Two trades that I like

First off, the Nats dealt 2B Anderson Hernandez back to the Mets today for 2B prospect Greg Veloz. I like. Hernandez isn't doing anything, is never going to do anything, etc. While Veloz probably won't either, he at least has "tools," a scary word when used in Jim Bowden context, but not one you want to avoid. He's very fast and has a good enough glove to handle 2B in the bigs. If his contact and on base skills (and I use "skills" broadly), he could be mildly useful...best case scenario he turns into Emilio Bonifacio and worst case scenario he turns into Anderson Hernandez.

The other deal was for Daryle Ward and Norris Hopper. Both guys are organizational depth at this point, but a) the Nats didn't give up anyone, b) they're not blocking anyone (and its probably more beneficial for most of our guys' development to leave them where they are) and c) Daryle Ward is back! I loved Daryle in 2006 when he had a .958 OPS off the bench for the Nats. He hits righties hard and can play 1B when Dunn turns the circus music off.

Wednesday Evening Link Parade

Some interesting stuff for you tonight.

Bill Nye the Science Guy is a Nats fan! See the first poll at the bottom of the post! [DC Sports Bog] 

Dmitri Young is smelling a trade [Half Street Blues]

The Nats are going to start the season with a 4-man rotation and 14 hitters [Nationals.com]

Ladson speculates that the "extra" bench guy will be Kory Casto, Dmitri Young or Wily Mo Pena, but not a catcher. Also, Rule 5 draftee Terrell Young is "suffering" from right shoulder pain. Says he's fine now. Might we be stashing him for a while on the DL? [Ladson's Blog]

Anderson Hernandez pulled a hammy tonight, apparently pretty bad. See the second poll at the bottom of the post. [Nationals.com]

2008-09 Winter League Conclusions

Originally, I was going to merge this post with a Spring Training post, but instead decided to do them separately. Here are 6 guys that stuck out (or in two cases, struck out) to me:

Risers

IF Anderson Hernandez (.338/.390/.489)

Anderson has made obvious improvements lately, even though I rarely admit it. He'll still never armount to much of anything with the bat, but he's started doing something pretty valuable for a career .232 hitter: not swinging. His walk % at all levels in 2008 (7.4 % in AAA, 11% in ML and 8% in the Dominican Winter Leauge/Caribbean Series) was much better than at any point since 2004, the last time he broke 6% at any level. His K % is still higher than I want, but that improved as well. For Hernandez-as well as anyone else, really-you're just looking for a continuation of the progress made in the 2008 regular season.

IF Ronnie Belliard (.307/.378/.534)

During the regular season, Belliard was phenomenal between DL stints, with a .900 OPS. His season was cut short in early September, so all I wanted was some at-bats. He had just about 100 PA in his winter league and hit well, so it was a success.

OF Justin Maxwell (.220/.400/.455)

Maxwell was only a little unlucky in terms of BABIP and saw K numbers skyrocket, so the .220 batting average isn't encouraging. He was, however every bit as good in terms of walks as he was bad in terms of K's. With career minor league K and BB %'s of 26% and 11% respectively, his 29% K% and 22% BB% in Winter League ball don't look all that bad. And, he didn't get hurt!

IF Ian Desmond (.267/.364/.525)

Desmond's percentages improved as well. His 25% K% was significantly better than his 37% career average and his 14% BB% was a little bit better than his career minor league average of 12%. Hope that this year he can match that BB% rather than the 7.5% he's put up at AA so far in his career.

Fallers

C Jesus Flores (.247/.295/.412)

His lack of plate discpline is really quite alarming. He needs to walk more than 6% of the time everywhere, even if he's playing high schoolers.

OF Edgardo Baez (.238/.262/.288)

He isn't really much of a prospect anyways, but getting blown away by Puerto Rican Winter League pitchers isn't going to help that either. Seriously, a 34% K% and 4% BB% in a league where Ben Grezlovski put up a 3.20 ERA?

If you want to check out complete stats for Nats in Winter Leagues, click here.

A 3 post night! Sunday night inbox

Thanks to Ladson, we have even more material today!

