Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fighting for .500: Conclusions

To read all installments of "Fighting for .500", click here.

Over the last month or so, FJB, Hendo and Farid have gone over how the Nats can possibly go .500 this year. I'll try too, but with a different method: comparing the 2009 Nats to the 2005 Nats, who went 81-81.

Position Players:
2005: 13.9 WAR
2009: 23.32 WAR

Starting Pitchers:
2005: 19.2 WAR
2009: 9.9 WAR

Relief Pitchers:
2005: 12.3 WAR
2009: 3.1 WAR

2005: 45.4 WAR 
2009: 36.32 WAR

So there you have it. The 2009 Nationals do not stack up favorably to the 2005 Nats. We really need pitching.

Some things that could tilt this all in the Nats' favor:
Breakout years from Dukes, Milledge and/or Flores
Breakout years from Cabrera, ZNN, Hanrahan and Rivera
Johnson staying healthy
Olsen returning to rookie year form
Dealing an OF (Willingham?) for a decent SP
Holding on to Kearns as the 4th OF, as he's much more valuable than people think

.500 is still a possiblity, but a lot of things have to go perfectly in our favor and a lot of things simply can't happen.

1 comment:

  1. Sorry about Tech's loss to Baylor...those Baptists are pretty tenacious, huh? I should note here that I come from a looooooooooong line of Baylor Bears! Please don't forget Sx3 today...I'm doing a video today, which is quirky enough to get everyone's creative juices flowing!


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