Sifting through the long list of minor league free agents: NL East Edition (Part 2)

Here is part 2 of my minor league free agent post (part 1 here). The basics: Baseball America has published their annual list of minor league free agents. Looking through all of these guys is obviously a long process, so I will post these guys in chunks by their 2010 teams. Once I get through everyone, I will reorganize them by position in one big post. This is going to take a long time to complete. My goal is to have things done so by the time New Year's rolls around and players latch onto new teams in full force, fans will be able to come here for a one-stop shop on their new spring training invites and minor leaguers.

Note: Ages as of Opening Day 2011.
Florida Marlins (31)

SS Emilio Ontiveros (26 years old, no ML experience)

Ontiveros hit .193/.271/.233 in 80 games in high A ball this year as a 25 year old. With little speed, no power and average fielding at best, he'll be lucky to find a spot next year. His only saving grace could be his ability to play both middle infield positions, but that's about it.

FanGraphs, B-R

SS Tim Torres (27 years old, no ML experience)

I'm a little more intrigued in Torres than I probably should be. He's a switch-hitting infielder with a little bit of pop and speed and can take a walk. Either he's a late bloomer or he was just a 26 year old beating up on AA competition this year, but I wouldn't count out Torres' chances at showing up on a ML roster at some point in his future (although it would still probably be a few years away).

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Chris Aguila (32 years old, 149 games of ML experience)

Aguila bounced around in 2010, ending up with the organization that drafted him in the 3rd round in 1997 and allowed him 141 games in the majors at 0.6 wins below replacement (-0.6 WAR). His power, speed, BB and K rates were all pretty poor in 2010, and at 32 in February, his ML future is in doubt unless his minor league numbers improve. That being said, he'd still be a decent guy to have around in AAA as a 4th outfielder.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

OF Brett Carroll (28 years old, 173 games of ML experience)

Carroll isn't much with the bat (.255/.323/.463 in his minor league career and .205/.284/.325 in the Majors). He's got enough power and speed to homer twice in batting practice and steal on Matt LeCroy, but not much beyond that. His defense, on the other hand, is what keeps him around. In his short ML career, Carroll is 15.4 runs below replacement with his bat, but 17.1 runs above replacement with his glove. I'd like to see more CF experience, but whatever he's got is fine with Dayton Moore; Carroll has already signed with Kansas City, so cross him off your lists.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

OF Jason Delaney (28 years old, no ML experience)

It's hard out there for corner outfielders/1B types that show little power in the minors. Delaney can get on base (.369 career minor league OBP), but has sub-.400 SLG's over his career at the AA and AAA levels. He probably has one more year to try and prove himself; otherwise, he'll probably end up in an independent league or abroad.

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Jose Duarte (26 years old, no ML experience)

With 31 minor league free agents, the Marlins were bound to have a few interesting players. Duarte falls under the same category as Torres did; both have showed nice power and speed in the minors at levels they were old for. Duarte is a centerfielder, so he'll continue to get chances. If he can keep his BB rates in the 8-9 range, he should be able to keep moving up, but his time is running out.

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Vinny Rottino (30 years old, 18 games of ML experience)

Listing Rottino as an outfielder is a bit misleading; he has extensive minor league experience at catcher, 1B and 3B in addition to working in the outfield. He amazingly put up his highest SB total of his career in 2010, stealing 23 bases in 25 tries. Rottino has decent all-around talent, with nice speed and doubles power, good on-base skills and the ability to play multiple positions, but he doesn't do anything all that well and has put up these numbers as a 30 year old in AAA. I'd sure rather have him than Wil Nieves, though.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

OF Lorenzo Scott (29 years old, no ML experience)

Scott is a decent base-stealer with a nice walk rate, but he has a career K% right around 30%. If speed is your game, I'd say it's pretty important to have the ability to put the ball in play more than 70% of the time. You can do a lot worse with a roster spot for your AA or AAA team, though, so Scott shouldn't have a huge problem finding a team.

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Brandon Tripp (25 years old, no ML experience)

I am very interested in Brandon Tripp. He's one of the younger guys we've seen on the list so far that still has a chance to be a ML contributor in my opinion. He's got average or better tools across the board but struggles with strikeouts. His K% has dropped from the 30-33% range down to the 25-28% range since he switched from the Orioles organization to the Marlins, but I'd like to see it drop further than that still.

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Greg Burns (24 years old, no ML experience)

Young and toolsy outfielders leaving the Marlins organization seems to be a trend this offseason, and Burns is no exception. He's got speed and can field fairly well, but the dude just can't hit well enough to keep moving up. At a young 24, Burns has room for improvement, but he has a ton to improve on. I'm not going to hold my breath for this one.

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Jeff Corsaletti (28 years old, no ML experience)

Need a decent 4th outfielder? Look no further. Corsaletti walks about as much as he strikes out, puts the ball in play and has a little speed and gap power. He can play all 3 OF positions, although his experience in CF and RF are a little limited compared to what you'd like to see. I would be very happy to see the Nats shoot Mr. Corsaletti an offer with a Spring Training invite and some playing time in September. He's not ever going to be a full-time starter, but Matt Murton-types have value, too*.