Do you think Acta should be the Nationals' manager in 2010?
-- Sanjay H., Alexandria, Va.

To be honest, I don't know. Like Ladson says, Manny has never really had much to work with here. This year is his make or break year to prove whether he is a motivator or a manager.

Who is your starting outfield?
-- Byron G., Upper Marlboro, Md.

With this team, calling something a starting outfield would be pretty inaccurate. There are going to be injuries and platoons. I say on opening day, Johnson starts at 1B and the OF will be Dunn/Milledge/Dukes, but you can count on injuries at some point to Johnson and Dukes, which would leave it with Dunn at 1B with and OF of Willingham/Milledge/Kearns...but then Willingham can get hurt and you're stuck with Pena/Milledge/Kearns. See what I mean?

I am befuddled by your comment that Milledge is too "valuable" to trade. Maybe my memory is escaping me, but I remember the few key hits and numerous defensive/mental errors associated with his play. Why is he too valuable to trade?
-- Bob M., Alexandria, Va.

I've sorta joined the Milledge bandwagon this offseason. While he's not a great centerfielder, he does have immense offensive potential. He's only going to be 24 this year. Judging his trade value on his 2008 performance would be pretty dumb...something that Jim Bowden would do.

I never hear anything about Ronnie Belliard. What's going to happen with him this year? He had a pretty good year last year, but he doesn't seem to get much credit.
-- Bill V., Kill Devil Hills, N.C.

If I were Belliard, I would be pretty pissed off at the management. Last year he hit .287/.372/.473 and he's still the underdog for the starting job to a guy who hit worse in 479 AAA at bats last year (.203/.262/.307) than Cristian Guzman hit for the Nats in 2005 (.219/.260/.314).

I've heard that both Anderson Hernandez and Cristian Guzman could be candidates for the leadoff role. What about Milledge? He has speed and power.
-- William B., Silver Spring, Md.

If Hernandez makes the opening day starting lineup, I'll scream. If he's the leadoff hitter, forget anything I said about Manny earlier-he doesn't deserve to have a job anymore. The Nats lack any real semblance of a leadoff hitter right now, but Guzman's the best bet they have. I agree with Ladson, though, that Milledge might fit in well at #2, although I would probably prefer seeing Johnson there with a Guzman-Johnson-Zimmerman-Dunn-Dukes-Milledge-Flores-Belliard lineup.

What's Matt Chico's status? He was pretty good two seasons ago and now you never hear about him.
-- Richard G., Syracuse, N.Y.

Actually, he was pretty bad two seasons ago and worse last year (although you can attribute last year's failures to his injury). But I'll let Ladson take it from here: "Chico is slowly recovering from left elbow surgery and is not expected to compete in a Minor League game until mid-summer." Ladson doubts he'll be back in the bigs until 2010. I doubt he'll be back in the bigs at all.

I've been an Expos/Nationals fan since the beginning. I was wondering why Andre Dawson is not in the Hall of Fame. He was one of the best players in the National League during the 1980s.
-- Dennis D., Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

He should be, and he eventually will be.

And so they don't get buried, here are my other two posts from the night:
We interrupt the previously scheduled blog...
Why Shawn Hill should be a closer

5 Fearless Predictions for 2009

There's not a whole lot of introduction I'm looking to do for this. Some may be controversial and that's fine. Keep in mind that these are gut-based and not stats-based. Throwing stats at me in rebuttal will prove nothing, as these are PREDICTIONS and not facts.

1) Ryan Zimmerman will be the team MVP.

Dukes and Johnson will get hurt and Dunn and Milledge won't be quite as good.

2) The team's best pitcher will not have thrown a single pitch for the Nats organization in 2008.

It actually hurts me to say that. I am a HUGE John Lannan fan, but for some reason I always feel we're hanging on a thread with him. We can't expect Bally-Star or Zimmermann to have breakout rookie years (as nice as it would be). For some reason, I have high hopes for Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and even J.D. Martin.

3) Joel Hanrahan will not be the closer at the end of the year.

