36 Names for 25 Spots

The Nats sent OF Chris Duncan, IF Pete Orr and SP Shairon Martis to minor league camp today, leaving the Spring Training roster with 36 players: 18 pitchers, 3 catchers, 8 infielders and 7 outfielders. While a few names like Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang and Jesus Flores stick out as players who will open the season on the DL, there are still plenty of position battles left. Here are my thoughts.

PITCHERS (18 candidates for 11-12 roster spots)
RHSP Luis Atilano: A lock to be sent down. He's only pitched 3 and 1/3 innings so far, allowing 4 earned runs, 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4. He pitched okay in AA and AAA last year, but there is no reason to rush him to the majors. Verdict: not on the Opening Day roster.
RHP Miguel Batista: It all comes down to how many pitchers the Nats keep, but I see Batista competing with Livan Hernandez, J.D. Martin, Craig Stammen and Tyler Walker for the last three or four spots in the rotation. If the Nats keep 12 pitchers, I think Batista will make the team. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as a reliever.
RHRP Jason Bergmann: Not as much of a lock as we give him credit for, but in a bullpen full of guys who have underwhelmed during Spring Training, he's at least the one that we know the best. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as a reliever.
RHRP Brian Bruney: A lock for the roster. He didn't really have to pitch that well in Spring Training to make the roster, but he pitched fairly well anyways when guys like Tyler Walker who could have challenged him did not. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as a set-up man.
LHRP Sean Burnett: Burnett has been awful in Spring Training and is far from a lock to make the team. But since Jesse English is the only other lefthander in camp and has options remaining, I think Burnett wins a spot by default. While Tyler Clippard is essentially a lefthanded pitcher when you look at his splits, I think the Nats carry a real lefty as well. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as a reliever.
RHRP Matt Capps: A lock for the roster. He's been awful in Spring Training, but it's too early for the Nats to give up on a guy who they spent a nice chunk of change on this offseason. If he falters early, I wouldn't be surprised to see Riggleman go to a closer-by-committee with Capps, Bruney and Clippard involved, but Capps will start the season as the closer. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the closer.
RHRP Tyler Clippard: Was close to being a lock before Spring Training and cemented his status by being better (aka not totally sucking) than guys like Tyler Walker and Sean Burnett. Even though he's a righty, he's basically the best LOOGY we've got, with a .122 BA against, 9.59 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as a set-up man.
LHSP Ross Detwiler: With an average Spring Training, I think he would have made the roster, but he's hurt. Verdict: starts the season on the DL. Not on the Opening Day roster.
LHRP Jesse English: I think that English still being in camp shows how unsafe Sean Burnett's job is right now. English has been solid but far from spectacular and I think that that combined with his lack of experience above the AA level and the fact that Sean Burnett is out of options will put him in AAA to start the year. Verdict: not on the Opening Day roster.
RHSP Livan Hernandez: Livan has only pitched in one Spring Training game so far, but I think he'll open the year in the bigs. For me, it comes down to Hernandez, Martin and Stammen for the final two spots in the rotation, and I think that the team will send Stammen back to the minors for more seasoning. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the #5 starter.
LHSP John Lannan: Along with Marquis, Lannan is as big of a lock you can get on this staff. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the #1 starter.
RHSP Jason Marquis: A lock, even though he's been bombed in Spring Training. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the #2 starter.
RHSP J.D. Martin: Because Stammen was rushed to the Majors last year and Martin wasn't, I think the Nats will open camp with Martin as the #4 starter. Martin has pitched pretty well, with only 3 hits allowed and 0 walks in 5 innings. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the #4 starter.
RHSP Garrett Mock: Mock has thrown three more innings in Spring Training than any other Nats pitcher, which leads me to believe he's getting the longest look. While he has given up 4 homers in 14 innings, he only has handed out 1 walk. That to me is a great sign of improvement for someone who was in the 4's and 5's in BB/9 in the big leagues in 2008 and 09. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the #3 starter.
LHSP Scott Olsen: I'm sure by now you're wondering what about Scott Olsen? The truth is, I don't think he's ready to start the year in the majors. If his fastball is only at 86 mph right now, he'll get eaten alive if he starts the season in the big leagues. From what I understand, Olsen has an option left and a DL stint is also a possibility. There's no reason to rush him back to the majors just because he has a longer track record than Mock, Martin or Stammen. Verdict: starts the season on the DL. Not on the Opening Day roster.
RHSP Craig Stammen: I'm not a Craig Stammen hater, I swear. I think that he could use a little more time in AAA to fine-tune his pitching and try to bring up his K/9 rate (3.15 K/9 in AAA and 4.09 K/9 in the majors in 2009 screams uh-oh after being in the high 6's to low 8's previously). Making him into a reliever is not an option in my opinion, so I think he'll be the last cut. Mark Zuckerman thinks Stammen has the edge, but I think that ultimately the Nats will decide to send Stammen to AAA for a little more seasoning. But he's a professional blogger and I'm still amateur, so take that with a grain of salt! Verdict: not on the Opening Day roster.
RHRP Tyler Walker: While Walker has been horrendously bad in Spring Training, I think he makes the team simply because the Nats shouldn't prematurely turn any of their young starters into relievers just to get them ML experience. I think Walker is in more of a battle with Miguel Batista, Livan Hernandez and Jesse English than he is with Craig Stammen or J.D. Martin. Might as well start him in the majors and see if he can work out the tweaks. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster.
RHSP Chien-Ming Wang: Wang will be on the roster once he's healthy, but he's not yet. Verdict: starts the season on the DL. Not on the Opening Day roster.