FanGraphs, B-R

*but apparently not according to ML GM's

New York Mets (24)
RHP Yhency Brazoban (30 years old, 115 innings of ML experience)

Remember when Yhency Brazoban used to be good? Yeah, he was never really that good. In his "good" seasons, he was lucky with a very low BABIP and HR/FB rate as well as a very high LOB rate. He always had too many walks and not enough strikeouts to make up for them. He threw fairly well in AAA for the Mets and in Mexico in 2010, but his walk rate still lies pretty close to 4, even against inferior competitions. He'll keep getting ST invites based on name value and his number of strikeouts, but I doubt we'll be seeing much more of Yhency Brazoban in the Majors in the near or far future.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Brian Bruney (29 years old, 239 innings of ML experience)

I can't think of many players I enjoyed watching less than Bruney. He pitches slowly (24.3 seconds/pitch this year, close to the 5 slowest with the league average around 21.5 seconds/pitch). He walks a lot of batters, often in situations where you don't want to walk a lot of batters. His 2010 season was brutal, but he'll continue to get shots at the Majors, or at least ST invites. During this Thanksgiving, I am thankful that Bruney won't be a National in 2011.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Chad Cordero (29 years old, 330 and 1/3 innings of ML experience)

I'm torn about Cordero's 2010 season. His ML numbers weren't great (although it was a very small sample size). His minor league numbers, on the other hand, were pretty good (3.03 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9). I'm not sure if it's the fact that Cordero was my favorite National, but I think he might be mostly recovered from his shoulder issues. I'd love for the Nats to bring him back with a ST invite since Bowden is gone, but I would understand if he wants to move along due to his harsh exit.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Jack Egbert (27 years old, 2 and 2/3 innings of ML experience)

From what I've read (nothing official), Egbert had Tommy John surgery in April, which explains why he did not pitch in 2010. He tore through the lower levels of the White Sox organization, never posting an ERA higher than 3.38 in AA and below. His 2008 rate stats in AAA were decent, but they dropped off a lot in 2009. I'm wondering if it had to do with an arm injury, but that's something we'll see when he returns at whatever capacity in 2011-12.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Johan Figuereo (25 years old, no ML experience)

I'm not sure why the Nats dropped Figuereo after his 2009 season (2.92 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9). I'm not sure why the Mets dropped him after his 2010 season (2.84 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 10.2 K/9). Sure, his walk rates suck, but he's only been a pitcher since 2008. If I were either team, I would have kept him around for at least another year just to see if he would progress any more. His chance at bottoming out are much, much higher than his chances of getting somewhere, but when you have a guy with a live arm and not a whole lot of pitching experience, you never really know what you're gonna get.

FanGraphs, B-R

RHP Carlos Muniz (30 years old, 25 and 2/3 innings of ML experience)

Muniz has really fallen apart the last 2 years in the minors. With rising BB rates and falling K rates, Muniz probably has one more year in AAA to make a statement if he wants a return trip to the Majors.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

Sifting through the long list of minor league free agents: NL East Edition (Part 1)

It is Christmas morning/week/month here in Blacksburg: Baseball America has published their annual list of minor league free agents! There are 533 players listed this year and I can promise you that I will look at each and every one of their Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference pages. Looking through all of these guys is obviously a long process, so I will post these guys in chunks by their 2010 teams. Once I get through everyone, I will reorganize them by position in one big post.

Notes: Ages as of Opening Day 2011.

P.S. This is going to take a long time to complete. My goal is to have things done so by the time New Year's rolls around and players latch onto new teams in full force, fans will be able to come here for a one-stop shop on their new spring training invites and minor leaguers.

Atlanta Braves (10)

RHP James Parr (25 years old, 36 and 1/3 IP of ML experience)

Parr, a Braves 4th rounder back in 2004, has had two cup-of-coffee ML stints in 2008 and '09. He threw 6 shutout innings against the Nationals in his ML debut, but had little success after that, with a 5.20 ERA and 4.71 FIP in his short career. He's a decent strikeout guy (7.0 K/9 in his minor league career and 6.4 in the majors) but he needs to keep his walk totals down if he wants to get back to the majors. He's still young enough to get back to the majors, but 2011 will be a bounceback year, as he only had 9 starts in AAA due to injury.

FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference (Majors), Baseball-Reference (minors)

LHP Mariano Gomez (28 years old, no ML experience)

While Gomez has put up pretty good conventional numbers over the last 3 years in AAA with ERA's of 2.76, 1.99 and 2.89, respectively, his peripherals likely are the reason he has not reached the bigs. His FIP's have ranged from 3.43 to 4.11 to 3.78 over the last 3 years, and his career K:BB ratio is 1.95 (and 1.58 in 3 seasons of AAA). Gomez is a big guy at 6'6", 240 lbs, but his hope of being the second Honduran to pitch in the major leagues continues to fade.

FanGraphs, B-R

C Orlando Mercado (26 years old, no ML experience)

Orlando Mercado had an illustrious career as a backup catcher from 1982-1990, hitting .199/.259/.281 over about 600 at-bats. His son Orlando, a 2003 6th round pick, has not made it to the majors yet. He still looks to be better than pops, though, with solid defense and on-base skills. The younger Merdado could be a useful piece with the ability to fill in at the ML level, but he needs to prove he can handle AAA first.

FanGraphs, B-R

C Clint Sammons (27 years old, 31 games of ML experience)

Sammons hasn't done much in the minors (.243/.314/.347) or the majors (.176/.243/.235) and isn't getting any younger. He'll sign with a team to be their AAA backup or platoon guy, but barring a major improvement this year, his 3 ML stints are all he's going to get.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

2B Joe Thurston (31 years old, 183 games of ML experience)

Joe Thurston is not a good Major League player. He's got speed, but doesn't steal bases well. He can play a lot of positions at or below average. For a lefthanded batter, he hits righthanded pitchers very poorly. He draws a fair number of walks, but strikes out way too much. That being said, Joe Thurston is a good minor league player. With a .293/.355/.420 career minor league triple slash and the ability to play pretty much anywhere on the field, he is the perfect utility guy to have on your AAA team. He won't embarrass you if you call him up to your ML squad, but he won't exactly help you win games, either.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

3B Christian Colonel (29 years old, no ML experience)

At different points of his career, Colonel has put up numbers that suggest he has a broad range of skills; he stole 35 bases in 2004, put up 64 extra base hits in 2007 and has hit over .300 three different times in his career. Colonel's problem is that his speed and power have diminished greatly over the years without any other tools getting much better. His ability to play the infield and outfield corners can be useful for a AA or AAA squad, but Colonel's chances of playing Major League Baseball are looking slim at this point.

FanGraphs, B-R

3B Eric Duncan (26 years old, no ML experience)

The 2003 first round pick hasn't figured out AAA yet. He's still young enough to keep getting chances thanks to his 1st round pick tag, but corner infielders who can't hit AAA pitching (and can barely hit AA pitching) aren't too valuable.