Ok, I may not believe in this one completely. It's done more to provoke thought-what if Hanrahan breaks down or is ineffective? Then we turn to Shawn Hill, the subject of a near-future post that I'm working on.

4) Jesus Flores will not have the breakout year with the bat many of us are expecting.

Flores may very well be my favorite National, but there are just too many holes in his swing that need to be corrected if we want him to go nuts. His BB/K numbers are terrible-29 BB to 126 K in his career-and his contact numbers aren't much better either.

5) Anderson Hernandez will make you yearn for the return of F-Lop.

I touched on this in last night's "Inbox" (I refuse to call it that without quotation marks...it's the mailbag!): too many of you are basing your opinions on Hernandez on his 81 AB trial last season (and his 236 at bats of Winter League ball). He has a track record: 87 bad ML at bats and a minor league track record of 3508 bad at bats. He is not a good hitter. Expect the worst and maybe you'll be pleasantly suprised...but that chance is 10% or lower.

I'm going to add to this list as time goes along. Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Guess what time it is?

Mailbag time!

You seem sold on John Lannan as a big part of the Nats' future. I feel that he is another Jamie Moyer. What is special about Lannan?
-- Steve L., New York

Lannan is special because, like Moyer, he does a lot with not a lot of stuff. He's remarkably consistent, with ERA's under 4.37 per every month in his career and had 21 QS in 2008. Unless he proves otherwise, he is a huge part of the future.

General manager Jim Bowden has relied heavily on former Reds players. Do you think he will acquire more Cincinnati talent this offseason?
-- Steve I., Bethesda, Md.

I'm going to refer back to what I said about 3 weeks ago when I posted up "some interesting scenarios":
Signing 1 former Red: Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Corey Patterson (goodness I hope not), Paul Bako, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion, Brett Tomko (99.9% chance of happening).

I can definitely see a Sean Casey, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion or Brett Tomko signing. Not that I support them, I can see them.

EDIT: Wanted to point out 2 things:
1: Steve I. (who asks the question) calls the Cincy-turned-Nats players "talent." FAIL
2: Hendo pointed out in the comments that I didn't comment on the following statement by Ladson: "There aren't that many former Reds who played regularly on the field. As far as the position players go, you have Jose Guillen, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Dmitri Young. Pitching-wise, you have Hector Carrasco and Ryan Wagner. That's not the entire Reds roster during Bowden's time in Cincinnati." I was going to save that for later (in class right now), but I guess someone didn't put on their patient pants today!

For every former Reds player Ladson names, there are a million more that were tried at some measure in the organizaiton. You've got Brandon Larson, Brandon Claussen, Tony Blanco, Jeffrey Hammonds, Phil Hiatt, Luis Pineda, Ed Yarnall, Michael Tucker, Felix Rodriguez, Jim Crowell, Chris Booker, Josh Hall, Chris Michalak, Ray King, C.J. Nitkowski, Michael Coleman, Carlos Barega...do I need to go on? That's 23 guys in just a little bit of research time. I'm pretty sure I could come up with two more to complete the roster.

EDIT 2: Of course, Steven over at FJB is on the ball, naming a bunch of former Reds I inexplicably forgot: Wily Mo Pena and Aaron Boone round out the 25-man roster, plus you have ex-Reds Barry Larkin, Jose Rijo and Bob Boone stinking up the management.

What is the possibility of Mark Teixeira ending up with the Nationals? What kind of options do you think they have?
-- Kristen L., Rockville, Md.

I'll refer back to the same post:

Signing 1 of the following: C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Brian Fuentes (.00000000000001% chance of happening)

If any of those 6 are signed, it will be Texiera, if that is enough of a silver lining.

To be honest, when Nicky J is healthy, he is almost as productive (134 OPS+ to Johnson's 125...at probably 25% of the price). Stick with Nick and a free agent (Sean Casey and his OBP might actually be a decent pick here) and you'll get a fine 1B combo.

What are the plans for Wily Mo Pena? Is he going to play every day in 2009, or will he be traded?
-- David M., Woodbridge, Conn.

Unless he is (miraculously) traded or breaks out in Spring Training, let's hope Wily Mo gets the 2005 Tony Blanco treatment. Except for the "keep Blanco and lose a SP" part.