That leaves the Nats with an Opening Day rotation of Lannan, Marquis, Mock, Martin and Hernandez, with Batista as the long reliever, Walker and Bergmann as middle relievers, Burnett as a LOOGY, Clippard and Bruney as set-up guys and Capps as the closer. If the Nats decide to break camp with 11 pitchers, I expect the final decision to rest between Hernandez, Batista and Walker, with Batista likely getting cut.

CATCHERS (2 real candidates for 2 roster spots)

With these guys, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion. Flores will start the season on the DL, Pudge will be the starter and Nieves will back him up until Flores can return.

C Jesus Flores: Hurt. Keeps looking worse rather than better. Verdict: starts the season on the DL. Not on the Opening Day roster.
C Wil Nieves: So this is why he was tendered a contract! Even though his OBP is lower than his AVG in Spring Training, he gets a spot for now. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster.
C Pudge Rodriguez: Not terribly impressive during Spring Training, but was a lock to make the team anyways. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster.

INFIELDERS (8 candidates for 6-7 roster spots)
2B/3B/SS/OF Eric Bruntlett: He can play anywhere. That's about it. He can't hit, can't get on base and has lost a step in the field. But for some reason people think he's worth a roster spot because he has a .276/.344/.517 triple slash line in 29 Spring Training AB's. I prefer to look at the 31 year old's career line of .231/.303/.330, or his 2008 season line of .217/.297/.297 or his 2009 season line of .171/.224/.238...but now that I think of it, a tiny sample size in Spring Training really should trump all of those! Verdict: Not on the Opening Day roster.
2B/SS/OF Ian Desmond: Here's my fearless prediction. If Guzman can't throw by then, Desmond will be the starter on Opening Day and will retain that role unless he seriously falters. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting SS.
1B Adam Dunn: Duh. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting 1B.
2B/3B/SS Alberto Gonzalez: He's made quite a case for himself this Spring Training, and since Alberto is out of options, I could definitely see him breaking camp with the team, but it would be a bit of a surprise. He's a much better option than Bruntlett and could be a nice platoon partner with Adam Kennedy at 2B (Gonzalez hit .397/.429/.603 vs L in 2009 and .337/.380/.429 over his career while Kennedy hit .307/.364/.438 vs R in 2009 and .285/.337/.409 over his career). I think ultimately the Nats will decide they can't afford to lose both Gonzalez and Guzman and decide at the end of Spring Training which one they really want to stick with through the full 2010 season. At the end of the day, I think he'll make the Opening Day roster because of Morse and Desmond's ability to play the outfield and Maxwell's struggles. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster.