FanGraphs, B-R

3B Wes Timmons (31 years old, no ML experience)

Poor Wes Timmons. With decent speed and great on-base skills, you think the guy would have gotten a shot by now. His problem to this point is that he has very little power and was previously limited to 1B/3B action. He plays a little bit of 2B; playing it well could be his ticket to a successful career in Japan. He's not quite a Rick Short-type of player, but he has a few valuable skills that could help an AAA team or an ML one in a call-up stint.

FanGraphs, B-R

SS Luis Bolivar (30 years old, no ML experience)

Bolivar is your prototypical AAAA shortstop. He's quick, can play multiple positions and can't hit worth a dime. He'll sign to someone's AAA team and serve as a utility guy, but I doubt we'll be seeing him in the Majors unless he makes some big strides this year. He threw a scoreless inning with a strikeout in 2009, so maybe he should try pitching. It's never too late to do that, right Matt Bush?

FanGraphs, B-R

OF Mike Daniel (26 years old, no ML experience)

Daniel showed a little bit of speed and power in 2007 with a fancy-looking .294/.362/.458 triple slash in A and high A ball. I was instantly a fan and though he would make a nice 4th outfielder for the Nats. Unfortunately, his career never progressed much past 2007 and he's stuck between being a good AA player and a mediocre AAA player. Daniel is still young and toolsy enough to keep getting calls, but he needs to improve his hitting if he wants to reach the majors as a 4th/5th OF, pinch-runner type.

FanGraphs, B-R

Florida Marlins (31)
RHP Natividad Dilone (28 years old, no ML experience)

Natividad has a cool name and a 3.80 career ERA, but that's about it. He's a 28 year old who has never graduated high A ball. He can strike guys out, but only when he can figure out where the ball is going (and with a career BB/9 just under 5, we can tell that it doesn't happen too much). Keep moving, folks.

FanGraphs, B-R

RHP Jon Fulton (27 years old, no ML experience)

Fulton was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft out of high school as an infielder. He couldn't hack it as a hitter and switched to pitching in 2008. His first two seasons as a pitcher went well, posting ERA's of 3.04 and 2.42 and FIP's of 2.65 and 2.71 with tons of strikeouts and tons of walks. His third year, 2010, did not go so well, with a declining K rate and poor overall numbers. 2011 is a very important year if Fulton wants to make it; while he has the ability to get guys out, he needs to transform it into a habit of getting guys out, as he can only be a "project" player for so long.

FanGraphs, B-R

RHP Brian Lawrence (34 years old, 963 IP of ML experience)

I got really excited when the Nats traded Vinny Castilla for Lawrence after the 2005 season. Finally, a starter who can eat innings without getting bombed! Turns out he had a torn labrum and rotator cuff, so his stint in DC effectively never happened. Lawrence is finally looking like the pitcher he was before his injury; his innings total is building back up, his walks are staying down and his strikeouts are starting to rise back into the 6-7 range rather than the 4-5 range. Lawrence could be a real steal out of these minor league free agents; I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a team out of Spring Training.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Tom Mastny (30 years old, 94 IP of ML experience)

If Mastny never pitches another inning in the Majors, he'll still be in the record books; Mastny is the first Indonesian-born player in ML history. I'm sure he'd much rather be in the record books for being an awesome pitcher, but I guess you take what you can get. Mastny's career ML ERA is 6.13, and although his FIP at 4.91 suggests he was unlucky, he still wasn't that good. He pitched decently in AAA this year and will surely keep getting AAA opportunities, but his chances of being a significant ML contributor are pretty low at this point.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

RHP Matt Peterson (29 years old, no ML experience)

As another former high draft pick (2nd round-2000 by NYM), Matt Peterson saw his numbers plummet from pretty good with the Mets to awful with the Pirates after his mid-season 2004 trade. He proceeded to move to the bullpen, where he consistently put up decent (albeit generally overachieving) numbers. Peterson has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and his walk totals are pretty lackluster. Generally, I see guys get converted to relief work, put up nice ERA's in AAA and see bright futures for them. Peterson still has a chance to break out at an ML level, but I don't expect it to happen based on his peripherals.

FanGraphs, B-R

RHP Nic Ungs (31 years old, no ML experience)

Question: If a guy who is great in AAA but can't quite hack the Majors is called an "AAAA" player, what do you call a guy who is great in AA but can't quite hack AAA? Answer: Nic Ungs. Ungs has pretty good career numbers as a whole, generally keeping his BB/9 close to 2 and his K/9 over 6...that is, until he pitches in AAA, where they are closer to 3 and 5, respectively. His chances at ML success are slim unless the Marlins, who he has spent all but one year of career with, decide to throw him a bone with a September call-up. Ungs, if nothing else, has a pretty cool name.

FanGraphs, B-R

RHP Tim Wood (28 years old, 50 IP of ML experience)

Wood was decent in 2009, posting a 2.95 FIP in AAA and 4.31 in the majors. He regressed in 2010, though, to a 6.06 FIP in AAA and 4.92 in the bigs. He doesn't strike out nearly enough guys (7.4 K/9 in his minors career, 4.7 in ML) to justify his high walk rates (3.8 BB/9 in his minors career, 4.5 in ML). He might get some more ML opportunities, but I wouldn't go expecting another 2.82 ERA like he had in 22 and 1/3 innings in 2009.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

LHP Jeff Gogal (28 years old, no ML experience)

Gogal might have turned a corner in 2010. He finally kept his walks low (2.4 BB/9) and strikeouts high (8.3 K/9). Whether or not he keeps it up in 2011 is a different story, but he still needs to show he can handle AAA before he sniffs the Majors.

