Don't drink that cyanide just yet...

The Sox appear to be ducking out of the Teixeira race (for now at least), contrary to previous reports tonight. So chill out, blogosphere.

And P.S.-we dodged a bullet. Thanks, Astros!

Mailbag

The one thing I'll consistently do this offseason-answer the mailbag questions!

Who do you think will be the starting second baseman between Anderson Hernandez and Emilio Bonifacio in 2009?
-- Ray U., Shrewsbury, Mass.

No love for Belliard? Here's my fearless prediction: Bonifacio does not start the 2009 season in the majors.

Shouldn't Roger Bernadina be considered as an option for center field in 2009?
-- Luis H., San Juan, P.R.

No matter what Ladson says about Bernadina's 'swagger' his second time around, he's still not an improvement over Dukes (or Milledge for that matter). He, like Bonifacio, can still benefit from additional time in AAA and should start the season there (barring an excellent Spring Training out of either).

I get the impression you are not convinced Elijah Dukes is a solid citizen. He is one of our only hitting threats. I want his bat in the lineup next season.
-- Rich R., Slingerlands, N.Y.

I don't see how going one year without threatening someone's life makes you a solid citizen. He is still not a solid citizen, but he is a darn good ballplayer.

Why wasn't Larry Broadway called up last September? Does he have a future in the Majors?
-- Daniel C., Key West, Fla.

As Ladson said, Broadway doesn't hit home runs. Ladson's sure he'll be a major league player...I'm not so sure. First basemen who can hit .266/.352/.427 in AAA aren't hard to come across.

Why did the Nats send Ryan Langerhans to the Minor Leagues? He seemed to have so much to offer.
-- James W., Warrenton, Va.

Because they can. While Langerhans is valuable in many ways, he still lacks major production with the bat (I say major because, while he does have good patience and power numbers, he still has huge holes in his swing and overall offensive game). His glove is valuable and he will be a National at some point this year...but he passed through waivers, so retrospectively, it was a good move.

Since the Nationals are looking for a veteran left-handed power hitter, what about signing Ken Griffey Jr.?
-- Nick K., McLean, Va.

Maybe as a coach, but Griffey is old, average offensively (.249/.353/.424 this year) and has lost a step in the outfield.

Is there anything to hang our hats on as far as going from worst to first in just one year? I realize this is speculation, but how likely is it that Washington will catch lightning in a bottle?
-- Brian Y., Takoma Park, Md.

No. Where we stand right now, we don't have the hitting, pitching or leadership to put up a winning record in 2009. Maybe with a few key free agents we can compete in 2010, but I'm going the pessimistic route and telling you not to get your hopes up.

I thought Boone was a good reserve. Could he still be with the Nationals for the 2009 season?
-- Megan, G., McLean, Va.

He could stick, but do we really want him back? .241/.299/.384 is pretty terrible. Even Larry Broadway could do that.

How long will it be until Ross Detwiler is in the starting rotation?
-- Andrew W., Alexandria, Va.

I can see the Nats pushing him up this September. Risky prediction, but it's just something I can see happening.

What has happened to Clint Everts?
-- Nick B., Houston

He, like 90% of high school pitchers drafted, flamed out. Watch out, Willems/Smoker/McGeary.

Are the Nationals waiting until after the World Series to interview coaching candidates?
-- Tom J., Reva, Va.

I'll let Ladson answer this one:

Oh, no. They have already contacted candidates such as former Mets manager Willie Randolph. Don Baylor could be a candidate. It's also assumed that Rick Eckstein will be the hitting coach. I also believe the Nationals will promote another coach from the Minor Leagues. Who that is, I don't know yet.

With the Padres shopping Jake Peavy, could the Nats become a serious contender to acquire him?
-- Brandon S., Easthampton, Mass.

Are you kidding? He would take up like 60% of the payroll! I'd love to see it happen (and it would help the team immensely), but it's not happening.

Some interesting scenarios

Lots of good stuff today over at MLBTR.

In this link dump, Tim Dierkes notes that Odalis Perez wants to come back and pitch again for the Nats next year. His source, Pete McElroy of MASN also notes in the same article that Aaron Boon'e top choice is to come back to the Nationals.
Dierkes also mentions that Aaron Crow could be gone at the Royals' 12 pick next year (apparently the Royals like him). But who cares, the guy's a bum!

