Do or Die Time: Adrian Alaniz

The third member of my "Do or Die Time" series is pitcher Adrian Alaniz.

Adrian Alaniz, 25 years old (26 in March), RHP

Drafted in the 8th round in 2007, 250th overall.

2009 stats:

Vermont-SS: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 2 GS, 9 IP, 3.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9

Harrisburg-AA: 3-4, 4.76 ERA, 24 G, 10 GS, 64 1/3 IP, 9.7 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9

Total: 4-4, 4.17 ERA, 26 G, 12 GS, 73 1/3 IP, 8.8 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9

Career stats:

21-11, 3.32 ERA, 64 G, 45 GS, 261 1/3 IP, 7.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

Alaniz's 2009 season was a bit of a disappointment, after bulldozing through Vermont in 07 and holding his own in Potomac and Harrisburg in 08. The key comparison between his 08 and 09 seasons in AA look bad on the surface, as his ERA rose from 3.93 in AA in 2008 to 4.76 in 2009. And while his BB/9 and H/9 rates went up a bit, his BABIP against rose .051 between the years. There's your red flag; Alaniz went from being a relatively lucky pitcher (.267 BABIP in AA in 08) to an unlucky one (.318 in 09).

Looking at Alaniz's 2009 season on the whole does not really tell the whole story. He had a disastrous may, going 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA in 21 IP over 6 starts. After his awful May, Alaniz settled down and finished the year, pitching mostly out of the bullpen with a sparkling 1.14 ERA over 39 and 2/3 innings. Alaniz's potential probably lies in the bullpen rather than the rotation, but his career is far from over after a disappointing 09.

Major League ETA: September 2012

Links:

FanGraphs

Baseball-Reference