FanGraphs, B-R

LHP James Houser (26 years old, 1.1 innings of ML experience)

I really hope Houser gets another shot at the majors; a 20.25 career ERA is just sad. The former 2nd round pick (TB, 2003) has put up decent numbers in AA and below but lackluster ones in AAA. He's still young enough (and a lefty), so he'll get plenty of opportunities, but he still is a while away from being a ML contributor.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

LHP Wes Whisler (27 years old, 1.1 innings of ML experience)

Whisler did a little bit better in his 1.1 ML innings, with a 13.50 ERA. Okay, not really. The White Sox' 2004 second round pick has never been a control guy or a strikeout guy, and I don't expect him to be an ML contributor unless he becomes one or the other.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

C John Otness (29 years old, no ML experience)

Otness has decent on-base numbers in his minor league career, but has only played 8 games in AAA. Looks like an organizational depth guy at this point, but with 1B/3B/OF experience, he could be a nice AA/AAA piece for a team looking for a vet.

FanGraphs, B-R

C Neil Wilson (27 years old, no ML experience)

Poor defensive catcher with poor on-base skills and a little pop. Wilson will likely serve as a backup catcher for somebody's AAA squad.

FanGraphs, B-R

1B Mark Saccomanno (30 years old, 10 games of ML experience)

Saccomanno is an AAAA slugger who can routinely put up 20 homers with a below average eye and a bunch of K's. He had a down year in 2010 but will likely be back to portraying the AAA version of Adam Dunn next year.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

2B Wes Long (28 years old, no ML experience)

Long spent three years in the A's organization, never progressing above A ball. After three more years in independent leagues, he resurfaced in 2010 only to fail to progress above A ball again (at the age of 28, no less). He's got speed and the ability to play a handful of positions to his credit, but not a whole lot else.

FanGraphs, B-R

2B Danny Richar (27 years old, 79 games of ML experience)

It's refreshing to see a familiar face on the list every once in a while. Richar was involved in the Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox trade back in 2008 and hasn't done a whole lot since. Lefthanded-hitting middle infielders with a little power are definitely not in great abundance, making it impressive that Richar has kept himself out of the Majors like he has. His minor league numbers point to averageness, but he hasn't translated them to any ML mediocrity. Because of his handedness and tools, he'll keep getting calls, but he needs to make a move this year if he wants to even be a Miguel Cairo-type.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

2B Rigoberto Silverio (24 years old, no ML experience)

Silverio has yet to progress past A ball and his numbers don't suggest he has any special tools. Keep moving, nothing to see here.

FanGraphs, B-R

3B Lee Mitchell (28 years old, no ML experience)

Mitchell has gotten a shot at AAA three years in a row and has failed to do anything with it. His average power and on-base abilities fail to make up for his massive strikeout totals. Mitchell is another one of those guys who can play well in AA but can't hack AAA.

FanGraphs, B-R

SS Gookie Dawkins (31 years old, 55 games of ML experience)

Reds. Dodgers. Royals. Cubs. Tigers. Pirates. Mariners. Phillies. Royals (again). White Sox. Marlins. Dawkins has played for 1/3 of the organizations in the league and will likely continue to fight until he can make it back to the bigs, where he last played in 2003. The one-top prospect's 2010 numbers in AAA weren't bad at all (.268/.332/.479), but his chances of making it back to the Majors in any significant role are pretty slim.

FanGraphs, B-R (Majors), B-R (minors)

SS Javier Guzman (28 years old, no ML experience)

Guzman is lucky that we've already discussed Wes Long on this list; otherwise, his failure to figure out AA at the age of 28 would be even more embarrassing. Guzman can't hit for power, field, or get on base, and his speed and contact has faded since his first few years in the minors. The end of the road could be near for Javier.

FanGraphs, B-R

SS Ryan Klosterman (28 years old, no ML experience)

Klosterman is yet another name on this list that has little success above AA. He used to have decent power and speed, but it looks like those tools have faded. His ability to play 2B, 3B and SS combined with a decent batters eye will keep getting him opportunities, but even utility guys that can get on base have an expiration date.

FanGraphs, B-R

The Who's Who of Minor League Free Agent Catchers

Here is the first part of your list of minor league free agent hitters. Catch the pitchers list here.

CATCHERS (ages as of April 1, 2010)

Robby Hammock (R/R, 32 years old): Career major league line of .255/.313/.409, but hasn't surpassed a .300 OBP at any level since 2007. Career CS% of 30%. Can play corner infield and outfield positions. Caught Randy Johnson's perfect game.

Orlando Mercado, Jr. (R/R, 25 years old): Zero power, but awesome plate discipline. More BB's than K's every year since 2003 (when he was 18 years old and in rookie ball). Supposedly a good defensive catcher but possesses a below average arm. Son of former ML catcher Orlando Mercado, Sr.

J.R. House (R/R, 30 years old): Career AA line: .290/.351/.437. Career AAA line: .293/.352/.458. Only 63 PA in the majors. Can also play 1B/3B. Despite defensive question marks behind the plate, I'm surprised nobody has given him a real chance.

Vance Wilson (R/R, 37 years old): It would have been easy to tell him to hang up the spikes after missing almost all of 2007 and 2008 to Tommy John surgeries (yes, two of them), but he rebounded well in 2009 and posted his highest isolated slugging at any level since the late 90s (albeit in AA). Maybe he's got another year or two left in him.

J.D. Closser (S/R, 30 years old): Good batting peripherals, but a pretty bad defensive catcher. Think of him as a mid-2000s Matt LeCroy without the ML track record.

Chris Stewart (R/R, 28 years old): Similar to Mercado, Stewart has good on-base skills but non-existent power. With good defense, Stewart will continue to stick in AAA for some time and will probably get a decent chance of being a ML backup at some point.

Brandon Yarbrough (L/R, 25 years old): Lots of walks, lots of strikeouts, a BABIP-inflated batting average and below average power. But since he's a lefthanded hitter and has thrown out 35% and 39% of would-be basestealers in the last two years, he's worth a chance.

Kyle Phillips (L/R, 25 years old): Consistent .300 hitter in the minors with BB rates between 7 and 9%. FanGraphs calls his defense "questionable" but I think he can make it as at least a ML backup.