Everyone is talking about Anderson Hernandez and Emilio Bonifacio at second, but neither of them has the experience that Ronnie Belliard has.
-- Dustin C., Halifax, Nova Scotia

I'll stick with my prediction from last week: Bonifacio does not start the 2009 season in the majors. I bet Belliard and Hernandez start in a platoon, with Hernandez facing most lefties and Belliard facing most righties. It would be nice to get a LH bat here (although Bonifacio is seemingly decent against righties).

With the Nationals needing some power from the left side, what about signing Jason Giambi?
-- Chris H., Fountain Hill, Pa.

Not a bad idea. He couldn't be worse defensively than Dmitri. He's a bum, but we could use the offense. Big question-would he accept a PH/backup role for a non-contender?

What are Nationals going to do at catcher? I'm sure Jesus Flores will be healthy for next season, but we saw some talent in Luke Montz. With a shot at more playing time, could Montz be the No. 1 catcher?
-- Justin R., Lafayette, La.

No offense, Justin, but didn't we learn in 2008 that not starting Jesus Flores is a mistake? Montz may be a #1 catcher eventually, but he didn't prove anything in AAA or the majors. This is Montz's make-or-break year in AAA.

Mailbag

The one thing I'll consistently do this offseason-answer the mailbag questions!

Who do you think will be the starting second baseman between Anderson Hernandez and Emilio Bonifacio in 2009?
-- Ray U., Shrewsbury, Mass.

No love for Belliard? Here's my fearless prediction: Bonifacio does not start the 2009 season in the majors.

Shouldn't Roger Bernadina be considered as an option for center field in 2009?
-- Luis H., San Juan, P.R.

No matter what Ladson says about Bernadina's 'swagger' his second time around, he's still not an improvement over Dukes (or Milledge for that matter). He, like Bonifacio, can still benefit from additional time in AAA and should start the season there (barring an excellent Spring Training out of either).

I get the impression you are not convinced Elijah Dukes is a solid citizen. He is one of our only hitting threats. I want his bat in the lineup next season.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I don't see how going one year without threatening someone's life makes you a solid citizen. He is still not a solid citizen, but he is a darn good ballplayer.

Why wasn't Larry Broadway called up last September? Does he have a future in the Majors?
-- Daniel C., Key West, Fla.

As Ladson said, Broadway doesn't hit home runs. Ladson's sure he'll be a major league player...I'm not so sure. First basemen who can hit .266/.352/.427 in AAA aren't hard to come across.

Why did the Nats send Ryan Langerhans to the Minor Leagues? He seemed to have so much to offer.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Because they can. While Langerhans is valuable in many ways, he still lacks major production with the bat (I say major because, while he does have good patience and power numbers, he still has huge holes in his swing and overall offensive game). His glove is valuable and he will be a National at some point this year...but he passed through waivers, so retrospectively, it was a good move.

Since the Nationals are looking for a veteran left-handed power hitter, what about signing Ken Griffey Jr.?
-- Nick K., McLean, Va.

Maybe as a coach, but Griffey is old, average offensively (.249/.353/.424 this year) and has lost a step in the outfield.

Is there anything to hang our hats on as far as going from worst to first in just one year? I realize this is speculation, but how likely is it that Washington will catch lightning in a bottle?
-- Brian Y., Takoma Park, Md.

No. Where we stand right now, we don't have the hitting, pitching or leadership to put up a winning record in 2009. Maybe with a few key free agents we can compete in 2010, but I'm going the pessimistic route and telling you not to get your hopes up.

I thought Boone was a good reserve. Could he still be with the Nationals for the 2009 season?
-- Megan, G., McLean, Va.

He could stick, but do we really want him back? .241/.299/.384 is pretty terrible. Even Larry Broadway could do that.

How long will it be until Ross Detwiler is in the starting rotation?
-- Andrew W., Alexandria, Va.

I can see the Nats pushing him up this September. Risky prediction, but it's just something I can see happening.

