010 projection: Improved slash line, similar number of HR/RBI, more runs. Less Kearns/2009 Dukes=more production.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

2010 Roster Building-Center Fielders

Next in line for my new plan for the Nats is Center Field. Follow along with the series here.

CENTER FIELDERS

Best combination of idealistic and realistic candidates: Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris

Other possibilities in the organization: Justin Maxwell and Elijah Dukes

Let me point out first that I love Nyjer Morgan. Let me point out second that he is not as much of a sure thing as we think. Is he ridiculously fast? Yes. Is he a ridiculolusly good defensive centerfielder? Yes. Is he a legit leadoff man? Ehhhh...I'm still not convinced.

Morgan showed excellent improvement in his batting eye in the first part of the year with Pittsburgh (from less than 6% in both ML and AAA in 2008 to 9.4% in his 278 plate appearances with the Pirates) but regressed greatly with the Nats (back down to 5.4%). It is not safe to assume he will walk at the same rate in 2010 as he did in 2009, nor is it safe to assume that he will even come close to the robust .351/.396/.435 batting line he put up for the Nats. If he stays below a 6% walk rate, he'd have to hit .290 or above to maintain the .350 OBP that is asthetically pleasing for a leadoff man.

What we do know is that Nyjer is an excellent fielder and a better baserunner than in his past (a 77% success rate is good, and much better than his 64% success rate with Pittsburgh). These two traits in themselves are incredibly valuable, so much that before Nyjer's breakout in Washington, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argued that he was just as valuable as Adam Dunn. What we do not know is if Nyjer is really the leadoff man we expect him to be. I certainly hope he is (and believe he is), but it's not as much of a sure thing as we think.

In terms of the other guys, Dukes would only be the long-term CF if a player outside of the organization was brought in to play RF and Morgan was injured. Even so, I would expect Maxwell and Harris to pass him on the food chain, like they have this year. Harris could have a big bounce-back year, as his BB% and isolated slugging have either risen or stayed constant but his batting average has bottomed out. If his luck evens out, he could have another 2008-level season in 2010. Maxwell continues to disappoint me, but I do believe he'll eventually be at the very least a good 4th outfielder for the Nats.

Sleeper Pick (from the organization): Norris Hopper

Sitting in AAA is a player not dissimilar to Nyjer Morgan. Hopper has hopped from organization to organization in 2009, coming over to the Nats in August along with Daryle Ward from the White Sox. FJB ran a nice post about Hopper's value when Morgan came down, and I do believe he would be an excellent player to have as a 5th outfielder and start in CF vs left-handed opposing pitchers (for the record, Morgan is very bad against LHP in his career: .200/.302/.286 in 183 plate appearances whereas Hopper is very good against LHP in his career: .367/.406/.456 in 175 plate appearances). Hopper is basically a right-handed version of Nyjer Morgan (minus a little speed and fielding ability, but not so much that he's below average). It almost makes too much sense to happen, and I really wish the Nats would have given him a shot rather than the obviously not ML-ready Justin Maxwell during the roster expansion.

Sleeper Pick (from outside the organization): Rocco Baldelli

Just as my Randy Winn pick from yesterday, I could see the Nats bringing Baldelli aboard as a Kearns-type, albeit one with more fielding ability and upside. Baldelli might cost a little bit more based on his decent 2009 season (.254/.315/.462). With his walks and strikeouts rising over his career averages and his isolated power staying steady, I don't think Baldelli is much different of a player than he was in the mid-2000s with the Rays (other than the knowledge of the form of channelopathy he suffers from), and still possesses huge upside. I do expect him to stick with the hometown Red Sox, though, until he truly gets back on his feet from a medical perspective.

2009 production by Nats center fielders to date: .268/.349/.390, 8 HR, 75 R, 53 RBI, 37/53 SB

2010 projection: I expect the slash line to remain semi-constant, with the batting average probably improving into the .280-.290 range (depending on how much Morgan plays), but with the OBP and SLG remaining similar. Runs will improve, but not as much as one might expect, as Morgan does run into a lot of outs on the basepaths. I do believe that next year will be the year that Morgan finally takes the next step into baserunning responsibility. He is a special talent and a smart player, and I think that he could finally become a premiere baserunner (not just basestealer) next year.

Resources-

A list of 2010 Free Agents can be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A list of the Nats currently under contract can also be found at Cot's.