Luke Montz (R/R, 26 years old): What a difference a year makes. Went from an awesome 2008 season to not being able to break a .190 batting average in 2009. A .200 BABIP will do that to you, though. I'm guessing he'll bounce back to a .250/.350/.410ish line in 2010 for somebody in AAA.

Hopefully the infield and outfield lists will be done soon! Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving!

The Who's Who of Minor League Free Agent Pitchers

The one thing I love most in blogging: lists. It gives me great joy to share the best list of the year with you today: Baseball America's list of minor league free agents.

Without further ado, here are some interesting names (in no particular order) in the minor league free agent pitching market (ages as of April 1, 2010...I'm sure I've gotten some wrong, so post corrections in the comments):

LHP Jon Coutlangus (29 years old): Very unlucky in 2009 for the Diamondbacks organization, was useful in 2007 for the Reds. Only pitched 5 and 2/3 innings total in 2008, so I'm guessing he had some sort of surgery (although I couldn't find online confirmation). His inability to keep the walks down makes him no better than an average option as a LOOGY.

RHP Scott Dohmann (32 years old): He's good when he's lucky, and he's not good when he's not lucky. He was decent for the Rays in 2007, but has been shaky in both the minors and majors since then. Not a bad AAA filler, but not somebody you want to count on coming out of the major league bullpen.

RHP Bobby Korecky (30 years old): Impressive minor league numbers throughout his career, but always seems to forget how to pitch when he reaches the majors. But he's pitched very, very well in 2008 and 09 in AAA, so he deserves a shot in Spring Training.

LHP Mariano Gomez (27 years old): Doesn't have particularly impressive rate stats, but does have an impressive record of getting outs and keeping runs off of the board. Without hit and miss stuff (even in AAA), I can't guarantee success in the Majors, but he should get a Spring Training chance for a team looking for a LOOGY.

RHP Lance Niekro (31 years old): Before you ask, you already know. Yes, he was a 1B and yes, he converted to a knuckleballer like his father and uncle threw. He wasn't very good in rookie ball for the Braves organization this year, but what else could be expected out of someone who probably hasn't pitched in a decade? Stick him on your GCL team and the worst case scenario is he turns into a mentor for your recent high school draft picks.

RHP Ben Davis (33 years old): Also attempting to recreate his career as a knuckleballer after a so-so journey as a backup catcher. Better low-minors stats than Niekro, but we're talking very small sample sizes. Worth a shot in GCL as well.

LHP Casey Fossum (32 years old): Sure, his ML experiences have been pretty bad, but he pitched pretty well in 2008 and 2009. I would be surprised if he didn't end up in somebody's camp in Florida or Arizona come spring.

RHP Greg Atencio (28 years old): Let me know when guys with double digit K/9 rates and respectable BB/9 rates stop getting offers. Until then, I'll invite Atencio to Spring Training and have him serve as a setup man in AAA in the meantime.

LHP Alex Smit (24 years old): He's young and he's pitched fairly well since joining the Reds organization in 2007 (albeit at lower levels). Unlike Shairon Martis and Andruw Jones, he's Dutch...as in "from the Netherlands" Dutch.

RHP Scott Chiasson (32 years old): He's bounced around a whole lot, but has put up very good numbers in Mexico for the last two years as well as in AAA for the Reds and Orioles organizations for the last 4 years. He probably won't stick, but he could be a useful arm for AAA/emergencies.

RHP David Pauley (26 years old): Could be the J.D. Martin of the 2009-10 minor league FA class. Has generally put up good numbers in the higher levels but has been knocked around in 9 career ML games. Young enough to be able to make a difference at some point, even though his ceiling is a 5th starter/long relief type.

RHP Jarod Plummer (26 years old): Although he had uncharacteristically high walk numbers this year, he is usually known for his great control. He has put up good-but-not-great minor league numbers, but like Pauley, is young enough to be worth a longer look.

LHP Derrick Loop (26 years old): Ripped apart high A ball this year, but as a 25 year old. Push him up to AA and then AAA quickly and see if his rate stats stick.

RHP Dylan Axelrod (24 years old): Still young, and impressive minor league track record through the 2008 season. Rate stats really fell off in 2009, however, and he still hasn't thrown a pitch above high A ball.

RHP Fernando Hernandez (25 years old): Taken in the Rule 5 draft before the 2008 season by the A's, but didn't stick. Had a breakout year in 2009, but must keep the walks down to make it in the majors.

RHP Ryan Speier (30 years old): Sure, I have a soft spot for Speier because he went to my high school. But the fact of the matter is: he threw 99 and 1/3 quality innings in the majors for the Rockies since 2005 (3.99 ERA, 3.96 FIP). His K and BB numbers might not wow you, but he gets outs with his submarine pitching motion.

LHP Ryan Ketchner (27 years old): Ketchner's control has been very good over the last 2 years (2.34 BB/9 in that span, including a 1.32 BB/9 rate in 2009). Because of this improvement, I'm willing to overlook his general mediocrity and see if he can convert this newfound control into real success in 2010.

RHP Jason Waddell (28 years old): After experimenting with unusually high walk rates in 2008, Waddell settled down in 2009. Since 2006, he has a 9.21 K/9 and a 3.37 BB/9 in A+, AA, AAA and ML. Take out 2008 and he had a 8.91 K/9 and a 2.59 BB/9. I'm cool with either set of numbers.

RHP Jonathon Fulton (26 years old): The converted third baseman put up very respectable numbers in his first two years of professional pitching in 2008 and 09, with good ERA, FIP and K numbers but (as expected), shaky BB stats. At 26 years old, he really needs to be pushed to higher levels quickly if he wants to be a major league player.

RHP Clay Hensley (30 years old): He's a depth guy, someone you don't mind having around in case of injury. He is not as good as his 2005 and 06 numbers for the Padres indicated, but he's better than Levale Speigner.

RHP Brian Lawrence (33 years old): Time might be running out for Lawrence, but he looks to be back to his old tricks in AAA, with a K/9 rate hovering near 6 and a BB/9 rate just over 2. Another depth guy that could turn out to be a pleasant surprise.

