Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Nats/Expos recent draft history: Minaya and Bowden

Here's part 2 of my draft history research. See part 1 here. I'm going to point out here that "still with the Nationals" for the most part will refer to significant guys-ones who have a chance of being major leaguers still.

GM: Minaya
Total picks: 50
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 3-Darrell Rasner (2), Mike O'Connor* (7) and Jason Bergmann* (11)
Still with Nationals: 3-O'Connor and Bergmann, plus Clint Everts (1)
Total ML games amongst draftees: 168
A not-so-good draft. Even though this is the earliest draft that featured guys still in our organization, the Nats had busts at 5th overall as well as rounds 3-6. Insult to injury: the 6th and 7th overall players taken were Zack Greinke and Prince Fielder. That being said, using hindsight to judge a draft isn't the proper way to look at it: you're drafting 18-year-olds and hoping they develop into solid major leaguers. If Everts didn't blow his elbow out, he could have been as good as Greinke. But since he was a bust, so was the Expos' draft 2002 draft.

GM: Minaya
Total picks: 50
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 3-Chad Cordero (1), Jerry Owens* (2) and Kory Casto* (3)
Still with Nationals: 2-Casto, Luke Montz (17)
Total ML games amongst draftees: 516

This draft doesn't look terrible, but that's because of Cordero on top. Owens was dealt for Alex Escobar and Casto is simply not that good. Hopefully Kory can turn it around and Montz can follow up his successful 2008 season and make it to the majors soon (note-now that Cabrera's gone and Montz is up, I'll amend this to "make it to the majors for good soon").

GM: Minaya
Total picks: 50
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 3-Bill Bray* (1), Collin Balester* (4), Brett Campbell (34)
Still with Nationals: 4-Balester, Ian Desmond (3), Marvin Lowrance (7), Leonard Davis (8)
Total ML games amongst draftees: 149

An unimpressive draft, mainly because it happened 5 years ago and still has only produced three major leaguers, one of which actually stuck. Balester's still a good prospect, Desmond looks more like a AAAA guy (if he can even get there) and Lowrance and Davis have proved that they can destroy AA pitching but not much else. Minaya, you suck.

GM: Bowden
Total picks: 48
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 5-Ryan Zimmerman* (1), Justin Maxwell* (4), Marco Estrada (6), John Lannan* (11) and Craig Stammen* (12)
Still with Nationals: 4-Zimmerman, Maxwell, Estrada, Lannan, Stammen, Mike Daniel (7), Jack Spradlin (8) Marcus Jones (38, re-drafted in 2008)
Total ML games amongst draftees: 573

The best draft I've rated so far. Zimmerman was a no-brainer at 4th overall, but Maxwell, Lannan and Stammen were all good finds considering where they were taken. Knock Bowden all you want, but he was twice the drafter Minaya or Beattie could even dream of being.

GM: Bowden
Total picks: 52
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 0. Yup, 0.
Still with Nationals: 6-Chris Marrero (1), Colten Willems (1), Cory VanAllen (5), Zech Zinicola (6), Sean Rooney (8), Adam Carr (18).
Total ML games amongst draftees: 0

Still a young enough draft that we can't call it a "bust" per se, as Marrero, Zinicola and Rooney are all decent prospects while Gibson turned into Elijah Dukes. Give it an "incomplete" to this point, but it doesn't appear that much other than Marrero will turn out nice for the Nats.

GM: Bowden
Total picks: 53
Major Leaguers (* denotes 1 or more GP in ML or AAA in 2009): 2-Ross Detwiler* (1) and Jordan Zimmermann* (2)
Still with Nationals: 6-Detwiler, Josh Smoker (1s), Michael Burgess (1s), Zimmermann, Derek Norris (4), Brad Meyers (5), Jack McGeary (6)
Total ML games amongst draftees: 10

Every time I look at this draft, I'm more impressed. Even if it doesn't turn much up in terms of results, this was the first Expos/Nats draft in recent memory where money wasn't the main factor for who the franchise picked. Detwiler was a great pick I'm convinced, Smoker/Burgess/McGeary were all overslot guys and Zimmermann, Norris and Meyers were good finds. Maybe it's because I've viewed drafts through Minaya-tinted glasses, but Bowden wasn't a terrible drafter. Also note that this was Rizzo's first draft.

2008 is too early to judge to be honest, and there's no real way to look at it when you factor in Crow.

So, at least the Nats' drafts have been on the upturn. Hopefully we can get past last year's speedbump and get another good draft this year!

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