The latest projected Elias Rankings (for Type A/B Free Agent purposes) can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Splits for the Nats' 2009 season by position can be found at Baseball-Reference.

The Nats' organizational big board can be found at Nationals Farm Authority.

Morgan out for the year: who will replace him?

By now, I'm sure most of you have heard that Nyjer Morgan is out for the season, after breaking his hand sliding into third. That leaves us with a gaping hole to fill for the last 34 games of the season. I've come up with a list of players both inside and outside of the organization who could fill in for Morgan in CF for the remainder of the season.

Internal options:

Willie Harris-Probably the most popular option amongst the Natmosphere, but is it the right one? He's not a natural CF, and despite being fast, is not much more than average defensively. I expect Willie to get more starting time at CF, but would highly doubt seeing the Nats hand him the full-time role.

Elijah Dukes-Moving Dukes to CF gives the Nats the most flexibility, as they do have plenty of corner outfielders who can fill in at least temporarily there. Dukes is not as good of a defensive CF as Willie Harris, but the ability to have Harris fill in around the field and off of the bench may be more valuable than the difference in fielding ability.

Jorge Padilla-In a a pinch, sure. As a starter, no.

Justin Maxwell-I'd like to see Maxwell finish the year in the minors and get a grasp on hitting. He's a good fielder, but he simply doesn't have the bat yet.

Norris Hopper-read up about this possibility at FJB.

External options:

Matt Murton-Adding Murton would likely shift Dukes to the full-time CF role, but I'm fine with that. Murton is a good, cheap, reliable player and I would love to see him in a Nats uniform. Kinda like a poor man's 2006 Austin Kearns.

Chris Duncan-Just like Murton, signing Duncan would probably shift Dukes to CF. Unlike Murton, Duncan is a free agent, and would only cost the Nats the pro-rated league minimum for the rest of the season (Murton was DFA'ed, giving the Rockies 10 days to try and get something for him).

My vote is for the Nats to acquire Murton or Duncan to play a corner and shift Dukes to CF, while giving Harris spot starts in CF for the rest of the year. Obviously, Nyjer being healthy would be plan #1, but that's not an option anymore.

Sunday Inbox, because watching this game makes me want to kill myself

One quick thought: Brian Moehler??? REALLY???

Here's your inbox:

Besides John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Zimmerman, who fits in the Nationals' long-term plans?
-- Alex C., Montreal

Flores, Detwiler and Morgan jump out at me. I'm still not 100% sold on Stammen or Gonzalez, but they could easily be added to that list.

Do you think that there would be any benefit to the Nats making an offer to B.J. Ryan? He's certainly struggled this year, but he can't be any worse than what they already have?
-- Richard H., Toronto

Why not? Could he be worse than Julian Tavarez?

J.D. Martin has a pretty good record with Triple-A Syracuse. Why not bring him up to work out of the bullpen.
-- Jeff. H, Washington, D.C.

You're preaching to the choir. He'll start some games in September I bet.

Do you see the Nationals calling up Kory Casto this year? If so, at what position? I remember him playing left field, third base and some first base last year.
-- Patrick S., Fairfax, Va.

I doubt they would, and if they did it would probably be as a super-utility guy. It would be nice to have a legitimate 3B to backup Zimmerman, but I don't think Casto is that player.

I completely agree with sending outfielder Elijah Dukes down to Syracuse to work on his swing. At the same time, Dukes has 10 outfield assists, which leads all Nationals outfielders. So, on that note, do you believe that he's the long-term solution at right field, assuming he gets his swing going again?
-- Harris F., Silver Spring, Md.

I think he's in the team's long-term plans until they trade him. Up to that point, they'll play him once he heats back up.

Trade, Dukes, Tickets

First impression of the trade from yesterday: Ugh. After sleeping on it, it's not SO bad anymore, but the kicker for me really was the inclusion of Joel Hanrahan. Morgan for Milledge is whatever...I have given up on Millz myself, so that's fine. But why we threw in Hanrahan for Burnett I have no idea. Burnett is nothing special (as you saw today), whereas Hanrahan, despite his flashes of "WTF," has good stuff. While it is only 1 team, apparently Colorado was interested in him, and I'm sure many others were as well. Selling low on Milledge is fine by me, but Hanrahan not so much.