In a short post about A.J. Burnett, Dierkes says that in 2005, the Nats were the only team (besides the Blue Jays, of course) to offer Burnett a 5-year deal. Also mentioned is the fact that "Burnett's preference to be close to his Maryland home could be a factor." The Nats aren't listed as a potential suitor (while the AngelO's are), but I can see them being a dark-horse candidate for Burnett, Oliver Perez and even Ben Sheets. They probably won't get any of them, but I can definitely see them being in the top 3 bidders, losing out over dollars rather than years.

Last but not least, in Dierkes' chat today, he speculates the Nats might be in on Mike Hampton this offseason (presumably if Odalis leaves). A Hampton signing sounds the kind of move Bowden always makes. Not sure how much I like it, but Hampton was pretty good before his injuries (and he can hit, just like Odalis, Livan, etc...unlike Bergmann and Lannan!).

Here are some scenarios (all are pure speculation):
Signing 1 of the following: Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett (5% chance of happening)
Signing 1 of the following: Odalis Perez, Mike Hampton, Livan Hernandez, Sergio Mitre (50% chance of happening)
Signing 1 of the following: C.C. Sabathia, Mark Texiera, Francisco Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Brian Fuentes (.00000000000001% chance of happening)
Signing 1 former Red: Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Corey Patterson (goodness I hope not), Paul Bako, Ben Broussard, Juan Encarnacion, Brett Tomko (99.9% chance of happening)
Trading for 1 of the following: Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks), Nick Swisher (White Sox), Matt Holliday (Rockies), Jeremy Hermida (Marlins), various Marlins pitchers (5% chance of happening).
Trading for 1 of the following: Jake Peavy (Padres), J.J. Hardy (Brewers), Magglio Ordonez (Tigers) (.0000000000001% chance of happening)

What are your thoughts? (FYI, I think the chances of getting a Holliday or Sheets are less than an Oliver Perez or Mark Reynolds, I just felt like grouping them in the "higher chance" groups because they won't be the top players on the market, more likely a plan B for the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

Wednesday Night Nats Roundup

Mostly just links and a little blurb, since I'm tired.

Old news: WMP is out for the year, but should be back for Spring Training next year. Maybe his labrum/rotator cuff woes were to blame, as he "had a tough time getting around on fastballs because of the shoulder." I was skeptical when Guzman's career was supposed to be turned around with laser eye surgery/weight loss. This isn't the same thing, but until I see results, I'll continue to be skeptical.

Nats Journal injury updates:
Aaron Boone still has discomfort in his calf and will have an MRI tomorrow. We don't necessarily need Boone back yet, but it would be nice to have him so Zim doesn't have to start every day. The trade deadline doesn't matter, as he'll pass through waivers (if the Nats choose to trade him away, reducing their monopoly on Boones from 3 (before Bret retired) to 2 (now) to 1 (if Aaron is traded).
Acta says we'll probably see Shawn Hill again before the end of the year. Similar to SBF's sentiments on Nats320 about Zimmerman: if one of our guys with decent potential is hurt, shut them down. No sense making it worse in a season that is un-salvagable anyways.
Da Meat Hook will also be back by the end of the year. "Asked if Young was expected back by the end of the year, Acta said, 'Oh yeah. Not by any means are we shutting him down. No. I'm very positive we'll be seeing him over here again.'"
Chico and Ladson are both reporting that Milledge could return as early as the weekend. As long as he's ready, fine. If he's not 100%, just like with Hill/Zimmerman, it's simply not worth it. Injured groin muscles are not things you want to play on (no pun intended).

The Nats could non-tender Chad Cordero. It wouldn't be worth it to resign him for $5 mil if he's not going to pitch, and then hit FA after the year. Maybe we can get something done with an option for 2010 before the season ends. Otherwise we'll have to cut ties and hope he's still around on May 15 when we can sign him again. I want the Chief back. He's still only going to be 28 at the beginning of the 2010 season. He's worth keeping, just depends on the price.

Last but not least, Pete Orr has decided against playing in the Olympics, deciding rather to stick with the Nats. It probably would have been career suicide for Orr to go to the Olympics rather than sticking it out in Washington.

Answers to the mailbag

Here are my own answers to Bill Ladson's mailbag:

Is Aaron Boone going to get more playing time? He should.
-- Dean O., Winnipeg, MB.