SS Cristian Guzman: Meh. He's been lousy in Spring Training and has lingering shoulder issues, but I can't see a scenario where he's not on the Opening Day roster (unless it's the DL). If Guzman were tradeable, it would be a much different issue, but he's not. I don't think the Nats would cut him simply because if Desmond gets hurt or doesn't play well, they're stuck with Eric Bruntlett and Alberto Gonzalez at SS for the season. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster on the bench...and he won't be happy about it.
2B/3B Adam Kennedy: Already penciled in as the starting 2B. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting 2B.
1B/3B/OF Mike Morse: Played his way out of "lock" status but should still be safe to make the Opening Day roster. Morse could really help his cause by bouncing his BB% up, but he's been a league average or better hitter during all 5 of his partial ML seasons. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster on the bench.
3B Ryan Zimmerman: Duh. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting 3B.

I think that the versatility of guys like Bruntlett, Desmond, Willie Harris, Kennedy and Morse could allow the Nats to break camp with 7 "infielders" and 4 "outfielders," especially since Justin Maxwell basically played his way out of a roster spot.

OUTFIELDERS (7 candidates for 4-5 roster spots)
LF/CF Roger Bernadina: He's taking walks this spring training, but still has next to no power. Given his essentially lost season in 2009, I would be very surprised to see him make the Opening Day roster. With Nyjer Morgan and Willie Harris already locks to make the team and Willy Taveras fighting for a roster spot, Bernadina's remaining option also means he's likely on the way to Syracuse. Verdict: Not on the Opening Day roster.
2B/3B/LF/CF Willie Harris: I'm still not sold on him as a long-term RF, but I guess we'll see him there on Opening Day. He's a lock to make the team, especially after his .321/.472/.607 Spring Training. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster.
CF/RF Justin Maxwell: Why couldn't he just have a good Spring Training??? That would have made things so much easier. All he had to do was NOT hit .103/.250/.205. Off to Syracuse for Mr. Maxwell to regain confidence in his swing. Don't worry, he'll be in DC before too long. Verdict: Not on the Opening Day roster.
LF/RF Kevin Mench: "Shrek" has made a push for a roster spot, hitting .286/.333/.786 in 14 AB's (albeit a VERY small sample size). I didn't think he'd have a shot when I wrote my offseason additions post about two weeks ago, but circumstances have changed with Dukes being released. I don't think he's a long-term solution to the OF problem that the Nats have right now, but I think that he could realistically break camp with the team just because they need another righty power bat to platoon with Willie Harris. Call me crazy, but I think he can make team until Justin Maxwell straightens out his swing in AAA. This feels like picking a 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster on the bench.
LF/CF Nyjer Morgan: He's played his way out of a job. No, I'm kidding, that was just the Kevin Mench defending talking. Morgan has only played in 6 Spring Training games so far due to a pulled hamstring, but it looks like he'll return to the lineup on Thursday. Unless he hurts himself worse and starts the year on the DL, he'll be our Opening Day leadoff man. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting CF.
OF Willy Taveras: Just say no. Don't let the .350/.458/.500 triple slash through 20 AB's fool you: Taveras still can't hit, get on base or play any position besides CF better than average. He might make his way onto the team at some point, but why carry a less talented righthanded version of Nyjer Morgan whose value is solely as a platoon partner and pinch runner when you have guys like Alberto Gonzalez and Kevin Mench who could actually make the team as legitimate contenders at meaningful playing time? Verdict: Not on the Opening Day roster. PLEASE, DO IT FOR THE CHILDREN!!!!
LF/RF Josh Willingham: Remember when he was the odd man out last year? Well he's definitely in now. The Hammer has a 1.440 OPS in Spring Training so far, too. Verdict: on the Opening Day roster as the starting LF.

And here's my Opening Day starting lineup prediction:

CF Nyjer Morgan

RF Willie Harris

3B Ryan Zimmerman

1B Adam Dunn

LF Josh Willingham

SS Ian Desmond

2B Adam Kennedy

C Pudge Rodriguez

SP John Lannan