Overall, I'm trying to align my feelings with Dave Cameron's analysis of the deal, but feel myself closer to that of most others.

In other news, the Nats sent Dukes to AAA today. Smart move...while Dukes is at worst the 3rd best OF we've got, he's the only one with options, and you simply can't bench Dunn/Willingham. Get Dukes the AB's he needs and call him back up when one of Dunn/Willingham/Johnson is dealt.

Some links:

Morgan = Dunn (Fangraphs)

Elijah Dukes Next? (FakeTeams)

Zimmermann: Best Rookie Pitcher? (Fangraphs)

Lastings' impression not positive (Post-Gazette)

In the meantime, does anyone have any tickets for this Sunday's game against Atlanta that they're not planning on using? I'll buy them off of you if the price is right, just email me at sean.t.hogan@gmail.com. I'm ideally looking for 4-6, but we can talk.

Sunday Inbox, various notes

To start out, here's the inbox:

With Guzman struggling defensively at shortstop, is there any chance he could be the Nationals' second baseman next year? The guy is a hitting machine, and I would love to keep his bat in the lineup.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I could see it happening, but there is no way for us to see how Guz could make the transition unless we actually tried it out. I'd say the chances of this happening are low (mainly because I think they'll deal him at the deadline), but wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

Is Dunn in the team's long-term plans?
-- Yu-Hung Su, Chiayi, Taiwan

Ladson says no, but I have a feeling he is. The Nats need a more interesting icon than Zimmerman (unfortunately, he is very boring) and it appears that Nats fans are more accepting of his shortcomings because he is worth so much offensively. No matter what the team may say about wanting to be better defensively, he is in the long-term plan until he is dealt in my eyes.

Is there any timetable for the return of Lastings Milledge and Roger Bernadina?
-- Ray U., Washington

From Ladson: "Milledge is playing in the Gulf Coast League after breaking his right hand more than a month ago. However, I don't see him playing in the big leagues for the Nationals, because many in the organization believe he is not an impact player.

As far as Bernadina goes, he still is recovering from a left ankle injury, and the Nationals are hoping he will be playing in Major Leagues by September."

I disagree with Ladson-I bet Milledge will be up soon after he returns because that will be a chance for them to deal Willingham while his value is high.

Can the Nationals do something about Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard when it comes to the low batting averages?
-- Shelton A., Silver Spring, Md.

Besides being patient, I don't really think so. Like Ladson said, Eckstein will work on it with them, but there's no guarantee it will work.

Do you think the Nats should re-sign Nick Johnson? He arguably is the most consistent player on the team.
-- Ted P., Alexandria, Va.

The Nats should trade Johnson at the deadline and then sign him in the offseason, as he will be no higher than a type B free agent (since he didn't play enough last year).

I'm a big Elijah Dukes fan, but I want to know how the Nationals feel about him?

-- Eric S., Washington

He's not a center fielder and his baseball IQ is not all there yet, but he will be a stud in RF for years to come if he can continue to behave.

Would you say Pedro Martinez is a good fit for this rotation? Someone with his kind of resume could help out a lot.
-- Philip G., Brandywine, Md.

I campaigned hard for the Nats to sign him a while ago, but every day he sits in free agency he makes less and less sense. They've found some nice young pitchers that need time in the majors. Maybe it could happen if he wants to take an offer to build up his value over the offseason in late August or early September when the young guns need to be shut down for innings totals but not now.

Some other thoughts:

J.D. Martin does deserve a shot. He'll hopefully get one when the Nats start to shut down the rookies toward the end of the year.

Craig Stammen will stay in the rotation while Shairon Martis will be sent to AAA. It's the correct move in my opinion, with age being the deciding factor. Let Martis learn to make adjustments in AAA and let Stammen pitch for his future in the majors.

I'm torn on the Langerhans-for-Morse (or as Ladson says, "Mores") swap. Morse makes more sense for the Nats, but Langerhans was one of my favorites and could have been our Nyjer Morgan defensively without us having to move Milledge. But since the organization obviously wasn't doing anything with Langerhans (heck, they called up Corey Patterson before him!), it's good to get a guy who is still young-ish, has had moderate offensive success in the majors, and can be a passable shortstop if they decide to move Guzman. But for the record, I wish they didn't have to deal Langerhans.