RHP Kasey Olenberger (32 years old): Normally I wouldn't look twice at a guy like Olenberger, but he looks to be remade as a reliever. In his first year as a full-time reliever, Olenberger put up a 1.10 ERA, a 2.6 BB/9 and a 8.8 K/9. I wouldn't mind seeing him get more reps as a AAA reliever and then considering him for an injury replacement or September callup.

RHP Casey Daigle (28 years old): For some reason, I feel like Daigle has been around forever. Nonetheless, he looked good out of the bullpen in 2009 (and in 2008 as well) and can throw a lot of innings. If he can bring his walks down, he can be a ML reliever.

RHP Abraham Gonzalez (23 years old): A lot of 22 year olds can strike out over 10 guys per 9 innings in rookie ball, but not so many can do so while only walking a little more than 2 guys per 9. While the sample size is pretty small, somebody will sign him.

LHP Andy Van Hekken (30 years old): Doesn't walk anybody and puts up decent stats otherwise. Sign me up!

LHP Heath Phillips (28 years old): He's nothing special anymore, but he is a solid LHP who can help out in AAA or the majors if needed.

RHP Kendy Batista (28 years old): Has put up good numbers the last few years but has always been too old for his level. Try him out in Spring Training and at AAA and see if he can handle the highest levels.

RHP Travis Chick (25 years old): Nothing left to prove in AA, consistent K/9 rates in the mid 7's and BB/9 rates in the low 3's. Old enough to make a difference soon, young enough to be worth investing in...I'm a fan of this Chick.

RHP Hyang-Nam Choi (39 years old): Phenomenal AAA numbers in 2006 with the Indians organization and with the Dodgers organization in 2009. All I know is that 12 K/9 is something any team could use.

RHP Francisco Felix (26 years old): Very good 2009, I'm surprised the Dodgers let him go. He'll be a nice pickup for somebody.

RHP Jordan Pratt (24 years old): Tons of K's but tons of BB's. Maybe a different organization can help him straighten out his live arm.

RHP Scott Strickland (33 years old): Might be finally recovered from Tommy John surgery. Walks are a little bit up, but he looks like he can still make a difference on the ML level.

LHP Chris Capuano (31 years old): There is no guarantee Capuano will make a full recovery from his second Tommy John surgery, but 2010 will be the season where he tries. With only 9 innings of actual game pitching in the last two years, it will be tough to count on him for a lot of innings, but he's at worst an average starting pitcher when healthy.

LHP Chase Wright (27 years old): AAA depth guy/emergency 5th starter. You could do much worse with a Spring Training invitation, but also much better.

RHP Jim Ed Warden (30 years old): Somebody's got to give this guy a shot in the Majors, right? He's got nothing left to prove in the minors, and will get invited to Spring Training by somebody.

LHP Adam Bostick (27 years old): High K rate, high BB rate (broken record, I know), but maybe somebody can straighten him out!

RHP Scott Mitchinson (25 years old): The Aussie has always put up good minor league numbers, but simply has never pitched many innings or been promoted much. His 2009 wasn't great, but his peripherals held up. I see him getting a chance with somebody's AA squad this season.

RHP Humberto Sanchez (26 years old): The former top prospect hasn't thrown much since having Tommy John surgery, but the K's are still there. I don't know why any team wouldn't call his agent and line up a tryout.

RHP Jose Valdez (27 years old): BB's rose significantly in 2009, but he still pitched well. He'll stick with somebody and probably make his ML debut in 2010.

LHP Justin Hampson (29 years old): I don't know why he only threw 6 and 2/3 innings in 2009, but he pitched well in San Diego from 07-08 (well enough to be rumored in a Adam Dunn-to-the-Padres trade in 2007). I'd give him a chance.

RHP Alex Conception (25 years old): 1.13 BB/9 in 95 and 1/3 innings in 2009. Sure, he doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters, but I'll take that kind of control any day.

RHP Gary Majewski (30 years old): Remember when he, Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero were a monstrous 7th-8th-9th combination for the Nats in 2005? It's hard to say who has really fallen the most since then, as all have had a ton of injuries and very little success afterwards. Majewski looked decent in AAA this past year, putting up a 4.02 ERA. He doesn't strike out enough guys and walks too many to be a force in the majors, but he can still be a decent ML injury replacement.

RHP Oneli Perez (26 years old): Put up video game numbers for the White Sox organization in 2006 and 2007, regressed a bit in 2008 and then was solid in 2009 for the Cardinals, striking out 8.19 per 9 and walking 2.96 per 9 in 67 innings. I guess having 12 fingers makes it easier to put up beastly stats.

LHP Gustavo Chacin (29 years old): Might have "it" back. His rate stats still stink, but they aren't so different from those of his breakout 2005 season for the Blue Jays.

RHP Randy Messenger (28 years old): Continues to prove that, while he's nothing special in terms of an ML talent, he can fill in from time to time and not look completely out of place.

RHP Richard de los Santos (25 years old): I'm not sure why he got demoted back to A and high A ball in 2009, but other than a rough 15 inning stint in AAA in 2007, he has been at the very worst an average pitcher since 2006, flirting with being a pretty good one. Low K rate, but low BB rate as well. Worth a shot.

RHP Calvin Medlock (27 years old): Went from walking 32 batters in 63 innings pitched in 2008 to 16 in 82 innings pitched in 2009. If the former is the real Calvin Medlock, he's out of time. If the latter is the real Calvin Medlock, he's simply running out of time.

LHP Ian Ostlund (31 years old): Rough year in 2009 by Ian Ostlund standards, mainly because of poor luck. I still think Ostlund would be at least an average LOOGY in the majors.

LHP Charlie Manning (31 years old): An average choice at best, as this year he was under 4 BB/9 for the first time in a full season since 2006 (at any level).

RHP Sean Smith (26 years old): Very good year in 2009, but the walks still scare me. 2010 may be his last real chance to shed the AAAA label.

