Thursday, February 19, 2009

2009 MLB Over/Unders

Not quite sure what route took me over to Vegas Watch, but I figured it would be fun to run a contest of sorts. Below, I'll copy Bodog's over/unders. Post in the comments your choices for every team, but with a twist: in addition to your picks for all 30 teams, select 5 "Locks." These will count twice as much (so, in essence, you can get 35 points if you pick all of them right-check my comment for reference). The winner will recieve praise and other things of no monetary value in October. If you want to make money off of this, go bet or something, but this is a family blog.

Arizona- 86.5
Atlanta- 84.5
Baltimore- 74.5
Boston- 94.5
Chicago Cubs- 94.5
Chicago White Sox- 76.5
Cincinnati- 76.5
Cleveland- 83
Colorado- 76.5
Detroit- 79.5
Florida- 75.5
Houston- 74.5
Kansas City- 75.5
LA Angels- 87.5
LA Dodgers- 84.5
Milwaukee- 85.5
Minnesota- 79.5
NY Mets- 90.5
NY Yankees- 96
Oakland- 81.5
Philadelphia- 87.5
Pittsburgh- 66.5
San Diego- 67.5
San Francisco- 77.5
Seattle- 72.5
St. Louis- 83.5
Tampa Bay- 89.5
Texas- 81.5
Toronto- 81.5
Washington- 68.5


  1. Arizona- 86.5-Over
    If I were a betting man, this is one I would definitely take.
    Atlanta- 84.5-Over
    Just by a little, though. I don't think they're a whole lot different than last year. They added some overrated pitchers but still have a large hole in their outfield.
    Baltimore- 74.5-Under
    Just think about it...Baltimore plays TB, Boston and NYY a combined 63 times (I think-doesn't everyone play in-division teams 21 times each?). Even if you go super-optimistic in those games (28-35), they'd still have to have a .475 win percentage in their other 99 games to hit 75 wins. If it were around 70 wins, I'd probably pick the over, but I think 74.5 is a for sure under.
    Boston- 94.5-Over
    They're loaded. It's always tough to pick the over when you're up in the 90s in the win column, but the Sawx make it easy to pick the over.
    Chicago Cubs- 94.5-Under
    I love my Cubbies, but I'm not expecting more than 92 wins out of them. CHONE has them at 88 and PECOTA has them at 97, so it's really a shot in the dark. They'll still win the division, though.
    Chicago White Sox- 76.5-Under
    Just a gut feeling. I'm never high on the White Sox, FWIW.
    Cincinnati- 76.5-Over
    Lots of breakout candidates. I think they'll be the Cubs' toughest challenge this year.
    Cleveland- 83-Over. One of 2 contenders in a generally weak division. I would put money on this one if I were a betting man. LOCK
    Colorado- 76.5-Over, they'll bounce back.
    Detroit- 79.5-Over, they'll bounce back and compete for the AL Central crown.
    Florida- 75.5-Under, I think they'll be a disappointment and PECOTA/CHONE seem to agree.
    Houston- 74.5-Under, they didn't get better. LOCK.
    Kansas City- 75.5-Over, but barely.
    LA Angels- 87.5-Over, but just because the AL West sucks.
    LA Dodgers- 84.5-Over.
    Milwaukee- 85.5-Under, huge disappointment candidate this year IMO. LOCK
    Minnesota- 79.5-Over, but barely.
    NY Mets- 90.5-Under. Counting on Fernando Tatis and Tim Redding, seriously?
    NY Yankees- 96-Over.
    Oakland- 81.5-Over. Might as well sell some of the farm to compete in a small/weak division.
    Philadelphia- 87.5-Under. They got hot at the right time last year, but they're one of the more overrated teams in baseball. Jayson Werth and Brad Lidge will come back to Earth and Phillies fans will be quite disappointed in them.
    Pittsburgh- 66.5-Over, just because it's silly to pick a 66-96 or under for a team in such a weak division.
    San Diego- 67.5-Over, but not by much.
    San Francisco- 77.5-Over, but still not a contender.
    Seattle- 72.5-Under, but not by much.
    St. Louis- 83.5-Over, but not by much.
    Tampa Bay- 89.5-Under. Young teams are inconsistent and I have a feeling they'll have a sophomore slump so to speak.
    Texas- 81.5-Under. Need more pitching to go .500. LOCK.
    Toronto- 81.5-Under. Lost too much to hit .500.
    Washington- 68.5-Over, LOCK.