Buster Olney reports (via MLBTR, since I don't have insider) that the Nats are trying to get rid of their "dysfunctional players" such as Milledge. Not a bad idea at an appropriate time, but I don't support moving him when his value is at it's lowest.

Some things to think about

First of all, I don't think the combination of Elijah Dukes/Jesus Flores hitting the DL is the reason for Dunn's sudden sputtering. It's not like he could keep up his 1.100 OPS pace all year. This is baseball, and you can't blame every slump on something. Even the best of the best fail between 6 and 7 times out of 10.

Concerning Nick Johnson-I agree with FJB wholeheartedly. Don't. Overpay. For. Relief. Pitching. Yeah, our bullpen sucks. But in both our 2009 plan (the plan in which our infield doesn't get 4000 throwing errors due to Dunn at 1B) and our long-term plan (Delcarmen is arbitration-eligible after this season and will hit FA after 2012), the deal wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Trading him for a reliever is the last thing we should do-get some high risk, potentially high reward prospects for him (or fleece somebody out of some low risk, high reward prospects) and do with that. It's really not worth it for us to try and make a "patch" when there is no feasible way for us to compete in 2009.

And nobody wants Danny Almonte, just like in 2006 when nobody wanted Jeffrey Maier. I'd tend to think it would be worth the publicity stunt come the 40th round or so, but I could be wrong.

Another one bites the dust

Cintron's out. Thank goodness!

In other transactional news, Dukes to the DL while Bergmann and Maxwell are up from AAA. All I'm waiting for now is a Cabrera DFA and a Stammen callup and we're all set!

I'm in Bloomington, MN for the night (right by the Mall of America) before heading out to Chicago tomorrow. Please check out my Twitter page for more frequent updates!

Playing Catch-Up

Big post coming today. Lots of links and then the inbox!

First off, the Nats are apparently scouting Aaron Crow again this year. He would have to give the Nats his permission to be drafted again by them this year. I think the scouting is procedural-you have to scout the top 100 or 500 or 1000 players no matter what, even if you're probably not going to pick him. But I doubt he would give the Nats his permission to be re-drafted and even if he did, I doubt the Nats would re-draft him.

The Nats traded for Logan Kensing and signed Mike Macdougal recently, both of which are good moves in my opinion. You can never have enough pitching (as we've learned so far) and we gave up basically nothing for either of them. Chances are, they will probably suck (or continue to pitch the way the Nats have this year-tons of BB's), but it's always worth a shot. The only cost is money, and since it's not my money I like it!

I also like the Martis complete game. 6 K's and 0 BB's and only 110 pitches in 9 innings works for me. I think Manny's babying of our pitchers is ridiculous at times, especially considering the state of our bullpen. A step in the right direction, I guess.

Tony Gwynn says Strasburg could start in the Majors and be the Nats' #1 starter right away. I agree. Talent-wise, nobody is even comparable in the system, and he's best off hanging around our best pitching mind in Randy St. Claire anyways. At this point, I don't see how the Nats can not start him in the Majors.

Continue to keep an eye on DC Pro Sports Report's mock draft databases. Through 12 mocks of the 2009 MLB draft, there is really a mixed bag amongst candidates for the Nats' second pick. The only repeated player is University of Georgia 1B Rich Poythress. I would be stoked if he fell to the Nats at 10-he has 20 HR and more BB than K so far this year.

Dunn's "Natinals" jersey commanded $8000 at the Dream Gala. If I had that kind of money to throw around, I would probably buy it as well.

Hanrahan wants the closer job back. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that by the All Star Break, he'll have it back. Once he strings together 5 or so good appearances in a row, he'll be ready to get it back.

Even though it was previously unimaginable, the Caps' future is even brighter with Simeon Varlamov shutting the door in the playoffs. I only got to see the 3rd period of Saturday's 3-2 win over the Penguins, but saw the replay of his sprawling save on Crosby about 4000 times. Nice job, Varly!

Here's your inbox:

Do you believe Dukes is the Nationals' best player?
-- John J., Washington

Talent-wise, yes. Production-wise, it's Zimmerman. Dukes has been disappointing in the field so far, while Zimmerman is good across the board.

Do you think Milledge will ever play for the Nats again, or will he be traded. I would think Dukes is entrenched as the center fielder.
-- Dennis Walsh, Silver Spring, Md.