RHP Chad Cordero (28 years old): Can you believe he'll only be 28 in March? The Chief was a pretty darn good closer for the Nats in their first 3 years in DC but had Tommy John surgery early in the 2008 season. Bad news: he was awful in 2009 in rookie and A ball, allowing 23 hits, 15 runs and 2 homers (with a 15 K and 5 BB) in 14 and 1/3 innings. 2010 could very well be his make or break year to see if he'll recover from this surgery. I certainly hope he recovers 100%!

RHP Clint Everts (25 years old): The former 1st round pick (taken 1 pick before Greinke and 2 before Fielder) blossomed for the first time in 2009, putting together a 1.65 ERA and 10.2 K/9 (although with a scary 3.9 BB/9). He'll stick with somebody in 2010 and I bet he will make his ML debut as well.

This list took longer than expected and my work schedule has changed a little bit, so I wouldn't expect the hitters list to be finished until Tuesday or Wednesday. Enjoy!

An update on future posts

Right now, I'm feverishly working on a list: the Best Minor League Free Agents. Last year's list was a relative hit (and was featured on MLBTradeRumors.com's "Baseball Blogs Weigh In"), so I figured I'd give it another shot (keep in mind that out of my top 10 last year, only 3-Shelton, Langerhans and Martin-played in the Majors, to a tune of 150 total plate appearances and 77 innings pitched, so take my findings with a grain of salt). Right now I'm working on pitchers and have gotten through the D's (meaning I have Atlanta, Arizona, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Colorado and Detroit done). As of now, I am predicting that the pitchers post will come on Friday and the hitters post will come on Sunday. Hopefully, I'll get them out sooner, but that's the latest you can expect them.

Here is an example of what these write-ups will look like:

RHP David Pauley (26 years old): Could be the J.D. Martin of the 2009-10 minor league FA class. Has generally put up good numbers in the higher levels but has been knocked around in 9 career ML games. Young enough to be able to make a difference at some point, even though his ceiling is a 5th starter/long relief type.

Here is the list if you're anxious like me, and here are short lists from FanGraphs and The Hardball Times.

I am also working on a recap post of the preseason predictions I posted as well as the Over/Under contest from February. That post will probably come later next week.

To help you pass the time, go to Minor League Ball and discuss the Nats' preliminary prospect grades! It looks to me like John Sickels is pretty high on the Nats' system, handing out an A to Strasburg (semi-surprising, as Sickels heavily incorporates minor league numbers in his lists), B+'s to Norris (semi-surprising as well due to Norris' question marks over whether or not he'll remain behind the plate) and Storen (projectable, but I see a B+ as a guy with lights-out potential) and a B- to Burgess (awful in 2009, hasn't shown many signs of improvement). Desmond is the only one I could see as underrated, as a C+, but a year of AAA success doesn't negate 5 years of poor batting, especially for someone with a shaky glove (maybe "shaky" isn't the right word, but rather for a guy who makes a lot of errors). But these grades are preliminary as I said, so don't get too worked up over anything yet!

Nats near the rear in "Homegrown Talent" list-does it matter?

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo came out with an intriguing list last night, noting the percentage of "homegrown" players for all 30 teams in the majors ("homegrown" seems to be defined as either originally drafted or signed by their current team). As expected, the Nats are tied with the Mets and Royals for the second-worst slot, with 20% of the 25-man roster being homegrown (Houston is last with only 16%).

My question is-does it even matter? Conventional thinking says yes-"homegrown" players tend to be those who you know most about, since you've scouted them all the way up since they were drafted or signed. They're basically indentured servants for 6 years (after all of the years spent in the minors), so the money saved there is another benefit. But I wanted to see if statistics supported the assertion that homegrown players are essential to a winner. Keep in mind that the league averages hover at 35-38%.

My method-take the 13 players with the most PA's and 12 pitchers with the most IP's in the regular season from the World Series winners in the 2000's. Yes, it's an incomplete and small sample size, but it's at least a start.

2008 Philadelphia Phillies-10/25 players (40%)

2007 Boston Red Sox-8/25 players (32%) (note-a lot lower than you thought, eh?)

2006 St. Louis Cardinals-7/25 players (28%)

2005 Chicago White Sox-5/25 (20%)

2004 Boston Red Sox-3/25 (12%) (really? wow)

2003 Florida Marlins-6/25 (25%) (also shockingly low)

2002 Anaheim Angels-12/25 (48%)

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks-5/25 (20%)

2000 New York Yankees-10/25 (40%)

Average-29%

What does this prove? Nothing really. "Homegrown" is a little too subjective for my tastes-but there has to be a cut-off at some point. But the point is-sometimes your homegrown guys are what makes your entire team (2002 Angels). Sometimes your homegrown guys are your biggest pieces and you fill the rest of the team from outside sources (2000 Yankees-Posada, Jeter, Williams, Rivera, Pettite). Sometimes you use your homegrown guys and trade them for the right pieces (2004 Red Sox aren't a perfect example, but they did move Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz).

I think it is safe to conclude that homegrown talent does matter, just not always in a quantifiable way. Sometimes you just have to accept the fact that not everything can be quantified...but baseball simply isn't such a setting where people can accept that!

Down on the farm report

I know I can't do it as well as NFA, but since he's gone for a week, here are a few of my observations this year on Nats minor leaguers.

Our AAA hitting has been awful this year when you look at it on an individual basis. Of our guys with 60+ AB's, 5 have OPS's under .700, with only 3 guys above .800. Kory Casto is hitting .267/.358/.336. Justin Maxwell was hitting .230/.319/.390 before he got called up. Corey Patterson is hitting .217/.280/.283. Milledge was hitting .253/.316/.277. 

Only Ryan Langerhans, Jorge Padilla and Brad Eldred have been doing well. Langerhans, hitting .278/.403/.526, should have been called up rather than Maxwell. He's a plus fielder swinging a hot bat, and deserves another shot in the Majors this year.