Yes, but not for good reasons. As we all know, Johnson is out for a few more weeks, so Boone will spell young at 1B every once in a while. But now we hear that Zimmerman could miss more games so, unfortunately, Aaron Boone is going to be playing there. Not that Boone playing is a bad thing (as he's hitting very well), but I'd much rather see the face of the franchise manning the hot corner and batting 3rd. I'd say there's a 75% chance Boone gets shipped somewhere at the deadline a la Daryle Ward. San Francisco, perhaps?

It seems like after every game, there's an item about Lastings Milledge being careless or lackadaisical on the field. And all I hear from him are excuses. What is he still doing in center field?
-- Adam C., Atlanta, Ga.

I don't think he's being careless or lackadaisical. That would be Andruw Jones territory. Milledge simply is not very good at fielding the CF position at this point, as he misreads everything and ends up where the ball lands a second late, often letting up to let it fall. He's still in CF because we don't have any other options. Dukes could play there, but we can't play Pena in RF and Milledge's arm in RF isn't a good option either. When Kearns comes back (and if Dukes actually starts to hit), I can see Dukes becoming the CF and Milledge becoming the 4th OF (or being shipped to AAA to work on CF skills). I'm confident that Elijah Dukes is the team's long-term option in CF and Lastings Milledge will be a LF when it's all said and done.

Can we get some love for Tim Redding? What a warrior, but nobody talks about him. He's by far our best pitcher this year.
-- Scott C., Washington, DC

I've heard a lot of love for Redding about being the team's lone all-star pick (don't feel like searching for links, but I'm sure you've seen them anyways, including in Ladson's mailbag). I disagree with the premise that He is "by far our best pitcher this year," however.

John Lannan is almost as good, if not just as good, if not better than Redding this year. They have basically the same ERA (3.57 for Lannan, 3.59 for Redding...remember that 6 of the 7 runs Redding allowed here don't count against his ERA), similar K:BB ratios (2 for Lannan, 1.9 for Redding), similar ERA+ (118 for Lannan, 117 for Redding). Redding has a decent lead in WHIP (1.229 to Lannan's 1.397) but that could be easily attributed to a low BABIP (.228 to Lannan's .271). The biggest difference is W-L record, with Redding sitting at 6-3 to Lannan's 4-5. I'm not even going to get into it all, but look at each of their run support stats. Redding gets 4.6 runs a game, Lannan gets 3.1. Lannan has given up 2 runs or less in 60% of his starts, to Redding's 45%. Lannan has given up 3 runs or less in 70% of his starts, to Redding's 64%. I won't say Lannan is better, but to call Redding "by far our best pitcher this year" would not be accurate.

Acta and Washington management should be commended for their patience, but how much longer will it last?
-- Dean O., Winnipeg. MB

"As long as Acta is in the organization, the patience will be there." Agreed. If he didn't lose it over the blown "stolen base" call with Gabe Kapler in the 9th today, I don't see him losing it any time soon. His job isn't on the line and there are very low expectations, so he doesn't need to panic...he can afford to be patient.

I completely agree with Nationals' idea of building a strong farm system. However, the club needs to get somebody to make fans excited, and somebody who is proven. You can't keep getting guys hitting .100 with five RBIs in a month. They also can't keep bringing up young guys before they are ready. I think the Nationals must stop being stingy and at least sign one big-name free agent.
-- Adam H., Nazareth, Pa.

Who do you suggest they sign? You're a week late, bro, Piazza already retired! Who else...you want Bonds? Nobody wants Bonds for a reason. It's not the right time to suggest a big-name signing, but over the offseason I guess there are a few worth looking at: Teixeira, Furcal, Dunn, Sabathia, Perez, Sheets. These days you're almost better off developing your own young talent that may not be quite as good as these guys at their peaks rather than going 7 or 8 years on players, signing them to hundred million dollar deals that pay them almost $20 mil per year when they're past their prime at 38 or so. I hope they'll be in the running for one of those 6 guys this offseason, just to appease the fans. I'd take any of those guys on a 5 year deal.



One last note: BERGMANNIA CONTINUES!!!! Too bad the Nats' new guys (Sanches and Manning) couldn't hold a 2-0 lead and get Bergmann his second W of the year.

One more last note: Dukes has raised his batting average from .038 to .119 in the last 6 games. He's still behind Tim Redding, Matt Chico, Odalis Perez and Austin Kearns, but at least he's starting to defrost.

Okay, for real last note: Guzman has 5 HR this year, halfway to his career high of 10. BERGMANNIA+GUZMANIA=BERGUZMANIA!!!! Kinda like ManBearPig?