Forecast for Milledge's future: Partly cloudy with 100% chance of playing for the Nats. How Rizzo handles this situation might dictate getting the "acting" dropped from his title. Trading Milledge now would be a horrible mistake-his value is clearly at his lowest. There's no reason to trade away a 24 year old with a ton of talent when he's at a valley in terms of value.

If Daniel Cabrera continues to be shaky, do you think the front office would be willing to see if Collin Balester could do a better job?
-- Bryan A., Fairfield, Conn.

Another big question for Rizzo's future is how he handles this. I know the Lerners would hate to eat his $2.6 mil contract, but he's clearly never going to live up to his potential. Rizzo could try to hide him in the bullpen or send him to AAA to learn how to pitch correctly, but I think an outright release (or a trade, if somebody's dumb enough) are the most likely. I'm going to guess that we ride out Cabrera's inefficiency until Strasburg signs and takes his spot...just a gut guess.

In the wake of recent closer woes, can you shed some light on why the Nationals got rid of Steven Shell?
-- Cordell F., Washington

Shell was redonkulously lucky last year. He's a decent pitcher who I'm sure they would have loved to keep in AAA for depth, but he's not a vital member of our bullpen. He's simply just not that good.

It was reported the Nats have interest in Pedro Martinez. If so, they should go after him.
-- Dennis W. Silver Spring, Md.

You're preaching to the choir, dude. $5 mil is a little too much to pay for Pedro though, so when the price comes down they should make it happen.

I have been following the Nationals/Expos from the very beginning, and I like the young pitchers. I'm also confident that the Nationals will have 20-22 more wins this year than last. I know that sounds over the top, but I sincerely believe it.
-- Dan R., San Luis Obispo, Calif.

At the beginning of the year, I would say "hey, it can happen." 20-22 more wins would still only be 79-81 total, which would put us around/at .500. Possible, but after this atrocious start, I can confidently say 70 wins will be a success.

That's all I've got for the time being. Now I'm off to catch up on my 1000+ items on my Google Reader.

Thursday Inbox

Here's your latest inbox:

Leadoff is my main concern at this point. Truthfully, I would like to see Dukes lead off and see what kind of pressure he can put on starting pitchers. Speed and power on top could put a scare into the other teams. Any thoughts on this one?
-- Don M., Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island

It's a difficult position to put Dukes at the top. He has a great combination of OBP and speed, but can we handle losing his bat in the middle of the lineup or his baserunning gaffes?

I'd rather see a lineup like Guzman-Johnson-Zimmerman-Dunn-Dukes-Kearns/Willingham-Belliard/Hernandez-Flores.

I don't think Acta is the reason the Nationals are off to a slow start, but are there some people in the organization who think he is to blame?
-- Alex C., Montreal

He's not THE reason the Nats are off to such a bad start, but he is A reason. Manny still has a lot to prove to me to be honest-he hasn't locked in a spot for any future years as our manager.

I was pleasantly surprised to see outfielder Austin Kearns have a decent Spring Training, however, he seems to be back to his old unproductive self. Shouldn't the Nationals see more of Josh Willingham in the outfield and give Kearns the shakeup like Lastings Milledge got?
-- Frank W., Fairfax, Va.

Ummmm....he's got a bad batting average (.229) but a .386 OBP and .514 SLG are both awesome, especially when you factor in his plus defense. I'm not following you, Frank...bench the guy with the .900 OPS because he's not producing enough?

What's up with all these guys -- Ronnie Belliard, Cristian Guzman, Willie Harris and Anderson Hernandez -- pulling up lame while running the bases? I thought hiring a new strength and conditioning coach might have helped, but something's wrong here.
-- Maurice N., Fairfax Va.

A strength and conditioning coach means something, but not everything. The players still might not do their individual stretching right, or they still might not be in shape. Chances are, some of them didn't prepare themselves enough for the situation (I won't say ALL of them) and ended up hurting themselves.

Don't you think the Nationals made a mistake in not signing second baseman Orlando Hudson? He is apparently healthy and certainly hitting and fielding well. I think they blew it big time.
-- Peter R., Vancouver

Yes. I don't care if he failed the physical-they knew he was hurt. How does an injured player pass a physical? O-Dog is miles ahead of Belliard with the glove and ahead of Hernandez with the bat.