What has happened to Clint Everts?
-- Nick B., Houston

He, like 90% of high school pitchers drafted, flamed out. Watch out, Willems/Smoker/McGeary.

Are the Nationals waiting until after the World Series to interview coaching candidates?
-- Tom J., Reva, Va.

I'll let Ladson answer this one:

Oh, no. They have already contacted candidates such as former Mets manager Willie Randolph. Don Baylor could be a candidate. It's also assumed that Rick Eckstein will be the hitting coach. I also believe the Nationals will promote another coach from the Minor Leagues. Who that is, I don't know yet.

With the Padres shopping Jake Peavy, could the Nats become a serious contender to acquire him?
-- Brandon S., Easthampton, Mass.

Are you kidding? He would take up like 60% of the payroll! I'd love to see it happen (and it would help the team immensely), but it's not happening.

Hopefully Manny's just trying to light a fire under Bonifacio

Chico from the Post reports that there could be a position battle between Bonifacio and Anderson Hernandez next spring. I don't like it. I can understand the basic reasoning-Hernandez HAS outplayed Bonifacio lately. But it's a ridiculously small sample size. Sure, Hernandez is hitting .340/.417/.358 right now...in 53 at bats!! He hit .203/.262/.307 this year in AAA...in 479 at bats!! I say it's still Emilio's starting job to lose, but I can see the Nats continuing to spell him with Hernandez when we're facing lefties.

On a side note-I'd like to apologize for the lack of posts lately. I'm working to remove some malware from my computer. Some times the only process I'm running on my computer is anti-virus. Other times it's just too slow to do anything (that's why this post is not 100% developed...don't worry, I know). I'll continue to read and comment on everyone else's blogs, just don't expect a whole lot on my part for the next few days.

Friday thoughts

I can't watch Nats games anymore at school (unless they're on ESPN...I'll wait until you stop laughing), but I did catch highlights and the writeups of last night.

Why was Anderson Hernandez batting leadoff? I don't care that he's 5 for 9 in on the season so far or that he went 3 for 4 the other night. ANDERSON HERNANDEZ IS A NO-HIT SHORTSTOP! I think the 12 for 87 line in the majors before this year, the .264/.310/.354 career minor league line or the .203/.262/.307 line this year in AAA would tell you that. And, seriously, what does it tell Willie Harris when you move him to the #8 spot in a career year to make room for a guy who is a historically awful hitter to bat leadoff just becuase he had a 3 for 4 game.

Manny, I don't disagree with you most of the time, but what were you thinking? It's ANDERSON HERNANDEZ!

The Nats and Cubs start a 3-game series tonight. For those who don't know, I was raised on the Cubs and regularly sport a Ryne Sandberg jersey. During Cubs-Nats series, the team who needs to win the least always seems to wim the most. So the Nats will probably take at least 2 of 3 and the Nats will end up losing out on the #1 pick by 1 loss and the Cubs will lose the division by 1 game. Maybe I'm a pessimist in that sense.

In other news, I really enjoy the blog Kyle Tucker writes for the Virginian-Pilot concerning VT (based out of the Hampton Roads area). Here are some funny things to picture:

Nothing I can report from practice, since today was one of those off-limits workouts...I like to imagine on such days – when the gates are closed to all outside eyes – that Frank Beamer is cackling into his bullhorn, “Muhaha! Muuuuuuuhahahahaha!” while scheming plays like the Ed Wang end-around and the receiver screen to Ike Whitaker, who then throws into the backfield to Greg Boone, who then throws a bomb to Taco Thompson, who would’ve been lined up in the slot for this particular trickeration.

The fun thing is, I can totally see that happening.

Goodbye Ayala

Luis Ayala has been traded to the Mets for infielder Anderson Hernandez. As you can see by his Baseball-Reference.com profile, Hernandez is not a very good player, but Ayala is an expensive not-very-good-player, so the deal is addition by subtraction.

I'll be saying goodbye for now as well. I'm making the trip back to Blacksburg today and may or may not be able to make many updates between now and next week. So continue to read up on Nationals Fanboy Looser, Fire Jim Bowden and Nats Farm Authority while I am (possibly) gone.