Pitching in AAA is another story, with Stammen, Estrada, Clippard, Martin, Larrison, Bergmann, etc. doing well. Like FJB, I'm a big fan of JD Martin and would like to see him get a shot before the end of the year-he's 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA through 7 starts this year. Collin Balester has been a disappointment so far at 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA. His K/9 and BB/9 numbers aren't too far off of his career averages, though, so look for him to rebound soon.

Harrisburg has been average for the most part, with only Marvin Lowrance really exceeding expectations (.278/.341/.565), but nobody on the Nats' radar really doing that terrible minus Bill Rhinehart. Pitching-wise, everyone has run pretty hot or cold in AA. Zech Zinicola has a sub-1.00 ERA (although his K/BB and WHIP numbers aren't consistent with that). Ross Detwiler, Josh Wilkie, Mike O'Connor, Erik Arnesen, Jack Spradlin and Justin Jones have been between decent and awesome while Adrian Alaniz, Adam Carr, Matt Avery, Cory VanAllen and Luis Atilano have been awful.

Potomac's bats are doing alright, with Sean Rooney, Chris Marrero and Danny Espinoza all doing fairly well. Mike Burgess has been a mixed bag, but a .781 OPS is at least decent. Stephen King looks done to me. Bradley Meyers has looked excellent so far for Potomac as well as Arnesen and Jeff Mandel. Colten Willems has been less than spectacular so far.

Derek Norris is ripping Hagerstown apart with the bat, but he's just about the only one. DCSP favorite Chris Curran has slumped so far, as well as 2006-08 high-ish draft picks Marcus Jones (2008 11th rounder), Stephen Englund (2006 2nd rounder) and Steve Souza (2007 3rd rounder). Jack McGeary and Paul Demny have been hit hard so far while Brad Peacock has been decent so far.

Top 20 watch (order taken from MinorLeagueBall.com):

1) Jordan Zimmerman, RHP-decent, but not great in ML so far this year.  Rate stats are better than expected, but his BABIP is very high so far. Look for his numbers to improve as the year goes along. I'll give him a C+ so far.

2) Michael Burgess, OF-K's have come down a little bit (from 34-37% of PA's last year to 30% so far this year), but are still way too high. Counting stats haven't shown up so far in 2009, but ISO power and OBP are looking decent. Another C+.

3) Chris Marrero, 1B-BABIP much higher than the last 2 seasons, but more in line as to what it should be, so that's positive. Walks are way down so far this year, but his batting average is way up. It will be interesting to watch him as the year goes along. He gets a B for bouncing back from his injury fairly well.

4) Ross Detwiler, LHP-K's are up, BB's are down and he wasn't getting incredibly lucky in AA at the beginning of the year, so that's encouraging. Nothing negative to say so far this year, get an A because he's exceeded expectations by leaps and bounds already and it's just May!

5) Garrett Mock, RHP-Huge disappointment so far in both AAA and the majors, but who out of the bullpen hasn't been? Hopefully moving him back to the rotation will help him get his control back. He gets an F.

6) Jack McGeary, LHP-Also disappointing so far, with a lot of walks. His H/9 is encouraging, but walking almost 7 guys per 9 innings is unacceptable. McGeary gets something he'd never get at Stanford: a D.

7) Justin Maxwell, OF-Love the glove, but he's struck out in 44% of his AB's in AAA so far this year. 44%-that's crazy! Weird to see a guy with a .230 batting average and a .365 BABIP, but thats what happens when you strike out 44 times out of 100. D+ for Max.

8) Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS-No comment.

9) Destin Hood, OF-No 2009 stats so far, I'm assuming he's still at extended Spring Training.

10) Shairon Martis, RHP-He's held his own in the majors this year, although he hasn't been all that special. With almost as many BB's as K's, he won't have success for too long, but he should improve both throughout the year. One encouraging stat is that he's allowing less than 1 hit per IP. C+ for Shairon so far.

11) Rogerarvin Bernadina, OF-Broke his ankle, will be out for a long time.

12) Adrian Nieto, C-Like Hood, no 2009 stats so far.

13) Derek Norris, C-Has already matched his 2008 HR total through just 38 games. BB numbers are down and K numbers are up though, so be cautiously optimistic. Still, a .323/.415/.624 start out of a catcher is awesome. A- so far for Derek.

14) Colton Willems, RHP-ERA is up, but so are K's, while BB's are down. What we need to see is a continued improvement in K's-going from 5 K/9 to 6 is an improvement, but still not nearly what you'd like to see out of a 2006 1st rounder. C+ for a little improvement, but not enough for me.

15) Josh Smoker, LHP-Hasn't pitched in 2009 so far.

16) Marvin Lowrance, OF-BB's are down and K's are up, but he's mashing in AA. Look for him to have a year like Leonard Davis did last year...and get that joker Corey Patterson out of the AAA lineup so Lowrance can move up some more. Sleeper to join the Nats sometime this year (if the OF glut ever gets solved), A- so far this year.

17) Paul Demny, RHP-Rate stats make his 5.29 ERA through 4 starts look better. Still striking out 1 guy per inning, but has been unlucky with his BABIP and LOB%. C+.

18) J.P. Ramirez, OF-Nothing yet in 2009.

19) Tyler Clippard, RHP-Conversion to the bullpen has been a success so far, but it does look at tad lucky to this point. With K's way up and BB's around his career averages though, it is feasible that he continues to pitch well all year. An A for Tyler, please bring him to DC soon!

20) Ian Desmond, SS-On the DL right now with a broken hamate bone. Looked pretty decent through 7 games, but that's just 7 games. Grade: Incomplete.

My guesses at guys who could shoot up to the Majors this year: Langerhans, Clippard, Martin, Zinicola, Wilkie, Meyers, Arnesen, Mandel.

My guesses at guys who can come off of the 40-man this year: Atilano, Chico, pretty much anyone in the ML bullpen (specifically Tavarez/Wells), Montz, Desmond.

Draft note-USC SS Grant Green has been slipping on mock drafts and could be available for the Nats at #10. That would be awesome. Even though he had a down year this season, he's still a great all-around player who would be an excellent addition to the organization. He's worth reading about here (the context is the MVN mock draft).