Roster Strategery

From NJ: your Opening Day Nationals

Pitching Rotation 
LHP John Lannan 
LHP Scott Olsen 
RHP Daniel Cabrera 
RHP Shairon Martis

These 4 all deserved to be here. No surprises or disgust here. Z-NN will be up when we need a 5th man in a few weeks.

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard (1B/2B/3B)
Alberto Gonzalez (2B/SS)
Cristian Guzman (SS)
Willie Harris (2B/3B/OF)
Nick Johnson (1B)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

I think the Nats did the right thing here as well when they sent down Casto and Cintron. Both will get another chance at some point during the year.

Bullpen 
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan 
LHP Mike Hinckley 
LHP Wil Ledezma 
RHP Saul Rivera 
RHP Steven Shell 
RHP Julian Tavarez

YUCK! This is poor bullpen management at it's best. 3 LHP is just stupid on all levels, even if Beimel isn't a LOOGY. Tavarez shouldn't have made the pen over Mock or Bergmann (or Colome, even), and one of Hinckley/Ledezma really had to go. Rizzo and Kasten get a F for the bullpen.

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

The front office failed here as well. They brought the best 5 OF they have to the big league squad, that's not the issue. Instead, the issue is that they didn't move a single one of them! I really can't believe they didn't deal off Willingham.

As for the Kearns/Dukes situation, I favor Manny's decision to start Kearns off under 1 condition-it's not permanent. When Dukes' bat gets up to speed, he starts. He's not ready yet, but needs to start when he is.

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

Carrying 3 catchers is stupid in almost every case, but this is just going to be an extended audition between Bard and Nieves until Hernandez comes back. Also, Flores will need time to adjust to ML pitching, as he missed much of ST, so 3 catchers isn't a terrible idea here.

Nats roster almost finalized

According to Ladson, Alex Cintron has accepted an assignment to AAA Syracuse. He also notes that Josh Bard and Wil Nieves will probably both make the team and Kory Casto will be waived today or tomorrow. That leaves the bullpen as the only place not yet decided. 

Chico was right that Bard and Nieves would stay and Cintron and Castro would go and predicts Tavarez, Shell, Hinckley and Bergmann will be the remaining 4 relievers (with Colome, Mock and Ledezma losing out). I think it should be Bergmann, Mock, Colome and Shell, but I think it will be Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Hinckley.

Bergmann has to be a lock now with a 0.00 ERA in 11 and 1/3 innings (although he has allowed 4 unearned runs). I'd have to think Mock's chances are pretty good as well, with a 2.42 ERA in 26 IP as a reliever last year and 3.94 in 16 ST innings this year, so he hasn't done anything to lose his spot. Shell is in the same boat, with a 2.16 ERA last year and a 4.09 in Spring Training. I'd like to see Colome make the team, despite my dislike of his "Human Rain Delay" tactics. He has allowed 1 run in 10 innings in ST and has an impressive 9:0 K:BB ratio (yes, that's right, Colome has not walked anyone in 10 straight innings!). Tavarez has simply sucked in his 2 games and probably needs more seasoning before he plays in the majors this year, so I don't see why he would stick with the big club (and waste another 40-man spot). I don't see why Hinckley would win a spot over Ledezma (although I don't think either should make the team). But there's my rant.

In Ladson's article, he also mentions a possible competition between Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns as the starting RF. While I love Elijah Dukes, I do think that Kearns has earned a job at least every other day somewhere-he's an outstanding fielder and will improve greatly with the bat (he was playing hurt last year, that's why his numbers were so terrible). While Dukes' numbers haven't been terrible in Spring Training (and not that it would matter anyways, because ST stats mean very little), his K rate is alarming-43% of his at-bats! He's being overmatched by pitchers (and Spring Training pitchers at that)...does that not scare anyone else? 

Ideally, I'd like to see Willingham traded and have the ratios go like this:

1B: Johnson-80% of starts, Dunn-20% of starts

LF: Dunn-70% of starts, Kearns-25% of starts, Harris-5% of starts

CF: Milledge-70% of starts, Dukes-15% of starts, Harris-15% of starts

RF: Dukes-60% of starts, Kearns-40% of starts

Giving Johnson starts in 4/5 games, Dunn starts in 9/10 games, Harris in 1/5 (plus some 2B/3B time), Kearns in a little more than 3/5, Milledge in 7/10 and Dukes in a little more than 7/10. We've got 5 good outfielders, we just need a time and place to use them.