  2. Hutch predictions...
    Anaheim (sorry, Arte): 88 - Over. No Tex, no KRod, no problem: they still own the AL West.
    Arizona: 87 - Over. The Nats weren't the only team cursed in 2008 by fate and a low tank. Moorad is leaving a pretty fair operation in place.
    Atlanta: 83 - Under. Wren's moves reek of desperation.
    Baltimore: 74 - Under. The pitching is still a jumble. MacPhail should pretty much leave it that way and keep rebuilding the system.
    Boston: 94 - Under. I'm also going "under" on the Pinstripes, but the Sawx will know who else is in the division this season. And they will miss Manny, at least on the field.
    Chi Cubs: 93 - Under, LOCK. 90 may be pushing it.
    Chi Sox: 78 - Over. Ozzie and Kenny are overdue to pull off some South Side magic. They'll stay overdue, but they won't utterly reek.
    Cincinnati: 77 - Over. Barely. In spite of Dusty Baker's ridiculous avowal to field a track team in a bandbox. Whitey Herzog is probably lovin' this, but Jocketty will hold things in check. (And it's a shame that he'll have to.)
    Cleveland: 82 - Under. But still over .500; say how-de-do to Matt LaPorta, the face of the new and improved franchise.
    Colorado: 78 - Over. The NL West is a competitive division no matter who gets Manny.
    Detroit: 79 - Under. Dead cats only bounce so high.
    Florida: 76 - Over. The Fish may be cheap but Beinfest is no bozo. (Do not, however, get me started on Fredi Gonzalez, whom I have yet to forgive for running his closer out to pile on the Nats in the 2007 Opening Day humiliation.)
    Houston: 74 - Under. Ed Wade is now Drayton's boy. They deserve one another.
    Kansas City: 75 - Under. No breakout, no train wreck -- nothing to see here, folks.
    Los Angeles: 84 - Under. If they sign Manny I might wish I could eat that, but I'm thinking Ned Colletti's picture is about to appear next to the word "hubris" in the dictionary.
    Milwaukee: 86 - Over. Doug Melvin is going to inherit the Guru mantle from Pat Gillick. (The Rogers heirs should be trying to bring Melvin home to Canada.)
    Minnesota: 81 - Over. If the bottom doesn't start to fall out.
    NY Mets: 90 - Under. But only just. Your NL East Champions, turbocharged by Philly-hate.
    NY Yanx: 93 - Under, LOCK. Spend it all, boys.
    Oakland: 81 - Under. Billy Beane will teach us yet another definition of "innovation."
    Philadelphia: 87 - Under. First in a series. Sorry, Charlie, but your boss Amaro just got cleaned by Howard.
    Pittsburgh: 68 - Over. Either Andy LaRoche or Ian Snell will rise again. Maybe both.
    San Diego: 72 - Over, LOCK. The Mooreses exit the stage, leaving DePodesta a younger and better team. (Whether or not Moorad shows Towers the door, not to hang on to DePo would be idiotic.)
    San Francisco: 77 - Under. But not so bad for a "rebuilding" team.
    Seattle: 72 - Under. Junior, we love ya, but...
    St. Louis: 82 - Under. TLR will play out the string, not contentedly.
    Tampa Bay: 88 - Under. They weren't a freak, but they're not All That. Bodog's prediction is conspicuously action-driven, and it will come down as more bettors take the under.
    Texas: 78 - Under, LOCK. Also action-driven. I just got back from the Metroplex, and they haven't put a roof on the BAA or anything.
    Toronto: 82 - Over. This could end up making me look ridiculous if Beeston or whoever can't contain Ricciardi.
    Washington: 72 - Over, LOCK. I'm going conservative on the figure, as Bowden still has a job. Even at that, the over should be a no-brainer. Bodog will survive this one, but he'll be bumping that O/U and he'll still pay out to the early takers of the under.

  3. Arizona- 86.5 - Over
    Atlanta- 84.5 - Under
    Baltimore- 74.5 - Under
    Boston- 94.5 - Under
    Chicago Cubs- 94.5 - Over
    Chicago White Sox- 76.5 - Under
    Cincinnati- 76.5 - Under
    Cleveland- 83 - Under
    Colorado- 76.5 - Over
    Detroit- 79.5 - Over
    Florida- 75.5 - Under
    Houston- 74.5 - Under
    Kansas City- 75.5 - Under
    LA Angels- 87.5 - Under
    LA Dodgers- 84.5 - Over
    Milwaukee- 85.5 - Under
    Minnesota- 79.5 - Over (LOCK)
    NY Mets- 90.5 - Under
    NY Yankees- 96 - Under
    Oakland- 81.5 - Under
    Philadelphia- 87.5 - Under
    Pittsburgh- 66.5 - Over
    San Diego- 67.5 - Over
    San Francisco- 77.5 - Over (LOCK)
    Seattle- 72.5 - Under
    St. Louis- 83.5 - Under
    Tampa Bay- 89.5 - Over (LOCK)
    Texas- 81.5 - Over
    Toronto- 81.5 - Under (LOCK)
    Washington- 68.5 - Over (LOCK)

  4. I won't bore you with the details, but I'm picking the Gnats...even if they ARE Big Fat Losers! Don't forget Sx3 today, if you have time...


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