Sunday Inbox

2 in 4 days, hooray! It's Ladson time.

Should the Nationals hold on to right-hander Shawn Hill? Will outfielder Elijah Dukes have a big year? Those are two of the many questions Nats fans want to know during Spring Training. Here are answers to some of those questions.

With Hill constantly getting hurt as a starter, wouldn't it be ideal for him to be moved to the bullpen? I hear he has great stuff, but his lack of endurance scares me. 
-- Rafael B., Miami

Yes. Yes, yes, yes, yes, YES. Or does moving Hill to the pen just make too much sense?

I'll keep saying it again and again. When are the Nationals going to wake up and smell the coffee concerning Hill? He is injured far too often. I think there are a couple of young pitchers in the organization that would do much better than him. 
-- Jorge T., Springfield, Va.

I'll meet you halfway. Hill is worth keeping around. It's worth taking a chance that he'll one day get healthy because when healthy, he's not just good, he's really good. But what the team needs to do is stop expecting him to be healthy, because he's not. Consider him Nick Johnson-enjoy his 1/4 of the season while it lasts.

If first basemen Chris Marrero and Nick Johnson continue to have good springs, would that affect how the Nats think about Johnson's future with the club? 
-- Brett L., Washington, D.C.

With his injury last year, Marrero is really nowhere near ML-ready. I can see Johnson being dealt, but instead of rushing Marrero to the bigs, Dunn or Willingham would shift to 1B.

Do you think the Nats will eat the salaries of Dmitri Young and Austin Kearns in an effort to keep the best players on the roster? I think the bench looks much better with Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard, Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina and Wil Nieves. 
-- Chris O., Ashland, Va.

Dmitri's not going to be on the bench, so to be honest that doesn't have any effect here. I wish people would actually give Kearns a chance instead of considering his 2008 season extreme and uncharacteristic suckitude  rather than caused by injury suckitude.

Don't you think they should keep Young and put him on the bench? I think he would be a great pinch-hitter. 
-- Michael B., Epsom, N.H.

They are keeping Young, but he isn't close to being healthy enough right now to be worth a roster shot.

As a season-ticket holder, I watched Dukes improve his hitting during the latter half of the season. He developed a keen eye for the strike zone and seldom swung at bad pitches. I believe he will draw a lot of walks and be one of the best hitters on the team this year. What is your take? 
-- Charles K., Va.

I like you, Charles K. Glad to see some good insight here as opposed to "I LIKE ______________ LET'S START HIM!!!" or "KEARNS SUCKS!!!!!1!!!"

Can we expect to see President Barack Obama throwing out the first pitch at the home opener? 
-- Michael L., Williamsburg, Va.

Don't expect it, but be pleasantly surprised if he does. He's a sports fan so I think he will throw out a home opener, but could you blame him for throwing it out for the White Sox, his favorite team?

Are the Nats interested in free agent Will Ohman? They need bullpen help, and he is a young lefty. 
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

"I see the Nationals making a trade to improve their bullpen."-Ladson

That's dangerous in my opinion. Ohman could be had for ~$1 mil. We would have to give up a prospect to get a lefty, so why not spring an extra $500k or so to get a player without having to give one up.

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Friday night randoms

More random links for you:

Here's the find of the evening-a Paulie Lo Duca card plaque I found at Dick's Sporting Goods. Yikes!

Biggest news of the night: prospect Jack McGeary is gonna play full time this year, according to NFA. Yay!

From Nats Journal:

-Elijah Dukes paid his ~$40k in overdue child support 3 minutes before the deadline (yes, 4:57 pm for a 5 pm deadline, folks). 

-It looks like Jordan Zimmermann is a favorite to earn a spot in the rotation during Spring Training. And Ross Detwiler perhaps by the end of the year? I'll believe it when I see it.

-And straight out of Chico's mouth/pen: "Bowden admitted that the Nationals would absolutely need to overpay for potential free agents." Not surprising.

Hondo could be returning. A nice Q&A session with Hondo here as well. Do it, Kasten.

The Nats have no interest in Fogg, but still have interest in Orlando Hudson and Adam Dunn. I wholeheartedly support going after either.

The Mets signed Rob MackowiaKKKKKKKKKKKKKK. Great move on Omar Minaya's part...NOT!